Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pom-DownUnder]

I'm really disturbed by this. I've now heard it from WA, QLD and NSW.

In the short term, this risks the vaccination rollout. Some people won't want to bother.

If this truly is the future for Australia, I will be looking for a new country to live in.

Just sick of the story changing.
"wear the mask" - wore it / wearing it
"Stay at home" - doing it, working from home
"Take the Vaccine - its the path out" - Double jabbed with Pfizer
"we are going to follow the dougherty report" - do it then.

Once we get to 80% - the government get out of my life, they open the country up - or its move back to UK time, moved here for a better life and told you cannot leave when you have followed all the steps isnt a better life its a spit in the face.

I have all the time in the world for medical people, hats off, well done, etc etc but that doesnt mean they should get the say on peoples freedoms, they are naturally risk averse and while i'm happy to listen to their opinion, thats all it should an opinion which people should be free to follow or not at their own risk like free adults.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Active cases in Vic by Age.

The younger cohorts under 19 are experiencing a much higher of proportion of cases than they have in the past.

This is probably in part due to who has been vaccinated, and in part that children are more easily infected by the Delta Strain and importantly also seem more able to infect others than had occurred with the early strains. Child to child transmission has occurred in the current outbreak. as well as child to adult.

Household Attack Rates are also much higher with Delta .




Which is quite different age distribution to the historical All Cases.

 

[oznflfan]

Exactly. A broken clock is right twice a day as well. Who cares, she’s the butt of all jokes this one. I can reduce the chance of me crashing my car by never allowing it out of the garage so cool bananas I can do the SA CHO job too

Ban sale on alcohol sales, smoke sales and motorcycle riding, that's drop SA death rate by at least a thousand a year?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Undoubtedly NSW Health will eventually hear this....schools in Sydney is probably done for 2021 - maybe get Year 12 vaccinated across all Sydney LGAs and let them do their exams.

Victorian officials have also been holding an update on their state's Covid-19 situation, after recording 24 new cases.

Chief health officer Brett Sutton has expressed concern over the greater risk – posed by the Delta variant – of the virus spreading between children.

“Fifty of our current cases are under the age of 10. We have seen child to child transmission throughout this outbreak, in schools, in other circumstances. It happens very quickly in households between children,” Professor Sutton said.

“We are investigating a potential transmission in a playground. It is not definitive and maybe we will not be able to make it definitive but it looks like there has been transmission in a playground.

“We have also seen transmission between students who were not in classes together who did not have any other face to face interaction other than sharing a walk home, didn’t play together, don’t live together, didn’t have classes together.”

Yes I reported that earlier.

Contract tracing now in Victoria is very good. With the playground you most likely have two families with an infected young child were the only intersection found in time and space is that playground.

• But no CCTV
• You can't rely (or probably even try) on having a very young child recall who they played with or were near.
• Parent may have not really been watching 100% of the time either....and would you remember every random young child you child played with, or waited behind on the slide, anyway?

So the balance of probability is that the transmission was there, but one cannot be definitive about it.

 

[dajop]

Active cases in Vic by Age.

The younger cohorts under 19 are experiencing a much higher of proportion of cases than they have in the past.

This is probably in part due to who has been vaccinated, and in part that children are more easily infected by the Delta Strain and importantly also seem more able to infect others than had occurred with the early strains. Child to child transmission has occurred in the current outbreak. as well as child to adult.

Household Attack Rates are also much higher with Delta .

View attachment 255796

Looks like there is also very strong inverse correlation with vaccination rates for each age group.

 

[Port Power]

Interesting that the NT positive case is a US citizen and that he will not disclose if he is vaccinated or not. It seems NT requiring a “Day 17” covid test is the reason he was found to be positive so fast.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Looks like there is also very strong inverse correlation with vaccination rates for each age group.

Yes agree, which is why I started with This is probably in part due to who has been vaccinated.

And this I think addresses the adults ranges. However vaccination rates of the U24s is low, but children are comparable and are unvaccinated in both time periods.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Analysis of 74% of Sydney/NSW cases - 1% fully vaccinated, 3% one dose and 4% one dose within 3 weeks.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Chief medical officer Paul Kelly has reiterated the PM and Health Minister's words and said that the Covid-19 vaccine "is hope" for Australia.

Of the nearly 6000 cases in NSW, only one per cent were fully vaccinated.

"That is 99 per cent of the cases we have seen have not been vaccinated. Vaccination is the key. That's our hope," Professor Kelly said.

"Three per cent were partially vaccinated and four per cent were diagnosed within three weeks of receiving a single vaccination.

"The key message here is go and get vaccinated particularly if you're in the older age group but, as Minister Wyatt has mentioned, but everyone. Vaccination is available. Right now. In many places very close to you.

"As importantly, no fully vaccinated cases have required admission to ICU. That severe end of the spectrum, we have talked about the protection two vaccinations gives against severe illness, not a single person in ICU has been vaccinated and there's only been one death, unfortunately, the gentleman aged 91 years was fully vaccinated.

"I believe there might have been two now, but there's very few of the cases that have been diagnosed have been fully vaccinated and died.

"So it is a protection. It is hope. It's our way out of this crisis. Please do not hesitate and go and get vaccinated. Make that appointment today."


....from news blog

 

[Seat0B]

To what end? Covid isn't going away.

I don't want to wear a mask for the rest of my life. I want to be able to go overseas and not quarantine on return. I'd like to book an interstate holiday and not have to consider the public health environment.

I'd rather take the miniscule risk of dying of covid (having been double jabbed and living in a vaccinated society) than put up with those restrictions for the rest of my life.

All of the above.

And I would also like to see my overseas resident son without too much palaver. And also be able to see my Australian resident elderly relatives at times that suit us, and without permission from some functionary bureaucrat. And I would like to be able to take bookings for my interstate clients and be confident that they will proceed and money will come into my bank account to fund my overseas travel.

 

[Seat0B]

and seek to migrate

And given the way the governments have completely washed their hands of Australians residing overseas, who are still citizens here, I don't think they will care at all if Australians migrate temporarily or permanently, more's the pity.

 

[oz_mark]

And given the way the governments have completely washed their hands of Australians residing overseas, who are still citizens here, I don't think they will care at all if Australians migrate temporarily or permanently, more's the pity.

Some governments have even washed their hands of residents that happen to be in another state ..

 

[Seat0B]

My goodness will they shut their mouths about this! Why on earth do you think people (especially younger people) are racing to get vaccinated? To get out of this mess we live in.

The carrot is the 70/80% for goodness sakes why poison that. People will just not even bother.

100% correct. I have long suspected that they are all idiots, with no understanding of how people think and act in the real world, and that is now being confirmed. Of course there is the benefit of vaccination to the individual in that they most likely won't get sick and die, but what kind of a life is it if it is just like now?

And for many, the ability to live more freely was certainly a big juicy carrot driving vaccination. Some did it for seeing family more easily, for travel within Australia and overseas, to be able to work and study normally, to be able to have a social life - but if these incentives are not going to be possible even at 80%, then I can understand many people saying "why bother". And although we might get to 80% now (which I actually doubt), if things don't loosen up at that point I am pretty sure that booster compliance will look like flu shot uptake - variable from 30-70%. This will mean that we keep losing the benefit of higher percentages of people being vaccinated in the community.

Arghhhhhhhhh

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I know it was discussed here a little yesterday but this is such a worrying collection of words

"Can you give them anything to cling to?"
"Sure, hold this anchor"

 

[Seat0B]

Chief medical officer Paul Kelly has reiterated the PM and Health Minister's words and said that the Covid-19 vaccine "is hope" for Australia.

Trouble is, I have stopped believing it. The Feds are not in charge. We are in the hands of the absolute monarchs of the colonies formerly known as Australia. And they are not saying anything to give hope. Lockdown now widely expected to run until November.

For example, this piece from The Guardian COVID blog:

New Zealand to enter lockdown; Berejiklian fears substantial rise in cases – as it happened

Follow all the day’s news

www.theguardian.com

Plus many other news reports including Gladys's pressers.

CBA's 'working assumption' is lockdown for Sydney until mid-November​

Ben Butler

The Reserve Bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic because they assume Sydney’s lockdown will be over by the end of next month, economists at Australia’s biggest bank say.

In a note commenting on the minutes of the RBA board meeting last month, which were released this morning, CBA senior economist Kristina Clifton says that “these assumptions look more and more optimistic as time goes on”.

“It has been our working assumption that the Greater Sydney lockdown won’t ease until mid November when a large proportion of the population is vaccinated,” she said.

The RBA is relying on its forecasts when it says it will start reducing its purchases of bonds from banks – a program that pumps cash into the economy – from next month.

But the longer the lockdown goes, the more economic growth in the final quarter of the year is threatened. Many economists say a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP – is unlikely as long as Sydney opens up sometime before the end of the year.

This is because even a small increase in GDP would represent a bounce back from the September quarter, which is expected to be negative.

None of this is much comfort to people already experiencing economic pain due to the shutdown and limited financial support from the government – arguments about whether or not it’s technically a recession don’t mean much to them.

 

[ethernet]

Bear a thought for China. Delta is a gamechanger, and they got 10/10 for getting a handbrake on it- pre-delta. However this can go bad, very quickly, and being economical with the truth is ruinous. I think Icelands 93% vaccinated is the answer.

My analysis on NSW is poor. Gladys said more rubbish on numbers bouncing around. The correct word is 'giant spike coming' There is about to be great community unrest, and I pity anyone who works near or in a hospital. AMA is making noises about capacity.

No mention of Vitamin D (20000 IU day) /Zinc. It may be a waste of money, but I have enough to ride things out when things get really ugly.

Jim Hacker: I'd like a new chair. I hate swivel chairs.
Bernard Woolley: It used to be said there were two kinds of chairs to go with two kinds of Minister: one sort folds up instantly; the other sort goes round and round in circles.

Hacker:"Bernard, this government is here to govern, not merely preside like our predecessors did. When a country is going downhill, it is time for someone to get into the driving seat, and put his foot on the accelerator."
Bernard Woolley:"I think you mean the brake."

 

[jakeseven7]

Trouble is, I have stopped believing it. The Feds are not in charge. We are in the hands of the absolute monarchs of the colonies formerly known as Australia. And they are not saying anything to give hope.

Yes and a couple of these Premiers are simply barefaced liars, who play all nice in National Cabinet but then literally hours later hold a press conference to stroke their egos and say 'oh yea nah not going to do what I said after all so sorry'.

I actually feel (sometimes.....) a bit sorry for the Feds - for all of their own stuff ups, its like National Cabinet is herding a bunch of coughy schoolkids together that are sweetness and cookies to your face in the classroom and mean little backstabbers in the playground!

 

[ethernet]

T

Trouble is, I have stopped believing it. The Feds are not in charge. We are in the hands of the absolute monarchs of the colonies formerly known as Australia. And they are not saying anything to give hope. Lockdown now widely expected to run until November.

For example, this piece from The Guardian COVID blog:

New Zealand to enter lockdown; Berejiklian fears substantial rise in cases – as it happened

Follow all the day’s news

www.theguardian.com

Plus many other news reports including Gladys's pressers.

CBA's 'working assumption' is lockdown for Sydney until mid-November​

Ben Butler

The Reserve Bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic because they assume Sydney’s lockdown will be over by the end of next month, economists at Australia’s biggest bank say.

In a note commenting on the minutes of the RBA board meeting last month, which were released this morning, CBA senior economist Kristina Clifton says that “these assumptions look more and more optimistic as time goes on”.

“It has been our working assumption that the Greater Sydney lockdown won’t ease until mid November when a large proportion of the population is vaccinated,” she said.

The RBA is relying on its forecasts when it says it will start reducing its purchases of bonds from banks – a program that pumps cash into the economy – from next month.

But the longer the lockdown goes, the more economic growth in the final quarter of the year is threatened. Many economists say a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP – is unlikely as long as Sydney opens up sometime before the end of the year.

This is because even a small increase in GDP would represent a bounce back from the September quarter, which is expected to be negative.

None of this is much comfort to people already experiencing economic pain due to the shutdown and limited financial support from the government – arguments about whether or not it’s technically a recession don’t mean much to them.

This is greedy selfish thinking. Mid-November is the latest possible date, otherwise the Christmas silly season, and the explosive waste of money will have ruinous consequences.
Think smarter. Arrival rate of covid infections into hospital, departure of treated noninfectious patients. (Telling people to die thoughtfully/take chances in their homes is kinda unthinkable in .au). All Westfields will NEVER be allowed to have silly season packed densities this year, and Delta will not be taking a holiday. I'll be happy to be wrong, as my crematorium shares are doing nicely.

 

[Pushka]

Apparently they were all named and the Skin care clinic has copped a mountain of abuse.

The Doctors current Google review score is 1 and the comments, oh my . Annoyingly they want forgiveness yet they mock the restrictions in their speeches. It's a knowing breach and given their medical profession, they have brought the profession into disrepute, something AHPRA and even their liability insurance company will not take lightly.

 

[SydneySwan]

It’s because they are run by ancient old dinosaurs.

I know a couple of senior health bureaucrats. One of them was ultra risk averse when I first met him 25 years ago and if anything he is worse now. His salary is guaranteed but he has absolutely no idea how a small business or casual worker sees the world. The elimination of any health risk is all that matters. From his perspective though his job is health risk not the economy.