Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

You can't fine someone you don't know about. They mentioned a gathering in Maroubra (not the time of day) that has generated 11 cases. If the people didn't gather in Maroubra, there wouldn't be 11 cases.

Who's fault is it that the Police don't know about it?

They can not and should not expect to know about everyone's movements.

Unless you're in China and have facial recognition cameras everywhere.

Get where I'm going with this?

 

[justinbrett]

Dr Chant is going to crack it one day - shes over having to say the same thing every day and no improvement in 6 weeks so far.

She needs a couple of days off and not deal with the same questions/reporters every single day.

Lately she only attends around 50% of briefings

 

[Denali]

Lately she only attends around 50% of briefings

Dont blame her - everyone is entitled to some time off from facing that barrage every single day. Yes, they're highly paid professionals but its got to be mentally exhausting as well.

 

[mbell1510]

I think we should all be concerned about the infringement on personal freedom during the pandemic. We'd have to be kidding ourselves if we think this will all disappear in a couple of months. I support restrictions when it is justified, but over stepping the mark without any checks and balances is troubling. Surely parliament should have to debate these rules at a minimum. Even Dr Chant said the curfew was not health advice.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

More transparency today

NSW CHO confirms she did not threaten to resign at any time,

 

[Must...Fly!]

Even Dr Chant said the curfew was not health advice.

Really? I don't watch these sideshows much any more.

But if that's the case, then that is an even lower low than Victoria. Even if the government down here can't point to any evidence, it is presented and backed as "health advice".

I don't support curfews on general movement of any sort. Only ones I might consider "appropriate" would be the early closing of pubs.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

ABC News - ACT reports 12 new cases overnight​

Chief Minister Andrew Barr says 11 of these are linked to the current outbreak and one is still under investigation

 

[jakeseven7]

More transparency today

NSW CHO confirms she did not threaten to resign at any time,

Yes that was carefully worded wasn’t it

Interesting to see a curfew has finally made its way into the tools. I actually think it will piss more people off in Sydney than anything but I guess they have to try new things? I’m honestly not sure what the net benefit will be…

I think it was good PR tactic to call out the naughty Eastern suburb party - gives Sw/W Sydney a break from all the pressure.

 

[justinbrett]

Really? I don't watch these sideshows much any more.

But if that's the case, then that is an even lower low than Victoria. Even if the government can't point to any evidence, it is presented and backed as "health advice"

The full explanation was it was requested by police, supported by health as it sends a signal.

Clearly its an enforcement measure. They freely admit it probably won't reduce cases.

I for one can tolerate a curfew (even though I don't support it), if it is not sold as a health measure.

 

[MARTINE]

Re: R numbers and Herd Immunity concepts

The spirit of my post is clarity about ‘the science of the numbers‘ and aims to be helpful in understanding how figures are reached from a medical perspective (it is apolitical); if it’s helpful - good , if you know it already - skim . If you want to argue the political interpretations ….. I can’t help

R0 number is well known = basic reproduction number = average number of 2nd infections from a single infected person introduced into completely susceptible population.e.g 4 each person infects 4 others etc etc. Less than 1 - insufficient to sustain transmission.
Versus
Re - average number of 2nd infected persons generated by index case over infectious period in partially immune population. This number changes dynamically over vaccination campaign.

HERD immunity- when enough people are immune to an infection then even the non immune are protected because number of latter too small for it to spread.

HERD immunity calculation -
Required % of population who need to be immune to induce herd immunity in the remaining population = 1-(1/R0)
e.g Delta R 4-5 est (using 5)
= 1 - 1/5 = 1-0.2 = 80%
another example is Measles with R of 12 which is why about 92% immunity needed.

goal of vaccine is to bring Re below 1

Just a quick overview in a v simplified way…
but….. I won’t depress you with all the complex caveats that mean you can achieve these numbers but not predict the outcome nor achieve the goal with certainty.

 

[kamchatsky]

Really? I don't watch these sideshows much any more.

But if that's the case, then that is an even lower low than Victoria. Even if the government down here can't point to any evidence, it is presented and backed as "health advice".

I don't support curfews on general movement of any sort. Only ones I might consider "appropriate" would be the early closing of pubs.

Of course it is not health advise. It is policing advise. Essential workers/tradies/etc go to work during the day, and then they breach orders at night and go out for gatherings and parties. That's why it is needed. I don't believe in curfew but if it can bring people in line, so be it.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The full explanation was it was requested by police, supported by health as it sends a signal.

Clearly its an enforcement measure. They freely admit it probably won't reduce cases.

I for one can tolerate a curfew (even though I don't support it), if it is not sold as a health measure.

The fact that government can present a blunt instrument of enforcement which

a) Was not requested by the people responsible for health
b) Can not be evidenced to actually reduce case numbers
c) Does not have confidence of government to reduce case numbers
d) Is not consulted or debated through any democratic process

Should concern absolutely everyone. And I am not singling out NSW here, but VIC as well.

The fact that on top of all the restrictions and liberties we have had removed over the past 18 months by all levels of government has now fallen to the low of general curfews should scare everyone.

Fact is it is now on a slope of becoming a normalised response, so the next outbreak in QLD, or SA - don't be surprised to see a curfew introduced as well - "because Sydney and Melbourne have"

 

[jakeseven7]

Of course it is not health advise. It is policing advise. Essential workers/tradies/etc go to work during the day, and then they breach orders at night and go out for gatherings and parties. That's why it is needed. I don't believe in curfew but if it can bring people in line, so be it.

What does it matter whose advice it is? People are so touchy these days… (not you! The reporters etc) NSW Health ‘fully support’ the curfew so…. What does it even matter?

 

[OATEK]

Yes but...

"I am not the type of premier that is going to be asking citizens to do things that (won't) have any effect. The fact is (curfews) will not ... reduce the number of cases."

Yes, and Dr Chant repeated several times that the evidence is mixed and no guarantees it will make a difference, but based on current risk is worth a try.

Edit: was interesting to see that there were several comments around intelligence about some movements like the "young men" sneaking around at night, like the 4 found near Drummoyne (at 2am) from an LGA of concern.

 

[kamchatsky]

What does it matter whose advice it is? People are so touchy these days… (not you! The reporters etc) NSW Health ‘fully support’ the curfew so…. What does it even matter?

Those reporters need to write sensationalist stories ..... with titles such as "... shocked ... ", or " .... stunned ..." etc.

And then the editors will write opinion pieces with it ....

Looks at how media portrays AZ vaccines in the past and you get the message.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Meanwhile Barr is showing absolute cowardice, infuriating.

"we need to have a plan for vaccinating under 16's" - thats fine go for your life for people that have essentially 0 risk from covid but dont you dare roll them into the percentage figures ffs.

"so when we talk about 70 or 80 percent we must talk about when the vaccines become effective .. targets are not reached on the day of vaccination" - as if planes are going to start landing - as if incubation of infection is now no longer a thing.

fear and hesitation!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The fact that government can present a blunt instrument of enforcement which

a) Was not requested by the people responsible for health
b) Can not be evidenced to actually reduce case numbers
c) Does not have confidence of government to reduce case numbers
d) Is not consulted or debated through any democratic process

Should concern absolutely everyone. And I am not singling out NSW here, but VIC as well.

The fact that on top of all the restrictions and liberties we have had removed over the past 18 months by all levels of government has now fallen to the low of general curfews should scare everyone.

Fact is it is now on a slope of becoming a normalised response, so the next outbreak in QLD, or SA - don't be surprised to see a curfew introduced as well - "because Sydney and Melbourne have"

Well Vic has a state of emergency - so police powers theoretically more permissible; NSW does not have state of emergency - so a bit more questionable - but NSW Health is of the view there is mixed evidence, so possibly on balance - permissible.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think some conflate the rejection of blunt instruments to assist Police enforcement, as somehow rejecting the general idea of Police enforcement. They are very different things.

 

[justinbrett]

Dan's up - full stick, not a carrot in sight

 

[jakeseven7]

Panic?

I didn’t see panic nah - and why would there be panic, the vax rates are probably going to save us. I just saw and heard fatigue and exasperation in all the presenters, the level of non compliance is going to defeat anything they do and they know it.

Messaging was fine until Q&A then it tends to fall apart, I personally think GB needs to be firmer with them, they trample her a bit.