Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[OATEK]

I expect that next week will see a targeted lockdown if the majority of community transmissions are in one or 2 LGAs. It seems obvious to me that the NSW Premier & Dr Chant want to see nearly all new infections coming from people in isolation. Should have a clearer picture on Monday or Tuesday.

 

[Lynda2475]

They need to get testing rates up significantly in the 3 LGAs with growing case number: Fairfield, Liverpool and Canterbury-Bankstown.

Fairfield LGA has only done a total of 1922 tests over the last 14 days.

 

[dairyfloss]

It definitely feels like a different focus for NSW, now, than it was coming through and out of the most recent Northern Beaches event.

It wasn't that long ago that we seemed to be quite ok to ignore linked cases and only really got bothered when something was a mystery. IIRC, that was also how the border levers were being pulled. I remember jumping on and changing our QLD holiday in Feb when something along these lines happened in Sydney to push it out a bit more. 'X days since the last mystery case before we'll consider opening up again' (unless we really need the revenue ).

That case type concern has shifted throughout. It went something like this:

• Overseas COVID cases
• Any COVID cases identified in the country
• Any COVID cases locally acquired (no HQ)
• Locally Acquired with no link through tracing
• Locally Acquired / Acquired in HQ, and no link through tracing
• Locally Acquired in or from HQ or HQ leak, and no link through tracing
• Locally Acquired in or from HQ or HQ leak, and no link through tracing or genomics
• Locally acquired from a backyard in Bankstown

I'm just looking forward to a time when all this is fodder for anecdotes, and little else. Hang in there, all!

Cheers,
Matt.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Without any lockdowns.

And its a fair comment to say Sydney is doing similar numbers (infectious in the community during a lockdown now) as Crossroads was without a lockdown

 

[suze2000]

I work in a school. So much to do now to get online learning in place. Especially for the youngest students

Not to downplay the work involved, but surely you weren't surprised by this, given the case numbers?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

what that chart shows is the situations is also not rapidly accelerating as was the case in Vic last year.

If you wish to compare various outbreaks, you may wish to look at the graphs below.

Vic Second Wave started 27 May. 10 LGA's Lockdown 30 June (Day 35). Greater Melbourne Lockdown 7 July (Day 42) = both actions way too slow.
Day 22 = 88 cases (not in lockdown)


NSW Bondi Outbreak started 17 June, LGA Lockdown 25 June (Day 8), Greater Sydney Lockdown 26 June (Day 9)
Currently at Day 22 = 395 cases (in lockdown) Crossroads was at 218, Avalon 195.

So despite lockdown measures being instigated much earlier in Sydney, the Bondi outbreak is outpacing the Victorian Second Wave where lockdown measures unfortunately were deployed way too late.

I think the graphs show why the language of Gladys, Hazzard and Dr Chant has been a lot stronger this outbreak, and particularly so today. Where the Bondi Outbreak currently is, is not where anyone would want an outbreak to be at and moreso where a lockdown has already been in force since June 25/26.

 

[justinbrett]

If you wish to compare various outbreaks, you may wish to look at the graphs below.

Vic Second Wave started 27 May. 10 LGA's Lockdown 30 June (Day 35). Greater Melbourne Lockdown 7 July (Day 42) = both actions way too slow.
Day 22 = 88 cases (not in lockdown)


NSW Bondi Outbreak started 17 June, LGA Lockdown 25 June (Day 8), Greater Sydney Lockdown 26 June (Day 9)
Currently at Day 22 = 395 cases (in lockdown) Crossroads was at 218, Avalon 195.

So despite lockdown measures being instigated much earlier in Sydney, the Bondi outbreak is outpacing the Victorian Second Wave where lockdown measures unfortunately were not deployed way too late.

I think the graphs show why the language of Gladys, Hazzard and Dr Chant has been a lot stronger this outbreak, and particularly so today..

View attachment 252366


View attachment 252365

Well there's some alarmist graphs right there. Sure, factual, but I'm not sure what they prove other than Sydney was a quicker outbreak to start (Delta with no real restrictions) and Melbourne took a lot longer to start up (OG Covid at a time most of the country was in a quasi-lockdown).

If you just scrolled down a little further from your source, you would have seen this graph that does the RATE of change of daily cases:


Which shows a similar outcome to what I posted before, this outbreak is remaining somewhat steady, it's not going down which is a concern but there haven't been significant increases in the numbers.

For one, if you want to compare the rate of change (what it is we are concerned about), you need a log scale if you are going to plot coughulative (so forget about your second graph, it's useless). And in the first, it shows the same story, it was quicker to start in Sydney, then started flattening out - Melbourne was the opposite, slower to start and then accelerated rapidly, well after the lockdown started.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And its a fair comment to say Sydney is doing similar numbers (infectious in the community during a lockdown now) as Crossroads was without a lockdown

Bondi is outpacing Crossroads with 395 cases (with 2 week lockdown already) to 218 cases at Day 22 (with no lockdown).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

- Melbourne was the opposite, slower to start and then accelerated rapidly, well after the lockdown started.

Which reinforces the point I made earlier today that lockdowns are more effective when done earlier. By the time the Melbourne lockdown was commenced the virus had already spread far and wide. The Victorian Gov acted way too late.

Bondi by contrast has deployed a lockdown much earlier.

 

[justinbrett]

Which reinforces the point I made earlier today that I reckon that lockdowns are more effective when done earlier. By the time the Melbourne lockdown was commenced the virus had already spread far and wide. The Victorian Gov acted way too late.

(fixed it for you)

Every outbreak is different, you have to go with the health advice, not what you reckon. The situation of Melbourne last year is nothing like Sydney this year, and as we've all been saying to you, what worked in Melbourne last year may not work in Sydney this year.

There's been plenty of examples where small outbreaks were under control. The number of daily cases of this cluster were crossroads level until the day of lockdown. You should know full well the cost of a lockdown, they should not be used lightly. How many suicides were caused by lockdowns? How many businesses destroyed, homes lost etc.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There's been plenty of examples where small outbreaks were under control.

Yes of course there are plenty of outbreaks/clusters where no lockdown were used . ie Smile Buffalo

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The situation of Melbourne last year is nothing like Sydney this year, and as we've all been saying to you, what worked in Melbourne last year may not work in Sydney this year.

Not sure why, as no where have I suggested that Sydney should do now what Melbourne did at the start of the second wave. Indeed I have indicated to not do what Victoria were doing (or not doing) back then.

 

[justinbrett]

Not sure why, as no where have I suggested that Sydney should do now what Melbourne did at the start of the second wave. Indeed I have indicated to not do what Victoria were doing (or not doing) back then.

You have made countless statements that you think the lockdown measures are not as strict as Melbourne's were and the lockdown should have started earlier.

In particular, your statement that "the Bondi outbreak is outpacing the Victorian Second Wave where lockdown measures unfortunately were not deployed way too late" is at very least misleading if not completely untrue. The PACE refers to the rate of change, and two weeks into the lockdown, the Sydney outbreak is remaining steady. Two weeks in for Melbourne, the numbers had doubled twice (60 -> ~250).

The implication that Sydney is on track for a Melbourne second wave style outbreak is just downright irresponsible and is not based on a shred of evidence.

 

[sjk]

The implication that Sydney is on track for a Melbourne second wave style outbreak is just downright irresponsible and is not based on a shred of evidence.

This claim started out stupid and will age poorly.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Bondi is outpacing Crossroads with 395 cases (with 2 week lockdown already) to 218 cases at Day 22 (with no lockdown).

You are misunderstanding me - I'm not comparing total cases of each outbreak.

The number of positive cases that are in the community while infectious under a lockdown in this current outbreak is keeping pace with positive local cases under no lockdown during Sydney Winter 2020

Why am I doing this??? Because NSW Health/Government seems to be using the lockdown to stop/control Delta spreading from household to household. NSW Health/Government clearly wasn't required to resort to lockdown last time and it eventually tailed off. This time Delta is still keeping pace despite the lockdown, so the question then seems to become - how long does the NSW Government need to extend/keep the current lockdown for?

 

[drron]

And in truth there is very little evidence that lockdowns are the best way of dealing with an outbreak.Also which elements of lockdowns may be important and which are not.Around the world things such as hospitalisations and deaths from covid do not seem to be directly related to lockdown status.The various states in the USA sees some with lockdowns do well but others poorly.sSimiliarly with States that did not embrace lockdowns some did poorly and some didn't.

A good example is Florida.It has the highest proportion and numbers of people over 65 of any State in the USA.It has the second highest numbers of people in aged care facilities.California has 25% more in care but nearly twice the population of Florida.So you would think Florida who did not lock down and lots of unmasked events such as Spring Break yet their death rate per million was no where near the highest on a per million basis.New York which did lock down had ~ 50% more deaths per million.25 states had higher deaths per million than Florida.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

So what did Florida do to get those results.
First PPE was distributed to aged care facilities in March along with hospitals and other health care workers.As in all of the USA there weren't enough supplies for everyone and some aged care facilities didn't distribute the PPE to workers.

Second when the vaccines became available Florida took over the initial distribution and went against the CDC advice and the vaccine was only for aged care residents and workers and Health care workers working with covid.The Governor asked all health administrators not to be vaccinated until their workers were vaccinated.

So unlike Australia they vaccinated the aged care workers as well as the residents.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

You have made countless statements that you think the lockdown measures are not as strict as Melbourne's were

I don't think that. Based on the restrictions as written I know that they are not as strict.

and the lockdown should have started earlier.

Yes that is correct that I believe that the lockdown to all of Greater Sydney should have started earlier. With cases already far and wide outside of the LGA's already locked down, and freedom to travel the LGA only lockdown was never going to work at the time it was implemented.

Note too that with respect to Melbourne that I was comparing it to the 2021 practices, and not the June 2020 ones which you seem to want to go back in time to.

What was done recently in Victoria terms of all the processes is very different that what was done, and not done, back in June 2020. Since October 2020 things have been markedly different in Victoria.

In particular, your statement that "the Bondi outbreak is outpacing the Victorian Second Wave where lockdown measures unfortunately were not deployed way too late" is at very least misleading if not completely untrue. The PACE refers to the rate of change, and two weeks into the lockdown, the Sydney outbreak is remaining steady. Two weeks in for Melbourne, the numbers had doubled twice (60 -> ~250).

You are confusing pace (speed, velocity) with rate of change (acceleration ). Being an engineer I will stay with how the terms are meant to be used rather than your incorrect usage.

Also I am not sure where you are getting your numbers, however from the graph which I posted and which is what I was commenting on:

Bondi = Day 7/31, Day 14:174, Day 21/357
Vic 2nd Wave = Day 7/39, Day 14/45, Day 21/83

So most clearly the Bondi Outbreak has at each time interval to date outpaced the Vic 2nd Wave.
So yes my statement is true to this point in time.
"

The implication that Sydney is on track for a Melbourne second wave style outbreak is just downright irresponsible and is not based on a shred of evidence.

LOL. What nonsense.
ie Look at the same graph and you will see that the Avalon Outbreak also outpaced the Victorian Second Wave as well on Day 22, but did not grow to be greater than the Vic Second Wave.

It even also out-accelerated the Vic Second Wave early on, before lockdown assisted in briging it under control. It is a great pity that the Vic 2nd Wave did not also have an early enough lockdown.

Appropriate action turned the situation around, and appropriate action will also turn it around this time in Sydney. The unknown is how quickly this will happen.


The implication of the graph for the Bondi Outbreak is that the situation is very serious, and that it is just not another outbreak. Or as I did state in the post:

I think the graphs show why the language of Gladys, Hazzard and Dr Chant has been a lot stronger this outbreak, and particularly so today. Where the Bondi Outbreak currently is, is not where anyone would want an outbreak to be at and moreso where a lockdown has already been in force since June 25/26.​

History indicates, including the recent history of the Delta Outbreaks outside of Australia, that strong measures and commitment will be required to flatten the curve, and that if not forthcoming then cases will rapidly grow. If you have a high vaccination rate like the UK the consequences may not be too bad, but if not the consequences could be very bad.

The future will be determined by the combined actions of NSW Health, the NSW Gov and the NSW people (or rather mainly the population in Greater Sydney). Actions can be both positive and negative in their effect.

Just because the Bondi outbreak is currently outpacing the Vic Second Wave, it does not have to stay that way. But yes it is very concerning. Based on the language used today by Gladys, Hazzard and Dr Chant they are all most concerned as well.

My take on today's NSW presser is that they want the Greater Sydney populace to not just adhere to all restrictions much better than has occurred to date, but to also follow the spirit of the restrictions such as in not making unnecessary trips, browsing at shops etc They need this to slow down the growth. Without it then most likely Dr Chant will need to make tighter restrictions in order to get the outbreak under control, or alternatively accept a longer lockdown.



And no, I do not share the view of a lot of your friends (see below), and based on what Gladys stated in the NSW Presser today where she made it very clear that this was not a tenable option without a high vaccination rate (Which NSW certainly does not yet have). So I do not expect NSW to go down that path anytime soon.

I've spoken to a lot of friends in NSW recently and the brutal truth is I think a lot of people support the open up and let it ride approach. If it means closure to the rest of Australia so be it, but that could be offset by being open to UK, Europe & the US.

If your friend's open and up and let it ride approach was adopted in the near term then things would get very ugly.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So unlike Australia they vaccinated the aged care workers as well as the residents.

All the Victorian Government managed aged care facilities were vaccinated by the state and not by the Federally administered program which had the responsibility for aged residential care. At all of the Victorian Government facilities they also vaccinated all of the staff (well at least nearly all as I assume there would have been some gaps due to illness etc, though they may well all have been all caught up on by now).

I never understood why the Federal Scheme did not also address the staff. Now yes, it would have taken more effort as staff work in shifts 24/7 and so for staff you would need most likely several vaccination days to cover all the workforce. But as a priority group the effort should have been made. Plus given many are lowly paid and without sick leave probably some form of paid incentive should have been provided..

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Breakdown of NSW Cases:





You can also see it by LGA at COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - Locally acquired COVID-19 cases and tests in the last four weeks - up to 8pm 7 July 2021

 

[justinbrett]

I don't think that. Based on the restrictions as written I know that they are not as strict.




Yes that is correct that I believe that the lockdown to all of Greater Sydney should have started earlier. With cases already far and wide outside of the LGA's already locked down, and freedom to travel the LGA only lockdown was never going to work at the time it was implemented.

Note too that with respect to Melbourne that I was comparing it to the 2021 practices, and not the June 2020 ones which you seem to want to go back in time to.

What was done recently in Victoria terms of all the processes is very different that what was done, and not done, back in June 2020. Since October 2020 things have been markedly different in Victoria.



You are confusing pace (speed, velocity) with rate of change (acceleration ). Being an engineer I will stay with how the terms are meant to be used rather than your incorrect usage.

Also I am not sure where you are getting your numbers, however from the graph which I posted and which is what I was commenting on:

Bondi = Day 7/31, Day 14:174, Day 21/357
Vic 2nd Wave = Day 7/39, Day 14/45, Day 21/83

So most clearly the Bondi Outbreak has at each time interval to date outpaced the Vic 2nd Wave.
So yes my statement is true to this point in time.
"




LOL. What nonsense.
ie Look at the same graph and you will see that the Avalon Outbreak also outpaced the Victorian Second Wave as well on Day 22, but did not grow to be greater than the Vic Second Wave.

It even also out-accelerated the Vic Second Wave early on, before lockdown assisted in briging it under control. It is a great pity that the Vic 2nd Wave did not also have an early enough lockdown.

Appropriate action turned the situation around, and appropriate action will also turn it around this time in Sydney. The unknown is how quickly this will happen.


The implication of the graph for the Bondi Outbreak is that the situation is very serious, and that it is just not another outbreak. Or as I did state in the post:

I think the graphs show why the language of Gladys, Hazzard and Dr Chant has been a lot stronger this outbreak, and particularly so today. Where the Bondi Outbreak currently is, is not where anyone would want an outbreak to be at and moreso where a lockdown has already been in force since June 25/26.​

History indicates, including the recent history of the Delta Outbreaks outside of Australia, that strong measures and commitment will be required to flatten the curve, and that if not forthcoming then cases will rapidly grow. If you have a high vaccination rate like the UK the consequences may not be too bad, but if not the consequences could be very bad.

The future will be determined by the combined actions of NSW Health, the NSW Gov and the NSW people (or rather mainly the population in Greater Sydney). Actions can be both positive and negative in their effect.

Just because the Bondi outbreak is currently outpacing the Vic Second Wave, it does not have to stay that way. But yes it is very concerning. Based on the language used today by Gladys, Hazzard and Dr Chant they are all most concerned as well.

My take on today's NSW presser is that they want the Greater Sydney populace to not just adhere to all restrictions much better than has occurred to date, but to also follow the spirit of the restrictions such as in not making unnecessary trips, browsing at shops etc They need this to slow down the growth. Without it then most likely Dr Chant will need to make tighter restrictions in order to get the outbreak under control, or alternatively accept a longer lockdown.



And no, I do not share the view of a lot of your friends (see below), and based on what Gladys stated in the NSW Presser today where she made it very clear that this was not a tenable option without a high vaccination rate (Which NSW certainly does not yet have). So I do not expect NSW to go down that path anytime soon.

If your friend's open and up and let it ride approach was adopted in the near term then things would get very ugly.

Note too that with respect to Melbourne that I was comparing it to the 2021 practices, and not the June 2020 ones which you seem to want to go back in time to
This all started because I posted a graph showing that the daily case numbers in Sydney is not increasing, unlike Melbourne 2020, so we are not headed for a catastrophe as you and a lot of the media are suggesting. I'm not comparing Sydney with any other lockdown because I don't think any of them are notable.

You are confusing pace (speed, velocity) with rate of change (acceleration )
Virus outbreaks are usually measured by how fast they spread, as you are an engineer, you will know that when you measure the speed at which something increases, that is indeed acceleration. If you are measuring the static rate at which the coughulative case numbers increase fine but that's not a very useful metric. There's a reason why most covid charts use a logarithmic scale.

Also I am not sure where you are getting your numbers, however from the graph which I posted and which is what I was commenting on:
I'm comparing lockdown day zero from both outbreaks, not from the first case. The point being that even after 14 days of lockdown, Melbourne still had cases doubling. Sydney has not seen that, it has remained steady. My last graph was the same source as yours, but I guess you didn't select this one as it didn't fit your narrative.

Look at the same graph and you will see that the Avalon Outbreak also outpaced the Victorian Second Wave as well on Day 22, but did not grow to be greater than the Vic Second Wave.
We've established the different speeds in which the outbreaks started. Measuring from the first case is not incredibly useful. One outbreak could have a superspreader event on day one, another could just transmit slowly for a month until a superspreader event occurs.

that strong measures and commitment will be required to flatten the curve
The curve is literally a straight line. It doesn't get any flatter.

They need this to slow down the growth
Ooohh... aka deceleration! I should be an engineer!

Where the Bondi Outbreak currently is, is not where anyone would want an outbreak to be at and moreso where a lockdown has already been in force since June 25/26.oreso where a lockdown has already been in force since June 25/26
Hence why I compared lockdown day 0 graphs. It's much more meaningful. We are not headed for the same fate as Melbourne because the daily cases numbers are staying roughly the same, even after two weeks. Melbourne was quite the opposite.

It's really starting to sound like some Victorians want Sydney to fail.