Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

They have been allowing people in for funerals (10 guest limit but no limits on funeral comoany staff or church staff) and illegal services. Why does more than 1 person need to be there to stream a service (some have had multiple clergy, choirs, production crews outnumbering a professional film crew). Millions of teenagers worldwide have figured out how to self stream, its not a technically difficult task, no need for more than 1 person to stream.


No the proposal was for 1 person to stream, that is all it takes, no need for multiple people to be crammed in anywhere.

I don't think there's caps on workers to operate a takeaway store or retail click and collect store.

You don't like churches, we get it, I think we can move on.

 

[Seat0B]

The go it alone argument has significant implications for NSW, and for QF. If NSW with 8.1m people is allowed to restart international travel (as a "pilot" you might say) there will be a lot of happy people in this state and a lot of very angry people in other states.

Well I agree with you and hope that the ACT would be regarded as part of NSW in this eventuality, given we have been “lumped in” with NSW already on several occasions so far by QLD, SA and VIC. If we have to take our lumps with NSW, it would be awesome to get some sugar with NSW too! Might even speed up the formal de-federation!

 

[Lynda2475]

I think you're in la la land if you think churches are highly profitable business. Hillsong yes, and a couple of others, the rest are poor.

No do your research. SDA make millions from Weetbix and pay no tax. The land holdings of churches dwarves property tycoons and their land tax waived. Church owned private schools make huge profits again tax free. They can jump immigration queue with special visas for clergy.

They should pay tax like regular businesses and be shut down if they breach restrictions the same way other businesses have been.

If they are poor as you claim, their taxes will be less. But when you dont pay tax, crying poor means people arent buying what you are selling.

 

[justinbrett]

So moving on...

QLD Premier said "Doherty research is only valid for up to 30 cases, we'll have to wait for the new research". But said vaccination is the quickest way out.

So sounds like she's still onboard.

 

[Lynda2475]

That’s bad procurement right there - “ contractor didn’t work weekends”

Certainly is.

 

[burmans]

So moving on...

QLD Premier said "Doherty research is only valid for up to 30 cases, we'll have to wait for the new research". But said vaccination is the quickest way out.

So sounds like she's still onboard.

I'm a bit surprised the Doherty report wasn't asked to model various levels of cases in the first place. It may be hindsight but I can't see how anyone can comfortably predict now what the level of cases would be as at the date we hit those vaccination levels, and even with hindsight should have been clear even when the modelling was asked for that asking for at only one level of transmission was pretty shortsighted. We know this virus is unpredictable, so basing an outcome on just one such prediction would seem to be unwise.

 

[kamchatsky]

They have been allowing people in for funerals (10 guest limit but no limits on funeral comoany staff or church staff) and illegal services. Why does more than 1 person need to be there to stream a service (some have had multiple clergy, choirs, production crews outnumbering a professional film crew). Millions of teenagers worldwide have figured out how to self stream, its not a technically difficult task, no need for more than 1 person to stream.


No the proposal was for 1 person to stream, that is all it takes, no need for multiple people to be crammed in anywhere.

All Places of Worship still need to meet COVID Safe as per state rules (eg. NSW below), this includes specifics for weddings and funerals. They are no different from any other essential organisations to meet such rules.

Places of worship | COVID Safe | NSW Government

Resources and guidance for developing a COVID-19 Safety Plan for your church, meeting house, mosque, synagogue, temple or other place of worship.

www.nsw.gov.au

So even if there is production crew, clergys etc in live streaming, they still need to meet all the social distancing + square meterage + record keeping rules etc.

So there is no reason why as long as Places of Worship meets these rules, they cannot perform live streaming, regardless of whether you like religion or not.

 

[justinbrett]

I'm a bit surprised the Doherty report wasn't asked to model various levels of cases in the first place. It may be hindsight but I can't see how anyone can comfortably predict now what the level of cases would be as at the date we hit those vaccination levels, and even with hindsight should have been clear even when the modelling was asked for that asking for at only one level of transmission was pretty shortsighted. We know this virus is unpredictable, so basing an outcome on just one such prediction would seem to be unwise.

It's months worth of work, the starting case number is just one input that is not a major factor (as has been confirmed by the federal CHO).

Apparently the updated modelling already has an initial finding that there's no significant difference which is why the PM has become very vocal since yesterday.

 

[SydneySwan]

I'm a bit surprised the Doherty report wasn't asked to model various levels of cases in the first place. It may be hindsight but I can't see how anyone can comfortably predict now what the level of cases would be as at the date we hit those vaccination levels, and even with hindsight should have been clear even when the modelling was asked for that asking for at only one level of transmission was pretty shortsighted. We know this virus is unpredictable, so basing an outcome on just one such prediction would seem to be unwise.

Perhaps it is so that the PM can bat off questions with his ‘I have no advice before me at this time’ answer.

 

[kamchatsky]

It's not like religion hasnt inflicted thousands of years of mental health damage. You can practice your faith at home if hou are inclined, your faith doesnt come with privilege.



Yes businesses should comply. Churches are highly profitable busineses who pay no tax, so should be subject to the same rules, and not get off lightly simply because they are a church. Police have forced cafes to close for lesser breaches (taking a mask off when alone in store), yet give this church a slap on the wrist, $5k is nothing when you dont pay tax.

Fact that this church didnt have QR codes up means that even before this lcokdown they were breaching covid safe plan by not tracking who was attending, so they likely were also repeatedly breachijg gathering numbers.

Click and collect and takeaway are low risk, whereas we have many confirmed transmission events at religious services. You cant pray the covid away.

But they ARE following the same rules as any other non-religous organisations. They still need to have a COVID safe plan, still needs to meet all the COVID safe requirements, as per my previous post.

 

[Pushka]

I'm a bit surprised the Doherty report wasn't asked to model various levels of cases in the first place. It may be hindsight but I can't see how anyone can comfortably predict now what the level of cases would be as at the date we hit those vaccination levels, and even with hindsight should have been clear even when the modelling was asked for that asking for at only one level of transmission was pretty shortsighted. We know this virus is unpredictable, so basing an outcome on just one such prediction would seem to be unwise.

At the get go, way back in March 2020, the Doherty modelling did not look at the situation where social distancing etc would impact on the predictions. Those predictions were dire and based on Italy. Also heard last night that thousands of body bags were delivered to a location in SA in preparation back then.

 

[antycbr]

I'm a bit surprised the Doherty report wasn't asked to model various levels of cases in the first place. It may be hindsight but I can't see how anyone can comfortably predict now what the level of cases would be as at the date we hit those vaccination levels, and even with hindsight should have been clear even when the modelling was asked for that asking for at only one level of transmission was pretty shortsighted. We know this virus is unpredictable, so basing an outcome on just one such prediction would seem to be unwise.

Unfortuntately it's ATAGI all over again with the assumption that we would have a zero community transmission utopia.

 

[justinbrett]

PM press conference is fiery. He is crystal clear we should be opening up at 70% and 80%. Journos are asking how he will keep the rogue states in line.

He said at that point lockdowns will be the danger.

 

[burmans]

It's months worth of work, the starting case number is just one input that is not a major factor (as has been confirmed by the federal CHO).

Apparently the updated modelling already has an initial finding that there's no significant difference which is why the PM has become very vocal since yesterday.

Can't agree. I've done a fair bit of modelling and what you always do is build your model so you can adjust the variable factors to see what effect this has on the outcome, that's what modelling is.

Your own answer contradicts your own argument, it's months of work but they came up with an answer in days when asked?

 

[OATEK]

NSW 818, 3 deaths

 

[justinbrett]

Can't agree. I've done a fair bit of modelling and what you always do is build your model so you can adjust the variable factors to see what effect this has on the outcome, that's what modelling is.

Your own answer contradicts your own argument, it's months of work but they came up with an answer in days when asked?

Take it up with Doherty then. I think they might have done more modelling than you.

The point was the number of cases is not an important factor. The modelling indicated up to 60K cases a day, so starting with 10K cases total is not as a dramatic difference as it may seem. The virus will not keep spreading exponentially until everbody gets it, that's the point.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Can't agree. I've done a fair bit of modelling and what you always do is build your model so you can adjust the variable factors to see what effect this has on the outcome, that's what modelling is.

Up to a point. Sometimes changing your assumptions or new real world data breaks the model and you have to fix the model to get sensible answers. Models have to evolve to fit reality. After all models are just a shared fiction that help us make better decisions (and can be proven wrong).

in any case it doesn’t really matter, what matters (and has mattered since January) is getting as many people vaxxed as quickly as possible and then hoping for the best.

 

[burmans]

Take it up with Doherty then. I think they might have done more modelling than you.

The point was the number of cases is not an important factor. The modelling indicated up to 60K cases a day, so starting with 10K cases total is not as a dramatic difference as it may seem. The virus will not keep spreading exponentially until everbody gets it, that's the point.

My concern was never with Doherty, they answered the question they were asked and it’s clear from their quick response they had built their model to be able to adjust.

As for your last point, how do we know that cases is not a factor without actually testing that hypothesis? Fortunately, unlike yourself, the government and Doherty thought it necessary to go back and check not just make the claim.

 

[justinbrett]

My concern was never with Doherty, they answered the question they were asked and it’s clear from their quick response they had built their model to be able to adjust.

As for your last point, how do we know that cases is not a factor without actually testing that hypothesis? Fortunately, unlike yourself, the government and Doherty thought it necessary to go back and check not just make the claim.

I’m quoting what they’ve said. The CHO said it’s a tweak to the model. He had a whole press conference about it yesterday.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser:

• 5 on ventilators.
• Many in ICU are under 50

Jeroen Weimar: 71 Cases
14,000 primary contacts

Linked cases

• 14 Shepparton - 36 in total now
• 10 Newport cluster
• 8 Mycentre cluster
• 5 Royal Melbourne Hospital cluster
• 12 Household contacts linked to various known other clusters

No new cases found in the StKilda area.

22 New Under Investigation cases

• These are in many locations including Essendon West, Camberwell, Thornbury, Fitzroy North, Sorrento (Mornington Peninsula)
• One in Camberwell- which is where wastewater had been pinging for a while

Younger men in the Newport area are a cohort of concern as cases have kept emerging from this geographic area.