Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dairyfloss]

Channel 9 and 2GB today were supposedly referring to October 14th being the date that NSW is working to for pubs to be open to fully vaccinated patrons, with fully vaccinated staff. Has anyone got a proper source or reference on this one? It sits a little ahead of the 70% NSW double vaccinated projection which is currently 19th October, but that's based on averages to date, whereas NSW Health would have forward booking data, and finer detail on imminent supply and distribution (even if we do need to give some Pfizer back for cranky Mark & Dan ).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Channel 9 and 2GB today were supposedly referring to October 14th being the date that NSW is working to for pubs to be open to fully vaccinated patrons, with fully vaccinated staff. Has anyone got a proper source or reference on this one? It sits a little ahead of the 70% NSW double vaccinated projection which is currently 19th October, but that's based on averages to date, whereas NSW Health would have forward booking data, and finer detail on imminent supply and distribution (even if we do need to give some Pfizer back for cranky Mark & Dan ).

No source, but I think some might be using less than 6 weeks from reaching 70% first dose as a marker. There are lots of anecdotal evidence in NSW that a lot of 2nd doses of Pfizer are still being administered at 21 days.

 

[N860CR]

But groups of 30+ gathering together particularly unmasked and circulating does fit that category of idiots to me, particularly if thee attendees don't belief in mask wearing and then go around other sites.

Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t happening in any significant volume. “Spread” is happening in small family/social gatherings and, to be honest, it’s really not reasonable to be restricting this basic right.

Again, time to stop the “idiot” mantra just because people are trying to live their lives. We all have to go back to treating each other reasonably at some point (if this country is capable of ever doing that).

 

[burmans]

Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t happening in any significant volume. “Spread” is happening in small family/social gatherings and, to be honest, it’s really not reasonable to be restricting this basic right.

Again, time to stop the “idiot” mantra just because people are trying to live their lives. We all have to go back to treating each other reasonably at some point (if this country is capable of ever doing that).

I made no comment about how likely it was, merely that the numbers were going down unless we had a superspreader event. The situation you describe would by definition not be a superspreader event, whether its is likely or not was something I never commented on despite this apparent desire of yourself to offer an interpretation which supports you own desire to open up. I never claimed that small gatherings would be a problem nor made any claim any view on how likely larger gatherings were, please stop trying to (deliberately?) misinterpret what I say.

As for mantra's the 'just let us live our lives and disregard the impacts on others', this is also just as much of a mantra. I'm in the middle, the cautious opening up group, so its fairly easy to see both sides of this equation, the 'lock us up indefinitely' and the 'just let it go' groups so its pretty easy to see both have their own mantra's here. Not quite as easy when you are in one of those groups and you surround yourself in an echo chamber.

 

[N860CR]

I made no comment about how likely it was, merely that the numbers were going down unless we had a superspreader event. The situation you describe would by definition not be a superspreader event, whether its is likely or not was something I never commented on despite this apparent desire of yourself to offer an interpretation which supports you own desire to open up. I never claimed that small gatherings would be a problem nor made any claim any view on how likely larger gatherings were, please stop trying to (deliberately?) misinterpret what I say.

Sorry, but then I don’t understand what you’re trying to say? I certainly join you in hoping we continue down this path of not having “super spreader” events as is currently the case…. My “desire” to open up would reflect the same desire of the entire population (I would hope, at least).

But yes, you slipped in your little mask rant and had a whine about “idiots” so snaps to you.

 

[ethernet]

NSW numbers stabilized today, we almost have a baseline marker to update predictions. But only because of a hardish lockdown. A+ to the TTIQ tracers. BTW those markers will frighten WA and QLD who are so far behind - especially 70 and up. I do not begrudge Cwth swiping some doses for 1A-Aboriginal, after adjusting for age 12 and up. ACT is being clever - 90%+ vaccination rates for over 70's. 80's almost there. That will save them ICU and admissions/deaths when the wave hits.

Redouble efforts. I despise that management phrase - what - were you sill strolling about when you first doubled efforts? Do we have stats on prior underperformance? This relates to a Blitz bus to vaccinate Western NSW hotspots. Meanwile Qld with some of the lowest vaccination spots (so low they won't disclose, only average) - no blitz buses for them. I scream foreseeable.

NOT being mentioned is positives from essential workers spreading to NSW small towns, gaining speed to. Testing in apparently covid free areas, will reveal bad news. Keep an eye on sewerage fragments.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I made no comment about how likely it was, merely that the numbers were going down unless we had a superspreader event. The situation you describe would by definition not be a superspreader event, whether its is likely or not was something I never commented on despite this apparent desire of yourself to offer an interpretation which supports you own desire to open up. I never claimed that small gatherings would be a problem nor made any claim any view on how likely larger gatherings were, please stop trying to (deliberately?) misinterpret what I say.

As for mantra's the 'just let us live our lives and disregard the impacts on others', this is also just as much of a mantra. I'm in the middle, the cautious opening up group, so its fairly easy to see both sides of this equation, the 'lock us up indefinitely' and the 'just let it go' groups so its pretty easy to see both have their own mantra's here. Not quite as easy when you are in one of those groups and you surround yourself in an echo chamber.

What do you think NSW authorities will do at 80%? If fully vaccinated get to do much more at 70%, I guess I'm asking more about possible applicable rules for the unvaccinated.

 

[burmans]

What do you think NSW authorities will do at 80%? If fully vaccinated get to do much more at 70%, I guess I'm asking more about possible applicable rules for the unvaccinated.

NSW authorities are probably better placed than me to comment but I don’t think they are going to all this effort to integrate vaccination information with the Service NSW app to only use it for a few weeks. So, yes I’d see some rules remaining for a while albeit scaled down.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It seems this news article is reading off a report by the Burnet Institute - which is the author of the NSW modelling (name was on the second slide) released yesterday

Harrowing report paints grim prediction of Covid without lockdown

While the Covid-19 crisis in Sydney continues to escalate a startling new report has revealed how things could have been far worse.

www.news.com.au

Found the relevant Burnet webpage

Initial modelling projections for second epidemic wave in Sydney, NSW

Overview of COVASIM modelling released by NSW Government

burnet.edu.au

Key assumptions for the current projections:​

• Projections were based on data as at 27 August 2021
• The released graphs were of the 12 LGAs of concern, not all of NSW
• Case numbers in projections are 7-day average, not single day numbers
• Hospitalisation numbers were based on an estimated average 18-day stay in hospital
• In the reported scenario, public health restrictions are maintained
• 80 per cent+ first dose coverage is achieved among 16-39 year-olds in the 12 LGAs of concern by early September 2021.

Key findings:

Under current restrictions and projected vaccination numbers, diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved.

1. Daily diagnoses:

- In the LGAs of concern are estimated to peak at a 7-day average of 1,129-1,967 between 13-20 September 2021.

- Across all of greater Sydney, the 7-day average is estimated to peak at 1,219-2,046 between 13-20 September.

However, it is recognised that the modelled estimates of daily diagnosis for the rest of greater Sydney an underestimate of actual current daily diagnosis as they are part of an initial model calibration.

2. There are corresponding estimated peaks in:

• Hospital demand of 2,222-3,938 in the 12 LGAs of concern.
• Hospital demand of 2,286-4,016 across all of greater Sydney.

Please note, Burnet did not provide state-wide estimates of the number of infections. However we are aware that NSW Health has access to a number of models and the peak ICU demand of 947 beds is for the entirety of NSW.

3. Responses implemented so far are estimated to have averted a substantive number of infections and deaths.

• In the 12 LGAs of concern, without any restrictions being introduced or additional Pfizer doses there would have been an estimated 589,817 and 5,808 coughulative diagnoses and deaths respectively over Jun-Dec 2021.
• The restrictions combined with the original vaccine roll-out have averted an estimated 488,020 infections and 4,830 deaths.
• The additional 530,000 Pfizer doses are estimated to have averted an additional 24,267 diagnoses and 254 deaths.

 

[jb747]

The maths are somewhat tenuous, but it would seem to cost in the order of 5-10 million dollars per life saved.

 

[Pushka]

The maths are somewhat tenuous, but it would seem to cost in the order of 5-10 million dollars per life saved.

I read 25 million I think? But that does not take into account, obviously, the hidden costs of this pandemic. That will take years to unfold.

 

[andye]

I read 25 million I think? But that does not take into account, obviously, the hidden costs of this pandemic. That will take years to unfold.

Costs would come down when you factor in many thousands of ICU cases and the non-covid lives that would be lost due to stroke, heart disease and trauma with the system being overwhelmed

 

[Pushka]

Costs would come down when you factor in many thousands of ICU cases and the non-covid lives that would be lost due to stroke, heart disease and trauma with the system being overwhelmed

And possibly be balanced by loss of ‘health and productivity’ through mental health issues and people not following up on relevant health issues. Right now I can’t see a GP despite negative Covid test because I have a persistent cough. Has to be Telehealth. So they can’t see or examine my throat to diagnose tonsillitis which is my conclusion after 10 days and not viral. How is that good?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t happening in any significant volume. “Spread” is happening in small family/social gatherings and, to be honest, it’s really not reasonable to be restricting this basic right.

Again, time to stop the “idiot” mantra just because people are trying to live their lives. We all have to go back to treating each other reasonably at some point (if this country is capable of ever doing that).

Agree. It's not reasonable to restrict this basic right. If people had stayed at home initially we wouldn't be in this situation now. It would have been over and done.

People *have* to have extended family Sunday lunch with mum and dad, then complain when their kids can't go to school? Or they can't go to work?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Agree. It's not reasonable to restrict this basic right. If people had stayed at home initially we wouldn't be in this situation now. It would have been over and done.

People *have* to have extended family Sunday lunch with mum and dad, then complain when their kids can't go to school? Or they can't go to work?

It's a bit sick how the government have engineered a situation where it's citizen blaming citizen for loss of basic rights isn't it...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's a bit sick how the government have engineered a situation where it's citizen blaming citizen for loss of basic rights isn't it...

I dunno how else to describe it. The minority doing the wrong thing lead to the rest of us having extended lockdowns.

Who else is to blame? People want the government to do more, something like they did in China? I think that's worse.

 

[Bundy Bear]

Victoria and NSW holding steady.
VIC 221
NSW 1480

 

[dairyfloss]

NSW today:

 

[MelMel]

And possibly be balanced by loss of ‘health and productivity’ through mental health issues and people not following up on relevant health issues. Right now I can’t see a GP despite negative Covid test because I have a persistent cough. Has to be Telehealth. So they can’t see or examine my throat to diagnose tonsillitis which is my conclusion after 10 days and not viral. How is that good?

I’m surprised they can do this. My GP has a little area outside around the end of the building which is undercover. Anyone who is suspect is attended to there by a GP in face mask, face shield and gown. I’ve seen little children with coughs go there.

 

[oz_mark]

It's a bit sick how the government have engineered a situation where it's citizen blaming citizen for loss of basic rights isn't it...

Indeed. "Illegal family gathering" is an interesting phrase......