Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jb747]

Although the Government appears to be attempting to get powers that would enable that.

Those powers only work if the population allow them to. It most certainly would not be the Australia we know, but having seen a Victorian police officer aiming his assault rifle at an unarmed protester, I think we were a lot further along the road than many realise.

 

[Lynda2475]

hose powers only work if the population allow them to

You get who you vote for.

 

[justinbrett]

It just doesn’t stop in this thread does it?

Pop in to get a quick update on what’s happening around AU and ding ding ding, it’s the next round of VIC vs NSW sniping.

Just to be clear, I wasn't making any comparisons between VIC & NSW. I was saying IMO the opening of Victoria was not because of what happened in NSW, but due to its own decisions and local political pressure.

Which protests were those are you referring to in particular?

There have been protests in Melbourne for many months, in growing frequency, well before the roadmap was released. The one in August was particularly noteworthy.

 

[Solid]

You get who you vote for.

Yes and no. I doubt a majority of whom voted for the current Vic govt. thought they would bring in such laws.

 

[33kft]

You get who you vote for.

Or not, if they don't survive the term

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There have been protests in Melbourne for many months, in growing frequency, well before the roadmap was released. The one in August was particularly noteworthy.

Noteworthy it may have been, but it was after the reopening targets had already been set. So it did not alter the targets, as the targets remained the same.

The reopening targets for reopening of 70% and 80% 16+ double vaxxed were announced on 2 July. And when those nationally agreed targets were reached in Victoria the state was re-opened appropriate to the target.
.

The Vic Roadmap on 19 Sept was just putting more flesh on the bones at the Victorian local level of the original National Roadmap. It is just part of the National Roadmap. It is not a different roadmap, it is just the more detailed version for Victoria. The National Roadmap having been drawn up with input from all the jurisdictions.

 

[drron]

Time to move on. Most of us are trying to re aquaint ourselves as Australians not just one state's citizens.

 

[justinbrett]

Noteworthy it may have been, but it was after the reopening targets had already been set. So it did not alter the targets, as the targets remained the same.

The reopening targets for reopening of 70% and 80% 16+ double vaxxed were announced on 2 July. And when those nationally agreed targets were reached in Victoria the state was re-opened appropriate to the target.
.

The Vic Roadmap on 19 Sept was just putting more flesh on the bones at the Victorian local level of the original National Roadmap. It is just part of the National Roadmap. It is not a different roadmap, it is just the more detailed version for Victoria. The National Roadmap having been drawn up with input from all the jurisdictions.

Victoria ‘unlikely’ to eliminate Delta as PM backs NSW on reopening

A leading epidemiologist says lockdowns, intensive contact tracing and vaccination would be required to merely flatten the curve of the current outbreaks because the ability of the virus to spread had drastically changed.

www.smh.com.au

This was from the day of those protests. Of note is the quote from Dan Andrews:

Amid signs that the national agreement over how to open up the country is fraying badly – and along Liberal-Labor lines – Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews insisted on Saturday “the plan is the plan” and that the state was still committed to the 70 and 80 per cent vaccination targets in the Doherty Institute modelling “with very low cases numbers”.

“If you don’t actively suppress this virus then when you do open up, we will have scenes the likes of which none of us have ever experienced in our hospitals,” Mr Andrews said on Saturday.

“That is why yesterday [at national cabinet], far from a sense of easing or a sense of moving away from the plan, there was an agreement, and quite some discussion about the need to update the Doherty modelling because the Doherty modelling is not predicated on 10, 12, 15, 20,000 active cases in any state or across our nation, it is in fact predicated on very small numbers of cases.”

Victoria’s stance echoed that of Western Australian Premier’s Mark McGowan and has the backing of the Queensland state government.

 

[Pushka]

You get who you vote for.

Not really. I wouldn't have voted for a Govt that is impeding small businesses so much, given its platform is about supporting small business. Nor locked people out of returning home.

 

[Lynda2475]

WA and Qld have had an election since Covid, they did indeed knowingly vote in governments with Hermit state policies they campaigned heavily on it and they were given unprecedented majorities.

Not really. I wouldn't have voted for a Govt that is impeding small businesses so much, given its platform is about supporting small business. Nor locked people out of returning home.

And yet if i understand correctly in SA those decisions were made by CHO and Police Chief neither of which are elected and both of whom would have been in place if the Premier was different?

7/8 States and territories have over used emergency powers, one state never even needed to declare one. Health orders can be issued without a SOW, NSW proves this.

 

[Lynda2475]

Case numbers remaining stable below 300, ICU cases declining

 

[Lynda2475]

From ABC blog:

The Australian National University has done an interesting study on people's trust around personal data during the pandemic. It showed people's trust in major institutions to maintain privacy fell between May 2020 and August 2021, but interestingly, it was still higher than what it was pre-pandemic.

The study, which included more than 3,000 adults, also examined which Australians were most likely to use check-in apps.

Women were more likely to check in compared to men, with 67.4 per cent of women saying they always do compared to 56.3 per cent of men. Vaccinated Australians were substantially more likely to use check-in apps.

“In another really fascinating finding, the majority of Australians who expressed low trust in how institutions use their data, 54.2 per cent said they always use check-in apps,” said study co-author Nicholas Biddle, from the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods.

“While this is quite a fair bit lower than those who have high trust in institutions and always use check-in apps, 68.5 per cent, it shows that despite their concerns, many Australians are doing the right thing and what they have been asked to do by governments to help keep each other and their communities safe during the pandemic.”

 

[Pushka]

WA and Qld have had an election since Covid, they did indeed knowingly vote in governments with Hermit state policies they campaigned heavily on it and they were given unprecedented majorities.



And yet if i understand correctly in SA those decisions were made by CHO and Police Chief neither of which are elected and both of whom would have been in place if the Premier was different?

7/8 States and territories have over used emergency powers, one state never even needed to declare one. Health orders can be issued without a SOW, NSW proves this.

I don't know. It's up to how this is presented in Parliament. Last time Parliament rejected a significant number of 'suggestions'. There is no other state where the Premier has left everything completely up to the PC and CHO to run the show. That's his issue. I think the Opposition Leader, whom Ive actually come to quite like, seems much more of a leader right now.

I trust the data collection. I don't trust how the CHO is prepared to deal with the information she receives from it. QR check-ins may become problematic moving forward and they know it.

 

[jase05]

I think the Opposition Leader, whom Ive actually come to quite like, seems much more of a leader right now.

He appears a person of dubious morals and is supported by some I consider reprehensible in his party.
SA needs to be very careful at the next election IMO

 

[Pushka]

He appears a person of dubious morals and is supported by some I consider reprehensible in his party.
SA needs to be very careful at the next election IMO

That’s a bit awkward!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Victoria ‘unlikely’ to eliminate Delta as PM backs NSW on reopening

A leading epidemiologist says lockdowns, intensive contact tracing and vaccination would be required to merely flatten the curve of the current outbreaks because the ability of the virus to spread had drastically changed.

www.smh.com.au

This was from the day of those protests. Of note is the quote from Dan Andrews:

Amid signs that the national agreement over how to open up the country is fraying badly – and along Liberal-Labor lines – Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews insisted on Saturday “the plan is the plan” and that the state was still committed to the 70 and 80 per cent vaccination targets in the Doherty Institute modelling “with very low cases numbers”.

“If you don’t actively suppress this virus then when you do open up, we will have scenes the likes of which none of us have ever experienced in our hospitals,” Mr Andrews said on Saturday.

“That is why yesterday [at national cabinet], far from a sense of easing or a sense of moving away from the plan, there was an agreement, and quite some discussion about the need to update the Doherty modelling because the Doherty modelling is not predicated on 10, 12, 15, 20,000 active cases in any state or across our nation, it is in fact predicated on very small numbers of cases.”

Victoria’s stance echoed that of Western Australian Premier’s Mark McGowan and has the backing of the Queensland state government.

Well all of that is not about altering opening based on the protests, but on reviewing the opening up based on the number of seeding cases. In addition at each review other variables were also updated to reflect the increased knowledge at the time.



So as per your post, yes it was requested that the original Doherty modelling be redone to verify what would happen at the vaccination hurdles of 70% and 80% with higher seeding levels than was used (only 30) in the original report.

This was done by Doherty (reported on 17 Sep) in the immediate leadup up to the Vic Roadmap (launched 19 Sep) , plus the Vic Gov also had its own modeling done by the Burnett Institute to cross-check and to provide greater granularity for the required public health and social measures . See https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-09/210919 - Burnet Institute - Vic Roadmap.pdf

Burnett:



Both the Doherty and Burnett models validated the reopening at the 70 and 80 % vaccination hurdles with appropriate public health and social measures and at least partially effective TTIQ was appropriate.

The Doherty Report has been updated multiple times including more recently in Nov to reflect a variety of new data.

So Victoria opened up not early, but as planned at the 70% and 80% hurdles.
Currently all metrics of the Burnett modelling are less than was estimated to be the likely case in the modelling and are very much at the lower bound of the ranges.

 

[justinbrett]

So Victoria opened up not early, but as planned at the 70% and 80% hurdles.
Currently all metrics of the Burnett modelling are less than was estimated to be the likely case in the modelling and are very much at the lower bound of the ranges.

Big difference being they opened with thousands of daily cases. At the time of the August protest that was not the plan.

You cannot deny the immense political pressure placed on the Victorian government to change its strategy from elimination.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Big difference being they opened with thousands of daily cases.

The subsequent modelling indicated not so.

You may wish to a read through the Burnett Modelling

At the time of the August protest that was not the plan.

That is correct, including nationally.

But by 19 September after the modelling was redone it was built into the plan.

You cannot deny the immense political pressure placed on the Victorian government to change its strategy from elimination.

So you are now changing the topic from opening early to elimination?

The roadmap is about living with Covid permanently and so elimination had to be by definition a temporary phase. You cannot have living with Covid and elimination (which is living without Covid).

Yes the Vic Gov hoped to get to the 70/80 levels with zero cases but that was not to be. Why would that not be the aspiration if it could have happened?

However the virus had built enough community transmission to mean that only a complete lockdown could have suppressed it, but by that time the vaccination rollout was well underway and so the path became as per the 19 Sept Roadmap with its defined public health measures to suppress transmission till enough vaccinations had occurred (ie 70/80 settings).

I see that as reacting to virus transmission that was occurring and not political pressure.



The protests were about not vaccinating and about opening up immediately. Neither happened.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Victoria

6/11 1268 new positives, 65k tests, 651 hospital, 106 ICU
7/11 1173 new positives, 56k tests, 568 hospital, 96 ICU
8/11 1126 new positives, 44k tests, 556 hospital, 91 ICU
9/11 1069 new positives, 47k tests, 579 hospital, 90 ICU
10/11 1003 new positives, 71k tests, 471 hospital, 84 ICU
11/11 1313 new positives, 67k tests, 457 hospital, 79 ICU
12/11 1115 new positives, 67k tests, 426 hospital, 82 ICU

NSW

6/11 270 new positives, 72k tests, 270 hospital, 55 ICU
7/11 244 new positives, 70k tests, 269 hospital, 52 ICU
8/11 187 new positives, 52k tests, 264 hospital, 48 ICU
9/11 222 new positives, 66k tests, 254 hospital, 42 ICU
10/11 216 new positives, 95k tests, 235 hospital, 41 ICU
11/11 261 new positives, 77k tests, 228 hospital, 40 ICU
12/11 286 new positives, 77k tests, 236 hospital, 34 ICU

ACT

6/11 18 new positives, 1.1k tests, 2 hospital, 1 ICU
7/11 13 new positives, 1.1k tests, 1 hospital, 1 ICU
8/11 13 new positives, 1.4k tests, 1 hospital, 1 ICU
9/11 18 new positives, 1.5k tests, 1 hospital, 1 ICU
10/11 9 new positives, 1.9k tests, 0 hospital, 0 ICU
11/11 9 new positives, ?k tests (maintenance on reporting system), 0 hospital, 0 ICU
12/11 15 new positives, 2.6k tests, 0 hospital, 0 ICU

Qld

6/11 1 new local positive, 7.8k tests, 7 hospital, 0 ICU
7/11 0 new local positives, 5.8k tests, 9 hospital, 0 ICU
8/11 0 new local positives, 5.8k tests, 10 hospital, 0 ICU
9/11 0 new local positives, 8.1k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
10/11 3 new local positives, 10.8k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
11/11 2 new local positives, 8.9k tests, 12 hospital, 0 ICU
12/11 2 new local positives, 9.4k tests, ? hospital, ? ICU

 

[Must...Fly!]

You can lead a horse to water.

Or a person to a needle.