Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Milboo]

Is it possible for this thread not to continue descending into detailed vaccination discussion?

 

[ayebee]

It's not "whatever" and it's not "some political urgings", it's literally the ATAGI advice.

ATAGI continues to recommend a shorter interval of 4 to 8 weeks between the first and second doses of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca in an outbreak (versus the routine 12-week interval that provides optimal longer-term protection) so that maximal protection against COVID-19 can be achieved earlier.

sorry if my flippancy offended you.
Maybe I should have said "information in the media" but for me it was usually what a politician was saying as I never bothered going to the Atagi website.

Either way, if we had known efficacy was only 55% at 9 weeks (ie beyond the 8 weeks = whatever) we would not have bothered presenting at the vax centre. Makes you wonder though just how effective the vaccine is at 4 weeks, and whether changing the advice was derived from the best outcome for an individual or to transition a population for epidemiological purposes.

 

[justinbrett]

Federal CHO Paul Kelly just said the covid zero strategy is dead.

Also implied the Doherty modelling supports the NSW strategy, regardless of the starting point it was always about exponential growth and protecting people from hospitalisation and death. But will be updated.

Emphasised that WA agreed to the plan several weeks ago.

 

[justinbrett]

sorry if my flippancy offended you.
Maybe I should have said "information in the media" but for me it was usually what a politician was saying as I never bothered going to the Atagi website.

Either way, if we had known efficacy was only 55% at 9 weeks (ie beyond the 8 weeks = whatever) we would not have bothered presenting at the vax centre. Makes you wonder though just how effective the vaccine is at 4 weeks, and whether changing the advice was derived from the best outcome for an individual or to transition a population for epidemiological purposes.

The data is unclear. Studies are now showing AZ has a longer lasting efficacy than Pfizer.

The phrase “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good” applies here. Follow the health advice, get both jabs.

 

[Spongbob]

Is it possible for this thread not to continue descending into detailed vaccination discussion?

And many other "off topic" issues?

This thread is similar to a virus: it grows exponentially and is becoming unhelpful.

 

[justinbrett]

And many other "off topic" issues?

This thread is similar to a virus: it grows exponentially and is becoming unhelpful.

Unlike covid, you can choose not to engage with this thread. Simply ignore and move on.

 

[straitman]

[Mod hat]
Remember the limits become blurred as discussion progresses.

Please just let the mods monitor the thread.

If you have and issue then use the report function.

Thanks. [/Mod hat]

 

[jakeseven7]

Big NSW / QLD anti lockdown protesters apparently trying to storm the QLD border?! Wonder if we will see a surge of virus infections from this as well?



———

‘Insanity’: Queensland border decision prompts fury amongst NSW border residents​

Protests have erupted at the border between Queensland and New South Wales over strict new restrictions, with police berated and multiple arrests taking place.

A large and vocal crowd of more than 2000 people gathered at Coolangatta at noon for an anti-lockdown protest. It comes a day after restrictions were tightened for essential workers trying to enter Queensland.

At one point a man arrived on horseback and charged down the street shouting: “Cross the border. Everyone cross the border, they can’t hold all of us.”

Queensland border decision prompts fury

NSW Police have arrested eight people and issued more than 50 penalty infringement notices following protests which erupted at the border between Queensland and New South Wales over strict new restrictions.

www.news.com.au

 

[Must...Fly!]

Federal CHO Paul Kelly just said the covid zero strategy is dead.

Also implied the Doherty modelling supports the NSW strategy, regardless of the starting point it was always about exponential growth and protecting people from hospitalisation and death. But will be updated.

Emphasised that WA agreed to the plan several weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429300895632687105

Go to 9 minutes in.

Finally we are getting some real proper, forceful talk from respected individuals calling out the rubbish from the WA premier in particular.

 

[Must...Fly!]

At one point a man arrived on horseback and charged down the street shouting: “Cross the border. Everyone cross the border, they can’t hold all of us.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429297085157761029

 

[Denali]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429297085157761029

Has anyone checked on Mel Gibson lately... Did he sneak into the country?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Federal CHO Paul Kelly just said the covid zero strategy is dead.

Also implied the Doherty modelling supports the NSW strategy, regardless of the starting point it was always about exponential growth and protecting people from hospitalisation and death. But will be updated.

Emphasised that WA agreed to the plan several weeks ago.

The problem was that the Doherty Institute was asked the wrong question. They modelled what they were asked which was for an outbreak commencing from a Covid Zero starting point, and then to 30 cases and then on.

What we really need to know is what vaccination rate is required for a steady state (in terms of health outcomes) ongoing endemic from Covid19, including any transition phase to get to that steady state.

The Doherty Institute is quite capable of modelling this, and so it will be interesting to see what they are asked to model this time. Presumably these will be a range of scenarios starting with different levels of community spread, rather than virtually no cases.

The other flaw is that it only looked at an 180 day period. As covid looks to be endemic, we are heading towards a living with covid situation, and so we really need a longterm living with covid framework and not just a 180 horizon.

180 days for example is not useful for planning longterm health resources. How many ICU beds to we need on an ongoing basis,. how many outpatient clinics for longterm covid etc.


It will most likely be somewhere around 80%-ish of fully vaccinated adults still in terms of not many interventions.. However the real word of our own hospitals will be ultimate indicator.

Including the effects from vaccinated children would also be interesting to see. so vaccinating children may not be until 2022.

 

[justinbrett]

The problem was that the Doherty Institute was asked the wrong question. They modelled what they were asked which was for an outbreak commencing from a Covid Zero starting point, and then to 30 cases and then on.

What we really need to know is what vaccination rate is required for a steady state (in terms of health outcomes) ongoing endemic from Covid19, including any transition phase to get to that steady state.

The Doherty Institute is quite capable of modelling this, and so it will be interesting to see what they are asked to model this time. Presumably these will be a range of scenarios starting with different levels of community spread, rather than virtually no cases.

The other flaw is that it only looked at an 180 day period. As covid looks to be endemic, we are heading towards a living with covid situation, and so we really need a longterm living with covid framework and not just a 180 horizon.

180 days for example is not useful for planning longterm health resources. How many ICU beds to we need on an ongoing basis,. how many outpatient clinics for longterm covid etc.


It will most likely be somewhere around 80%-ish of fully vaccinated adults still in terms of not many interventions.. However the real word of our own hospitals will be ultimate indicator.

Including the effects from vaccinated children would also be interesting to see. so vaccinating children may not be until 2022.

But as Paul Kelly said, the starting point is inconsequential when you’re dealing with exponential growth. He has faith in the current modelling (as do I for what it’s worth)

 

[Must...Fly!]

But as Paul Kelly said, the starting point is inconsequential when you’re dealing with exponential growth. He has faith in the current modelling (as do I for what it’s worth)

I agree, this is where I get stuck on the modelling discussion. The difference between a zero starting point and a 1,000 starting point must be what, a few weeks or a month at most, with a relatively open economy?

 

[ayebee]

The data is unclear. Studies are now showing AZ has a longer lasting efficacy than Pfizer.

The phrase “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good” applies here. Follow the health advice, get both jabs.

we are getting the second at 12 weeks.

good to hear re AZ efficacy

 

[trevella]

The difference between a zero starting point and a 1,000 starting point must be what, a few weeks or a month at most, with a relatively open economy?

Exactly. Allowing also for additional immunity due to natural infections.

The modeling is little more than a foundation for discussion. By far the most heavily weighted input to the updated modeling at the time Australia reaches (say) 80% vaccination will be the observables between now and then, rendering much of what we currently assume redundant.

In other words, may as well just keep watching what happens rather than fretting about the government's models.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But as Paul Kelly said, the starting point is inconsequential when you’re dealing with exponential growth. He has faith in the current modelling (as do I for what it’s worth)

I have faith in the modelling. I just think that what they are modelling is not correct.


The growth will not stay as exponential growth. It simply cannot. It will become more a steady state condition of the virus always being there, and moreso once we genuinely open up to free international travel again. No doubt it will fluctuate somewhat, though so far would seem that it will not be as seasonal as the flu is. so they need to model long enough to see when that steady state is likely to occur.


Just on the modelling:

It is not just the computer modelling that you use. It is what inputs you put in, and what you are trying to model.

They only looked at 180 days, and a covid zero starting point..


My view is that they need to model over a longer duration, and also with different numbers of community spread when you start.

Plus also what say might happen with higher vaccination rates. Say 80% of adults and say 50% of children.

 

[justinbrett]

I have faith in the modelling. I just think that what they are modelling is not correct.


The growth will not stay as exponential growth. It simply cannot. It will become more a steady state condition of the virus always being there, and moreso once we genuinely open up to free international travel again. No doubt it will fluctuate somewhat, though so far would seem that it will not be as seasonal as the flu is. so they need to model long enough to see when that steady state is likely to occur.


Just on the modelling:

It is not just the computer modelling that you use. It is what inputs you put in, and what you are trying to model.

They only looked at 180 days, and a covid zero starting point..


My view is that they need to model over a longer duration, and also with different numbers of community spread when you start.

Plus also what say might happen with higher vaccination rates. Say 80% of adults and say 50% of children.

You should apply to be the federal CHO. You clearly know more than him.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

In other words, may as well just keep watching what happens rather than fretting about the government's models.

Yes just need to get as many vaccinated as soon as possible. Our hospitalisations will indicate when we can slow down.

Post automatically merged: Aug 22, 2021

You should apply to be the federal CHO. You clearly know more than him.

Polls and models are sometimes commissioned to get the answer that someone wants.

 

[justinbrett]

Polls and models are sometimes commissioned to get the answer that someone wants.

Or you just don’t like the the answer to the question we’ve all been asking? Maybe because NSW got their first?