Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

It's really starting to sound like some Victorians want Sydney to fail.

There is definitely a strong sense of schadenfreude with some, and Stockholm syndrome with others.

But this clearly isn't heading the way of the Vic second wave.

The virus was already outside the eastern suburbs in week one, that is why when they first introduced some restrictions (wasn't a lockdown) on 7 LGAs it didn't make sense that two of those LGAs which had zero cases at that time were included whilst excluding Liverpool given they already new about the birthday party.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's really starting to sound like some Victorians want Sydney to fail.

I have said all along that NSW Health and Gladys will get on top of it. So failure is not an option.

That does not alter that where NSW is currently is at.



Analysing and recognising a problem and then working out a solution, and then further solutions if the first measure/s do not achieve the desired result is not a negative thing. It is just a process, and a necessary process. A process that I have spent 4 decades doing at a professional level..

Discussing what is occurring, is just that., though we are all invested in the outcome no matter where you live.


PS I have friends and relatives in Sydney. I have business in Sydney and each part of Australia effects the other parts and no one deserves to suffer. So with respect to your comment as it was directed at me, it is really is a nonsensical comment.

 

[sjk]

I thought this leak-type article was telling as to current mindsets:

‘Fork in the road’: Senior ministers consider letting Delta circulate in community

The NSW government is facing its most difficult decision of the pandemic with senior ministers cautiously canvassing abandoning a zero local transmission strategy and accepting the Delta strain of COVID-19 will circulate in the community.

www.smh.com.au

The current situation really is quite concerning unless viewed through the prism of NSW exceptionalism. Getting back to zero might no longer be an option, hence the need to start reassessing risk tolerance.

 

[Lynda2475]

Getting back to zero might no longer be an option, hence the need to start reassessing risk tolerance.

It was never a really an option, unless Australia becomes a true island i.e. bans all flights, shipping etc something that should never be contemplated.

Its just funny that all those drinking the covid zero cool aid are only now starting to realise they were sold a sham

 

[suze2000]

The immediate issue is how long does the Sydney lockdown go for, because its probably worse than 50/50 that NSW Health/Government can't get Delta back to zero without going to lockdown for say a total 8 weeks (and for example tightening lockdown from next week).

I agree most won't find it palatable, but the NSW Premier is already thinking further ahead about what if it can't get back to zero. Dropping hints like life won't be the same as before the lockdown; NSW Health Minister have his meanderings; etc etc

Sometimes you got to make the best of a bad situation and that's where Sydney might find itself in 2-6 weeks.

I don't understand the attitudes being posted here. Why not lockdown with the intention of getting case numbers back down to acceptable levels? Melbourne did it last year.

To my mind, it's the only way to keep the NSW in the federation. Or there really will be a situation where NSW is cut off from the rest of the country. Because even though Dan Andrews last year was adamant that Victoria would not close its borders (and did not), I think it will be different if case numbers in Sydney continue on an upward trajectory. Because after what Melbourne went through last year, and the repeated small lockdowns, Melburnians are IMO unlikely to be willing to tolerate the risks associated with keeping the borders to NSW open, and they are sick to death of lockdowns. That doesn't mean they are willing to let covid run rampant in the city though.

 

[bcworld]

44 new today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413301890658422790

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413301895490273281

 

[Lynda2475]

44 new today

Thankfully the number in ICU has reduced by 1

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I thought this leak-type article was telling as to current mindsets:

‘Fork in the road’: Senior ministers consider letting Delta circulate in community

The NSW government is facing its most difficult decision of the pandemic with senior ministers cautiously canvassing abandoning a zero local transmission strategy and accepting the Delta strain of COVID-19 will circulate in the community.

www.smh.com.au

The current situation really is quite concerning unless viewed through the prism of NSW exceptionalism. Getting back to zero might no longer be an option, hence the need to start reassessing risk tolerance.

Its also on news.com.au

It seems this point has come earlier than everyone had hoped because not enough in the community are fully vaccinated (ie 3 weeks after second dose - say about 10%) and also NSW is one of the lower vaccinated States/Territories.

So far (fingers crossed), I think no one in Australia has died from Delta but the number in ICU and ventilators is a risk and Sydney is still under 500 cases total.

A major determinant will still be can additional financial assistance be provided to NSW economy to help Sydney endure a longer/stricter lockdown. I think estimates seem to be another 2 more weeks (ie total 4 weeks of lockdown). So a conversation in National Cabinet (even perhaps today) will probably flag NSW Government's thinking.

 

[suze2000]

Which reinforces the point I made earlier today that lockdowns are more effective when done earlier. By the time the Melbourne lockdown was commenced the virus had already spread far and wide. The Victorian Gov acted way too late.

Bondi by contrast has deployed a lockdown much earlier.

Except it's not a proper lockdown, is it?

 

[bcworld]

Except it's not a proper lockdown, is it?

Restrictions are tightening...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don't understand the attitudes being posted here. Why not lockdown with the intention of getting case numbers back down to acceptable levels? Melbourne did it last year.

To my mind, it's the only way to keep the NSW in the federation. Or there really will be a situation where NSW is cut off from the rest of the country. Because even though Dan Andrews last year was adamant that Victoria would not close its borders (and did not), I think it will be different if case numbers in Sydney continue on an upward trajectory. Because after what Melbourne went through last year, and the repeated small lockdowns, Melburnians are IMO unlikely to be willing to tolerate the risks associated with keeping the borders to NSW open, and they are sick to death of lockdowns. That doesn't mean they are willing to let covid run rampant in the city though.

If the current acceptable number is zero - its not happening.

As I set out, NSW Government's position is that it is unable to financially cope with a longer/stricter lockdown.

The lockdown's effect is clear for everyone to see. The number of positive Delta cases not isolating and in the community under a lockdown (note: a proportion would probably be legally because they need to work outside the home) is keeping pace (arguably higher) than the previous outbreak in Sydney Winter 2020 (Crossroads, Thai Rock, etc). [Note the comparison is not total cases v total cases, but cases not isolating v total cases]

Sydney Winter 2020 outbreak took 10-13 weeks to tail off. So if an area is under a lockdown and the corresponding number is higher than a previous successful outbreak containment then logically you need to keep the current lockdown for a similar period to get Delta to tail off.

NSW cannot afford a 10 week lockdown as things stand. Hence NSW Government has to think of a plan B.

 

[nutwood]

I suspect that proper consideration of Covid transmission should be looking at many other factors other than lockdowns. For example, weather conditions on a few critical days could make a world of difference. Bucketing rain, everyone huddling away. Bright and sunny, everyone outside and spread out.
My feeling is that lockdowns need to be more nuanced and the principle focus should be rapidly restricting geographical spread.
Well resourced targeting of outbreak areas, with every every effort made to minimise the number of people affected could be sustainable. Locking down millions is not.

 

[jase05]

Time for some tough love Gladys. Lock the place down and that includes all businesses not deemed essential

 

[antycbr]

I think construction and non essential retail will be closed by Monday. It’s not working and we need to stop all movement.

 

[Lynda2475]

Victoria would not close its borders

They didn't during second wave, but they certainly have multiple times since - even locking out their own residents briefly during the 3rd wave.

You are also misinformed about the Sydney lockdown and what restrictions are in play. Its ok you don't get it, your not living here.

 

[bcworld]

Hence NSW Government has to think of a plan B.

The messaging today is very clear that there is no plan B.

 

[antycbr]

The messaging today is very clear that there is no plan B.

Which is why Brad Hazzard has been silenced!

 

[suze2000]

Well resourced targeting of outbreak areas, with every every effort made to minimise the number of people affected could be sustainable. Locking down millions is not.

I still don't understand this. It's been done everywhere else.

And on this point: ASKING people to stay home (as Gladys has been) is insipid and ineffective.

TELLING them to stay home and REMOVING the reasons they go out by closing retail except essential, and all social events, and gyms FFS (and ENFORCING THESE RESTRICTIONS) is the only thing that will bring numbers down to acceptable levels so people can return to their covid-normal lives (and in NSW, that's checking exposure sites, and then getting on with things, which I think we should all be hoping to get to in the future).

 

[burmans]

The messaging today is very clear that there is no plan B.

The message yesterday was Plan B was for everyone to get vaccinated. Hopefully with greater availability this will cause the vaccination program to kick along a lot faster!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Now 14000 close contact isolating in Sydney - up from 7000 yesterday.....


Edit: to add ABC article

NSW's COVID-19 lockdown restrictions will be tightened after the state recorded 44 new infections — the highest daily number recorded in the latest outbreak.

As authorities pleaded with people to comply with stay-at-home orders, it was revealed that 14,000 "close contacts" had been plunged into isolation.

That number has doubled in 24 hours — from the beginning of the current outbreak to yesterday, about 7,000 people had been directed to self isolate because they had been to a COVID-19 exposure site.

Tighter restrictions for Greater Sydney as NSW records 44 new COVID-19 cases

NSW's COVID-19 lockdown restrictions will be tightened after the state recorded 44 new infections — the highest daily number in the latest outbreak.

www.abc.net.au