Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Seat0B]

Australia has lived with 1000 flu deaths a year for quite some time.Mostly these are older folk with comorbidities but occasionally a variant that also strikes the young such as in 2009 and 2017.At times we have had some aged care facilities locked down usually for a short time.
Now in the current Sydney outbreak the mortality rate is ~ 0.4%.This means there would be 250000 cases to get 1000 deaths.

The difference to the flu is that there will be more hospitalised and more ICU usage.However as vaccinations rise the mortality rate and ICU rates of admission should drop further.
And as a positive it is likely flu deaths will be lower than average as Covid does cause deaths in the same demographic.

And just to point out to the WA CHO as WA's population is ~2.8 million then WA can expect 27,500 cases per year and 110 deaths.

So if Australia has accepted 1000 flu deaths a year why are we hyperventilating and adversely affecting our economy,our mental health and isolating ourselves from the rest of the world.Why won't we be able to accept 1000 covid deaths per year.

@drron for PM!!

 

[drron]

Too late @Seat0B.I did try in 1984 but didn't quite make it.

 

[justinbrett]

Some political commentators have suggested if the ACT doesn't have a plan to open up in line with VIC/NSW, the federal government could achieve it by federal legislation (being a territory).

It makes sense - ACT's sole reason for existing is to provide the national capital freedom from state control and interference. If it gets to the point where the federal parliament can't function properly, it's probably not unwarranted for the federal government to step in. Otherwise, you may as well be a LHD of NSW.

 

[antycbr]

Some political commentators have suggested if the ACT doesn't have a plan to open up in line with VIC/NSW, the federal government could achieve it by federal legislation (being a territory).

It makes sense - ACT's sole reason for existing is to provide the national capital freedom from state control and interference. If it gets to the point where the federal parliament can't function properly, it's probably not unwarranted for the federal government to step in. Otherwise, you may as well be a LHD of NSW.

They can just disallow whatever legislation or regulations the ACT government passes through the Legislative Assembly or amend the Self Government Act. Same for the NT.

 

[nutwood]

Too late @Seat0B.I did try in 1984 but didn't quite make it.

In 1984 you were competing in a different league. Failed in '84 = gold medal '21.

 

[moa999]

Why won't we be able to accept 1000 covid deaths per year.

The simple answer is because it wouldn't have been 1000 deaths.
Population adjusted the UK has had the equivalent of 51,000 deaths.

(And that's even after they had significant lock downs and early access to vaccines)

 

[drron]

The simple answer is because it wouldn't have been 1000 deaths.
Population adjusted the UK has had the equivalent of 51,000 deaths.

(And that's even after they had significant lock downs and early access to vaccines)

Except we are not dealing with last years deaths but the figures for 2021 when vaccines and better treatment are available.My calculations are based on Australia's figures for 2021.Last year our mortality rate was just over 3%.0.4% this year.Chalk and cheese.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Except we are not dealing with last years deaths but the figures for 2021 when vaccines and better treatment are available.My calculations are based on Australia's figures for 2021.Last year our mortality rate was just over 3%.0.4% this year.Chalk and cheese.

yea victoria deaths last year compared to syd deaths this year (with more cases now) is pure vaccine evidence

 

[N860CR]

yea victoria deaths last year compared to syd deaths this year (with more cases now) is pure vaccine evidence

And the fact that the virus spread in huge volumes in nursing homes. I believe the vast majority of Victorian deaths were nursing home patients who had a poor chance of recovery from a particularly bad strain of influenza.

Of course, pointing out that the mortality rate isn’t overly high (which I would say a good thing) does get certain groups riled up. Very odd.

 

[drron]

yea victoria deaths last year compared to syd deaths this year (with more cases now) is pure vaccine evidence

Apart from the fact that treatments are now much better and effective.

 

[teammongo]

At 80% vaccination in one of the worlds richest countries, there should be zero issue in handling a few covid patients.

Is this based on any facts?

25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..

This is the current ICU situation in NSW.


Half of all the ventilated patients in NSW are COVID. A third of all ICU beds are COVID. These patients aren't scattered evenly throughout NSW, they are clustered in the hotspots. This has huge ramifications, and makes usual service provision impossible in these areas.

With over 100,000 tests per day, we could pay for a lot of nurses.

Where are these specialist nurses? You seem to know where they are hiding.
I had to decline 4 patients on Monday because of lack of staff, too bad if you get sick... But hey, you seem to have all the answers..

Australia has lived with 1000 flu deaths a year for quite some time.Mostly these are older folk with comorbidities but occasionally a variant that also strikes the young such as in 2009 and 2017.At times we have had some aged care facilities locked down usually for a short time.
Now in the current Sydney outbreak the mortality rate is ~ 0.4%.This means there would be 250000 cases to get 1000 deaths.

The difference to the flu is that there will be more hospitalised and more ICU usage.However as vaccinations rise the mortality rate and ICU rates of admission should drop further.
And as a positive it is likely flu deaths will be lower than average as Covid does cause deaths in the same demographic.

And just to point out to the WA CHO as WA's population is ~2.8 million then WA can expect 27,500 cases per year and 110 deaths.

So if Australia has accepted 1000 flu deaths a year why are we hyperventilating and adversely affecting our economy,our mental health and isolating ourselves from the rest of the world.Why won't we be able to accept 1000 covid deaths per year.

1000 seasonal flu deaths are very different to pandemic flu, as no doubt you'd be aware. So comparisons, if any, should be to pandemic flu - such as H1N1. Seasonal flu affects a similar cohort to the Melbourne outbreak, with fatalities and morbidity being mainly in the infirm and co-morbid.
I think when the surge settles, the mortality will be higher that 0.4%, given that there are significantly more younger patients. Their mortality is biphasic, with sudden early deaths and prolonged complicated admissions. We have seen this previously with H1N1.

I think there is little choice but to open up eventually, but things aren't going to fine for quite some time. It's choosing between a rock and a very hard place..

TM

 

[antycbr]

Is this based on any facts?

25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..

This is the current ICU situation in NSW.

View attachment 258495
Half of all the ventilated patients in NSW are COVID. A third of all ICU beds are COVID. These patients aren't scattered evenly throughout NSW, they are clustered in the hotspots. This has huge ramifications, and makes usual service provision impossible in these areas.


Where are these specialist nurses? You seem to know where they are hiding.
I had to decline 4 patients on Monday because of lack of staff, too bad if you get sick... But hey, you seem to have all the answers..



1000 seasonal flu deaths are very different to pandemic flu, as no doubt you'd be aware. So comparisons, if any, should be to pandemic flu - such as H1N1. Seasonal flu affects a similar cohort to the Melbourne outbreak, with fatalities and morbidity being mainly in the infirm and co-morbid.
I think when the surge settles, the mortality will be higher that 0.4%, given that there are significantly more younger patients. Their mortality is biphasic, with sudden early deaths and prolonged complicated admissions. We have seen this previously with H1N1.

I think there is little choice but to open up eventually, but things aren't going to fine for quite some time. It's choosing between a rock and a very hard place..

TM

Thank you for a very informative post.

If we run the risk of being derailed because of vaccine hesitancy, time to apply some sticks hard.

 

[N860CR]

Is this based on any facts?

25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..

Yes. We pay some of the highest taxes in the world and a huge volume of that is directed into public health. You’ve cherry picked numbers to get to a worst case scenario, however that still looks manageable with appropriate measures.

This is the current ICU situation in NSW.

Are we at 80% vaccination yet?

Where are these specialist nurses? You seem to know where they are hiding.
I had to decline 4 patients on Monday because of lack of staff, too bad if you get sick... But hey, you seem to have all the answers..

Plenty of them working in testing clinics. Still plenty of casual pool nurses not getting as many shifts as they like. Didn’t say I have all the answers, but you don’t seem to either. Decline patients? Sure.

You’re just making excuses for what’s probably a poorly run section of a highly funded public health system. The answer is to fix that, not lock the country up and end up spending even more in the long run.

 

[jrfsp]

Darwin at work

‘TikTok guy’ in hospital with Covid

Jon-Bernard Kairouz, the “TikTok guy” who shot to fame for correctly “predicting” NSW’s daily cases numbers for five days in a row, has been hospitalised in a Covid-19 ward.

www.news.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Are we at 80% vaccination yet?

No. But restrictions will ease, and then people will mix more. And with mixing comes more infections. We will enter a phase of lot more Australians becoming infected. Eventually that will mean that more will acquire immunity through infection. But initially there is going to a sizeable number of people to generate hospitalisations from.

Hopitilastions will mainly be amongst the unvaccinated, but there will also be hopitilastions amongst the vaccinated.

Sooner or later everyone will get exposed to Covid. The trick will be in not getting too many people infected at the same time so that the healthcare system copes and is not overwhelmed (ie it needs to be able to deal with all health problems, and not just Covid). The more that get vaccinated the easier it will be.

Remember too that Covid is going to be effectively two diseases with two cohorts.

The vaccinated who will in the main experience infections in their Upper Respiratory Tract (The vaccines do not help with this), and these can still be significant. The virus replicating in the the URT is why the vaccinated can still infect others. And with some when Covid penetrates into their bodies will still suffer severe illness. Though at a much lower rate than with the unvaccinated.

And then with the unvaccinated there will be the same problems of the URT, but who will experience a much higher rate of severe illness when the virus enters their bodies. The greater the % of unvaccinated the more difficult the situation.

 

[jakeseven7]

And then with the unvaccinated there will be the same problems of the URT, but who will experience a much higher rate of severe illness when the virus enters their bodies. The greater the % of unvaccinated the more difficult the situation.

Which is a little ironic when you think about it right because the places with low vaccination rates like QLD (now the lowest in the country) are going to see so many cases and virus spread it isn’t funny - yet they are the ones desperately trying to hang onto the impossible covid zero. It’s bonkers.

 

[jase05]

Albury and Lismore heading to snap 7 day lockdowns from 6pm today

 

[VPS]

I love it when people try and argue science with someone who has won the Nobel prize in Immunology

 

[Spongbob]

The so called "crimes against humanity trial" would be entertaining.

Particularly if "James Kerr" is one of the advocates:

 

[burmans]

I love it when people try and argue science with someone who has won the Nobel prize in Immunology

View attachment 258521

I've noticed him doing this on twitter a bit but I think arguing with stupid people is a bit of a mugs game. You can't have a rational argument with someone who wouldn't (or wont) understand rational arguments.