Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

Just on virus spread, the Doherty modelling and opening up...

Doherty Institute expert says modelling for reopening relies on low COVID case numbers - ABC News What does it mean to 'live with the virus'? It depends on whether you live in Victoria or NSW

Its a pipe dream people will be contact tracing when we are 80% double jabbed. Most people will be asymptomatic. Also, I don’t think the public will accept the ongoing requirement for QR codes.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Well this is comforting, not.

Police Commissioner says officers wrongly issuing tickets won’t be held to account

Mick Fuller has called upon the NSW Police Force to “go high-level enforcement” and prioritise enforcing health orders outside being first responders.

www.smh.com.au

Post automatically merged: Aug 20, 2021

Just on virus spread, the Doherty modelling and opening up...

Doherty Institute expert says modelling for reopening relies on low COVID case numbers - ABC News What does it mean to 'live with the virus'? It depends on whether you live in Victoria or NSW

They had their chance, they made their report, nothing has changed since then, no matter what pressure is or isnt being put on them.

 

[justinbrett]

They had their chance, they made their report, nothing has changed since then, no matter what pressure is or isnt being put on them.

Absolutely. The day the plan was announced, NSW had reported many days in the high 200s. It was clear at this point NSW was going south.

Sounds to me like many want to move the goal posts as NSW is absolutely killing it in terms of vaccinations and will get there months before they thought.

 

[antycbr]

Its a pipe dream people will be contact tracing when we are 80% double jabbed. Most people will be asymptomatic. Also, I don’t think the public will accept the ongoing requirement for QR codes.

Basically unless someone is enforcing checkins now in NSW people aren’t bothering it seems.

Nah, you’re not a state. Territory was given to be the national capital and since you won’t be doing that anymore, we’ll have our land back thank you very much.

In return, we’ll bestow the title of Lord Mayor of Canberra on your chief minister.

President Perrotet stands in the National Parliament of NSW and introduces the “Australian Capital and Jervis Bay Territory Retrocession Bill 2023”

 

[Batterytraveller]

Victoria faces full lockdown

Victoria could be plunged into a full lockdown with senior ministers holding urgent meetings on Friday evening to consider imposing further restrictions.

www.news.com.au

Oh well if the Murdoch press is going to call it a ‘freedom plan’ then we don’t even need to wait for the next opinion poll for the PM to twist on the breeze.

 

[justinbrett]

55 for Melbourne

30 of which not in full isolation

 

[SydneySwan]

President Perrotet stands in the National Parliament of NSW and introduces the “Australian Capital and Jervis Bay Territory Retrocession Bill 2023”

I think you mean 'Interim President Mick Fuller'. He has promised to hold 'free and fair' elections prior to 2030.

 

[OATEK]

I can’t read the article, but if that is true it sounds reasonable, but I’m also not sure the other premiers and Scotty (even) are on the same page. The PM seems like he wants to take suppression all the way to the election (or till the next option poll says something different).

It's a proven model.

But really the Feds have bet everything on the vaccines being rolled out by Christmas.

 

[jb747]

Well this is comforting, not.

Nothing new here. Rules only apply to you… It doesn’t matter which group, be it police, politicians, etc….

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Its a pipe dream people will be contact tracing when we are 80% double jabbed. Most people will be asymptomatic. Also, I don’t think the public will accept the ongoing requirement for QR codes.

Not necessarily disagreeing. However it is what the modelling was based on.

• ie Low amount of virus circulating, contact tracing etc all working well., good physical distancing etc

Option A if you will. NSW seems however to be going to open up under different criteria

Option B
For NSW (and indeed Australia) what needs to be modelled is what is the fully vaccinated rate required to open up:

• Without effective (or no) contact tracing,
• Delta well established.
• minimal or no physical distancing measures.

With either Option A or B the important outcome is what is the acceptable number of hospitalisations, severe illnesses and death. This should be the same for both options. If the same success factors are used, then the Option A vaccination rate will be lower than Option B.

So what is the vaccination rate required for Option B? If B is the actual goal, then the vaccination rate for that needs to be the target.

Using the vaccination rate of A but doing B is likely to have a lot more severe health outcomes than A is actually modelled on.



Now I suspect that A was meant to a transitional step to B. ie Get to A, and keep vaccinating (probably only a month or 3 later) so you can then live as in B.

 

[kamchatsky]

This (if true) would be a good start and would also drive vaccine numbers up to - no jab no gym, no jab no pub etc

——

NSW freedom plan for fully vaccinated revealed​

Proposal would see bars, restaurants and gyms reopen to fully inoculated once vaccination coverage reaches 70 per cent.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Good news! This is the biggest carrot for people to get vaccinated. Surely it will push even more people to get themselves vaccinated.

 

[pagingjoan]

Yeah, I realised that today with Port Adelaide (likely end in the top two) playing here tomorrow night.

Are you sure about that?

 

[SydneySwan]

Are you sure about that?

I am tipping them to finish 4th.

 

[justinbrett]

Comparison of Sydney & Melbourne outbreaks


There's debate as to whether the Melbourne outbreak is a continuation of the previous - so if you believe they are the same, follow the orange line, if you believe it's separate, follow the grey line. In reality it's probably somewhere in between due to the initial controls of LD5 but then the explosion causing LD6. Red circles mark the lockdown days.

Either way, I think we can see that Delta is a a new ballgame.

 

[moa999]

They are already negative, today there is immense coverage on GB to resign from some commercial parts of the media for example.

You're more seeing factional politics play out.

The aggressive journo is from Sky News (Murdoch).
Despite the line of questioning, all they really want is Gladys out and replaced by someone from the right (eg. Hazzard) who will be more firmly in the let it rip category.

Very much a be careful what you wish for scenario getting rid of Gladys.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

They had their chance, they made their report, nothing has changed since then, no matter what pressure is or isnt being put on them.

Not really. It was just a model based on defined criteria.

It was in essence a recipe. if you follow this recipe you will cook a certain dish.

If you use a different recipe you will get a different dish.


A different recipe is being used, and but no one has defined what the new dish is meant to be. But it seems that they are hoping that the same dish will result when it most likely will not be.

 

[pagingjoan]

I am tipping them to finish 4th.

We will find out in a few hours!

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Not really. It was just a model based on defined criteria.

It was in essence a recipe. if you follow this recipe you will cook a certain dish.

If you use a different recipe you will get a different dish.


A different recipe is being used, and but no one has defined what the new dish is meant to be. But it seems that they are hoping that the same dish will result when it most likely will not be.

recipe hasnt changed, delta has done this all over the world, NSW is actually doing fairly well to have a none vertical line of massive increases

 

[Pushka]

Are you sure about that?

You are right. They aren't playing in Adelaide..

Isn't all the data for the various outbreaks predicated on people getting tested? Can we be so sure that people just aren't bothering anymore unless ill or the 'worried well'

 

[lovetravellingoz]

recipe hasnt changed, delta has done this all over the world, NSW is actually doing fairly well to have a none vertical line of massive increases

I am not sure in you have read the Doherty Report or not? But NSW would not seem to be pursing the preferred scenario outlined in it.

I am not saying what NSW should or should not do.

All I am saying is that that model was based on certain things. There is little point stating that one can open up based on the model if you are not following the model. That does not mean that one cannot open up. ie UK has

This should not be confused with the ability to go a different way. Based on the NSW leaks NSW is going a different way. I just think it is silly to pretend that it is doing so based on the Doherty Report when if the reports are accurate it clearly is not the case. The path (recipe) that NSW is seemingly is on is not the one mapped out in the Doherty Report.