Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

How do you know the index case less than 24 hours after it all kicked off?

Without a known infection source, you don't as the first case found is often not the index case.

ie

Al-Taqwa teacher first found case in current cluster. But testing since has indicated that she was not infected first. Plus the person who infected that person is still not known. It may or may not have been a person infected by the Traffic Controller, which while probably the most likely scenario it could also not be.

Melbourne's first Delta Cluster ( North Melbourne) was found via Camping Man. He was not the first community case though as later tests found the people that infected him. The link back beyond that to a person in HQ with the same strain was never found (ie HQ Breach, Airport Arrival Breach, Aircraft Cleaning Breach?)

 

[bcworld]

ACT:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426004124965818374

 

[sinophile888]

Two phrases come to mind regarding spread of the virus.
Too little, too late.
Shutting the gate after the horse has bolted.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Graphical updates of cases in NSW are below. Unfortunately none of the trends are good.

 

[Pushka]

Graphical updates of cases in NSW are below. Unfortunately none of the trends are good.

View attachment 255376



View attachment 255377

View attachment 255378

I'd like to see more details of vaccination status in that last graph.

 

[moa999]

Some projections of NSW here based on current Reff.
I think his vaccination graphs are optimistic, as we know vaccinated people can spread the virus, just they are less likely to be hospitalised and die, and infectious period and infectivity possibly lower.

Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

chrisbillington.net

 

[Jenya]

Seems to be a stable up trend now. About 100 a week. 500 this time next week?

my prediction in 2-3 weeks we will see NSW cases in thousands.
That is inevitable as public restrictions compliance will only reduce as ppl simply tired and frustrated beyond limits. Even those who usually tent to follow rules. They see their efforts not enough to stop the escalation and see others simply not obeying rules - so why struggle?
+ the more vaccinations administered the more ppl will choose to be out and about.

The only thing current knockdown does - buying some time for govt to react.
I.e expanding hospital capability, stock up PPE and lifesaving equipment, train medical staff.
Otherwise there will be hundreds of lives lost very soon.
But its not happening. And that is the biggest fail of NSW govt.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The only thing current knockdown does - buying some time for govt to react.

Kind of like March 2020, eh?

The measures you outline about ppe and capacity were addressed in some way, shape or form in 2020.

It's clear the outbreak is more or less beyond controlling now. The rules are not the strictest but they are plenty restrictive enough - there's nothing you can do if people don't respect the rules.

The focus for the community and non critical care healthcare needs to be 100% on vaccination, as widely and as soon as possible.

 

[antycbr]

I would have my doubts on how suitable such Student Halls would to keep housing students if some of their number are positive.

They’re not - if they have shared bathrooms they’re definitely not.

Source: lived in one for 5 years at ANU

 

[jakeseven7]

Vic Presser:


From Monday all state run hubs will over AZ to all over 18.

Well done Prof Sutton. Please feel free to apply for our soon to be vacant CHO role up here (QLD)

 

[Seat0B]

Record demand for testing as 3,900 contacts identified in Canberra

ACT authorities confirm 3,900 contacts have been linked to the Canberra outbreak and testing clinics are faltering under the weight of high testing demand.

www.abc.net.au

this story contains reports of peoole identified as close contacts waiting hours for testing, in a common line with everyone else, and then being turned away and told to come back again. I can confirm that this is exactly what happened to family members of mine. Close contacts, waited 7 hours yesterday and 4 hour today and still not tested. This is really asking a lot of people. I can see why some don’t bother. Imagine doing that with 3 small children in your car. Actually not good enough ACT Health. Evidence attached.

 

[Jenya]

he measures you outline about ppe and capacity were addressed in some way, shape or form in 2020.

surely not on required scale. Last year they still could hope border closures would do the thing.
But now its clear that current health care system will get overwhelmed very soon. Even with projected 70-80% vaccinated there will be still a lot of hospitalizations required beyond capacity. During VIC second wave is already happened with massive numbers of doctors were knocked out sick, and this was with original not so infectious variant.
What they need is to build huge makeshift hospitals like China did last year and stock up Oxygen generators, bottles and fittings.

China completes coronavirus hospital in Wuhan in 10 days

The focus for the community and non critical care healthcare needs to be 100% on vaccination

Agree,
but even with greatest efforts on vaccination weak Australian healthcare system will still collapse with ppl left to die at home without proper help.
Post above from @Seat0B is best prove ((

 

[Pushka]

Record demand for testing as 3,900 contacts identified in Canberra

ACT authorities confirm 3,900 contacts have been linked to the Canberra outbreak and testing clinics are faltering under the weight of high testing demand.

www.abc.net.au

this story contains reports of peoole identified as close contacts waiting hours for testing, in a common line with everyone else, and then being turned away and told to come back again. I can confirm that this is exactly what happened to family members of mine. Close contacts, waited 7 hours yesterday and 4 hour today and still not tested. This is really asking a lot of people. I can see why some don’t bother. Imagine doing that with 3 small children in your car. Actually not good enough ACT Health. Evidence attached.


View attachment 255379

Same thing happened in SA. Now we can make appointments and not have to wait. They also opened up a huge walk in clinic in a stadium.

 

[Tiki]

Record demand for testing as 3,900 contacts identified in Canberra

ACT authorities confirm 3,900 contacts have been linked to the Canberra outbreak and testing clinics are faltering under the weight of high testing demand.

www.abc.net.au

this story contains reports of peoole identified as close contacts waiting hours for testing, in a common line with everyone else, and then being turned away and told to come back again. I can confirm that this is exactly what happened to family members of mine. Close contacts, waited 7 hours yesterday and 4 hour today and still not tested. This is really asking a lot of people. I can see why some don’t bother. Imagine doing that with 3 small children in your car. Actually not good enough ACT Health. Evidence attached.


View attachment 255379

I was wondering what do people do about "calls of nature" in this circumstance? Lose your place in line? And what if you are in a car queue at a drive in?

 

[hydrabyss]

I was wondering what do people do about "calls of nature" in this circumstance? Lose your place in line? And what if you are in a car queue at a drive in?

Pretend your going for a blood test and need to fast beforehand

 

[Seat0B]

Another story of even longer wait times. All this feeds into to people being frustrated and less inclined to be compliant. Some in this article said they probably wouldn’t bother to go back the next day, despite being close contacts. Can’t really blame them. I think peo0le are getting tired of all the sacrifices being one way and caused by government not honouring its part of the social compact.

Frustration in Canberra as some queue for more than six hours for Covid testing before being turned away

The ACT relies on just three testing centres, which have been quickly overwhelmed as the territory enters a five-day lockdown

www.theguardian.com

I was wondering what do people so about "calls of nature" in this circumstance? Lose your place in line?

When I was tested at EPIC, there were 2 sets of toilets available for people to use whilst waiting. This is s drive through, so your car kept your place in line, even if it held up the traffic .

Not sure what happens at the walk-in clinic in Weston Creek.

 

[kyle]

Another story of even longer wait times. All this feeds into to people being frustrated and less inclined to be compliant. Some in this article said they probably wouldn’t bother to go back the next day, despite being close contacts. Can’t really blame them. I think peo0le are getting tired of all the sacrifices being one way and caused by government not honouring its part of the social compact.

Frustration in Canberra as some queue for more than six hours for Covid testing before being turned away

The ACT relies on just three testing centres, which have been quickly overwhelmed as the territory enters a five-day lockdown

www.theguardian.com

When I was tested at EPIC, there were 2 sets of toilets available for people to use whilst waiting. This is s drive through, so your car kept your place in line, even if it held up the traffic .

Not sure what happens at the walk-in clinic in Weston Creek.

I wouldn't bother too if you have to wait so long only to be turned away. Might as well just self-isolate for 2 weeks if there's no deterioration of the condition.

 

[Seat0B]

Pretend your going for a blood test and need to fast beforehand

Sure but when you wait 7hrs or more, you will definitely need to use the loo, no matter what you ate or drank. And even more so if you are accompanied by kids, or older people.

 

[Seat0B]

Live update - my relative has now waited 6 hours today, as a close contact ordered to test by the government, on top of the 7 hours she waited yesterday before being turned away. She’s a lot more tolerant and compliant than I feel right now. It’s really not good enough.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Live update - my relative has now waited 6 hours today, as a close contact ordered to test by the government, on top of the 7 hours she waited yesterday before being turned away. She’s a lot more tolerant and compliant than I feel right now. It’s really not good enough.View attachment 255400

In the Hunter we have separate testing for confirmed close contacts.
It is not a publicly accessible or advertised testing site. The public testing sites are swamped.
I would assume given their numbers that ACT should be able to set up something similar.