Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[p--and--t]

People accept that - what they don’t accept is people working after they have tested positive (which happened recently in Melbourne).

Disgraceful and I hope they are/have been fined. Millions of people locked up in their houses for months and a few ........ wreck it for everyone.

 

[jakeseven7]

People accept that - what they don’t accept is people working after they have tested positive (which happened recently in Melbourne).

People have not quite wrapped their heads around the actual unstoppable spread of the virus though and the reactions thus far confirm this.

 

[OZDUCK]

That seems quite a few less than some might have forecast. Will be interesting to see if any more by day 11 or whenever SA do the "exit" test (Vic should be doing this as well). Some of the stories out of India seem dire, but then again media "bad news sells" hype maybe.

The "Indian" charter flights into Perth seemed to generate about 4 - 6 positives out of a flight so it actually appears to be in the 'ballpark' to me.

 

[Gremlin]

ACT Health have extended a Do Not Travel warning from simply the Melbourne hotspots to Greater Melbourne.

Also, a spot on the radio was talking about the economic impacts of "suppression versus elimination" strategies and the impact on tourism. One of the big things they talked about was that whilst suppression should lead to the opening up of some forms of domestic tourism again (subject to the next hotspot not being Surfers Paradise, Cairns or Thredbo in which case all bets are off), that the economic downsides of suppression, and its impact on tourism, shouldn't be ignored. In particular, suppression means that you're unlikely to see sports stadiums at anywhere near capacity, theatre, concerts and festivals won't exist, nightclubs, pubs and clubs and restaurants won't operate at capacity, and mass transit is unable to operate effectively. They made a point that these limitations themselves will also "suppress" large chunks of domestic tourism.

They talked about Melbourne as an example and the events it would typically host. Limited crowds at the Melbourne Cup Carnival (300,000), no prospect of an MCG at capacity (100,000), Melbourne International Comedy Festival (775,000), Grand Prix (325,000), Moto GP (85,000), Australian Open (800,000), Royal Melbourne Show (450,000), Melbourne International Film Festival (185,000). They also mentioned several music festivals, ongoing theatre events and large scale concerts and quoted a Griffith Uni study that suggested something like 40% of domestic tourism was linked to attending an event. Without such events, or with them substantially limited in terms of attendances, there is a significant reduction in the demand for domestic tourism. And that's locked in with a suppression strategy.

Hence, advocating a push for elimination given most states are already there, in order to fast track the re-establishment of tourism. It wasn't a perspective I'd appreciated before - in fact, exactly the opposite of what I thought would be optimal for tourism in isolation from other industries - and it's given me pause to think...

 

[Pushka]

That seems quite a few less than some might have forecast. Will be interesting to see if any more by day 11 or whenever SA do the "exit" test (Vic should be doing this as well). Some of the stories out of India seem dire, but then again media "bad news sells" hype maybe.

Very early days....They did think 25 or so based on Indian statistics but I did see many people who didnt appear to be of Indian origin on the flight so likely it is a round up of lost travellers from around the world.

Post automatically merged: Jun 29, 2020

Disgraceful and I hope they are/have been fined. Millions of people locked up in their houses for months and a few ........ wreck it for everyone.

You know what? That may be part of the problem if they arent and I do wonder if they weren't,

 

[jakeseven7]

Also, a spot on the radio was talking about the economic impacts of "suppression versus elimination" strategies

Out of interest what radio program thinks elimination is even possible and a strategy?

Hence, advocating a push for elimination given most states are already there, in order to fast track the re-establishment of tourism. It wasn't a perspective I'd appreciated before - in fact, exactly the opposite of what I thought would be optimal for tourism in isolation from other industries - and it's given me pause to think...

Elimination simply is not possible. There is absolutely zero support for it from anyone in the medical community - why? Because they know it is not possible. It is too far gone now. For everyone. The virus is just too contagious and has asymptotic carriers at incredibly high rates. It also is incredibly mild to an overwhelming number of people who contract it, so tracking it is near impossible.

Cue NZ. Cue ANY opening of international borders, one tiny slip in quarantine intentional or not which WILL happen and you are back to ground zero, again. But you have finished off your economy in the process.

 

[RooFlyer]

This will be paywalled, but worth Googling the headline to see if you can get the whole story. From Professor Mirko Bagaric, Swinburne Law School.

Coronavirus: Victoria can’t blame bad luck for coronavirus failures

A sample:

All Australians see inconsistency as the badge of unfairness. Victorians were fined for playing tennis (which authorities seemed not to accept is a non-contact sport played on 200sq m of land with a physical barrier between opponents) and yet they could queue endlessly for a morning coffee. And no one missed the message when protesters gathered for a Black Lives Matter rally in Melbourne. “I’m not going to the protest,” Andrews said. “I would suggest to other people they shouldn’t go to the protest either.” Many thousands did. None was fined. The protesters were well-intentioned but the wider community is not always good at distinguishing between important social causes and behaviour that is driven by less pressing community and individual needs and interests.

To be effective, laws must be proportionate and adapted to achieve their objective, and enforced consistently and transparently. Criminalising conduct alone will not change our behaviour or attitudes.

 

[dajop]

One thing, all is not lost yet. South Korea has managed these sort of spikes from time to time and got on top of them. But they also seem extremely swift at locking down segments, and triggering community action. A week in, and the idea of locking down hotspots seems to be a bridge too far for anyone to make that decision. Or perhaps the Vic government already knows it's too late for that.

 

[RooFlyer]

I don't get it. Why wouldn't WA, SA, QLD , TAS & NT just all agree to open mutual borders and put 14 days quarantine on arrivals from Victorians.

Can't any of them think out of the box than "all or nothing"?

Yes, its called 'Vicxit': (With apologies to BC20 and others!)

https://twitter.com/hashtag/vicxit?lang=en

(This may be the first time i have found Twitter useful )

 

[jakeseven7]

The whole economy is in free fall and about to get a whole lot worse in September over Premiers getting a metaphorical high on fear factor over a fully expected and anticipated, and planned for, and resourced for, outbreak in a few suburbs in one state.

Many businesses won't make it to September even with the huge cash splash.

Another large victim gone, add it to the pile of bodies stacking up in retail. Shopping malls are going to look increasingly sparse.

Bikini icon Seafolly dives into voluntary administration

www.9news.com.au

 

[Must...Fly!]

Out of interest what radio program thinks elimination is even possible and a strategy?



Elimination simply is not possible. There is absolutely zero support for it from anyone in the medical community - why? Because they know it is not possible. It is too far gone now. For everyone. The virus is just too contagious and has asymptotic carriers at incredibly high rates. It also is incredibly mild to an overwhelming number of people who contract it, so tracking it is near impossible.

Cue NZ. Cue ANY opening of international borders, one tiny slip in quarantine intentional or not which WILL happen and you are back to ground zero, again. But you have finished off your economy in the process.

I broadly agree.

What we need most is strong planning and strong governments who have the right public messaging to inspire confidence in their decisions & advice.

I would say the WA State government has been relatively good in that, as has SA. Excusing the alarmist nature of some commentary relating to Victoria, they have done well in keeping things under control, appearing to be in control and also now opening up their local economies. My family & friends in Perth report that things are basically back to normal in day to day life there.

I am living in Melbourne (CBD) and on my daily walk I have seen more people out and about this weekend than since I returned from overseas in early March. Including in bars and restaurants, particularly along Southbank. Traffic levels are back to pretty much pre-covid, but public transport use has taken a hit (which one can understand).

The most distressing thing about all of this for me is that I was used to traveling to Perth often to spend time with my family, but for now that is off the table for several more months as I cannot gain entry. But I also feel very heavily for those working in WA who are unable to come back to their partners & children in the eastern states (particularly Victoria), not for fear of going home but out of fear of not being able to get back in to WA & get back to work. Thus, their only option is pretty much to live on the other side of the country until further notice.

 

[Flying mermaid]

People have not quite wrapped their heads around the actual unstoppable spread of the virus though and the reactions thus far confirm this.

There is a big difference between small outbreaks (which are expected) and ones spiralling out of control. Hopefully not too late to suppress this one. Unless you are so pessimistic you expect us to end up like the USA?

 

[p--and--t]

Security sure did not mingle with the travellers.

Mingling might just be the polite term. From unsubstantiated rumours, if true, one or more guards were "having it off" with one of their quarantined guests. That is not lack of training or a government health slip-up - that is pure selfish criminal idiocy.

 

[Pushka]

Mingling might just be the polite term. From unsubstantiated rumours one or more guards were "having it off" with one of their quarantined guests. That is not lack of training or a government health slip-up - that is pure selfish criminal idiocy.

I was being very discreet. But did they suffer any consequences? Not that we've heard in fact all we have heard is excuses from Dan and rebuttal of any deliberate activity. And therein lies the problem.

Aderns take is interesting. Make of this what you will:

This was in response to a NZ bubble. A little naive if she thinks some Australian states should open to NZ but not to each other. Nothing to gain there.

"Ultimately it’s up to Australia to decide whether or not they’ll go for a whole of country approach, or a state-by-state approach,” she said.

“Obviously where there is community outbreak that is a no-go for New Zealand.

“Where they have border controls in place and where they’ve had no community transmissions for sustained periods of time that may be a different scenario.”

 

[Must...Fly!]

Mingling might just be the polite term. From unsubstantiated rumours, if true, one or more guards were "having it off" with one of their quarantined guests. That is not lack of training or a government health slip-up - that is pure selfish criminal idiocy.

I walked past one of the quarantine hotels about 10 days ago. 6 security guards were standing out the front having a chat, no distancing or PPE in sight at all. Another came out of the hotel and joined them.

Now, they may have just been external security and had nothing to do with being on the floors monitoring guests, but I wouldn't think that particularly likely. Really to me it just highlighted the absolute weakness of having private security contractors who are mostly used to walking around footy stadiums now being essentially responsible for infectious disease control in confined areas during a pandemic.

No wonder it hasn't gone well...

 

[jakeseven7]

There is a big difference between small outbreaks (which are expected) and ones spiralling out of control. Hopefully not too late to suppress this one. Unless you are so pessimistic you expect us to end up like the USA?

Why would we end up like the US? They have had a patchwork response, an incredibly slow one at that, minimal leadership (confusing at the very best) and a population who mostly has decided not to care. Australia has been pretty coherent in comparison.

My partner is a healthcare professional and I guess I am more of a realist and understand just how easy it is to pass this virus on which leads me to the conclusion its spread further than any of our testing is picking up. I'm not a pessimist - people just need to understand that in most cases this virus is presenting with negligible symptoms and is overwhelmingly mild. There is absolutely though a cohort of our population that needs to be protected. So protect them as a priority. The rest of us - we get on and work to pay for that protection, live with the virus as best we can without crippling our society.

I feel we've completely lost sight of the 'next step' or medium to longer term thinking around how we manage this, based on the breathless reporting and hysterical reactions by some to date. I also think this won't change until unfortunately people are hurt more economically and closer to home of the powers that make the decisions...

 

[jakeseven7]

“Obviously where there is community outbreak that is a no-go for New Zealand.

“Where they have border controls in place and where they’ve had no community transmissions for sustained periods of time that may be a different scenario.”

I can therefore confidently predict if this is truly is their criteria, the travel bubble will never eventuate. Period. Stop wasting time discussing it and cut NZ loose, get some time back in your diary

Its almost as bad as the QLD CHO/MO saying we'd need to see two full cycles of zero transmission (28 days to be clear) to allow a state to travel here. Ok sure thing Jan. Cremate the Gold Coast on your way out

 

[Pushka]

I feel we've completely lost sight of the 'next step' or medium to longer term thinking around how we manage this, based on the breathless reporting and hysterical reactions by some to date. I also think this won't change until unfortunately people are hurt more economically and closer to home of the powers that make the decisions..

Agree with all of your post but The Next Step got lost when states started recording days of Zero new positives. Then the dialogue changed from management of health systems to cope, to elimination. At least, at least in SA the dialogue is reverting back to management but a great number of people are stuck under the doona.

 

[jakeseven7]

I walked past one of the quarantine hotels about 10 days ago. 6 security guards were standing out the front having a chat, no distancing or PPE in sight at all. Another came out of the hotel and joined them.

Now, they may have just been external security and had nothing to do with being on the floors monitoring guests, but I wouldn't think that particularly likely. Really to me it just highlighted the absolute weakness of having private security contractors who are mostly used to walking around footy stadiums now being essentially responsible for infectious disease control in confined areas during a pandemic.

No wonder it hasn't gone well...

When you reported it, what did the authorities say out of interest? Who did you report it to? The Police assistance line? - that is what they have been saying the public should do.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Why would we end up like the US? They have had a patchwork response, an incredibly slow one at that, minimal leadership (confusing at the very best) and a population who mostly has decided not to care. Australia has been pretty coherent in comparison.

My partner is a healthcare professional and I guess I am more of a realist and understand just how easy it is to pass this virus on which leads me to the conclusion its spread further than any of our testing is picking up. I'm not a pessimist - people just need to understand that in most cases this virus is presenting with negligible symptoms and is overwhelmingly mild. There is absolutely though a cohort of our population that needs to be protected. So protect them as a priority. The rest of us - we get on and work to pay for that protection, live with the virus as best we can without crippling our society.

I feel we've completely lost sight of the 'next step' or medium to longer term thinking around how we manage this, based on the breathless reporting and hysterical reactions by some to date. I also think this won't change until unfortunately people are hurt more economically and closer to home of the powers that make the decisions...

And my daughter is a doctor I think I must be naturally more optimistic. You certainly come across as pretty pessimistic. I see no reason why the suppression strategy can’t work and why we have to have the sort of inexorable spread you seem to be touting, rather than small hotspots which can be squashed. It does require quick intervention and Victoria seemed to sit on their hands far too long,

When Sydney had similar problems (Bondi and Western Suburbs) they immediately set up pop up clinics and really blitzed the areas

I have been hurt - for the first time in 40 years I am experiencing the horrors of no income and having to budget every cent we spend. .

Anyway we might need to agree to disagree on this - can’t stand social media arguments