Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

Copy/Paste NSW situation, basically.

It’s almost like it’s a virus that follows the same path and ignores political grandstanding…

 

[justinbrett]

Dark purple line is VIC, blue line is NSW.

Nothing here to suggest it won't end up like NSW - it's a bit in front actually. Also starting with a hard lockdown and a higher vaccination rate (compared to similar time in NSW), so not many levers left.

 

[OATEK]

Agree. It's not reasonable to restrict this basic right. If people had stayed at home initially we wouldn't be in this situation now. It would have been over and done.

People *have* to have extended family Sunday lunch with mum and dad, then complain when their kids can't go to school? Or they can't go to work?

"If people had stayed at home initially" we would have had no food and other necessities.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Dark purple line is VIC, blue line is NSW.

Nothing here to suggest it won't end up like NSW - it's a bit in front actually. Also starting with a hard lockdown and a higher vaccination rate (compared to similar time in NSW), so not many levers left.
View attachment 257818

Bit like a story of the boy who cried wolf from the government with the people of Victoria. I'm not surprised.

 

[jakeseven7]

Copy/Paste NSW situation, basically.

Of course it will be, VIC just has the vaccination advantage starting at a higher vaccinated rate than NSW did before their outbreak exploded.

 

[ethernet]

There is a bit of Negative news on Greg Hunt and delays in stitching a deal for Pfizer. Below are some interesting links putting things in perspective. All while cooking up an inversion deal! Maybe Australia was treated like Argentina.

The lot more of it would be unilateral secrecy agreements on price and immunity.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-08/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-meeting-

health-minister/100443360

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/world/europe/vaccine-secret-

contracts-prices.html

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/lawrie-mcfarlane-

secret-correspondence-shows-pfizer-biontech-tried-to-cash-in-on-

pandemic-1.24291196

https://www.legalbusiness.co.uk/blogs/us-law-firms-secret-deal-weapon-

blunted-as-pfizer-pulls-plug-on-160bn-inversion-bid/

https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2021-04-19/pfizer-backs-

down-over-asset-seizing-clause-in-south-africa-vaccine-deal

'Held to ransom': Pfizer plays hardball in Covid-19 vaccine negotiations with Latin American countries

Pfizer has been accused of “bullying” Latin American governments during negotiations to acquire its Covid-19 vaccine, and the company has asked some countries to put up sovereign assets as a guarantee against the cost of any future legal cases.

www.statnews.com

vaccine-negotiations-in-latin-america/

Explains why Australian ministers had a delay.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Dark purple line is VIC, blue line is NSW.

Nothing here to suggest it won't end up like NSW - it's a bit in front actually. Also starting with a hard lockdown and a higher vaccination rate (compared to similar time in NSW), so not many levers left.
View attachment 257818

Except the current outbreak (or Third Wave as labelled in the news article) is actually what is described as Vic Delta 1+2 on that graph. The Pink Line and not the purple Line.

Delta 2(Purple) being the result of restarting the graph due to one day having zero found infections (cases). An arbitrary construct that means nothing. The Vic Second Wave had several donut days too and no one restarted the graph there and there were 3 strains involved. One the dominant one.

If you graph up the NSW Outbreak because of every mystery case starting a new transmission chain/ cluster you would probably have hundreds of different graphs by now.


The next day the teacher, her partner and parents (plus a different unrelated group) who had all been infectious for 8-10 days prior and by the time they returned a positive test result, and were all placed in immediate 14 day quarantine, they had already infected a large number of people at Al Taqwa, 2 other schools, Newport Football Club and opponents, Caroline Springs Shopping Centre and a sprinkling of other locations. Probably over a hundred people.

They are all just cases in the one wave.

There was a mystery case or two possibly between the traffic controller (or their partner) but it is the same outbreak and that transmission was over a week before "Donut Day".



With this current wave most cases stem from the delivery driver incursion. There is a possible cluster of ten cases linked to a later Qantas Flight, though they may have been infected after flying in rather than in Sydney.





A case is but a found infection. Infections have been flowing since the removalists arrived. When the cases were found depends on when they got tested. Infections occurred when they got within range of a contagious person.

 

[justinbrett]

Except the current outbreak (or Third Wave as labelled in the news article) is actually what is described as Vic Delta 1+2 on that graph. The Pink Line and not the purple Line.

Delta 2(Purple) being the result of restarting the graph due to one day having zero found infections (cases). An arbitrary construct that means nothing. The Vic Second Wave had several donut days too and no one restarted the graph there and there were 3 strains involved. One the dominant one.

If you graph up the NSW Outbreak because of every mystery case starting a new transmission chain/ cluster you would probably have hundreds of different graphs by now.


The next day the teacher, her partner and parents (plus a different unrelated group) who had all been infectious for 8-10 days prior and by the time they returned a positive test result would already have infected a large number of people at Al Taqwa, 2 other schools, Newport Football Club and opponents, Caroline Springs Shopping Centre and a sprinkling of other locations. Probably over a hundred people.

There was a mystery case or two possibly between the traffic controller (or their partner) but it is the same outbreak.



With this current wave most cases stem from the delivery driver incursion. There is a possible cluster of ten cases linked to a later Qantas Flight, though they may have been infected after flying in rather than in Sydney.

View attachment 257822

It's academic really - future projection is based on the current case load and R eff, arguing about where D0 is doesn't change anything. Point being the R eff in Vic was near 2 just a few days ago and is still over 1.6. NSW was never above 1.5 with more than 100 cases.

I'm not here to have a NSW vs VIC argument, just to talk about the numbers.

 

[ethernet]

News: Vaccine Passports on the way in. NSW/Gladys says NSW will open the airports and home quarantine when 80% fully vaccinated. Perhaps possible mid October. If vaccinated here. And using a locally developed face recognition app. Sounds fair to me. However I am not aware of any Australian travel insurance, or if local airlines will play games again to discourage travel.

 

[jase05]

News: Vaccine Passports on the way in. NSW/Gladys says NSW will open the airports and home quarantine when 80% fully vaccinated. Perhaps possible mid October. If vaccinated here. And using a locally developed face recognition app. Sounds fair to me. However I am not aware of any Australian travel insurance, or if local airlines will play games again to discourage travel.

There was some talk over here that some states aswell as the Feds were happy with the SA app that has been trialling and would look to use it in other states

 

[Must...Fly!]

There is a bit of Negative news on Greg Hunt and delays in stitching a deal for Pfizer. Below are some interesting links putting things in perspective. All while cooking up an inversion deal! Maybe Australia was treated like Argentina.

If I were a senior government minister or bureaucrat there is no way known in a million years I would EVER sign ANY form of NDA issued to me by a potential supplier without having my own legal team check it and negotiate it first. The stories against Mr Hunt today were bizarre to me.

If the government were playing hard ball over cost of a few cents per dose or something then they should be absolutely condemned. However I will never condemn due process and careful consideration of legal documentation. In fact I commend it. I have personally witnessed the waste of almost $100,000 of public money on equipment that was totally unnecessary and unscoped for the purpose, purely because of pressure from supplier and the financial side. Small fry money obviously but that isn't the point.

 

[ethernet]

It's academic really - future projection is based on the current case load and R eff, arguing about where D0 is doesn't change anything. Point being the R eff in Vic was near 2 just a few days ago and is still over 1.6. NSW was never above 1.5 with more than 100 cases.

I'm not here to have a NSW vs VIC argument, just to talk about the numbers.

Excellent graphs. I hope they are wrong. Because Victoria will want to export hospital cases to NSW, and Christmas shopping is grim for Victoria, and possible for NSW. AMA and hospital staff will hit the roof . Its should all be about Hospital burdens. I pity those waiting for surgery.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's academic really - future projection is based on the current case load and R eff, arguing about where D0 is doesn't change anything. Point being the R eff in Vic was near 2 just a few days ago and is still over 1.6. NSW was never above 1.5 with more than 100 cases.

I'm not here to have a NSW vs VIC argument, just to talk about the numbers.

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View attachment 257833

If it is just about the numbers, then the Reff in Vic has been trending down and has now dropped to 1.4. Though smaller cases numbers make Reff a less relevant measure as the number will tend to bounce around somewhat.

In another week we should have more of a handle on how much that Protest on 20 Aug with over 4000 attending, pushed up the Reff.
And protesters are not the type to go and get tested either, and so it is more a generation or two of transmission before people probably started to go and get tested.




However you keep featuring a supposed "second" outbreak when there is only one outbreak. It is just that found infections (cases) dropped off for a while due to symptomatic people not presenting for testing for over a week. The infections were occurring. That the teacher did not get tested till 5 August does not alter that fact that many people were being infected in the week prior.

 

[ethernet]

If I were a senior government minister or bureaucrat there is no way known in a million years I would EVER sign ANY form of NDA issued to me by a potential supplier without having my own legal team check it and negotiate it first. The stories against Mr Hunt today were bizarre to me.

If the government were playing hard ball over cost of a few cents per dose or something then they should be absolutely condemned. However I will never condemn due process and careful consideration of legal documentation. In fact I commend it. I have personally witnessed the waste of almost $100,000 of public money on equipment that was totally unnecessary and unscoped for the purpose, purely because of pressure from supplier and the financial side. Small fry money obviously but that isn't the point.

Agree. It would be corrupt behavior. And to keep the NDA's existence secret, another black mark. Looks like Pfizer's PR job is rubbing salt into the wounds of a gagged minister.

I remember in the 1970's the Cwth ordered 1000's of cars off Leyland to preserve the Australian car industry. And the Leyland Marina (POS) broke down factory new 5km away from pickup. Then the aircraft landing radar system. Hughs or the French mob? Nevermind Hughs lost track of heavys that just popped off the ATC screen faster than a speeding BUK. Minster Beasley on a 1% electoral margin was unhappy.

 

[justinbrett]

If it is just about the numbers, then the Reff in Vic has been trending down and has now dropped to 1.4. Though smaller cases numbers make Reff a less relevant measure as the number will tend to bounce around somewhat.

In another week we should have more of a handle on how much that Protest on 20 Aug with over 4000 attending, pushed up the Reff.
And protesters are not the type to go and get tested either, and so it is more a generation or two of transmission before people probably started to go and get tested.

So sticking my by statement that I don't what to have an argument.

Absolutely agree that Reff less relevant with small caseload - Victoria has had a high R eff (around 2) with cases more than 100 a day. NSW never had that. Not entirely sure there's proof the increase in R eff can be blamed on the protest, but not all that relevant.

That being said, I am sure the R eff will continue to go down closer to NSW levels - but even then it's not going to be easy street.

I don't care whether you want to classify it as one outbreak or two, it makes no difference to what we're talking about. I'm obviously not the only one who has this view since coviddata plots 2 as distinct.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Using an Reff to try and predict the future when the population size of infections is very small is futile. In Victoria as yet that population is not statistically meaningful.



A Reff does not have any real meaning when the number of cases is small, which it still is in Victoria. They simply bounce around too much.

ie NSW hits 2.5 early on, fluctuated somewhat, but then once the volumes have risen it has smoothed out a lot as the population size of found infections became larger.

Also Reff is not actually calculated from the actual number of infections are that is not known. With Covid it is estimated from found infections cases. So the Reff you see published is effected by what is found, rather than what actually is happening

So for example when the Al Taqwa Teacher was found in Victoriathe Reff rapidly became 4. In the period she was infectious it mas in the main about 0.4.

But neither number were the true Reff. Infections were actually much higher before she was found, and when she was found it was actually lower, but as they suddenly tested all her close contacts it had the estimated Reff spike as they sound found infections that were already there.

Now they try and try and smooth out those fluctuations by calculating it on a rolling basis, but with a small number of infections the estimated Reff will still fluctuate more than the actual Reff would be.

Reff's become a more accurate and useful tool when you have a large volume of infections. In Vic the number of infections is still statistically low. It is Day 58 of the Victorian Outbreak and the Reff has not yet stabilised. So picking out a Reff from the range below is meaningless.

I mean what number do you pick for the Reff?

• The 1.4 of today,
• 2.07 from 3 days ago,
• 1.49 from 6 days ago,
• 1.27 from 9 days ago
• 1.05 from 12 days ago

Using the larger infection volumes of NSW, which Vic is not yet at, would suggest that the true Reff will not be the number that you are suggesting.

 

[justinbrett]

Not sure I'd class 200+ daily cases as small, but label it as you like. The last time NSW R eff was more than 1.5 it had 90 cases.

Addressing media today, the state’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton admitted there was “every possibility” Victoria is on a similar outbreak trajectory to Sydney.

It’s admittedly a scenario no state wants to be in. Today, NSW recorded a pandemic-high of 1533 cases, with the death toll for the latest outbreak at 123.

“I think a lot of people are a bit concerned now that we’re on the same trajectory as Sydney and we’re maybe three or four weeks behind Sydney,” he said.

“I mean, we could be. That is a scenario. There’s every possibility that we’re following a slow and steady increase in the way that NSW has.”

Victoria headed for NSW-level outbreak

With Victoria recording 190 new local coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, there are fears the state could be following in the footsteps of its northern neighbours.

www.news.com.au

I'm not perusing this argument any further, the stats are there for you to make your own reality.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well in an effort to stop the boring state v state screeching (again)…..

Did anyone watch 7:30 tonight?

They were covering the spread of the virus and talking about how it will eventually spread into QLD from NSW…

Jayne from VA2 was on it, speaking very confidently that all domestic would be open by Christmas and it would ‘be the biggest Christmas Australia has ever seen’ this year. She did continue to oppose vaccine passports though (for domestic travel).

Basically the theme was the virus spread in Australia is just going to continue (duh…) and the ramifications of that state v state.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well in an effort to stop the boring state v state screeching (again)…..

Did anyone watch 7:30 tonight?

They were covering the spread of the virus and talking about how it will eventually spread into QLD from NSW…

Jayne from VA2 was on it, speaking very confidently that all domestic would be open by Christmas and it would ‘be the biggest Christmas Australia has ever seen’ this year. She did continue to oppose vaccine passports though (for domestic travel).

Basically the theme was the virus spread in Australia is just going to continue (duh…) and the ramifications of that state v state.

Are Qantas confirmed yet as requiring passenger to be fully vaccinated from a future start date? That would be applicable to intra-State flights. Given some States won’t be driving restrictions as much in a post 80% world, business incentives / mandates on customer to limit covid spread seem the way at least for the short-term

 

[jakeseven7]

Agree. It would be corrupt behavior. And to keep the NDA's existence secret, another black mark. Looks like Pfizer's PR job is rubbing salt into the wounds of a gagged minister.

Well they have to do something to distract from all the ‘Pfizer fade’ PR….

But regardless we are stuck with them now so if we have to boost more often then so be it. As long as it helps stop the spread of the virus and get us back to normal then we can sort it out later!