Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

The subsequent modelling indicated not so.

You may wish to a read through the Burnett Modelling



That is correct, including nationally.

But by 19 September after the modelling was redone it was built into the plan.



So you are now changing the topic from opening early to elimination?

The roadmap is about living with Covid permanently and so elimination had to be by definition a temporary phase. You cannot have living with Covid and elimination (which is living without Covid).

Yes the Vic Gov hoped to get to the 70/80 levels with zero cases but that was not to be. Why would that not be the aspiration if it could have happened?

However the virus had built enough community transmission to mean that only a complete lockdown could have suppressed it, but by that time the vaccination rollout was well underway and so the path became as per the 19 Sept Roadmap with its defined public health measures to suppress transmission till enough vaccinations had occurred (ie 70/80 settings).

I see that as reacting to virus transmission that was occurring and not political pressure.



The protests were about not vaccinating and about opening up immediately. Neither happened.

It is early by the then definition of Victoria - in that they would not open with hundreds (or indeed thousands of cases). There was much noise against NSW for saying it would open under those conditions. Dan Andrews slammed NSW and Sydney in nearly every press conference he did (feel free to go through the archives, it was widely noted and commented on in this thread).

People choose to remember what they want. Luckily this thread has over 30,000 posts to document what actually happened.

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up events that happened in September, when my argument was the events in August was one of the drivers that encouraged them down that path.

 

[burmans]

Some would suggest it was reality(that they weren’t going to eliminate Delta) that drove them down that path more than any other one event.

 

[Lynda2475]

6/11 1 new local positive, 7.8k tests, 7 hospital, 0 ICU
7/11 0 new local positives, 5.8k tests, 9 hospital, 0 ICU
8/11 0 new local positives, 5.8k tests, 10 hospital, 0 ICU
9/11 0 new local positives, 8.1k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
10/11 3 new local positives, 10.8k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
11/11 2 new local positives, 8.9k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
12/11 2 new local positives, 9.4k tests, ? hospital, ? ICU

Pitiful test rates in Qld, its almost like they dont want to know what is circulating

 

[Hillbilly64]

Pitiful test rates in Qld, its almost like they dont want to know what is circulating

We operate on a "what we don't know won't hurt us" model up here

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Victoria

8/11 1126 new positives, 44k tests, 556 hospital, 91 ICU
9/11 1069 new positives, 47k tests, 579 hospital, 90 ICU
10/11 1003 new positives, 71k tests, 471 hospital, 84 ICU
11/11 1313 new positives, 67k tests, 457 hospital, 79 ICU
12/11 1115 new positives, 67k tests, 426 hospital, 82 ICU
13/11 1221 new positives, 60k tests, 405 hospital, 77 ICU
14/11 905 new positives, 64k tests, 394 hospital, 75 ICU

NSW

8/11 187 new positives, 52k tests, 264 hospital, 48 ICU
9/11 222 new positives, 66k tests, 254 hospital, 42 ICU
10/11 216 new positives, 95k tests, 235 hospital, 41 ICU
11/11 261 new positives, 77k tests, 228 hospital, 40 ICU
12/11 286 new positives, 77k tests, 236 hospital, 34 ICU
13/11 250 new positives, 58k tests, 228 hospital, 32 ICU
14/11 195 new positives, 57k tests, 224 hospital, 32 ICU

ACT

8/11 13 new positives, 1.4k tests, 1 hospital, 1 ICU
9/11 18 new positives, 1.5k tests, 1 hospital, 1 ICU
10/11 9 new positives, 1.9k tests, 0 hospital, 0 ICU
11/11 9 new positives, ?k tests (maintenance on reporting system), 0 hospital, 0 ICU
12/11 15 new positives, 2.6k tests, 0 hospital, 0 ICU
13/11 11 new positives, 1.9k tests, 0 hospital, 0 ICU
14/11 15 new positives, 1.9k tests, 0 hospital, 0 ICU

Qld

8/11 0 new local positives, 5.8k tests, 10 hospital, 0 ICU
9/11 0 new local positives, 8.1k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
10/11 3 new local positives, 10.8k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
11/11 2 new local positives, 8.9k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
12/11 2 new local positives, 9.4k tests, 14 hospital, 0 ICU
13/11 0 new local positives, 9.2k tests, 15 hospital, 0 ICU
14/11 0 new local positives, 6.5k tests, ? hospital, ? ICU

 

[Lynda2475]

So now that international borders are open, NSW health is going to change its daily reporting via twitter to just be total cases i.e no breakdown of international vs local vs interstate. This is because majority of overseas arrivals wont be in HQ.

This data will still be in the weekly surveillance reports (usually published with a 2 week delay) to allow time to identify the internationals.

We should see the change later this week.

 

[Lynda2475]

The unvaccinated accounting for vas majority of serious health outcomes, as to be expected:



The NSW weekly Health surveillance reports are now providing more details re age cohorts, vaccination status and severe outcomes.

We see that the majority of the breakthrough cases are in 70+ age bracket.

 

[Lynda2475]

Breakdowns of total Hospitalisations and ICU:

 

[Lynda2475]

Breakdown of deaths, Delta has seen minor increases in Case Fatality Rate even with vaccinations. However concerns remain the 70+ cohort. You cant afford to be anti-vaxer if you are older, your outcomes are much worse.

 

[andye]

Good to see VIC under 400 in hospital and under 50 ventilated

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good to see VIC under 400 in hospital and under 50 ventilated

Yes everything is now trending in the right direction in Victoria, and like most things throughout this pandemic in the typical wave pattern. It is on the downslope now well past the peak.

Most numbers are now at the lowest they have been since late September.

 

[Must...Fly!]

14/11 195 new positives, 57k tests, 224 hospital, 32 ICU

This might be the first day in a long time NZ (207) has exceeded NSW?

 

[Princess Fiona]

This might be the first day in a long time NZ (207) has exceeded NSW?

Also happened November 8th

 

[Lynda2475]

Also happened November 8th

And considering the populaton of NSW is 3million more than the whole of NZ when you adjust per capita, NZ has had more cases per capita for quite some time now.

 

[jakeseven7]

Case in Tassie if anyone cares, on a flight from Brisbane or something, sure the Mercury will do a special fold out memorabilia edition or something.

 

[N860CR]

Case in Tassie if anyone cares, on a flight from Brisbane or something, sure the Mercury will do a special fold out memorabilia edition or something.

Just saw this. Really; big whoop. The bigger issue though… supposedly Queensland is covid-free. As they proudly announce with their Central African Republic testing levels. So what are the odds that somebody on a Brisbane to Hobart flight, a flight between two “covid-zero” states, happens to randomly be the one lone case in Queensland? Either the biggest fluke in world history, or covid is running equally rampant in Queensland as it is in virtually every other city in the world.

The fact that we even jest about the Mercury having a sh*tfit is a true indication of just how out of touch with reality many Australian jurisdictions are. If it wasn’t such a disgrace, it would be laughable.

Post automatically merged: Nov 15, 2021

And considering the populaton of NSW is 3million more than the whole of NZ when you adjust per capita, NZ has had more cases per capita for quite some time now.

So ThE hOSpiTAls mUSt bE oVeRRUn

 

[drron]

Case in Tassie if anyone cares, on a flight from Brisbane or something, sure the Mercury will do a special fold out memorabilia edition or something.

So he was a Victorian who was flying to MEL via HBA.Sounds a bit like an AFFer by not travelling direct.

New exposure sites identified after Tassie Covid case

This coronavirus article is unlocked and free to read in the interest of community health and safety. Click here for our latest great value offer and instantly access trusted news from the Mercury.

www.news.com.au

The Examiner has a tame headline but behind a pay wall.

Positive COVID case isolating in Tasmania

A traveller has been taken into hotel quarantine after his COVID test came back positive.

www.examiner.com.au

But the Muckery let me read the whole article.Fairly restrained.

No Cookies | The Mercury

No Cookies

www.themercury.com.au

 

[N860CR]

So he was a Victorian who was flying to MEL via HBA.Sounds a bit like an AFFer by not travelling direct.

New exposure sites identified after Tassie Covid case

This coronavirus article is unlocked and free to read in the interest of community health and safety. Click here for our latest great value offer and instantly access trusted news from the Mercury.

www.news.com.au

The Examiner has a tame headline but behind a pay wall.

Positive COVID case isolating in Tasmania

A traveller has been taken into hotel quarantine after his COVID test came back positive.

www.examiner.com.au

But the Muckery let me read the whole article.Fairly restrained.

No Cookies | The Mercury

No Cookies

www.themercury.com.au

Don’t know what these rags are going to do when the covid gravytrain is behind us. They might actually have to start reporting. Or just switch to “Kmart mums amazing shelf hack”

 

[Pushka]

Don’t know what these rags are going to do when the covid gravytrain is behind us. They might actually have to start reporting. Or just switch to “Kmart mums amazing shelf hack”

We've often said the same over recent history but weirdly some natural disaster seems to happen and so they carry on. When Trump was President then his stories would fill any vaccum that may occur. So, maybe you are right this time. Strangely this void seems to always be filled over Christmas as well given the dearth of news stories at this time.

 

[RooFlyer]

Case in Tassie if anyone cares, on a flight from Brisbane or something, sure the Mercury will do a special fold out memorabilia edition or something.

I cared a bit as I was in Hobart airport yesterday afternoon, about to fly to Perth. Discovered the news on descent into Perth after the Wi-Fi reconnected.

I missed the exposure period at Hobart airport by a single minute! St Marko of the West let me in, no worries!