Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

I posted this on another thread yesterday and it applies here also.

"Maybe it's time to go back to the actual topic and stop with the sniping. In saying that a couple of people should go back and read what they have said previously as their logic is wandering and contradictory at times."

I am feeling tolerant today however my patience is wearing thin as it's the same offenders today as yesterday. This thread is about "Australian Reports of the Virus Spread" and not about whether Melbourne is or is not having a public holiday on Monday.

Moving forward warnings and/or infractions will be issued without warning.

Thank you

 

[Quickstatus]

Monday is not a Public Holiday, no penalty rates apply on Monday, it is a normal work day

Try telling that to lots of Victorians who do see it as a 4 day long weekend - unofficial or otherwise.
Question is will people use it as an opportunity to get vaxxed or tested?.

It will be an interesting 4 days to see if that loooong weekend does anything to the CovidPos numbers in the following weeks. It seems like the term “superspreader” is falling by the wayside.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With a 4 day long weekend in Melbourne this weekend, with many social events over the 4 days and with also many travelling, who knows what the effect on cases will be? However each day more vaccinations are made, and so the overall trend should now remain downwards.

Try telling that to lots of Victorians who do see it as a 4 day long weekend - unofficial or otherwise.
Question is will people use it as an opportunity to get vaxxed or tested?.

It will be an interesting 4 days to see if that loooong weekend does anything to the CovidPos numbers in the following weeks. It seems like the term “superspreader” is falling by the wayside.

Yes being a 4 day long weekend makes it harder to predict. But overall there should be a lot of mixing.

Many people will have left Melbourne, but in doing so a lot of their mixing will tend to be in small groups or just their family that they have travelled with. Others though may be catching up with friends and family in the country whom they have been cut off for a while. So potential to spread.

Whereas those in Melbourne will tend to be mixing in greater numbers. Plus Cup Day Tuesday tends to be a day for a lot of group BBQs etc. So more mixing. Though weatherwise it will be now 30 and perfect beach weather. So many people will be outdoors.

So there are some pros and cons in the mixing.

As I posted last Thursday, cases have tended to bump about then it is thought due to mixing. So history would tend to suggest that this Thursday-ish will spike again, but this is now going to be from a lower base. The long weekend could well also cause a longer bump too.

However combatting the mixing will be another week's worth of vaccinations, and in particular high second dose vaccination rates in the prime cohorts of concern (LGA's and younger cohorts)

However the current trends are good.

• 1036 cases reported today is the lowest since 29 Sept.
• Hospitalisations and ICU continue to drop.
• Vaccinations in the younger cohorts and LGA's of concern (weekly numbers are out each Monday) are now reaching good levels for second doses.

So overall while I am sure things will continue to bounce around from day to day, things should now just continue to improve till eventually they reach a new lower plateau (which will bounce around as well).

 

[jb747]

This is just a thought thrown in to the wind, but I wonder if Melbourne might not change as much as people fear. I suspect that some of the areas where covid was throwing up the most cases, might have also been places that were being 'self' opened anyway.

 

[drron]

And those predicting a rise in numbers after NSW opened up got it just alittle wrong with todays numbers under 200 at 177.

NSW has recorded 177 new local COVID-19 cases and one death

It's the first time in nearly three months the case numbers have dipped below 200.

www.sbs.com.au

I suspect after we stop being State residents and go back to being Australians things may change though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I suspect that some of the areas where covid was throwing up the most cases, might have also been places that were being 'self' opened anyway.

Or rather were never really closed in various ways......

 

[Quickstatus]

never really closed in various ways

Westfield is one. It never really closed. All and sundry can roam its hallways. 2Jab and ZeroJab mingle. Yes, I know that ZeroJabs can't enter non essential stores within Westfield, but the density of people in westfield and inside non essential stores is about the same as inside Westfield but outside the stores. Density increased now.

Social distancing inside Westfield? Never saw it.

But inspite of that, "letting it rip" has not cause a spike in cases.

Basically something is missing. why is Reff reducing?
2jabs of CovidVax? - but we know that even when 2Jab Covid can be spread
Unknown covidPos?. Testing in NSW has always shown as positivity rate of around 1% at the peak. So a lot of testing was done.
Hidden CovidPos - people who have been CovidPos, never tested then recovered?
And Social distancing has reduced with the lockdown removed.

Whats the explanation for the decline in cases and major departure from the modelling? (edit)

 

[nutwood]

There is something else going on.

Changing seasons? Traditionally, we would not be seeing a lot of people with the old fashioned flu at this time of the year. Hay fever yes, flu no.

 

[Lynda2475]

Whats the explanation for the decline in cases and major departure from the modelling?

The modelling was clearly flawed, but was leveraged by pollies to scare people into accepting over reaching

 

[straitman]

The modelling was clearly flawed, but was leveraged by pollies to scare people into accepting over reaching

That is an opinion which may or may not be accepted by everyone.
Models are like getting health advice. If you ask for five you will probably get five different answers.

 

[Quickstatus]

Don’t need to ask Boris. The data is available as a CSV file
The UK statistics are very interesting.
And basically counters a lot of the fear mongering that went on...

Freedom Day In UK was 19 July.

As you can see, after freedom Day,
England remained below Freedom day 7 day avg daily cases
Northern Ireland had a little rise about 4 weeks after freedom day but then cases reduced
Scotland had a large peak of nearly 4 times their freedom day with rise starting on +week 5 but their cases are now reducing
Wales also had a rise starting about +week 4-5 and thedaily cases are still rising at the end of the data set

Freedom day = no restrictions. Recommendations to get tested if unwell and stay isolated until neg test, hand hygeine, high risk workpklaces 2 lateral flow tests a week
If CovidPos must isolate by law.

Interesting that Scotland and Wales had such high peaks but England did not.

Here is an excel graph of the New cases by UK country
Freedom day is just after the second highest blue peak

 

[N860CR]

That is an opinion which may or may not be accepted by everyone.
Models are like getting health advice. If you ask for five you will probably get five different answers.

Yet our states seemed to blindly follow it…

 

[N860CR]

Personally feel more and more uncomfortable with the enforcement of restrictions for unvaccinated people when we're hitting the mid 90s in terms of a jab rate. Starts to set some, let's say interesting, precedents going forward.

As am I. I am very pro-vax, but that’s my choice. Had no issues restricting things to the vaccinated early in the piece (ie 70%) as the aim was to “protect the health system”. We’re fast realizing that (as I said and was shot down for many times) there is absolutely no risk of our health system being overwhelmed. Restricting people until a largely insane target of 95% is simply a punishment tool for those who don’t play the governments game. That’s simply not on in a supposedly free country.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yet our states seemed to blindly follow it…

Certainly WA and QLD pick the worst case model, multiply it by 10, strong arm their ‘amendable’ CHO’s into shrieking about dead children lining school hallways from Covid and then forget to vaccinate their population….

 

[Quickstatus]

the worst case model,

Models are like getting health advice. If you ask for five you will probably get five different answers

Doherty has released the source code for their modelling but not the epidemiological data as this is confidential. So much for transparency. The source code is in a GitHub which is not my expertise

With the same data and the same algorithms the modelling would be the same. But without the source data, it cannot be replicated by anyone

 

[Pushka]

Today SA Health has released the modelling with vaccination and open borders. With fully open borders we expect a death rate of - 4 deaths over - 300 days.

Edit: using current restrictions eg masks etc.

 

[jakeseven7]

Today SA Health has released the modelling with vaccination and open borders. With fully open borders we expect a death rate of - 4 deaths over - 300 days.

Turn the hair dryers on max power

 

[Spongbob]

The modelling was clearly flawed, but was leveraged by pollies to scare people into accepting over reaching

All models have flaws, but some are more useful than others.

 

[Bundy Bear]

NSW 135
Vic 1471 still high

 

[straitman]

Yet our states seemed to blindly follow it…

The cynic in me says they shop the advice and use what suits them at the time.