Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Telemachus]

I’m going with the concept that if we aim for perfect we will fail.

People may well (in fact, likely) be fully symptomatic yet never ever test. Likely not get vaxxed. Can’t do anything about those. They won’t bother with this test either. They just don’t care. It’s a bust. They will only get tested if they need urgent medical treatment. This test will not change that scenario.

However the self test will certainly pick up many who have a conscience to aid society and their family.

Agree entirely. As Prof Skerritt emphasised in today’s presser with Hunt, the RAT is a screening test not a diagnostic test. Early days so let’s see how well governments perform now in communicating the role these tests should play in Australia. If it can be clearly articulated, then a sufficiently large proportion of us will use the tests responsibly to make them a worthwhile inclusion in the community’s toolkit.

 

[N860CR]

NSW under 100 in ICU and under 50 on ventilators
Positive test rate under 0.4% with respectable number of tests

Yep. I ran into the doctor today who gave me the “Tasmania can never open ever as they don’t have ICU capacity” line a few weeks ago. Today; “I’ve only had to see one patient today. The interns are doing everything else”.

I’ll admit to being wrong. I said that long lunches and cruisey clinics would be impacted. Clearly not the case.

 

[drron]

So the covidiot who prompted Hobart's lockdown has been charged. He appeared before the Magistrate yesterday also charged with a drug offence and breaching a DVO. Remanded in custody until November 12. The quarantine venue he deserved.

 

[Quickstatus]

“Tasmania can never open ever as they don’t have ICU capacity”

Here is the latest article from the MJA about total ICU capacity in Australia

The ICU capacity - note where the states with the most draconian border controls sit. (Per 100000 population)
NSW 10.8
SA 9.1
ACT 8.6
NT 8.1
QLD 7.9
VIC 7.1
TAS 7.0
WA: 6

Additional physical beds which can be made available in an emergency (when the Covid hits the fan)
Basically overall total surge capacity of 200% (ICU staffing?)
NSW 24.6
VIC 21.9
QLD 20.7
SA 19.7
TAS 18.8
WA 18.1
NT 15.0

Here is the Sept 2021 NSW ICU capacity modelling
Available NSW Surge ICU capacity 1550, and the modelling predicted 947 ICU bed demand in end of Oct early Nov.
Of the 947, 560 predicted to be Covid and 387 non Covid.
(How wrong was the modelling...instead of 560 we got 97)

The quarantine venue he deserved

Often a great place to catch Covid. (if Bathurst gaol is any indicator)

 

[SydneySwan]

Often a great place to catch Covid. (if Bathurst gaol is any indicator)

Hasn't he already got it?

 

[Quickstatus]

Hasn't he already got it?

Exactly my point - not that he caught it in gaol but if Bathurst is any indicator....

 

[mviy]

Just when I thought another day or two of cases about 1500 and the curve may be flattened, and there's another spike back up close to 2000 cases in VIC. 25 deaths is a large number too, though that's a lagging indicator of the high case number's we've been having.

 

[jb747]

After all this time, the states still haven’t really got themselves organised (other than city centric perhaps). The Albury Wodonga border region has been largely free of covid (though not the effects due to the ongoing border issues), but it’s arrived here now. Both sides have good vaccination rates, so it’s basically into the schools. So, you’d think that testing might be paramount. But, well, no. The testing queues exceed the number of hours that the testing places are open (why do they close?). Not bothering to get tested is a more likely outcome than sitting in your car, all day, just to reach the two hours to go position as the place shuts down.

80 cases yesterday, to that would be about the same as Melbourne having 2,500. Anyway, just in time for regional travel to come back this weekend, so standby ……

 

[Quickstatus]

another spike back up close to 2000 cases in VIC

I don’t believe VIC is doing enough testing. Their positivity rate is way in excess of NSW at the peak.

 

[MooTime]

Just when I thought another day or two of cases about 1500 and the curve may be flattened, and there's another spike back up close to 2000 cases in VIC. 25 deaths is a large number too, though that's a lagging indicator of the high case number's we've been having.

Who cares if it's 1500 or 2000 cases.

Hospital occupancy what's relevant, that's sitting ~800, steady!

As 18moonths have shown it's a bumpy curve line....November will see those wanting to head O/S doing so & our Vac rate 12+ hitting 90%.

Merry Christmas!!

 

[Quickstatus]

testing queues exceed the number of hours that the testing places are open (why do they close?)

Seems stupid that Wodonga CovidSwab places all seem to close at 2pm….
Albury CovidSwab appear to close at 5pm except for the Showgrounds which closes at 1pm

 

[Quickstatus]

Hospital occupancy what's relevant, that's sitting ~800, steady!

And reading info from various places, 2Jab+CovidPos mostly = non hospitalised illness except if comorbidities especially obesity. YMMV obviously. But currently in VIC 80-85% in hospital not fully Covid2Jab

 

[jakeseven7]

As someone in covid slammer right now, I couldn't agree more.

Can I ask if you are a part of the City Gym outbreak in the news? If too personal no worries

 

[33kft]

I don’t believe VIC is doing enough testing. Their positivity rate is way in excess of NSW at the peak.

Positivity rate isn't just a factor of how many tests, it is also how you target those tests. NSW at the peak was mandating testing for a bunch of workers when asymptomatic. I just don't think they are comparable variables unless VIC were to do the same.

But more than that, it really doesn't matter. Not only do cases peak for whatever reason on Thursdays and we know it, this number has no bearing on opening up tomorrow, hospital pressure has not risen significantly and to be frank, the only people who realistically care are those opposed to the progress of the roadmap based on vaccine coverage, and they have had plenty of time to protest.

 

[Quickstatus]

target those tests

Unless there is visibility it can be hard to target tests. But where there is visibility they are still not testing enough.

For example: Wodonga only has CovidSwab clinics open till 2pm with long queues. Lots of cases currently for a town like Wodonga.

I agree that CovidSwab will be less important over time as more get CovidJab but I think it is still a bit early and certainly testing has always been lower for some reason in VIC even when CovidJab rates were a lot lower

Currently about 30% of all ICU beds in VIC are occupied by CovidPos patients. Public hospitals % in ICU higher than private hospitals as most of these patients are in public hospitals. I’m unsure about the number of public hospital ICU beds

 

[33kft]

For example: Wodonga only has CovidSwab clinics open till 2pm with long queues. Lots of cases currently for a town like Wodonga.

Yes that seems pretty short sighted

And as an addendum to my last post and to be fair I can understand the hesitance of regional VIC but in reality rather than what ifs, we really need to look at the experience of other jurisdictions who opened up including NSW and the UK (who incidentally now have a lower first jab rate than Aus today and who we are closing in on for second jabs, and yet they opened up 4 months ago, and that's for the whole of Aus and not just VIC who have considerably higher rates now) and spikes in infections just didn't eventuate in either.

It would be nice to start from a lower base but it isn't a requirement. Even Burnet's predictions of a peak of 4,000 cases doesn't seem that scary when you consider we'll be well into 90% vaccine double dose coverage by that point (Jan 2022) and equally their prediction of double today's ICU utilization while very unfortunate is really not a doomsday scenario, and yet they predicted double dose coverage of 80% in several weeks from now, so we already know the base values used to model predictions are off.

 

[Quickstatus]

My point about the testing was a speculation that the large variability of new CovidPos cases each day in VIC might be due to what appears to be relatively low testing numbers. Whether that’s important in the overall picture is the point you are making.

The predictions were way off. NSW health predicted 560 ICU Covid at the predicted peak in late Oct Early Nov, but we only got 97. And the peak was much earlier in middle Sept

 

[Denali]

Went past a testing clinic yesterday and there was only 2 cars there and they might have been staff. Last time I went past there were two queues of cars lining up

 

[antycbr]

Can I ask if you are a part of the City Gym outbreak in the news? If too personal no worries

No, not my gym.

My gym manager was watching the news last night - he had a heart attack when the lead news item was "HUGE COVID OUTBREAK IN DARLINGHURST GYM"... Luckily not his gym as it would kill a small independent gym. City Gym is independent but not small.

 

[jakeseven7]

No, not my gym.

My gym manager was watching the news last night - he had a heart attack when the lead news item was "HUGE COVID OUTBREAK IN DARLINGHURST GYM"... Luckily not his gym as it would kill a small independent gym. City Gym is independent but not small.

No worries! Gyms are going to be very common places of transmission - Canada found the same. Oh well. Lucky our vaccination rates are strong!