Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[nutwood]

Agreed
1:200 dying from Covid in current Sydney outbreak
1:1000000 from TTS after AZ Vaccine.

I'm not sure this is a valid argument. You have not factored in the probability of getting Covid in the first place. 200 a day, out of a population of 5 million? OT I know, so won't pursue the point!

 

[I love to travel]

But the odds are the overwhelming majority who will die from Covid will be the unvaccinated, so we do have a good idea where most of those deaths will be.

You can't say that. New strains will mutate and vaccine may not protect. We simply don't know. For Delta strain yes certainly a protective factor.

 

[Must...Fly!]

You can't say that. New strains will mutate and vaccine may not protect. We simply don't know. For Delta strain yes certainly a protective factor.

So far that hasn't happened despite some fear mongering. Mostly it's an issue of waning protection from vaccines time wise

 

[dajop]

200 a day, out of a population of 5 million?

In the presence of extreme controls. If you assume no controls everything back to normal, there'd almost certainly be more than 200 cases a day in a population of 5 million.

 

[Lynda2475]

You can't say that. New strains will mutate and vaccine may not protect. We simply don't know. For Delta strain yes certainly a protective factor.

Its true right now, and boosters are being developed to ensure this continues to be the case.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I'm not sure this is a valid argument. You have not factored in the probability of getting Covid in the first place. 200 a day, out of a population of 5 million? OT I know, so won't pursue the point!

It’s not an argument. It’s factual.
The risk of getting covid if unvaccinated will vary greatly on where you live, work place etc etc.
The risk/benefit ratio is quite well laid out in the documents from ATAGI.
And their advice in the current outbreak is that AZ can be used in anyone over 18.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

While the older people were vulnerable, now everyone is considered vulnerable (maybe excluding under 16 or under 12).

The plan now is 70% and 80% of 16+.

Incentives/privileges to be considered when supply exceeds demand and/or hesitant become obvious.

 

[burmans]

One could also suggest that you stop posting your opinion on who should get vaccinated and by when.

You could always put the OP on ignore, Thought of that myself but the OP is one of those people who do occasionally say something useful. We all know those people who we tend to ignore but that means we do miss an occasional gem of information.

 

[nutwood]

It’s not an argument. It’s factual.
The risk of getting covid if unvaccinated will vary greatly on where you live, work place etc etc.
The risk/benefit ratio is quite well laid out in the documents from ATAGI.
And their advice in the current outbreak is that AZ can be used in anyone over 18.

I really shouldn't bite because I'm very much in favour of vaccination but if you reckon your chances of getting Covid are 1 in 5000 and the chances of dying from Covid are 1 in 200; you're at even peg with dying from AZ at 1 in 1000,000.
Realistically, it's a silly argument because it's based on raw statistics. A proper discussion would factor in those who become very sick but don't die, along with the very nebulous figure on how contagious a vaccinated person is versus a non vaccinated. I strongly suspect if we had the desired 80% of population vaccinated, combined with some gentle public health measures, Covid almost zero would be achievable.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It’s not an argument. It’s factual.
The risk of getting covid if unvaccinated will vary greatly on where you live, work place etc etc.
The risk/benefit ratio is quite well laid out in the documents from ATAGI.
And their advice in the current outbreak is that AZ can be used in anyone over 18.

Plus once the powers that be decide the vaccination level is high enough, those that are not yet vaccinated are going to get exposed to Covid at a pretty rapid rate.

Total Cases so far only stands at 35 thousand odd.

Though yes there will be people that have had Covid, but were not tested. However the number is still quite small.

If even that future number of unvaccinated is only 5%, that is 1,300,000 people. Eventually most will catch Covid. If that was 1:200 mortality rate, then that is 6,500 deaths.

So logically the small number of deaths that may arise from taking AZ or Pfizer are not really significant (except of course to the families involved) in the overall scheme of things.

 

[justinbrett]

I really shouldn't bite because I'm very much in favour of vaccination but if you reckon your chances of getting Covid are 1 in 5000 and the chances of dying from Covid are 1 in 200; you're at even peg with dying from AZ at 1 in 1000,000.
Realistically, it's a silly argument because it's based on raw statistics. A proper discussion would factor in those who become very sick but don't die, along with the very nebulous figure on how contagious a vaccinated person is versus a non vaccinated. I strongly suspect if we had the desired 80% of population vaccinated, combined with some gentle public health measures, Covid almost zero would be achievable.

I think your odds of getting covid is a lot higher than 1:5000

For Sydney that’s about 1000 people. They get that in 5 days.

Based on current cases Australia is around 1:750, so including future cases it would be more like 1:500.

 

[TheRealTMA]

You can't say that. New strains will mutate and vaccine may not protect. We simply don't know. For Delta strain yes certainly a protective factor.

Well, it’s a fair comment. One can for unvaccinated as they are saying in the US now.

 

[Matt_01]

Its not just my opinion, its the official plan. All levels of government are repeatedly calling for the older cohort to hurry up and get vaccinated, its our way out of endless damaging lockdowns.

Every single presser since the start of this current outbreak Dr Chant has been pleading for the oldies to hurry up and get vaccinated. Even Dr Young is urging the over 60s to pull their finger out.

Frankly if people choose not, that is not a good enough reason to keep those who did get vaccinated hostages in their homes.

Vaccine privilige is needed now, to save many from crippling mental heath and economic damage. Lockdown the vulnerable and unvaccinated, not the protected.

Over the past 12 months we have heard about your friends in the US, immune deficiency family and friends who can only have pfizer or something similar. When the early vacineen push was on you were openly against AZ and went head to head with qualified MDs on this site and disagreed with their advice and I would suggest that many of your comments were no better than the junk presser comments. Now that you and your family have been vaccinated with your drug of choice you seem to be pushing it back on the Govt and blaming everyone over 60 for the reason you cannot visit family.

For the record I did get jabbed with AZ within the first week I was able to get an appointment and I get my final next week.

 

[serfty]

if you reckon your chances of getting Covid are 1 in 5000

I reckon in the long run, the chances of getting (or coming in contact with) COVID will approach 5000 in 5000.

People should get Get vaccinated ASAP.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I feel like Australia is the whole primary school class being kept in as a punishment because one or two of the kids were naughty.

I'm a little more optimistic - I think it's positive to see the whole class rallying to beat this despite one or two kids being naughty (whether that's one or two people in Vic/SA/WA... or the whole of Sydney ). The vox pop on the news tonight in Vic seemed pretty much in favour of the quick response.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Over the past 12 months we have heard about your friends in the US, immune deficiency family and friends who can only have pfizer or something similar. When the early vacineen push was on you were openly against AZ and went head to head with qualified MDs on this site and disagreed with their advice and I would suggest that many of your comments were no better than the junk presser comments. Now that you and your family have been vaccinated with your drug of choice you seem to be pushing it back on the Govt and blaming everyone over 60 for the reason you cannot visit family.

For the record I did get jabbed with AZ within the first week I was able to get an appointment and I get my final next week.

Hmmm...was or is it that transparent???

 

[Matt_01]

You could always put the OP on ignore, Thought of that myself but the OP is one of those people who do occasionally say something useful. We all know those people who we tend to ignore but that means we do miss an occasional gem of information.

I get this, for around over 12 months I have ignored many comments on this thread it is not the OP (@Pushka) I have an issue with. It is the peanuts that have no medical training, put themselves out there as medical experts and chose to go head to head with properly trained MDs. No wonder we are on the spiral of despair.

 

[bcworld]

 

[nutwood]

I reckon in the long run, the chances of getting (or coming in contact with) COVID will approach 5000 in 5000.

People should get Get vaccinated ASAP.

That's exactly why I'm pro-vaccination. Just like the flu, unless the whole country is going to be shut down forever, or you live in WA, we're all going to encounter Covid sooner or later.

 

[Pushka]

I cannot imagine any state just inviting Covid in once say 80% of us are vaccinated. It's going to take a monumental shift in mindsets of the powers that currently control us.