Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

Agree with all of your post but The Next Step got lost when states started recording days of Zero new positives. Then the dialogue changed from management of health systems to cope, to elimination. At least, at least in SA the dialogue is reverting back to management but a great number of people are stuck under the doona.

Agree and its because the states simply aren't equipped to deal with this sort of sophisticated problem solving. And also - they aren't paying for this enough - YET. The federal government is. It is only a matter of time before this catches up with the states though, its just a bit sad they can't seem to see it coming like a bullet train down the tracks towards us. Yet. Once their constituents start feeling it in high enough numbers they will feel it.

 

[Pushka]

Once their constituents start feeling it in high enough numbers they will feel it.

People with their own businesses can see it clearly.

 

[jakeseven7]

And my daughter is a doctor I think I must be naturally more optimistic. You certainly come across as pretty pessimistic. I see no reason why the suppression strategy can’t work and why we have to have the sort of inexorable spread you seem to be touting, rather than small hotspots which can be squashed. It does require quick intervention and Victoria seemed to sit on their hands far too long,

When Sydney had similar problems (Bondi and Western Suburbs) they immediately set up pop up clinics and really blitzed the areas

I have been hurt - for the first time in 40 years I am experiencing the horrors of no income and having to budget every cent we spend. .

Anyway we might need to agree to disagree on this - can’t stand social media arguments

No problems and no argument, simply two alternative views of a situation You certainly come across a little detached from the epidemiology of how easily the virus spreads and the current testing rates and protocols, but neither of us can be proven wrong and neither of us can be proven right ! Only time will tell. Lets check back in 12 months

 

[Pushka]

Another BLM march in Adelaide this Saturday. I guess as restrictions are now pretty much lifted then no reason it can't.

 

[jakeseven7]

People with their own businesses can see it clearly.

That is right because they are very close to the pulse of what is really happening. Especially those with broad customer bases get a really good feel for what is going on.

I'm terrified from what I'm hearing and seeing. Absolutely terrified. Every day I grow more scared of what is going to happen to our society through the damage we are inflicting on the economy and every day I become less terrified of the actual virus itself, just its non-health side effects.

 

[tgh]

Business is patchy though, some are raking it in.
I can't find a builder for some reno work, they all have 6>8 month waiting lists here in Q

 

[jase05]

Business is patchy though, some are raking it in.
I can't find a builder for some reno work, they all have 6>8 month waiting lists here in Q

Yep, definitely some are benefiting. We have been lucky in that both myself and my wife’s work are booming and busier than ever so with no travel we can squirrel money away. The son is a chippie and he has enough work for the next 2 years and have just put on another dozen workers. But equally there are families I know where everyone in the household has lost their jobs.

 

[Austman]

I'm terrified from what I'm hearing and seeing. Absolutely terrified. Every day I grow more scared of what is going to happen to our society through the damage we are inflicting on the economy and every day I become less terrified of the actual virus itself, just its non-health side effects.

Is it the Swedish handling of COVID-19 that Australia should be following?

Because that seems to have been a health expert driven recommendation that was very much taking their economy into consideration. For a country of less than half the population of Australia it's recorded a much higher number of cases and deaths (over 65,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths).

Or is it too soon to know?

 

[blackcat20]

Lets also be very clear, yes there have been some idiots, but equally this virus is unstoppable because the levels of asymptomatic infection are so so high and the effect on younger, fitter, non vulnerable people is so overwhelmingly mild.

Many of the 'spreaders' have been completely oblivious. Which is why slowly people will come to realise it has spread alot further than we think.

People accept that - what they don’t accept is people working after they have tested positive (which happened recently in Melbourne).

If people had maintained social distancing like they are required too, it probably wouldn’t have spread as much. Regardless of whether they knew they had it.

 

[RooFlyer]

Is it the Swedish handling of COVID-19 that Australia should be following?

Because that seems to have been a health expert driven recommendation that was very much taking their economy into consideration.

Or is it too soon to know?

As they say, it ain't over till its over, but I don't think anyone is looking to Sweden for a model, right now. Note not just the shape, but the scale on the left:



It wasn't so much an economic-driven thing, but a smug conceit about the nature of their population. This was written by a Swedish journalist:

There was a real sense of exceptionalism: that we were different from other countries. The French, several people told me, might have to be forced to stay home, but we were obedient people who could be trusted to do as we were told.

It was exactly the kind of smug, self-righteous Swedish attitude that sends our neighbours mad. For a lot of Danes and Norwegians, the most populous country in Scandinavia is arrogant, inflexible and obsessed with its own superiority.

Sometimes, it’s hard not to agree with this criticism — particularly when, in Stockholm a couple of weeks after we were entrusted to make the right choices, I saw bars packed with sweaty, gleeful people celebrating the arrival of spring with buckets of prosecco.

So when things started going wrong, it was a genuine shock for many. The death rate began to climb steadily, then very fast, eclipsing Denmark and Norway as the virus wormed its way into our nursing homes. Claims by Swedish officials that we would hit herd immunity by summer turned out to be complete fantasy. People around the world lampooned Swedish policies. Denmark and Norway closed their borders to us; then Greece, the Czech Republic and others did so.

 

[jakeseven7]

Is it the Swedish handling of COVID-19 that Australia should be following?

Because that seems to have been a health expert driven recommendation that was very much taking their economy into consideration.

Or is it too soon to know?

I don't know much about the Swedish response, but what they have self admitted in the media is that they failed/forgot to protect their vulnerable population adequately enough early on and saw some tragic consequences because of that. Perhaps if they had done that - their response would be one the world would be looking at more seriously.

If people had maintained social distancing like they are required too, it probably wouldn’t have spread as much. Regardless of whether they knew they had it.

Sure, maybe. Is that really practical though of a large population? I don't know... It only takes literally one person to slip. Our population now is clearly fatigued now so I wonder if it is even possible for even 80% socially distancing effectiveness now...

 

[Austman]

As they say, it ain't over till its over
...
It wasn't so much an economic-driven thing

Indeed. But there really was a strong belief that their approach was the right approach for their economy too. They were really considering that. And things stayed mostly open. There was no real lock down etc.

I guess we'll see.

 

[N860CR]

I don't know much about the Swedish response, but what they have self admitted in the media is that they failed/forgot to protect their vulnerable population adequately enough early on and saw some tragic consequences because of that. Perhaps if they had done that - their response would be one the world would be looking at more seriously.

I believe history will show that the correct response would have been to just lockdown the vulnerable and not stop the country from operating. Frustratingly, no country really managed that. I’ve already submitted my application for head of the UN in the hope that I’m proven correct

I heard a report on BBC today that suggests testing in Europe and the US is revealing approx 10% are showing antibodies. This would suggest the infection rate across the population there of about 1bil is roughly 100mil. The vast majority have, obviously, gone undetected. This seems fairly logical given the rapid rate of spread.

 

[moa999]

The vast majority have, obviously, gone undetected. This seems fairly logical given the rapid rate of spread.

Not a surprise given most people in the US/UK don't have access to a test unless they are really sick.

But our numbers are obviously far lower as testing shows. Even Victoria the last few days is only 0.1-0.2%

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I walked past one of the quarantine hotels about 10 days ago. 6 security guards were standing out the front having a chat, no distancing or PPE in sight at all. Another came out of the hotel and joined them.

Now, they may have just been external security and had nothing to do with being on the floors monitoring guests, but I wouldn't think that particularly likely. Really to me it just highlighted the absolute weakness of having private security contractors who are mostly used to walking around footy stadiums now being essentially responsible for infectious disease control in confined areas during a pandemic.

No wonder it hasn't gone well...

The Vic Gov has confirmed that the guards were smoking together AND also carpooling to work together!

It was never a good idea to task poorly trained and poorly discipline people with this task. It was even stupider to not have onsite an appropriate supervisor.

 

[drron]

But the USA is testing between 400K and 900K per day.So on 26/6 the US tested 3.07/1000 population.On 27/6 1.78/1000.
On 28/6 Australia was at 1.69/1000

Daily COVID-19 tests per 1,000 people

7-day rolling average. Comparisons across countries are affected by differences in testing policies and reporting methods.

ourworldindata.org

But despite the rapidly escalating case numbers the number of deaths per day is dropping.

United States: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile

United States: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?

ourworldindata.org

 

[Princess Fiona]

But the USA is testing between 400K and 900K per day.So on 26/6 the US tested 3.07/1000 population.On 27/6 1.78/1000.
On 28/6 Australia was at 1.69/1000

Daily COVID-19 tests per 1,000 people

7-day rolling average. Comparisons across countries are affected by differences in testing policies and reporting methods.

ourworldindata.org

But despite the rapidly escalating case numbers the number of deaths per day is dropping.

View attachment 221423

United States: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile

United States: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?

ourworldindata.org

I don’t know if you are on the USA Dr Covid groups but the stuff coming out of Texas right now isn’t pretty. If it continues it won’t be long before it’s New York all over again

 

[jakeseven7]

I don’t know if you are on the USA Dr Covid groups but the stuff coming out of Texas right now isn’t pretty. If it continues it won’t be long before it’s New York all over again

Is that really surprising being the second highest state by population with one of the highest prevalence rates of diabetes which has clearly been identified as highly vulnerable cohort for Covid complications? Plus of course their reluctance to follow any sort of health guidance re: distancing etc

 

[trevella]

guess we'll see.

If it continues it won’t be long before it’s New York all over again

If it continues, yes. If not, more evidence that a lot of the initial epidemiological modelling was out by orders of magnitude.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Are the declines in deaths perhaps because the vulnerable are taking action and protecting themselves now the impact of the virus in particular age/health profiles has become clearer? Or that the virus is weakening as it spreads?

Neither. Will have to wait and see for now.