Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[nutwood]

Here you go @nutwood :

Airline unveils new flight routes and times to the mainland (Hobart Mockery - paywalled, God knows why)

Thanks for that. They certainly make it hard to plan though. I quote jobs, based on available flights. The next day the flights have all changed. Yesterday I could get to Adelaide by driving to Hobart and flying with Jetstar on the 16th. Today, the only available flights are the 12th and 17th. All well and good, except I've committed to being in Adelaide on the 17th and the flight doesn't get in until 7.15 pm!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

SMH reports Covid-19 ICU / Total ICU beds each day - currently it is 1/ 1020 in NSW and 9/ 476 in Vic. So in NSW there is 1 ICU bed per 7,396 people, in Vic there is 1 ICU bed per 13,340 people. NSW has the best ICU capacity in the country.

As 476 ICU bed totals were reported for Victoria back in 2017/18, I doubt that is still reflective of what is actually available today.



Your source staes 476 ICU beds in Vic. This was reported as that in 2017/18, see above.

In Victoria for example this year back in April it was reported:

• A further 300 intensive care unit beds have also begun to be commissioned at the Alfred Hospital, Austin Hospital and Monash Medical Centre in Clayton
• In Berwick, existing patients have begun moving into Casey Hospital’s new 128-bed inpatient tower to ensure the hospital has capacity to receive coronavirus patients, while also helping take some of the strain off the major tertiary hospitals nearby. The tower’s 12 bed ICU – the first in the area – will open shortly.
• A further 84 beds will be available at the former Peter MacCallum Cancer, with works already underway to re-establish essential services such as plumbing and power – to get the building ready for patients again. (Note this is a dedicated CV19 facility)
• The former Geelong Private Hospital has been brought back to life – with the disused building having undergone a rapid renovation to provide a new Acute Respiratory Assessment Clinic with 50 new beds and consulting rooms. (Note this is a dedicated CV19 facility)

Plus there has been expansion at many other Victorian hospitals in both the Melbourne region as well in regional rural locations. There are also pop-up capacity such as the one now deployed at the Showgrounds for the apartment towers.

 

[Lynda2475]

Your source staes 476 ICU beds in Vic

i didnt guarantee it was accurate its just what fairfax papers The Age and SMH have been repprting every day. If grossly out of date then perhaps worth challenging them.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Stories like this make it worrying.

One day negative test result. Next day (2 days after test taken) body breaking down due to COVID-19. Note he also had Type 1 diabetes. But still noteworthy how quickly things can change after a test.

One day after testing negative for coronavirus, Ahmed was in emergency with the virus

Melbourne youth leader Ahmed Hassan was told his COVID-19 test was negative, but the next day he was rushed to hospital in terrible pain and shaking, and now testing positive for coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

Perhaps a potential issue if one is tested too early - still need a second test and/or period of isolation?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

i didnt guarantee it was accurate its just what fairfax papers The Age and SMH have been repprting every day. If grossly out of date then perhaps worth challenging them.

If I challenged every grossly out of date data reference repeated in the media it would be a never ending task. Unfortunately many in the media also just copy and paste from one another as well.

Instead as I thought your quoted reference was low I looked at your source and then looked for their data on Vic, noticed it was years old and so then looked for references as to what was current with respect to ICU beds. Given the number of new ICU beds commissioned recently in Victoria it would seem to me that 476 beds for Vic is underestimating what is actually available.

The Vic Government did state that they were going to add 2000 ICU beds, but as peak ICU cases in Vic to date from Covid 19 has only been 18, and in NSW I believe in the 40s they most likely have mothballed much of that extra stated expansion. Ventilator use has also been much lower and indeed treatments now try and avoid intubation as much as possible.

In addition the focus in the hospitals that I know people in has been to develop CV19 wards as they want to avoid mixing the CV19 positive or CV19 possible in with other patients. So the more critical thing at present is capacity to care for CV19 Positive/Positive patients with minimal risk to staff, other patients and the at risk patients.

As already also stated the Government also recommissioned two dedicated facilities, but these are largely unused as the cases never surged.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Stories like this make it worrying.

One day negative test result. Next day (2 days after test taken) body breaking down due to COVID-19. Note he also had Type 1 diabetes. But still noteworthy how quickly things can change after a test.

One day after testing negative for coronavirus, Ahmed was in emergency with the virus

Melbourne youth leader Ahmed Hassan was told his COVID-19 test was negative, but the next day he was rushed to hospital in terrible pain and shaking, and now testing positive for coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

It is good to see them getting articles such as this out there to demonstrate that anyone can catch it and require hospitalisation, including in this case a 23 year old.

Perhaps a potential issue if one is tested too early - still need a second test and/or period of isolation?

Viral load can take days to get great enough to give a positive test result. I think is why that in say in quarantine they often do the first test on Day3.

 

[Flying mermaid]

It's what they did on Sunday and Monday, before getting tested on Tuesday, that has me somewhat worried.

Apart from the visits mentioned before, one of them was supposed to be working at Betty’s Burgers at the Canberra Centre which was due to open on the 13th, so they were there on Monday.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well now I know things are serious in Vic again. My wife just started a new jigsaw tonight, and so she is obviously expecting few trips outside the home and no visitors for a while

She had not started a new one for quite some time this pandemic. But when things originally took off she dusted off a few that had sat in cupboards for years untouched.

 

[Himeno]

Apart from the visits mentioned before, one of them was supposed to be working at Betty’s Burgers at the Canberra Centre which was due to open on the 13th, so they were there on Monday.

The reports don't say what they did while in those locations, just that they were there. That lack of detail could prove problematic.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The reports don't say what they did while in those locations, just that they were there. That lack of detail could prove problematic.

Probably don’t want to alarm people too much. They seemed to think the risk was very low at Fyshwick and Belconnen so just wanted people to be on the watch for symptoms and get tested. Doing a deep clean at the burger place and workers have to isolate. I wonder if they did anything else at the Canberra Centre - it’s a big place.....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well half way through the pandemic Victoria was one of the better performing states on a cases per head of population basis.

Sadly we are now officially the worst having overtaken first NSW and then Tasmania and in recent days

 

[lovetravellingoz]

JUST VENTING

Well today I must admit that I am extremely uneasy as it is now school holidays in Victoria.

That means that some people will be on the move. We also know from other recent breaks that families holiday together, and we also know that family transmission and other social gatherings is at the heart of recent transmission.

Plus yesterday we saw cases outside of the 10 hotspot suburbs (ie Box Hill), though these cases were where people were working rather than where they lived and so they may live a hotspot.


I think what the authorities are now doing is reasonable (Personally I would have had extra restrictions in the hotspot suburbs, and tighter restrictions statewide on gatherings). BUT I think that they are at least two weeks behind with doing it. The northern suburb family spread was obvious for at least a month prior, and the refusal to act on local hotspots with local measures till last week has been very costly. How costly we are about to find out.

In just over a week we will know if they acted too late, or just in time. But school holidays has the potential to spread the hotspots far and wide.

Well I posted that on 26th June.

So yes it is now clear that they acted at least two weeks too late, and yes it also clear that the tighter gathering limits should have been re-introduced in late June rather than waiting for more data.

The lesson is clear, if you have a hotspot you need to jump on it immediately. The unwillingness to roll out localised measures in a timely manner now means that a sledge hammer is required, and that the several hotspots is now the whole of Melbourne. Though perhaps the penny has dropped at last for at least with the apartment towers they seem to have acted in a more timely manner.

PS: If the reports are true of significant numbers of people moving today from Melbourne to holiday homes and paid holiday accommodations then that may end up being the latest bungle. The new rule that you had to stay at your principal place of residence should have been made immediate the day it was announced. Yes people who were already away could finish, but to allow a new and possibly large wave to leave today could well be disastrous. I can only hope that the reports are exaggerated. Normal holiday changeovers are mainly on Saturdays and not mid-week. So if there was a surge today, then it means people have sought a loophole at the expense of others health.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I have no doubt that the exodus from Melbourne is more significant than many appreciate. I don't understand why we continue to give such long notice periods to people...I understand in a sense, but as above why couldn't the primary place of residence rule be made as of Tuesday night with the restaurants, gyms, cinemas etc closed from Wednesday?

If it's as bad as we're made to believe by the government then it's hard to reconcile all of this.

 

[MelMel]

Some traffic to holiday areas could be owners doing one last check. I know of someone who drove straight to their holiday house, checked everything over and drove straight back. They will not be going back until the lockdown is lifted.

 

[Pushka]

Well I posted that on 26th June.

So yes it is now clear that they acted at least two weeks too late, and yes it also clear that the tighter gathering limits should have been re-introduced in late June rather than waiting for more data.

The lesson is clear, if you have a hotspot you need to jump on it immediately. The unwillingness to roll out localised measures in a timely manner now means that a sledge hammer is required, and that the several hotspots is now the whole of Melbourne. Though perhaps the penny has dropped at last for at least with the apartment towers they seem to have acted in a more timely manner.

PS: If the reports are true of significant numbers of people moving today from Melbourne to holiday homes and paid holiday accommodations then that may end up being the latest bungle. The new rule that you had to stay at your principal place of residence should have been made immediate the day it was announced. Yes people who were already away could finish, but to allow a new and possibly large wave to leave today could well be disastrous. I can only hope that the reports are exaggerated. Normal holiday changeovers are mainly on Saturdays and not mid-week. So if there was a surge today, then it means people have sought a loophole at the expense of others health.

And into NSW and Canberra. Ski season. I think that's why SA delayed announcements until after Vic and SA school holidays were done. I agree. I think the Vic Govt has a great deal to answer for and I'm wondering if political allegiances, or rather, the opposite, with the Federal Govt has set up a belligerent attitude.

Yep. And I responded in kind. As did several others. Seems a lifetime ago but so predictive. And we are amateurs.

 

[SydneySwan]

I have no doubt that the exodus from Melbourne is more significant than many appreciate. I don't understand why we continue to give such long notice periods to people...I understand in a sense, but as above why couldn't the primary place of residence rule be made as of Tuesday night with the restaurants, gyms, cinemas etc closed from Wednesday?

If it's as bad as we're made to believe by the government then it's hard to reconcile all of this.

Certainly residents of the 9 towers will see this as more evidence of double standards.

 

[Pushka]

Certainly residents of the 9 towers will see this as more evidence of double standards.

Except that those towers had evidence of significant community spread - immensely higher pp than the rest of Melbourne. And they had to stop the use of community facilities. If there was any Government that would not want to do this unless absolutely essential then it would be the Andrews Govt.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well I posted that on 26th June.

So yes it is now clear that they acted at least two weeks too late, and yes it also clear that the tighter gathering limits should have been re-introduced in late June rather than waiting for more data.

The lesson is clear, if you have a hotspot you need to jump on it immediately. The unwillingness to roll out localised measures in a timely manner now means that a sledge hammer is required, and that the several hotspots is now the whole of Melbourne. Though perhaps the penny has dropped at last for at least with the apartment towers they seem to have acted in a more timely manner.

PS: If the reports are true of significant numbers of people moving today from Melbourne to holiday homes and paid holiday accommodations then that may end up being the latest bungle. The new rule that you had to stay at your principal place of residence should have been made immediate the day it was announced. Yes people who were already away could finish, but to allow a new and possibly large wave to leave today could well be disastrous. I can only hope that the reports are exaggerated. Normal holiday changeovers are mainly on Saturdays and not mid-week. So if there was a surge today, then it means people have sought a loophole at the expense of others health.

Yep. And I responded in kind. As did several others. Seems a lifetime ago but so predictive. And we are amateurs.

We should all go back through this thread and quote ourselves on everything we got 'right', being AFF accredited public health experts

 

[Flying mermaid]

Yep. And I responded in kind. As did several others. Seems a lifetime ago but so predictive. And we are amateurs.

I put a ban on my principal friend visiting us until 3 weeks after the July school holidays in early June. Opening up and school holidays was always going to be problematic. I also refused a request from a Sydney friend to stay with us in late July, on the 26th June, as I wanted to see what would happen in Melbourne. Felt over cautious at the time but thought Melbourne was looking unpleasant.

it’s not hard to see trends and I am sure Vic Govt could see them too. I guess they were hoping they could contain without more damage to the economy. It’s a learning curve and Vic is the guinea pig.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s probably the case that governments cannot impose harder conditions without evidence. (Ie more than 20 for hotspots, almost 1:100 for towers, and more than 150 for a Melbourne metro).

Responses like South Korea ie lockdown and testing nightclubs after outbreak occurred seemed to be part of the plan.

Also it’s hard when doing things the first time (ie having to re-lockdown).

Being too predictive is problematic if they were wrong.

But I do note the Vic Government was foreshadowing lockdowns - ‘I’ll be locking down all postcodes’

Unfortunately, either the foreshadowing is too late, or there were too many ‘law-abiding citizens‘ that refused to take the hint earlier.

I note NSW Government had started their foreshadowing of making an exclusion zone of the border towns. Have they (the public) learnt from the Vic experience?

Also note that the 2 Canberran didn’t heed the foreshadowing from their government to not travel to hotspots and that caused 3 cases in ACT reported yesterday.