Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

ut easier to introduce differential HQ charges.As is for NSW residents but double for elsewhere and needed to be prepaid.

Double wont deter, needs to be much much higher

 

[antycbr]

Double wont deter, needs to be much much higher

Prepaid might help for when Annastasia wants to come back from Japan... Given past performance I'd want prepaid from the Queensland Government.

 

[Lynda2475]

Prepaid

Goes without saying/ prepaid should be the case now for any commercial flight arrivals, payment plans should only be for repatriation flights to Howard Springs - given these are meant to be for those suffering hardship.

 

[Lynda2475]

This is incorrect - what it did was enable checks on anyone of those few who were still out and about after hours - it was quite effective.

Curfew doesn't stop essential workers and those that cant WFH moving about, which is how the bulk of cases are seeded in homes.

It also wont necessary stop illegal gatherings, given most of these have been younger people (teenagers) who will just do so during the day, especially with no school or uni or tafe to go to.

For most having a curfew just means more crowded supermarkets during the day instead of choosing to shop at less popular times when its safer and less other customers in the store.

 

[justinbrett]

I'm pretty sure I understand the fallout of a closure to NSW.

NSW Treasurer is on record as saying he didn't want a lockdown at all, ask for JobKeeper to be re-raised (he just should have said further financial assistance) [and refused once by Federal Treasurer].

I do wonder how much is real and how much is smoke and mirrors, so I wonder how long NSW can really last (economically) under this lockdown or a stricter lockdown.

I did say in an earlier post NSW wants more assistance or can't continue with lockdown - this might be the major determinant as to whether NSW goes further and longer into a lockdown, as hoped for by other States/Territories.

Oh and the Federal Government won't be giving outbound international travel to anyone anytime soon.....need to see an enhanced/trial quarantine system in action.

But this is the point, if the financial assistance from the government isn't provided, NSW can't lockdown for much longer. There will be no choice but to open up, as other countries overseas have done.

I really do think you're underestimating the bad blood that would exist if this were to occur, both between NSW and the commonwealth for lack of support and NSW and the other states if they closed their borders.

The wheels would have fallen off and all sense of order you assume will be gone.

There is no way the commonwealth would allow this situation to occur, especially in an election year. They will be wheeling and dealing to "make lemonade" as you suggest, and if that means using NSW to restart international trade and travel, I think it would certainly be possible. It all depends on what NSW wants to do - they may not want it either. But with trade to the rest of the country strangled, we're going to need other markets.

 

[antycbr]

But this is the point, if the financial assistance from the government isn't provided, NSW can't lockdown for much longer. There will be no choice but to open up, as other countries overseas have done.

I really do think you're underestimating the bad blood that would exist if this were to occur, both between NSW and the commonwealth for lack of support and NSW and the other states if they closed their borders.

The wheels would have fallen off and all sense of order you assume will be gone.

There is no way the commonwealth would allow this situation to occur, especially in an election year. They will be wheeling and dealing to "make lemonade" as you suggest, and if that means using NSW to restart international trade and travel, I think it would certainly be possible. It all depends on what NSW wants to do - they may not want it either. But with trade to the rest of the country strangled, we're going to need other markets.

There are 47 of the 151 House of Representatives seats in NSW. Add in three for the ACT which will have to follow whatever NSW decides pretty much and that's 1/3 of the parliament.

 

[N860CR]

Isn’t 80% of the population being vaccinated the aim anyway? Most health professionals in this field who I have heard or read comments from, seem to recommend 80%+ for life to return to normal.

Then we’re in big trouble, because 80% is pretty much as unrealistic as Covid Zero

 

[serfty]

Curfew doesn't stop essential workers and those that cant WFH moving about, which is how the bulk of cases are seeded in homes.

Correct - but if people were out and about during curfew hours they could be stopped and asked for their permit. It worked pretty well.

It also wont necessary stop illegal gatherings, given most of these have been younger people (teenagers) who will just do so during the day, especially with no school or uni or tafe to go to.

Again you are correct but only in regard to 'illegal gatherings' during non-curfew hours.

For most having a curfew just means more crowded supermarkets during the day instead of choosing to shop at less popular times when its safer and less other customers in the store.

Incorrect, shopping was only permitted once per day so supermarkets were generally less crowded.

I guess you lived though the Victorian Curfew vicariously having such opinions on it.

Obviously nothing I experienced, my family, friends, neighbours and generally those in the Victorian areas where the curfew was imposed is relevant.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

But this is the point, if the financial assistance from the government isn't provided, NSW can't lockdown for much longer. There will be no choice but to open up, as other countries overseas have done.

I really do think you're underestimating the bad blood that would exist if this were to occur, both between NSW and the commonwealth for lack of support and NSW and the other states if they closed their borders.

The wheels would have fallen off and all sense of order you assume will be gone.

There is no way the commonwealth would allow this situation to occur, especially in an election year. They will be wheeling and dealing to "make lemonade" as you suggest, and if that means using NSW to restart international trade and travel, I think it would certainly be possible. It all depends on what NSW wants to do - they may not want it either. But with trade to the rest of the country strangled, we're going to need other markets.

You have indicated that you've experienced months of State border closures before so only now there would be bad blood if other States/Territories closed their borders because NSW ended lockdown too early for them......???

 

[Lynda2475]

I guess you lived though the Victorian Curfew vicariously having such opinions on it.

No i was commenting on why curfews are a useless lever to pull here in NSW now.

Sydneysiders have different attitudes to Victorians, and obviously their shopping patterns differ greatly cause if I go to my local coles at 1pm its chockers, if i got at 8pm there are maybe 5 people, much much safer.

Also looking at the exposure time since lockdown came in, it looks to be much more dangerous to be out of the home during daylight hours.

Just because something was done in Vic doesn't mean it is the best thing to do in NSW.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

No i was commenting on why curfews are a useless lever to pull here in NSW now.

Sydneysiders have different attitudes to Victorians, and obviously their shopping patterns differ greatly cause if I go to my local coles at 1pm its chockers, if i got at 8pm there are maybe 5 people, much much safer.

Just because something was done in Vic doesn't mean it is the best thing to do in NSW.

Regardless of what you think, NSW will be looking at the Vic playbook.

The million dollar question is how long NSW can endure this lockdown for.....because zero is looking unlikely and then what does that mean for Australia/National Cabinet/State decisions.

 

[Lynda2475]

McGowan spent a lot of his presser telling NSW how they should manage this outbreak, and that us naughty Sydneysiders should follow the rules the way that WA residents always do.

I seriously doubt the % of rule breakers in any state varies greatly during restricted periods. We saw unlawful gathering between large households in Melbourne in both the 2nd and 3rd lockdown, we are seeing that in the same demographic in NSW now.

Given WA have a hard border with NSW, so you wonder why he felt the need to comment at all? I doubt anyone considers McGowan an expert on how to manage Covid since he only has 2 blunt tools - slam the border shut and lockdown.

The Prime Minister said today that "those over-70 have carried the biggest burden through the pandemic, as most deaths in Australia have been older Australians. "

Whilst its true that most deaths have been in older Australians, I think most would say younger people have disproportionately carried the over all burden especially when you look at impact to study/work/career, mental health and income. And its younger Aussies who will be paying the costs for decades to come.

 

[justinbrett]

You have indicated that you've experienced months of State border closures before so only now there would be bad blood if other States/Territories closed their borders because NSW ended lockdown too early for them......???

There was bad blood last time I can assure you. But NSW had the tolerance back then, I don't think it does now.

And those comments were in relation to you suggesting NSW would keep bringing in all the stranded Australians for other states whilst being locked out ourselves. Do you not see how delusional that sounds?

Regardless of what you think, NSW will be looking at the Vic playbook.

Oh I hope you're joking, unless it's a list of what not to do.

Just because something was done in Vic doesn't mean it is the best thing to do in NSW.

This 1000%. Also what worked in Melbourne in 2020 won't necessarily work in 2021. You have to take the current health advice.

 

[Lynda2475]

Regardless of what you think, NSW will be looking at the Vic playbook.

The million dollar question is how long NSW can endure this lockdown for.....because zero is looking unlikely and then what does that mean for Australia/National Cabinet/State decisions.

Of course they looked but they have chosen to not adopt practices that don't add value in the current situation.

Gladys has stated consistently she never wants to put undue burden on residents and has actually mentioned that in relation to curfews in the last few days.

Zero has never been the NSW stated goal, the goal is suppression not elimination (not Covid zero). The pressure for the non sensical covid zero has come from other states, the assumption that NSW will just be forced along is starting to fail.

 

[justinbrett]

Of course they looked but they have chosen to not adopt the less useful items. Gladys has stated consistently she never wants to put undue burden on residents and has actually mentioned that in relation to curfews in the last few days.

Zero has never been the NSW stated goal, the goal is suppression not elimination (not Covid zero). The pressure for the non sensical covid zero has come from other states.

Let's follow the QLD playbook and mandate masks in cars for solo drivers.

They didn't have a mass outbreak so it must have worked.

 

[justinbrett]

Just a bit of perspective here, this is the Melbourne Jun 20 outbreak vs Sydney Jun 21 (just worked out they were nearly exactly 12 months apart)



The biggest difference is in Jun 2020 we weren't aiming for zero, now we are.

 

[N860CR]

The biggest factor in how we are dealing with these outbreaks is in Jun 2020 we weren't aiming for zero, now we are.

It’s interesting isn’t it. We’ve learnt a lot about the virus, had a year and a half to prepare our hospitals (and buy thousands of ventilators that are gathering dust), have more effective treatments, effective vaccines etc etc, yet our approach has become more extreme

 

[Lynda2475]

Just a bit of perspective here, this is the Melbourne Jun 20 outbreak vs Sydney Jun 21

We may not yet be seeing numbers trend down as quickly as interstate observers would like, but what that chart shows is the situations is also not rapidly accelerating as was the case in Vic last year.

Given that Delta is much more transmissible than the Wuhan strain circulating last year, the story is no where near as alarming as some want us to believe.

We are only just at the 14 days mark (1 infection cycle), and haven't yet been in lock down 2 full weeks, patience grasshoppers.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

We may not yet be seeing numbers trend down as quickly as interstate observers would like, but what that chart shows is the situations is also not rapidly accelerating as was the case in Vic last year.

Given that Delta is much more transmissible than the Wuhan strain circulating last year, the story is no where near as alarming as some want us to believe.

We are only just at the 14 days mark (1 infection cycle), and haven't yet been in lock down 2 full weeks, patience grasshoppers.

Yes we need patience, but the trend doesn't look good for this time next week when the NSW Government will decide whether to extend lockdown or not.

Don't forget to compare the similar numbers - 2020 (local cases during no lockdown) v 2021 (cases infectious while in community during a lockdown). 2020 I think Crossroads started July and probably tailed off mid September 2020 (about 13 weeks total). With this outbreak, Sydney is at week 3 (week 2 of lockdown). Let's hope Sydney doesn't have to endure another 10 weeks of lockdown.

 

[Lynda2475]

Crossroads started July and probably tailed off mid September 2020 (about 13 weeks total)

Without any lockdowns.