I don't envy those who are working day and night in wildly fudgy statistical driven decisions with an unpredictable, impatient, unforgiving population one iota.
The Vic Government's efforts would to me seem to have in recent times mainly been undone by placing faith in people to do the right thing, but with some critical minorities deciding to not reward that faith. This undermined the hard work of the government and all the many health workers and the vast majority of the general public at large.
In particular:
- The management of the security firms to do their jobs well. Instead they decided to milk the system and to subcontract out the work to others knowing full well that the subcontractors would also seek to to milk the system by not training and supervising their staff properly and to hire others who were content to turn a blind eye and ignore what was was by then pretty well common knowledge with request to physical distancing, and to avoid testing.
- Whomever from the government who should have been auditing and supervising the security contracts, and seemingly did not.
- The above two points allow a spike to emerge, and allowed it to grow.
- A number of people who continued to mix despite knowing that they were either positive or meant to be isolating. This fuelled both the community spread that had not quite gone and the new emerging spike courtesy of the security guards
- That with test being freely available that all those with symptoms would present. Sadly for various reasons a number chose not too including some hotel quarantine security guards.
The perfect storm for the current outbreak was to have these factors occurring at the same time as many rules were being relaxed, and in particular family gathering size.
With widespread and ample testing offered to all including those with no symptoms you would have thought that this would help to locate all, or virtually all of, the infected. But no another kick to the guts with the number of people who refuse to be tested. These refuseniks on top of the other recent human issues have also probably now caused the Vic Government to reflect on how much faith can be bestowed. So with the refusniks in came the suburb lockdowns.
With the apartment towers too came prudent speed to lock things down given the population density and high risk (to the people there) people living there, and that a cluster was emerging. To give people advance notice evidently deemed to risky.
However I personally do not think the BLM marches were a significant factor at all. Potentially yes they could have been, but I suspect that the wearing of masks by most in a outdoor setting probably helped enormously in it not actually being so.
I also think that another factor was with the other states, and indeed Vic too, all on the official stats approaching zero, or being at zero, that a little complacency crept in that it all was just going to happen, and was only a matter of time.
I do have faith that things will be turned around. It will not be easy, but I think that the Government will have a little bit more of a firmer edge from now on.
The whole idea was that hot spots should be contained early before they had a chance to spread uncontrollably., I think NSW did a good job with both Bondi and the Western suburbs hot spots - Early action is so much more effective.
(But if you react to that instinct all the time, no-one will want to work for you. 
