Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[pagingjoan]

You are right. They aren't playing in Adelaide..

Isn't all the data for the various outbreaks predicated on people getting tested? Can we be so sure that people just aren't bothering anymore unless ill or the 'worried well'

Not playing tomorrow, either!

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I am not sure in you have read the Doherty Report or not? But NSW would not seem to be pursing the preferred scenario outlined in it.

I am not saying what NSW should or should not do.

All I am saying is that that model was based on certain things. There is little point stating that one can open up based on the model if you are not following the model. That does not mean that one cannot open up.

This should not be confused with the ability to go a different way. Based on the NSW leaks NSW is going a different way. I just think it is silly to pretend that it is doing so based on the Doherty Report when if the reports are accurate it clearly is not the case. The path (recipe) that NSW is seemingly is on is not the one mapped out in the Doherty Report.

honestly the way the 'outbreak' is going currently is completely fine, if you look at the image below, compared to how the rest of the world has gone with delta its incredibly light

 

[justinbrett]

I am not sure in you have read the Doherty Report or not? But NSW would not seem to be pursing the preferred scenario outlined in it.

I am not saying what NSW should or should not do.

All I am saying is that that model was based on certain things. There is little point stating that one can open up based on the model if you are not following the model. That does not mean that one cannot open up.

This should not be confused with the ability to go a different way. Based on the NSW leaks NSW is going a different way. I just think it is silly to pretend that it is doing so based on the Doherty Report when if the reports are accurate it clearly is not the case. The path (recipe) that NSW is seemingly is on is not the one mapped out in the Doherty Report.

Have you read the modelling report?

I can't see where it mentions a starting point for cases. It's also not listed in the assumptions section. Happy to be corrected if it does.

I realise now they're trying to backpedal - sounds a lot like ATAGI.

It also doesn't make a lot of sense. They expect daily case numbers to get to 60K even with 80%. So at some point our daily case numbers today are irrelevant, we're just starting a bit further along.

I think the UK is a good example, at the moment they are pretty much at 80% double jabbed (by our metric, eligible population) and they're doing just fine. My friend over there is currently on holidays elsewhere in Europe.

WE NEED TO STOP THE FEARMONGERING! VACCINATION IS THE WAY OUT!

 

[Pushka]

Not playing tomorrow, either!

See, I don't follow them at all. . Anyways the Premier is touring the country areas today, pre election stuff so unlikely to be any imminent changes today or that would have been cancelled.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Have you read the modelling report?

I can't see where it mentions a starting point for cases. It's also not listed in the assumptions section. Happy to be corrected if it does.

I realise now they're trying to backpedal - sounds a lot like ATAGI.

It also doesn't make a lot of sense. They expect daily case numbers to get to 60K even with 80%. So at some point our daily case numbers today are irrelevant, we're just starting a bit further along.

I think the UK is a good example, at the moment they are pretty much at 80% double jabbed (by our metric, eligible population) and they're doing just fine. My friend over there is currently on holidays elsewhere in Europe.

WE NEED TO STOP THE FEARMONGERING! VACCINATION IS THE WAY OUT!

Yes.

100% agree vaccination is the way to go.

UK has opened up successfully. However I am personally not sure if 80%fully vaxxed is high enough. UK has also reportedly has had about 20% having had covid already. The hospitalisations etc will be the real measure of when our vaccination rate is high enough.


We all need to open up, and all will open up. I just think that the Doherty Report is only a guide, and a guide on particular assumptions. And from I can read in NSW those assumptions are not the ones NSW is actually going with.

So I fully believe NSW will open up. I just do not believe that what they are doing so as per the Doherty model.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes.

100% agree vaccination is the way to go.

UK has opened up successfully. However I am personally not sure if 80%fully vaxxed is high enough. UK has also reportedly has had about 20% having had covid already. The hospitalisations etc will be the real measure of when our vaccination rate is high enough.


We all need to open up, and all will open up. I just think that the Doherty Report is only a guide, and a guide on particular assumptions. And from I can read in NSW those assumptions are not the ones NSW is actually going with.

So I fully believe NSW will open up. I just do not believe that are doing so as per the Doherty model.

Technically not as per the Doherty report, probably better described as inspired by the Doherty report but NSW authorities will continue to say based on the Doherty report.......not the first time authorities will fudge things (nor anyone else on this thread or elsewhere)

 

[justinbrett]

Yes.

100% agree vaccination is the way to go.

UK has opened up successfully. However I am personally not sure if 80%fully vaxxed is high enough. UK has also reportedly has had about 20% having had covid already. The hospitalisations etc will be the real measure of when our vaccination rate is high enough.


We all need to open up, and all will open up. I just think that the Doherty Report is only a guide, and a guide on particular assumptions. And from I can read in NSW those assumptions are not the ones NSW is actually going with.

So I fully believe NSW will open up. I just do not believe that what they are doing so as per the Doherty model.

But the Doherty report lists 60K daily cases for Australia, and the UK peak since opening was just slightly over 60K. Adjusted for population differences, 60K for Australia sounds worst case (3x) and probably illustrates the natural immunity some in the UK have.

Also now we will be vaccinating 12+, that 80% is going to cover a lot more people and it won't stop at 80% if we make it mandatory to go to the pub.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Sydney commuter numbers rise significantly despite pleas to stay at home​

Almost 90,000 extra trips were taken on Sydney’s public transport on Wednesday compared to the same time last month, despite pleas for people to stay home as cases continue to climb one week before the lockdown is scheduled to end.

More than 313,000 trips were taken on Sydney’s public transport network on Wednesday, up by 88,000 compared to Wednesday, July 21, while an extra six million road traffic movements were also recorded, indicating potentially hundreds of thousands additional car trips.

Sydney commuter numbers on the rise despite pleas to stay at home

Almost 90,000 extra trips were taken on Sydney’s public transport on Wednesday compared to the same time last month.

www.smh.com.au

How many extra daily vaccines are we delivering compared to this same day last month then?

90,000 extra trips = 45,000 extra return trips. Remember we have tradies back to work now (permitted).

If you want people to get vaccinated, they have to get there somehow.

Another alarmist piece of garbage.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

honestly the way the 'outbreak' is going currently is completely fine, if you look at the image below, compared to how the rest of the world has gone with delta its incredibly light

View attachment 255987

Again I am an advocate of opening up.

 

[Batterytraveller]

I think this a pretty measured summary of where we are, how we got here and how we’re not quite ready to abandon Covid-zero yet.

Should we give up on COVID zero?

We’re currently in the midst of one of the most challenging times during the pandemic in Australia. But until most of us are vaccinated, we can’t live with the virus.

www.theage.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Wastewater detections had been indicating for a while that there was a likely case in Shepparton. Ditto for Lakes Entrance It looks like they have at last found the one in Shepparton

​

By Simon Smale, ABC News​

​

Positive case recorded in Shepparton​

Victoria's COVID-19 outbreak has spread to regional Victoria, as the state records 55 new locally acquired cases.​

Goulburn Valley Health has confirmed a new case of COVID-19 in Shepparton in Victoria's north.​

Chief executive Matt Sharp says the person is currently at home and isolating. ​

Traces of Covid-19 have been detected in wastewater in the area recently.​

​

 

[hydrabyss]

She mentioned curfews happening this morning at the NSW presser. Whats next ring of steel.

 

[mbell1510]

So instead of greater freedom at the end of August, Gladys has put more restrictions in place. Masks worn everywhere, curfew and another month of lockdown. Not because of health advice, but because of the police. We've officially lost the plot in Australia with reasonable measures.
Sucks for areas like mine in Sydney that have had no cases at all in the past month.

 

[Pushka]

So instead of greater freedom at the end of August, Gladys has put more restrictions in place. Masks worn everywhere, curfew and another month of lockdown. Not because of health advice, but because of the police. We've officially lost the plot in Australia with reasonable measures.
Sucks for areas like mine in Sydney that have had no cases at all in the past month.

What? We have no cases in SA entirely and we have to wear masks everywhere and have had to do so for weeks. Yet no community transmission for over a month. Can’t believe this wasn’t mandated before.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Hard to believe anyone would have a problem with a state wide mask mandate. Or that it hadn't been in place before!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So instead of greater freedom at the end of August, Gladys has put more restrictions in place. Masks worn everywhere, curfew and another month of lockdown. Not because of health advice, but because of the police. We've officially lost the plot in Australia with reasonable measures.
Sucks for areas like mine in Sydney that have had no cases at all in the past month.

Don't stress double vaccinated will get freedoms at 6m jabs - details to be announced next week

 

[justinbrett]

Hard to believe anyone would have a problem with a state wide mask mandate. Or that it hadn't been in place before!

It has, they just weren't needed outside unless you were in the LGAs of concern.

Still not mandatory for exercise, which is common sense.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The body language and tone of all speaking at the NSW Presser today really tells you all you need to know.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Curfew announced for Greater Sydney​

The NSW Government has announced a curfew will be put in place in the parts of Sydney most affected by COVID-19.

The curfew comes into force on Monday and will apply between 9pm and 5am.

The new rules apply to the Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Bayside, Blacktown, Burwood, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, coughberland, Fairfield, Georges River, Liverpool, Parramatta, Strathfield, and some suburbs of Penrith.

Announcements on schools and plan after reaching 6 million jabs due next week​

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said news about what happens with two key matters of interest will come next week.

They are what happens with schools and what happens when they reach the 6 million jabs target.

Mask wearing will apply across the state from August 30​

Unless you are exercising, everyone has to wear a mask outdoors across the state.

Ms Berejiklian said this was to avoid instances of fleeting transmission and to aid police with compliance.

Greater Sydney Lockdown will extend until the end of September​

It will not apply Shellharbour and the Central Coast, which will be classified as regional areas.

Ms Berejiklian said this is due to the compliance challenges police have faced and the continuing increase in case numbers.

Police given greater powers​

Commissioner Fuller is now detailing additional powers for Police.

"If someone enters an LGA of concern without excuse, not only will they be fined, they will be sent home and they will have to self isolate for 14 days," he said.

"We also have power to declare a residential apartment a risk and we can lock that apartment down until New South Wales Health has conducted the appropriate tests."

"Permit systems will come in later next week for any authorised workers leaving the LGA's of concern", Commissioner Fuller said.

"You must have a permit and additionally anyone entering the LGA's of concern for a reason of work must carry a permit."

It is an offence now to leave Greater Sydney to go to regional NSW without a reasonable excuse.

 

[Pushka]

The body language and tone of all speaking at the NSW Presser today really tells you all you need to know.

I don’t watch them anymore so your interpretation?