Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

It could be to tell the crowd at the NRL GF not to touch the ball if it goes in the crowd.

No, sadly as we have the least relevantly qualified CHO in the country, we can’t expect this excellent level of advice and would have to defer to much smarter CHO’s like in Adelaide to provide us with this expert insight.

Meanwhile we are still last.

 

[Quickstatus]

Reports this morning that in NSW hospitalisation and ICU are already improving and that the Burnett modelling is proving to be far too pessimistic.

3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.

Ive heard in speaking to various people that peak ICU numbers vary between 1000-2000.

The information I have been getting for the last week to 2 weeks “behind the scenes” is basically quiet optimism. (Small sample yes)

The current and recent govt narrative has been to push the vaccination rate as much as possible which has pushed forward the 80% 2jab day by a few weeks. The coal face seems a little different.

Don’t forget that a lot of the Covid positives in the community have not been adequately traced to other people. The suggestion is that there are unknown asymptomatic Covid + in the community who have recovered and are therefore immunised. So the true immunised population may be higher than what the vaccination rate suggests. How much more will only be estimated if a small study of non vaccinated persons and never Covid positive are done to detect % with Covid antibodies.

 

[moa999]

Vic into the 800s...
And they've adjusted figures for the last two days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442631123046072322

OLD DATA
26th: 779
27th: 705
28th: 867

REVISED
26th: 788
27th: 845
28th: 867

 

[Must...Fly!]

So the numbers keep going up in Victoria despite long/hard/fast/whatever lockdowns. And has Queensland's luck finally run out? Find out tomorrow on the next episode of "Hey, look over there!"

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

QLD one person found dead inside hotel quarantine system. Concerning.

 

[dairyfloss]

So the numbers keep going up in Victoria despite long/hard/fast/whatever lockdowns. And has Queensland's luck finally run out? Find out tomorrow on the next episode of "Hey, look over there!"

Look over where?! Look over where?!

 

[moa999]

And 863 for NSW.
So Viccs 2nd day in the lead of the race you don't want

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442655573443428354

 

[justinbrett]

And 863 for NSW.
So Viccs 2nd day in the lead of the race you don't want

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442655573443428354

By 4 cases! It's close.

Meanwhile - we got a little problem in Newcastle....

 

[Must...Fly!]

So Viccs 2nd day in the lead of the race you don't want

There's still half the marathon to go and Victoria looks like it's just warming up, I feel

 

[NM]

A second case has been detected in student accommodation in South Brisbane. Given the low testing rate in QLD ( < 6000 y/day) I think it will be a struggle for tracers.

I think the <6000 tests number is actually the Sunday number (5922). Sundays are always lower for testing - not sure why. Yesterday (Monday) was 9328 according to ABC news reporting. Qld health site still showing Sunday, but normally is updated around midday. I guess its a case of small numbers of people having symptoms and very few identified close/casual contact locations and hence low testing rates. Now that there are some identified contact locations the testing numbers will likely rise over the next few days.

 

[Quickstatus]

Sundays are always lower for testing - not sure why

In NSW the quietest day for testing seem to be Saturday
And Sunday and Wednesday seem to be higher
I hypothesise that Sunday and Wednesday are higher because it fits with the testing every 3 days that some employers are requiring. Testing on Sunday mean result will be available by Monday.
Testing on Saturday will mean x2 tests during working week

Whereas Qld is not in as much of a lockdown as NSW.
Are employers in Qld requiring 3 day testing?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Home tests are approved and available from November 1. Hopefully the cost of these is a lot less than a government funded PCR lab test. Give them out in massive numbers to the 3 day test group.

You'll be able to rapid-test yourself for COVID-19 at home from November

Australians will be able to test themselves at home with COVID-19 rapid antigen kits from November.

www.abc.net.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

In NSW the quietest day for testing seem to be Saturday
And Sunday and Wednesday seem to be higher
I hypothesise that Sunday and Wednesday are higher because it fits with the testing every 3 days that some employers are requiring. Testing on Sunday mean result will be available by Monday.
Testing on Saturday will mean x2 tests during working week

Whereas Qld is not in as much of a lockdown as NSW.
Are employers in Qld requiring 3 day testing?

NSW ... except yesterday was heaps lower for testing and today is much higher (like Monday should have been).

 

[Kendall Roy]

It's time for VicPol to stand down on the Murray.

 

[Quickstatus]

NSW ... except yesterday was heaps lower for testing

Thats the thing about statistics - there is variability. If you look at QLD there are Sundays with higher numbers too.
Best to look at the pattern over a longer period of time and rank order highest day of week to lowest, then check the variability by which each particular day does goes outside the norm.

Sundays are always lower for testing - not sure why

In the last 8 weeks in rank order for testing (1= highest testing day, 7 = lowest testing day)
Sunday 7,6,5,7,7,6,6,7(avg 6.375)
Monday: 5,7,1,6,5,7,7,6 (avg 5.5)
Saturday 6,5,7,5,4,4,4,4 (avg 4.875)
Tuesday 1,1,4,2,6,5,5,5 (3.625)
Friday 4,4,6,1,1,3,1,3 (avg 2.875)
Thursday 3,3,2,4,2,2,2,1 (avg 2.375)
Wednesday 2,2,3,3,3,1,3,2 (2.375)

So in the last month statistically Sunday and Monday lowest testing days but Sunday not "always lower for testing"
In NSW, Monday testing has tended to be lower than Sunday (for clarity, numbers for a particular day are reported the next day)

 

[jase05]

@jakeseven7 She is famous!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442658749596913665

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

In NSW the quietest day for testing seem to be Saturday
And Sunday and Wednesday seem to be higher
I hypothesise that Sunday and Wednesday are higher because it fits with the testing every 3 days that some employers are requiring. Testing on Sunday mean result will be available by Monday.
Testing on Saturday will mean x2 tests during working week

Whereas Qld is not in as much of a lockdown as NSW.
Are employers in Qld requiring 3 day testing

NSW ... except yesterday was heaps lower for testing and today is much higher (like Monday should have been).

Thats the thing about statistics - there is variability. If you look at QLD there are Sundays with higher numbers too.
Best to look at the pattern over a longer period of time and rank order highest day of week to lowest, then check the variability by which each particular day does goes outside the norm.

Actually for NSW Monday testing has tended to be lower than Sunday (for clarity, numbers for a particular day are reported the next day)

Using the NSW reporting dates:
Monday 27/9 93k v Sunday 26/9 106k
Monday 20/9 124k v Sunday 19/9 99k
Monday 13/9 137k v Sunday 12/9 105k
Monday 6/9 136k v Sunday 5/9 115k
Monday 30/8 157k v Sunday 29/8 106k
Monday 23/8 311k v Sunday 22/8 206k
Monday 16/8 156k v Sunday 15/8 126k
Monday 9/8 133k v Sunday 8/8 95k
Monday 2/8 117k v Sunday 1/8 87k

You are making the point the Monday reported figures are usually higher. I said yesterday's (Monday's) reported figure is not higher this week - instead a higher figure was reported today (Tuesday).

 

[Princess Fiona]

By 4 cases! It's close.

Meanwhile - we got a little problem in Newcastle....

Hospitalization rates aren’t yet rising though.
Anecdotally we are seeing a lot more patients presenting to EDs but many are seen and discharged.
Hopefully the vaccination rates will keep it that way.

 

[serfty]

OLD DATA
26th: 779
27th: 705
28th: 867

REVISED
26th: 788
27th: 845
28th: 867

Hmmm, one way to keep today's reported number under 1,000 would be to move 160 or so to the days before.

Fortunately I subscribe to "Hanlan's Razor".

 

[Quickstatus]

I said yesterday's (Monday's) reported figure is not higher this week - instead a higher figure was reported today (Tuesday).

Again taking one day out of a data set means very little. Need to look at the whole data set. - see my previous post. Statistics is never about taking one data point out, but rather how it all fitstogether.
The Qld data set for last 8 weeks point to a standard deviation of 1.7 ranks. This means that each day in that data set has a variability of about 1.7 ranks.