Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

A positive passenger going straight home could introduce this into the community.

We need to get away from thinking "could" and replace it with "is likely to".

Zero risk acceptance is dangerous to society.

 

[TonyHancock]

I could get run over by a bus this morning

Nah, you are in lockdown, you can't go out! See there is always a positive.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

If Australia was open to incoming arrivals without quarantine, and there is a new super-variant, the first question is : does the current vaccination work against it?

If it does, then keep moving along......

If we are unsure, then maybe test up to 7 days hotel quarantine, 7 days home quarantine until day 14 test result to exit.

If not, then 14 days hotel quarantine until day 14 test result to exit (stay free until a certain date).

 

[burmans]

An example of why we potentially still need hotel Q: New variant ‘worse than Delta’

Just when we allowed the Springboks into Queensland too.

 

[ketsuzei]

An example of why we potentially still need hotel Q: New variant ‘worse than Delta’

A positive passenger going straight home could introduce this into the community.

Ridiculous scaremongering, both the article itself and the way you cite it.

moves nearly “twice as fast”... oh wait, nothing to do with infectiousness.

And then the screaming heading:

Covid variant ‘more infectious than the Delta variant’​

What? Where? Oh wait...

“Within two, three, four months we’re going to have another variant and that variant’s going to be more infectious than the Delta variant.”

 

[Saab34]

Quite a bit of discussion in Victoria about lockdown extension and some freedoms that the government is going to ‘look at’

I hate to break it to you, but expect to be disappointed. Mystery cases are trending north, on par with Sydney in July. They are not going to trade freedoms for potentially overloading the Health System by even 1%.

Sydney is clearly going to explode in the next 8-12 weeks on the Health System front, and the cases front. Andrews will want to be seen as someone who has protected his state, when fast forward to two months, when Sydney’s Health system is crushed and cases are 5000+. While the second bit there might not be as relevant, the first part is.

At best, Regional might be cut off however they need to work out how to Protect that.

 

[dairyfloss]

Nah, you are in lockdown, you can't go out! See there is always a positive.

But then this could happen



See what I did, there?

 

[burmans]

The UK stats show that when they got to 75% single dose/50% double the case rate stabilised and then started to drop quite rapidly. Sydney is probably less than 2 weeks from this point. Then hospitalisation peek would lag but probably a month at most.

 

[justinbrett]

The UK stats show that when they got to 75% single dose/50% double the case rate stabilised and then started to drop quite rapidly. Sydney is probably less than 2 weeks from this point. Then hospitalisation peek would lag but probably a month at most.

Which is what the modelling that made the media yesterday showed and lines up with what Gladys said about October being the hardest month for the health system.

In terms of cases we're not far from the peak. I think it might get to 3000 or so then start going back down.

If the curfews and extra restrictions work it might come down sooner, but there's no sign of that so far so I'd say they did not do much.

 

[justinbrett]

Slight dip, 1164 in Sydney.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The UK stats show that when they got to 75% single dose/50% double the case rate stabilised and then started to drop quite rapidly. Sydney is probably less than 2 weeks from this point. Then hospitalisation peek would lag but probably a month at most.

That's Alpha right? And UK had some underlying immunity from actual infections.

Hopeful evidence of what may come to NSW.

 

[drron]

Just when we allowed the Springboks into Queensland too.

Now is the chance of a lifetime for the Wallabies.As the article says this new variant has been found in NZ.
So schedule 2 tests against the All Blacks in Australia and then refuse them permission to come so we win on a forfeit.

Yes this post is tongue in cheek but as sensible as some of the suggestions on here.
My guess is newer variations of the vaccines after this report are already being researched.Stop worrying.

 

[Princess Fiona]

The UK stats show that when they got to 75% single dose/50% double the case rate stabilised and then started to drop quite rapidly. Sydney is probably less than 2 weeks from this point. Then hospitalisation peek would lag but probably a month at most.

That's Alpha right? And UK had some underlying immunity from actual infections.

Hopeful evidence of what may come to NSW.

It’s Delta in the UK.

Watching it closely (family there).
In Scotland the cases are doubling every 7 days. About half of the cases are people under 25 years of age.
Hospitalization rates are rising, now at March 2021 levels.
They have not started immunizing 12-16 and only recently started 16-17years.
NI under similar circumstances.

 

[kyle]

Andrews will want to be seen as someone who has protected his state

That's why I don't understand why the opposition does not push the point of the shadow pandemic - all the mental health issues, relationship breakdowns etc. These need to be balanced with covid deaths.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s Delta in the UK.

Watching it closely (family there).
In Scotland the cases are doubling every 7 days. About half of the cases are people under 25 years of age.
Hospitalization rates are rising, now at March 2021 levels.
They have not started immunizing 12-16 and only recently started 16-17years.
NI under similar circumstances.

So what could the UK experience mean for say NSW's future numbers (cases, hospital, ICU, deaths) ??? and possible timeframes???

Edit: I assume burmans reference to % vaccinated is of eligible 18+

 

[Princess Fiona]

So what could the UK experience mean for say NSW's future numbers (cases, hospital, ICU, deaths) ??? and possible timeframes???

Edit: I assume burmans reference to % vaccinated is of eligible 18+

Too difficult to extrapolate to NSW.
We are attempting to do something that hasn’t really been tested yet.
Vaccinate our way out whilst maintaining lockdowns.
I’d say the Premier’s predictions of high hospital rates in October would be accurate.
I think we are in for a rough ride but we will get there.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I hate to break it to you, but expect to be disappointed.

I am expecting nothing and yet still expect to be disappointed. Overall, just tired.

 

[somebol]

ACT lockdown extended by 2 weeks.

Must say, Andrew Barr is the most patronising of all our first ministers.
The way he speaks, feels like he is talking to children.

 

[TonyHancock]

But then this could happen

View attachment 256853

See what I did, there?

Doesn't count, pre Covid lockdown.

 

[TonyHancock]

The UK stats show that when they got to 75% single dose/50% double the case rate stabilised and then started to drop quite rapidly. Sydney is probably less than 2 weeks from this point. Then hospitalisation peek would lag but probably a month at most.

Agreed, but covid had been relatively widespread in the community to that point so a much higher number with natural immunity than in Australia.

Vaccinate, Vaccinate and Vaccinate!!!