Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Quickstatus]

Do they not follow footy too?

Who knows?. But one + person can cause multiple locations of concern to be listed.

 

[Eastwick20]

And not the protest…

Dan did say in yesterday's press conference that he didn't know of any further cases from the protests but did make the point that the type of people who attended were probably very unlikely to go get tested.

 

[MARTINE]

Dan did say in yesterday's press conference that he didn't know of any further cases from the protests but did make the point that the type of people who attended were probably very unlikely to go get tested.

…and happily infect anyone with whom they interact……. net result being we’ve been set back regarding what we (those of us who’ve complied with everything asked) can do.. Dan flagged potentially longer lockdown may be needed.. so functionally thus becomes more lockdowns more likely protests less compliance - wash rinse spin repeat … descending to Dante’s Inferno
It’s tough here in Melb and yesterday if nothing else was a psychological setback

 

[Pushka]

…and happily infect anyone with whom they interact……. net result being we’ve been set back regarding what we (those of us who’ve complied with everything asked) can do.. Dan flagged potentially longer lockdown may be needed.. so functionally thus becomes more lockdowns more likely protests less compliance - wash rinse spin repeat … descending to Dante’s Inferno
It’s tough here in Melb and yesterday if nothing else was a psychological setback

Listening to what SA CHO was saying about the pathway forward, and the restrictions she plans to impose once we hit 80%, then I can fully understand why people may not get tested once we hit that mark. Once swine flu became more general, even without a vaccination then they simply stopped testing for it. Husband gets the usual flu every couple of years despite vaccination. It is completely different to a cold. Body aches and fevers. He's never had a flu test but stays at home for a couple of weeks and in bed. That is what needs to happen once vaccination hits the levels.

Post automatically merged: Oct 1, 2021

Dan did say in yesterday's press conference that he didn't know of any further cases from the protests but did make the point that the type of people who attended were probably very unlikely to go get tested.

Many assumptions there that would draw ire if made about another sub group.

 

[MARTINE]

Listening to what SA CHO was saying about the pathway forward, and the restrictions she plans to impose once we hit 80%, then I can fully understand why people may not get tested once we hit that mark. Once swine flu became more general, even without a vaccination then they simply stopped testing for it. Husband gets the usual flu every couple of years despite vaccination. It is completely different to a cold. Body aches and fevers. He's never had a flu test but stays at home for a couple of weeks and in bed. That is what needs to happen once vaccination hits the levels.

Post automatically merged: Oct 1, 2021

Many assumptions there that would draw ire if made about another sub group.

Net effect - stuck no matter what the reason…

 

[Pushka]

Net effect - stuck no matter what the reason…

Not at all. I don’t isolate when husband gets flu. CHO was talking of isolating everyone who had QR checked in to the same place. In the case of a shop that means shut down the shop as well. Can’t do this going forwards or we are cooked.

 

[jakeseven7]

The ABC were pushing SA CHO about our opening when 80% is reached. Is the number 3000? 4000? when widespread restrictions will be imposed again? Spurrier refused to give a figure. Said it's up to how many people contact tracers can cope with. She talked about widespread closures for not just the positive people, but their contacts, plus anyone whose QR code showed they had been in a proximity at the time. There would be constant police checks on people supposed to be isolation. To be honest it sounded like it will be worse than now as we will have an outbreak. There will be trouble in SA if people start being heavily impacted by unnecessary restrictions and we have an election in March. Until we have a NSW or Vic outbreak she is still aiming for zero it seems.

She literally has zero idea as well.

 

[MARTINE]

Not at all. I don’t isolate when husband gets flu. CHO was talking of isolating everyone who had QR checked in to the same place. In the case of a shop that means shut down the shop as well. Can’t do this going forwards or we are cooked.

I meant in Melb now ‘whatever‘ resulted in this mess - net result is we are stuck with significant restrictions

 

[Pushka]

I meant in Melb now ‘whatever‘ resulted in this mess - net result is we are stuck with significant restrictions

But just maybe the future will be better. My god you deserve it!

 

[andye]

It's really gratifying that the NSW ICU numbers are not rising.
With the 1000+cases of 2-4 weeks ago, the vaccines (even single dose) must be doing the job.
Though we are a better at keeping moderately severe covid out of ICU with latest medication, I'm sure it's the jabs that are doing the bulk of the effect

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It's really gratifying that the NSW ICU numbers are not rising.
With the 1000+cases of 2-4 weeks ago, the vaccines (even single dose) must be doing the job.
Though we are a better at keeping moderately severe covid out of ICU with latest medication, I'm sure it's the jabs that are doing the bulk of the effect

If you compare the 'peak' of positives over a 14-day period, the peak of ICU was approximately less than 7 days later - I was a bit surprised by that outcome. Yes, it does seem vaccinations are having an impact.

 

[Lynda2475]

Yes, it does seem vaccinations are having an impact

Which should be surprising to no one, it is exactly what vaccines do, they give protection so that fewer people have serious health effects if they happen to acquire covid.

 

[Quickstatus]

In the meantime the Gladys Berejiklian has resigned.

 

[Quickstatus]

I was a bit surprised by that outcome

Shouldn’t be surprised because modelling is just that - inherently inaccurate and with wide variability. There are lots of agendas pushing their favourite or desired outcome/narrative. Numerous contradictory conclusions can be sourced from the same modelling.

The best outcome is that one of those modelling conclusions will always be right.

 

[MARTINE]

Shouldn’t be surprised because modelling is just that - inherently inaccurate and with wide variability. There are lots of agendas pushing their favourite or desired outcome. Numerous contradictory conclusions can be sourced from the same modelling.

One of those modelling conclusions will always be right.

Just like a broken clock twice a day

 

[serfty]

Resigned from Parliament too. Hopefully another leader will take the same line for in relation to COVID.

I would hope so too.

 

[Quickstatus]

I would hope so too.

Right in the middle of a rapidly evolving pandemic where thousands have died and thousands more economically damaged.
ICAC could not have picked a better time. They are a law unto themselves, accountable to no one.

 

[burmans]

Shouldn’t be surprised because modelling is just that - inherently inaccurate and with wide variability. There are lots of agendas pushing their favourite or desired outcome/narrative. Numerous contradictory conclusions can be sourced from the same modelling.

The best outcome is that one of those modelling conclusions will always be right.

Yes but. My last role was at a very respected organisation which did a lot of modelling and well remember a conversation with the big boss about this. He readily admitted that there were a number of unknowns which could impact model outcomes. But he made the case that people need to plan and it’s still better to use known information (even if there are unknowns) to understand likely outcomes (as a range) than just guess or throw up your hands and give up. This does require that you do understand modelling is imperfect though, ie do some sensitivity analysis.

But here’s the rub though, in my view this requires a degree of higher thinking and understanding of nuance. In my view many if not most are just incapable of this. They want a concrete figure, don’t or won’t understand this isn’t the case and how or why outcomes may differ. People who do modelling understand it’s not a precise science and there will almost certainly be variance, unfortunately too many who consume the outputs either don’t or will deliberately misinterpret.

 

[MARTINE]

Yes but. My last role was at a very respected organisation which did a lot of modelling and well remember a conversation with the big boss about this. He readily admitted that there were a number of unknowns which could impact model outcomes. But he made the case that people need to plan and it’s still better to use known information (even if there are unknowns) to understand likely outcomes (as a range) than just guess or throw up your hands and give up. This does require that you do understand modelling is imperfect though, ie do some sensitivity analysis.

But here’s the rub though, in my view this requires a degree of higher thinking and understanding of nuance. In my view many if not most are just incapable of this. They want a concrete figure, don’t or won’t understand this isn’t the case and how or why outcomes may differ. People who do modelling understand it’s not a precise science and there will almost certainly be variance, unfortunately too many who consume the outputs either don’t or will deliberately misinterpret.

Very well put..
Nuance and scientific critical thinking skills are the nemesis of political decision making… hence the range of armchair virologists and football codes whose opinions have so much weight in decisions that affect us all.

 

[burmans]

I would hope so too.

I would think there are many other reasons before Covid they should resign. No wonder the Feds don’t want an ICAC, if the same rules applied to them there are a number who would be in serious trouble.