Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[andye]

From sept 28…

Basically to recap, Despite the doom and gloom, “let it rip” rhetoric, fear politics, media commentary from so called experts, the general view among my colleagues was and still is quietly optimistic.

There was not a crystal ball, but when everyone out there is pushing one outcome, you know the truth is somewhat different.

Agree. There are always some colleagues with Eeyore tendencies but I was getting the same cautiously optimistic vibe from non-media medics

 

[Lynda2475]

What the actual NSW case/hospitlisation/ICU numbers show is that all the modelling was off by a mile.

Pure scare mongering which didnt remotely represent real world outcomes

 

[serfty]

What NSW numbers show is that all the modelling was off by a mile.

None, there was more a specific narrative espoused in a manner that appeared coordinated.

The narrative is what is being referred to and has been shown to beincorrect.

Spoiler: Click here for one example

‘Step aside’: Lisa rips into Gladys

The Project host Lisa Wilkinson has again ripped into Gladys Berejiklian over her handling of the Covid crisis.

www.news.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

None, there was more a specific narrative espoused in a manner that appeared coordinated.

The narrative is what is being referred to and has been shown to beincorrect.

Spoiler: Click here for one example

‘Step aside’: Lisa rips into Gladys

The Project host Lisa Wilkinson has again ripped into Gladys Berejiklian over her handling of the Covid crisis.

www.news.com.au

It certainly appeared coordinated to try and achieve a political objective end - which was actually ultimately acheived (but not in the way they intended that’s for sure!).

 

[Lynda2475]

The narrative is what is being referred to and has been shown to beincorrect.

I mentioned the same at the time, the rant did not reflect the majority public sentiment at all. She was strangely quiet on subject a few weeks later when Vic's numbers off a smaller population eclipsed NSW by a couple of hundred.

 

[oz_mark]

What the actual NSW case/hospitlisation/ICU numbers show is that all the modelling was off by a mile.

Pure scare mongering which didnt remotely represent real world outcomes

Way out west, there is a premier that thinks NSW case numbers are low because they aren't testing enough....

 

[Lynda2475]

Way out west, there is a premier that thinks NSW case numbers are low because they aren't testing enough....

Which is laughable as NSW has the highest testing rates and WA has done less testing than SA which has 1 million less people. But suits the narrative for remaining a hermit kingdom.

 

[Quickstatus]

a premier that thinks NSW case numbers are low because they aren't testing enough

Funny isn’t it when VIC testing positivity rate is about double than of NSW and on a per cap it’s less testing than NSW.

I hear crickets about the comparison with VIC

 

[andye]

It certainly appeared coordinated to try and achieve a political objective end - which was actually ultimately acheived (but not in the way they intended that’s for sure!).

I-m sure this type of response was the main cause of the (IMO unnecessary) curfew decision. Predictably this was then used as a brickbat for the government creating a "divided Sydney"

 

[Quickstatus]

strangely quiet on subject

Not quiet enough generally. The urge to be in the limelight was manifested in her book (with the usual allegations to spice up interest).

Except the book is now selling at 47% below RRP (Amazon). Was even part of the Dymocks Price Drop promotions. The title of the book is quite apt actually.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thursdays tend to be spike days.

I think the theory is that people mix more on the weekends (both within and outside of the rules) get infected and then become symptomatic mid-week and then go and get tested. And last weekend people would have been mixing a lot more including visits in the home.

Professor Cowie said one of the positive "topline trends" was a dip in the Thursday cases compared to previous weeks.​

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Thursday's cases are often higher than other days, which could be attributable to increased activity and transmission on weekends.​

​

"But for the first time in three weeks, our Thursday figure is just under 2,000, which is good to see," he said​

​

Yes a lag indicator. Plus back when most of the those who have unfortunately died recently were likely to have been infected, LGA's of concern where most of the deaths have been were still only at 35-40% second dose rate.

And on re-opening at the state average of 70% second dose of most the LGA's of concern was still under 70% (By contrast in NSW the LGA's of concern were well above the state average) which was a rapid increase. And it is still steadily increasing.

Vic is still probably a week away from getting all LGA's and all age cohorts being at a healthy second dose rate (12-15 the one exception due their starting later, but who are rapidly rising, will probably be the only age cohort not yet at 70% by then). Plus say 10 days for those latter second doses to become fully effective.

So once again as has been the recent pattern numbers have declined after the "Thursday bump". See Daily Confirmed Cases in Victoria - COVID Live

1,355 cases reported today (for Friday) is the lowest since 3rd Oct and as vaccinations continue, and particular in the critical LGA's and younger age groups will continue to trend lower. 2/3rds of the cases announced today are under 40, and 18% under 10.

With a 4 day long weekend in Melbourne this weekend, with many social events over the 4 days and with also many travelling, who knows what the effect on cases will be? However each day more vaccinations are made, and so the overall trend should now remain downwards.

 

[moa999]

Interesting that NSW, Vic and ACT are all trending downwards despite continual relaxations.

But the one place that isn't is NZ.
Which has hit a new high of 162 today despite heavier restrictions.
(So on a per capita basis worse than NSW).

 

[mviy]

NZ has been a victim of their own success. They have extremely limited natural immunity as there's been so little of the virus circulating in NZ. With their closed borders and relatively less time in lockdown they haven't felt the same urgency to get vaccinated as say in NSW or VIC. They need to get their vaccination levels up to the levels seen in NSW and VIC.

 

[andye]

NZ has been a victim of their own success. They have extremely limited natural immunity as there's been so little of the virus circulating in NZ. With their closed borders and relatively less time in lockdown they haven't felt the same urgency to get vaccinated as say in NSW or VIC. They need to get their vaccination levels up to the levels seen in NSW and VIC.

They still seem ahead of Australia as a whole

 

[antycbr]

NZ has been a victim of their own success. They have extremely limited natural immunity as there's been so little of the virus circulating in NZ. With their closed borders and relatively less time in lockdown they haven't felt the same urgency to get vaccinated as say in NSW or VIC. They need to get their vaccination levels up to the levels seen in NSW and VIC.

And develop a coherent exit plan that doesn’t involve ongoing MIQ.

No international airline will touch NZ and AirNZ will need yet more government assistance.

 

[Lynda2475]

It's not an official 4 day long weekend in Vic, Melbourne Cup is Tuesday and not state wide. Monday is officially a work day, unless you decide to take annual leave.

Looking at wave 2 in NSW, Thursday has only had the highest number of weekly cases in 4 out of 18 weeks, I do not think there is truely any science to the claim of a Thursday bump if there was it woudlnt be unique to Victoria.

They still seem ahead of Australia as a whole

How so? Other than the fact they are Pfizer only?

Their roll-out has been slower and they do not offer their citizen electronic / digital evidence of vaccination for international travel. And whilst we are welcoming HQ free international arrivals from Monday and are not in lockdown they remain largely a hermit kingdom, with lockdowns on the north island.

 

[oz_mark]

It's not an official 4 day long weekend in Vic, Melbourne Cup is Tuesday. Monday is officially a work day,


How so? Other than the fact they are Pfizer only?

How can 'Pfizer only' be something that puts them ahead of Australia?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Interesting that NSW, Vic and ACT are all trending downwards despite continual relaxations.

But the one place that isn't is NZ.
Which has hit a new high of 162 today despite heavier restrictions.
(So on a per capita basis worse than NSW).

I have not followed their vaccination program closely. So a question would be what are the vaccination rates in particular regions and communities and are the vaccination rates high or low in cohorts generating more cases?

 

[Lynda2475]

How can 'Pfizer only' be something that puts them ahead of Australia?

Simple, as JA said when it was decided - safer (lower risk of vaccine related deaths), ability to vaccinate faster as much shorter interval between doses (3 weeks vs 12 week for AZ), higher efficacy and takes away the excuse of Im waiting for another option, plus recognized in more places for travel.

Exclusive use of Pfizer should have enabled NZ to significantly outpace Australia in the roll-out especially given their considerably smaller and less physically remote population.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I admire your commitment to your cause @Lynda2475

There is no way I would have the staying power you do.