Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Lets hope so, in an interview today Andrews wouldnt confirm that contracts with the private security firms had been terminated. Vic still not using ADF to enforce procedures as has been sucessful in NSW and elsewhere. I really dont understand why Vic wouldnt accept ADF help offered. Miltitary personal are used to following orders and procedures, and as are paid their usual salary have no incetive to cut corners unlike the private security firms who were aiming to maximise profits by having phantom staff and untrained staff on duty.

My negative criticisms of how hotel quarantine was run in Victoria I have posted many times. So I will spare the AFFers by my not repeating them yet again

 

[Himeno]

Radio story I heard was that two members of the Canberra household had been in Melbourne and returned on 2 Jul. Both tested positive along with a third member of the household.

It's what they did on Sunday and Monday, before getting tested on Tuesday, that has me somewhat worried.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Flying mermaid seemed a reasonable explanation, but if it’s what get me outta here says then I’m more confused, unless the two in a hotspot moved in/back to be part of the third person’s hoUse hold in Victoria (or vice versa).

anyway, small matter.....

The aim of journalist these days seem to be to create confusion rather than clarity. . Whatever the case we definitely have two from a Melbourne who arrived on Thursday and a third one who is a household contact whatever that means

This is the official release which doesn’t add anything

ACT COVID-19 update - 8 July 2020

ACT COVID-19 update - 8 July 2020

www.covid19.act.gov.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Radio story I heard was that two members of the Canberra household had been in Melbourne and returned on 2 Jul. Both tested positive along with a third member of the household.

And we know how it is spreading so quickly, because it is spreading without symptoms in so, so many cases. What if it goes 9 cycles before it hits a vulnerable population that then shows enough symptoms to get tested. Before that, how many people get infected....

 

[Flying mermaid]

It's what they did on Sunday and Monday, before getting tested on Tuesday, that has me somewhat worried.

They visited Fyshwick markets on Saturday and Belconnen Mall on Monday . Don’t appear to have gone to pubs or restaurants

 

[Pushka]

anyone could justify the salaries of some of the player so will bow out of this line of conversation from here.

On this I agree. On the other points, the idea of hubs was considered but the number of matches meant that players would be separated for many months from families and I don't think the Players Association would even get close to agreement. I understand they are tested twice a week as they need to be Covid free before they can train for tackling etc. At home they can only have normal family members in the home, no one else. They are excluded from attending other places except medical etc. I suspect they are cleaner than the rest of us.

I'm not a great fan of AFL yet I was pleased to see it return because that showed that we could eventually get back to some kind of normality.

Given what is happening in ACT I think all state authorities are again holding their breath. Our bars and nightclubs are now shut again - great thing as far as I'm concerned as they behaved badly last week.

Also I heard today that we are starting to do antibody testing on a level similar to Covid testing in SA. Baby Grandson was tested Monday and results back early Tuesday - rhino/adeno virus.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Our bars and nightclubs are now shut again - great thing as far as I'm concerned as they behaved badly last week.

I think that in many of the wealthier countries that nighclubs, bars and family gatherings/events are amongst the biggest sources of spread.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And we know how it is spreading so quickly, because it is spreading without symptoms in so, so many cases. What if it goes 9 cycles before it hits a vulnerable population that then shows enough symptoms to get tested. Before that, how many people get infected....

Well on maths, there are said to be an infection rate of 2.5 and a person has the typical 10 close contacts. Say those 3 infected close contacts plus the original then infect another 3 each in the next cycle then that’s 16 in total. (4x3 plus 4)

At this point you would have hoped 1 would be with symptoms and tested.

If not the third cycle is 16x3=48. (Another 48 more and 64 in total) etc

It would be super extraordinary for that lack of disregard to symptoms and not getting tested to get to 9 cycles......and even more so with this second wave we are all in and about 300000 tests from the lockdown in Melbourne.

 

[Pushka]

I think that in many of the wealthier countries that nighclubs, bars and family gatherings/events are amongst the biggest sources of spread.

Yes indeed. Which surprised me when they were allowed to open last week but the Hotels Association obviously have a great influence here in SA. But behaviour was so bad that the door got slammed shut. Yeah!

 

[jakeseven7]

I think that in many of the wealthier countries that nighclubs, bars and family gatherings/events are amongst the biggest sources of spread.

Well lets hope the massive 1000 person party in Byron on the weekend doesn't prove that true....

Gladys seems to think that NSW outbreak is only a matter of time.... so has anyone actually done the math to how many ICU beds we have now? It seems that it is only a matter of time now and we just hope for a vaccine

"The probability of contagion in NSW given what's happened in Victoria is extremely high," Ms Berejiklian said.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes indeed. Which surprised me when they were allowed to open last week but the Hotels Association obviously have a great influence here in SA. But behaviour was so bad that the door got slammed shut. Yeah!

We have had reports of bad behaviour here in Brisbane as well - so its not just Adelaide .

All it takes is one.... and its off and running, especially among st the younger generation who more than likely will not even exhibit any symptoms at all, so it is passed around before they catch it.... And they are the ones out and about the most.

 

[Flying mermaid]

It was 3 people from MEL apparently, anything hot off the press should probably not been taken literally . Anyhoo, as a result, CBR will not ease restrictions as from Friday after all.

Flying mermaid seemed a reasonable explanation, but if it’s what get me outta here says then I’m more confused, unless the two in a hotspot moved in/back to be part of the third person’s hoUse hold in Victoria (or vice versa).

anyway, small matter.....

Just listened to the press conference with The Chief Minister, Health Minister, Chief Health Officerand it was definitely 2 from a Melbourne hotspot plus a household contact. So I am thinking two were visiting a Melbourne hotspot, came back home and infected someone else.

A final decision will be made on easing the restrictions tomorrow, but it sounded like 99.9 % certain.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well lets hope the massive 1000 person party in Byron on the weekend doesn't prove that true....

While true, it is indoor events that are the most dangerous ones.

From memory the early wedding spreading event early on that may have been In Byron was outdoors though.

 

[Pushka]

Gladys seems to think that NSW outbreak is only a matter of time.... so has anyone actually done the math to how many ICU beds we have now? It seems that it is only a matter of time now and we just hope for a vaccine

I very much got that Vibe from SA Health people today too. They are focussing on risk industries, in particular meat processing plants.

 

[Lynda2475]

Well lets hope the massive 1000 person party in Byron on the weekend doesn't prove that true....

Especially given a lot of Melbournians were in Byron because it was as far north as they could get.

o has anyone actually done the math to how many ICU beds we have now

SMH reports Covid-19 ICU / Total ICU beds each day - currently it is 1/ 1020 in NSW and 9/ 476 in Vic. So in NSW there is 1 ICU bed per 7,396 people, in Vic there is 1 ICU bed per 13,340 people. NSW has the best ICU capacity in the country.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SMH reports Covid-19 ICU / Total ICU beds each day - currently it is 1/ 1020 in NSW and 9/ 476 in Vic. So in NSW there is 1 ICU bed per 7,396 people, in Vic there is 1 ICU bed per 13,340 people. NSW has the best ICU capacity in the country.

Informative.

Would you know whether that includes the private hospital back up and any other spare / convertible capacity?

 

[nutwood]

It really is a mathematical question. I reckon most are familiar with the grain of rice and the chess board. It doesn't matter too much how many grains you start with. It's the exponential growth a few squares on that does the damage. Lock-downs stop that exponential growth.

 

[Lynda2475]

Would you know whether that includes the private hospital back up and any other spare / convertible capacity?

Not sure. SMH states : Health system capacity - ICU bed capacity from Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society and updated with state and territory health department media releases when they increase capacity.
Website

 

[serfty]

5.
Today, last day before Melbourne lockdown - 160 (<10% commercial) traffic is typical of what we experience during early January, the peak time of the year.

Makes sense.

I was driving to Buniings and back around 5pm and reports on the radio were coming in of many heading away from midnight lock down to "start" their holidays. Places like Phillip Island, Lorne and Lakes Entrance seem popular.

 

[RooFlyer]

Here you go @nutwood :

Airline unveils new flight routes and times to the mainland (Hobart Mockery - paywalled, God knows why)

JETSTAR is preparing to relaunch direct services between Tasmania and Adelaide and Brisbane next week, but the move remains subject to evolving coronavirus restrictions.

The airline said two Hobart-Adelaide and Hobart-Brisbane services per week were set to resume next week.

Up to two services per week between Launceston and Brisbane are also planned to resume from next week, while flights between Hobart and Sydney and Launceston and Sydney are likely to be back by the end of this month.