Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

Yes it demonstrates how difficult it is to compare different trajectories allowing for all the variables including vaccination rates. So at present, while the latest Vic lockdown has been less successful in infection terms than NSW, it may be more successful in keeping hospitalisation down owing to higher vaccination rates.

Except for the 1-2 week period between cases and hospitalisation or severe disease.

 

[OATEK]

Except for the 1-2 week period between cases and hospitalisation or severe disease.

Yes, but yet another variable that may play out differently based on vaccination rates. Just trying to say that the hospitalisation rate per ,000 infections may turn out differently between states based on the vaccination rates as cases increase. I expect that Vic will reach the sort of hospitalisation rates in NSW, but could still be less per .000 than NSW. Perhaps not. Time will tell.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes, but yet another variable that may play out differently based on vaccination rates. Just trying to say that the hospitalisation rate per ,000 infections may turn out differently between states based on the vaccination rates as cases increase. I expect that Vic will reach the sort of hospitalisation rates in NSW, but could still be less per .000 than NSW. Perhaps not. Time will tell.

Yes, NSW had a 10-day difference between positive tests peak (11 Sept) and hospital/ICU peak (21 Sept).

Chris Billington is estimating a known positives peak at around 22 Oct. So if the 10-day difference is replicated in Vic - a hospital/ICU peak on 1 Nov.

But I agree its hard to forecast because vaccination levels are different and there is not much information of the % of known positives that are vaccinated (single or fully).

 

[Must...Fly!]

I'm sure the government media types headline writers are already prepared with the "illegal Melbourne Cup Parties cause case explosion" line

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

ACT: 25, 4k -ve test results, 97% first, 69% second (12+)

Looks like ACT on track to relax official lockdown at end 14/10 (and will in all likelihood be 100+% first dose?!?!)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Vic: from this weekend changes to secondary close contact restrictions - no longer under 14 day isolation - currently about 16k will be notified that they no longer need to isolate/quarantine - on the basis that the primary close contact develops no symptoms. Primary close contacts still need to isolate for 14 days.

 

[Quickstatus]

The worldwide number of Delta variants so far is over 1 million
Australia has so far recorded 491 different Delta sequences.

Wrong link
correct link:

Cov-Lineages

cov-lineages.org

 

[Must...Fly!]

Vic: from this weekend changes to secondary close contact restrictions - no longer under 14 day isolation - currently about 16k will be notified that they no longer need to isolate/quarantine - on the basis that the primary close contact develops no symptoms. Primary close contacts still need to isolate for 14 days.

Baby steps in this state. Slow slow slow but at least it's going forward...maintain very concerned at the ability to travel within the country for family reasons and return home without isolating.

Hopefully the opening of NSW goes well.

 

[Quickstatus]

Ubereats from Sokyu

Sokyu does not do delivery

Q7

Annangrove maybe, but Prius for Annandale

Seriously, I do empathise with the people of Canterbury, Bankstown, Fairfield etc
If people with English as the first language have problems understanding Public Health Orders, what hope do people with NESB or ESL?. Often people in these areas have more than two generations under one roof plus all the other health equity issues associated low socioeconomic status - lower GP per population, lower engagement with government, higher comorbidities etc. Add in high police presence and no wonder the LGA with the highest PINS are there. In my area, I hardly see any police.

Don't forget that people with the most stable incomes (those that can lockdown forever) don't lend to live in those areas.
The political class, the media class, and the professional class live elsewhere.

 

[Lynda2475]

Numbers falling nicely is greater Sydney, Hunter now seems to be a real concern

NSW Premier warns residents to brace for a 'difficult time' ahead as the state begins to reopen

Premier Dominic Perrottet warns increase in COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions will be a "natural part" of opening up and says people "will learn to live with the virus".

www.abc.net.au

 

[MARTINE]

Sokyu does not do delivery

Another Sydney reference? Restaurant ?!

 

[oznflfan]

ACT: 25, 4k -ve test results, 97% first, 69% second (12+)

Looks like ACT on track to relax official lockdown at end 14/10 (and will in all likelihood be 100+% first dose?!?!)

Let it rip, life has risk, life is worth risks to live a full life.

 

[Quickstatus]

Let it rip

A term coined (in the Covid era) by the media and those who wish to lockdown forever.
It means that those who use that term usually only see impact of Covid as one dimensional, not the interplay between many non mutually exclusive factors

 

[Quickstatus]

Restaurant

Who will be able to reopen with some restrictions come Monday

 

[flyingfan]

Another Sydney reference? Restaurant ?!

OT but might mean Sokyo restaurant at The Star.

Back on topic, the trends haven't made sense for me... thought NSW would have skyrocketed but it's managed to get to practically a quarter of VIC's today... feels like the sacrifices we Melburnians have made have been for little - not nothing because I do believe it's taken pressure off the hospitals - but it feels like not enough...

 

[N860CR]

Sokyu does not do delivery


Annangrove maybe, but Prius for Annandale

Well that’s my nugget of info for the day! I was sure they’d latch onto the delivery train.

Could well be right. I drive an LX570 but I do have to keep peeling off “save the whale” stickers that get slapped on my bumper

 

[Quickstatus]

they’d latch onto the delivery train.

The Star would never allow the underclass and unclean (probably CovidSpreaders as well) to make an appearance on their premises.
In any case it would take too long for a UberEats rider to get into the Star to pickup an order.
A classy Japanese restaurant would never stoop to deivering Sushi
Annandalers would be probably freak out if their neighbours saw them order via UberEats.

 

[Quickstatus]

feels like not enough

Q: why are the Victorian testing numbers below what NSW was doing at the peak. Not looking for why NSW is better than VIC, but seeking an understanding of the difference without blame

thought NSW would have skyrocketed

The projections of doom were mostly amplified by the media and by certain people given oxygen by the same media (who are quiet now about CovidZero). At the coalface , as I have said before, the mood was strained but not one reflecting of catastrophe

 

[mviy]

Q: why are the Victorian testing numbers below what NSW was doing at the peak. Not looking for why NSW is better than VIC, but seeking an understanding of the difference.

Doesn't NSW require mandatory testing for some workers that are asymptomatic and not close contacts in order to go to work.

Still lower testing suggests that there may be a lot of undetected cases out there.

 

[Quickstatus]

Doesn't NSW require mandatory testing for some workers that are asymptomatic and not close contacts in order to go to work.

For a while there was but it was quickly reversed due to people queuing for hours to get tested. The NSW Govt realised that a lot of employment for people in LGAs of concern are outside of the LGA - such was the lack of understanding of their electorates - Poorer people work in rich areas but live in poor area as they cant afford to live in rich areas.

Still lower testing suggests that there may be a lot of undetected cases out there.

NSW positivity rates (number of positive cases out of the number of tests have hovered about 1-1.2% at the peak
To get to the same positivity rate of NSW, VIC should be doing about 150-160000 tests a day.

My Professor used to say. If the rate of acute appendicitis in a logbook of appendix removal cases is 100%, it means that some acute appendictis were not removed. You need a certain number of negatives. What the optimum number is, I dont know. But then again he used to say that an ECG printout with lines that go up and down means the heart is still beating.