Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jrfsp]

Hope NSW Government/Health are sensible enough to ask for AusMAT now to cover until end November.........with Vic not that far behind - should get in early with the request.

Arnt AUSMAT still in western NSW?

Another aboriginal person died in western NSW.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yeah probably. As I said I'm not fundamentally against the way the UK opened up but also feel we should learn from the mistakes of others. They opened up at about 75% fully vaccinated and the road to 80% has been a hard slog. One of the main reasons in my view was that the imperative to get fully vaccinated disappeared almost overnight and we can learn from this with targeted restrictions particularly of unvaccinated people.

Yes, and this is still a possibility for NSW - speed past 80% double dose, but then give unvaccinated freedoms at that point might pull a handbrake - I think for NSW the first dose rates are so high, so long the NSW Premier doesn't talk much more until end of September, it will give NSW every chance to get well into the 90%.

PS The other 'handbrake' is 12-15 - yes it encourages vaccinations in the population, but it might slow down the % uptake of the 16+ category. 12-15 officially start 13/9, but unofficially has already started.

Post automatically merged: Sep 6, 2021

Arnt AUSMAT still in western NSW?

Another aboriginal person died in western NSW.

I believe there are some there - but I would guess there is a larger contingent available???

 

[justinbrett]

I'm guessing the LGA Reffs would vary quite a bit

I think the more you segment the data the less accurate it is. None of these LGAs are islands.

When 85% of the state cases are in these LGAs of concern, the statewide R eff is useful.

 

[jrfsp]

I believe there are some there - but I would guess there is a larger contingent available???

I wouldnt bet on it....there are 600 trained AusMAT professionals available across Australia but generally the team is drawn on people already employed in health care roles so pulling a larger team draws them away from their main roles.

 

[burmans]

An interesting read and on a personal level was satisfying to see their conclusions were very similar to my own despite the attempts of some on here to throw shade. Yes, fully prepared to admit I'm not an expert in the field but am a great believer in information-based decision making and despite the shade throwers data is information.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I think what’s also a bit forgotten in the media coverage is the local public health response in the regions and LHDs that are outside the areas of concern.
Whilst NSW Health overall is reporting less on their website, there is a massive operation in the regions to put out the spot fires when cases arise.

We still get daily figures broken down case by case including whether infections or not in the community and all locations visited.
The modeling released today relies on the regional response to keep up adequate TTIQ.
NSW is much more than just Greater Sydney.

 

[jakeseven7]

They will never scare monger lol modelling can't predict how things will happen when restrictions lift because the lifting restrictions probably won't be inputted into the modelling being released today.

I don’t really think it’s scare mongering if they did this but maybe some people would be scared of it… because as restrictions start winding back case numbers will start increasing again….

 

[kpc]

I work in a major teaching hospital in Sydney. I really, really hope the NSW government modelling is correct and accurate, otherwise... . It is not like NSW Health haven't got things wrong before.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think what’s also a bit forgotten in the media coverage is the local public health response in the regions and LHDs that are outside the areas of concern.
Whilst NSW Health overall is reporting less on their website, there is a massive operation in the regions to put out the spot fires when cases arise.

We still get daily figures broken down case by case including whether infections or not in the community and all locations visited.
The modeling released today relies on the regional response to keep up adequate TTIQ.
NSW is much more than just Greater Sydney.

Hmmm...doesn't that make it worse??? If there are notionally no covid ICU in regions (eg because TTIQ "wins" in the regions), then the projected/modelled ICU number is concentrated in Sydney......I have no idea the split of Sydney v regions ICU surge capability.....

Having said that I doubt the published modelling is broken down on Sydney v regions.

I work in a major teaching hospital in Sydney. I really, really hope the NSW government modelling is correct and accurate, otherwise... . It is not like NSW Health haven't got things wrong before.

I have some acquaintances that work or are operational managers in ICU and they are laughing (and not in a good way) at today's modelling. They say for example the black zone should be implemented earlier, etc etc.

 

[jakeseven7]

An interesting read and on a personal level was satisfying to see their conclusions were very similar to my own despite the attempts of some on here to throw shade. Yes, fully prepared to admit I'm not an expert in the field but am a great believer in information-based decision making and despite the shade throwers data is information.

Why you care about what a bunch of frequent flyer enthusiasts think But yes the information is good.

It’s going to be hairy for a bit for NSW.

Thankfully VIC has higher level of vaccinations as a starting point which is an advantage as the cases there increase.

I’d be most worried next about QLD which is most likely to see an incursions soon from NSW and has one of Australia’s lowest vaccination rates.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Why you care about what a bunch of frequent flyer enthusiasts think But yes the information is good.

It’s going to be hairy for a bit for NSW.

Thankfully VIC has higher level of vaccinations as a starting ground which is an advantage as the cases there increase.

I’d be most worried next about QLD which is most likely to see an incursion from NSW and has one of Australia’s lowest vaccination rates.

I think an outbreak can get a first dose pace to reach a 1% increase everyday - so I wouldn't be too worried. Maybe slightly less if the rural/city split is bigger, but it should be a stroll.

 

[antycbr]

Why you care about what a bunch of frequent flyer enthusiasts think But yes the information is good.

It’s going to be hairy for a bit for NSW.

Thankfully VIC has higher level of vaccinations as a starting ground which is an advantage as the cases there increase.

I’d be most worried next about QLD which is most likely to see an incursion from NSW and has one of Australia’s lowest vaccination rates.

I'm also wondering not just that the vaccines are starting to kick in but also there must be starting to run out of people to infect.

The vast majority of people are at home as much as possible and minimising the number of interactions they have with others.

This IMO would contribute to natural ceiling/upper bound of people to infect even within essential workplaces that must stay open?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'm also wondering not just that the vaccines are starting to kick in but also there must be starting to run out of people to infect.

The vast majority of people are at home as much as possible and minimising the number of interactions they have with others.

This IMO would contribute to natural ceiling/upper bound of people to infect even within essential workplaces that must stay open?

Would that be a double dip (covid recesssion/surge)???

 

[Princess Fiona]

Hmmm...doesn't that make it worse??? If there are notionally no covid ICU in regions (eg because TTIQ "wins" in the regions), then the projected/modelled ICU number is concentrated in Sydney......I have no idea the split of Sydney v regions ICU surge capability.....

Having said that I doubt the published modelling is broken down on Sydney v regions.



I have some acquaintances that work or are operational managers in ICU and they are laughing (and not in a good way) at today's modelling. They say for example the black zone should be implemented earlier, etc etc.

Yes it does make it worse if there are outbreaks in the regions/ outside the LGAs of concern
Directly from the report

“
NSW Health Demand Modelling
Overview
► Within the LGAs of concern, cases are expected to continue increasing until mid-September (range of 1,100 to 2,000 per day), when sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity kicks in (alongside maintained restrictions).
► A peak in hospital and ICU utilisation will follow. It is anticipated that between 2,200 and 3,900 people will require hospitalisation.”

The ICU admissions and bed base are from the total NSW capacity.

 

[OATEK]

While the Pascoe read was quite good, it is not as though he offered anything up that would make a difference. Just that the NSW Government should level with it's citizens on where the trajectory is going, which to some extent they did today. NSW has consistently published data every week, and so there is a clear picture of where we have been to inform where we are going.

The simple truth is that there is very little we can do to change the trajectory apart from vaccination. Perhaps barbed wire outside houses might have made a difference in late June/early July, but personally I doubt it. We are where we are, and will have to cope just like every other country around the world has had to. When we get to Christmas I think we will find we have still done better than most.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I work in a major teaching hospital in Sydney. I really, really hope the NSW government modelling is correct and accurate, otherwise... . It is not like NSW Health haven't got things wrong before.

It’s only accurate as a model for the outbreak in Western and Southwestern Sydney LGAs of concern.

The cases are projected solely from those LGAs and then the admissions and ICU beds taken from the NSW Health bed base in its entirety.

So it’s a great model if none of the other outbreaks in Western NSW, Central Coast, Illawarra and Hunter etc overcome TTIQ and start to generate big case numbers and ICU admissions.

I didn’t watch the presser but I assume none of the Journalists actually asked about this.
It’s the elephant in the room really.

 

[justinbrett]

It’s only accurate as a model for the outbreak in Western and Southwestern Sydney LGAs of concern.

The cases are projected solely from those LGAs and then the admissions and ICU beds taken from the NSW Health bed base in its entirety.

So it’s a great model if none of the other outbreaks in Western NSW, Central Coast, Illawarra and Hunter etc overcome TTIQ and start to generate big case numbers and ICU admissions.

I didn’t watch the presser but I assume none of the Journalists actually asked about this.
It’s the elephant in the room really.

In fairness one did - or it might have been yesterday - asking about if they'd need to transfer people from areas like Dubbo into Sydney.

 

[jakeseven7]

I'm also wondering not just that the vaccines are starting to kick in but also there must be starting to run out of people to infect.

The vast majority of people are at home as much as possible and minimising the number of interactions they have with others.

This IMO would contribute to natural ceiling/upper bound of people to infect even within essential workplaces that must stay open?

Of course and as soon as restrictions start easing up go the cases again anyway (just more people protected this time).

 

[burmans]

It’s only accurate as a model for the outbreak in Western and Southwestern Sydney LGAs of concern.

The cases are projected solely from those LGAs and then the admissions and ICU beds taken from the NSW Health bed base in its entirety.

So it’s a great model if none of the other outbreaks in Western NSW, Central Coast, Illawarra and Hunter etc overcome TTIQ and start to generate big case numbers and ICU admissions.

I didn’t watch the presser but I assume none of the Journalists actually asked about this.
It’s the elephant in the room really.

They talked a lot about the whole state being an interconnected network, i.e. yes one of the regions might be overwhelmed but you do still have the option to ship patients around.

 

[Princess Fiona]

They talked a lot about the whole state being an interconnected network, i.e. yes one of the regions might be overwhelmed but you do still have the option to ship patients around.

I know of the network and bed base for ICU, and the inter-hospital retrieval system I was just wondering how the model could account for soaring cases come out of places other than the 12 LGAs and at the same time as their cases are rising.

We have I think 4-6 weeks when the STEP plan is in the Black/ Overwhelmed with just cases arising from the LGAs in that model.

It’s going to be an interesting few months for those of us at the coal face that’s for sure.