Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I agree on both points.


But the government could act, but didn't till way too late. Evidence has been there for a while that private gatherings whether of family members or just friends was generating cases. But yet the limit on numbers was not reduced till way till late, and then initially till only till 5.

I think with schools that they are mainly clusters as they meant that parents new each other, and met away from the school gate. ie drop the kids at school and them meet at home for coffee afterwards. BBQ at weekend etc. It is easy to be comfortable with friends and social distancing then goes out the window.

With religious schools it is also probably more common that families will have cousins attend the same school. So again the school may seem to link them, but the spread comes from family gatherings, as well mixing with other non-family adults.

FAIr points but possibly by that point they were already rattled about having to soon or just deciding to impose postcode lockdown

The probably discussion between Vic Cho and premier

Cho I think we should do x
Premier are you sure 100%?
Cho umm, not 100%

One day later
Cho yes sure now.

That’s how I feel it went given the Cho has admitted regret in delaying cedar meats

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Students to now have daily temperature checks

Here’s the official announcement from the Victorian government:

Following the advice of Victoria’s Chief Health Officer, the Victorian Government has today announced that students at government schools in metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire will receive a temperature check every morning, with thermometers also provided to all non-government schools.

More than 14,000 non-contact infrared thermometers will be given to government, independent and Catholic schools in metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire, and to schools in neighbouring areas who need to undertake
testing.

The Government will also provide thermometers to those early childhood education and care services who require them.

Temperature checks will also be introduced for children from metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire who attend schools outside of these LGAs.

Operational guidance on temperature checks will be delivered to schools. If a student has a temperature of 37.5
degrees Celsius or above, schools will be required to contact parents or carers to arrange for students to return
home.

Families willthen be encouraged to seek testing for coronavirus orthe advice of their healthcare professional who can advise on next steps.

As announced on Tuesday, students in metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire enrolled in VCE and VCAL subjects, students whose parents and carers cannot work from home, and those attending local specialist schools will all return to school on Monday.

In addition, on site supervised holiday programs are available next week for vulnerable students and children of essential workers.

Schools in these areas will delay the return from holidays by a week with five pupil free days for Prep to Year 10
students next week to allow our teachers and school staff to prepare for a possible return to remote learning.

A decision about whether these year groups can safely return to face-to-face learning will be taken in the coming
week and based on the advice of our health experts.

There will be no changes to Term 3 for schools in regional Victoria other than Mitchell Shire.

Schools outside of metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire will return to face-to-face schooling as scheduled on Monday 13 July.


Though personally as I believe that as parents are the problem this is bit like miners using canaries to detect a problem. (Miners use gas detectors now)
Temperature checks of a cohort whom often show little symptoms also is probably not the most effective of measures, but it is at least a control measure.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

FAIr points but possibly by that point they were already rattled about having to soon or just deciding to impose postcode lockdown

The probably discussion between Vic Cho and premier

Cho I think we should do x
Premier are you sure 100%?
Cho umm, not 100%

One day later
Cho yes sure now.

That’s how I feel it went given the Cho has admitted regret in delaying cedar meats

It took me a second to realise that by Cho you meant Sutton the CHO.

With Cedar Meats I think that it was more that Sutton stated that if he had his time over again that he would have acted quicker.

I am starting to think that Sutton may be a little bit like Dr Fauci in the USA in that he is very knowledgeable, but that the politicians do not necessarily follow his recommendations. Though politicians do have to balance a range of issues. That balance seems to be off though.

 

[drron]

To be fair the large family gatherings in Victoria and the large school social gatherings have a definite link pertaining to the nature of the school.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

To be fair the large family gatherings in Victoria and the large school social gatherings have a definite link pertaining to the nature of the school.

Yes I agree. I actually posted mid June that a lot of the new cases were being fuelled amongst families of religious schools. Those schools being of various faiths including many catholic ones.

The largest school cluster was one also one of the last to be detected. First case notified on 27 Junes and up to 102 now. So that is rapid acceleration. It is thought to be unusual in that it is believed that a lot of the spread was via older students, and this may be why the transmission has been so rapid. But family spread is also a thought to be a factor. It is an islamic school and is a very large school with 2000 students., and so size will also have been a factor.


What started as a teacher testing positive at Al-Taqwa College in Melbourne’s west has now morphed into one of Victoria's biggest clusters. While the outbreak also has links to other family clusters in the area, Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has said the Al-Taqwa outbreak is unusual compared to other school cases seen so far because many cases of the virus seem to have been picked up inside the college itself rather than outside in the community.


The state government was notified of the first known case on June 27, after the school had closed for holidays. This teacher is believed to have worked for two days while infectious. More than 2000 students and hundreds of staff at the large school have now been sent into quarantine and are being tested for the virus. It's believed the bug was mostly spread by senior students after they returned to face-to-face learning in term two.

"[Older kids] tend to have more transmission that is akin to adults if they’re not doing the physical distancing appropriately," Professor Sutton said, adding the rapid-fire increase in cases at the school was a reminder to get tested for even the mildest symptoms, whatever your age.

How many infections or deaths have followed?

Infections have exploded from the single case first identified on June 27 to 102 by July 8.

What has come out of it?

The school has issued a statement defending its hygiene and social distancing regime. "Temperature checks on a daily basis were conducted for all staff, students and anyone needing to visit the school," it said. "Any staff or student that presented with even the mildest cold and flu symptoms were sent back home as a safety precaution." Details of how the outbreak spiralled are still being investigated.


So hotel security guards seeding out the virus. Families then spreading it, with families involved with independent schools being particularly involved.

 

[Pushka]

With masks, 3 might be enough (1 entry, 1 first test, 1 second test) but i hope they are told how to use correctly and give additional masks before any needed additional tests

Totally agree. Because there hasn’t been direction until now about wearing masks at all, there has been no information about how to correctly wear them, when to dispose of them and how to dispose of them.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’m revising my thoughts about the sporting hubs for in particular AFL players from Victoria. I didn’t see great issues in leaving families when the restrictions in Victoria were easing so that families and friends grandparents could visit, for new mums. But now that support has been withdrawn (again) and they simply don’t know when their partners are going to be able to return. At least 6 weeks. I don’t think that is tenable for young families who aren’t allowed extra support emotional and physical.

We have very different views on this. For me, I look at the bigger picture. 6 weeks away from the family to earn your $300,000 a year. That's a lot of money to invest in your children's future.

 

[Gremlin]

I am starting to think that Sutton may be a little bit like Dr Fauci in the USA in that he is very knowledgeable, but that the politicians do not necessarily follow his recommendations. Though politicians do have to balance a range of issues. That balance seems to be off though.

It's not like there's a universally straightforward answer though. There's also been a fair bit of criticism directed at various state premiers, especially Andrews, for the damage done to the economy by not opening up fast enough, including in the last month when the virus was once again taking hold. Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think it's going to be completely clear exactly what the right course of events should have been, only what it shouldn't have been.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

WithMelbourne under lockdown, the Vic numbers seem less relevant

covid19data reporting 165 new cases today with 9 of those being reclassification.

To me, the only relevant numbers at the moment in Vic are how many in hard lockdown towers and how many in regional Vic.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

For everyone saying they were right.....

According to news.com.au, in the context of what NSW should do, Prof Mary-Louise McLaws said if we [NSW] reached 100 cases in a 14-day period outside of the quarantine hotels, the state could end up like Victoria.

By my reading of Victoria’s data (I was reading a graph, not a table) 100 cases over the past 14 days was reached on about 30/6.

Hopefully NSW ‘take action’ position is about 50 cases over 14 days for a population of almost 5.5 million.

 

[jase05]

To me, the only relevant numbers at the moment in Vic are how many in hard lockdown towers and how many in regional Vic.

• Eighteen cases relating to the North Melbourne and Flemington public housing towers, with the total now 111. Testing concluded at the estates on Wednesday night, and further lab results are expected later today and are not included in this number.

 

[jakeseven7]

For everyone saying they were right.....

According to news.com.au, in the context of what NSW should do, Prof Mary-Louise McLaws said if we [NSW] reached 100 cases in a 14-day period outside of the quarantine hotels, the state could end up like Victoria.

By my reading of Victoria’s data (I was reading a graph, not a table) 100 cases over the past 14 days was reached on about 30/6.

Hopefully NSW ‘take action’ position is about 50 cases over 14 days for a population of almost 5.5 million.

Not that I trust a word from NoNews.com.au, but if thats correct then 7 a day in Sydney over two weeks triggers a slam down again?

 

[Pushka]

We have very different views on this. For me, I look at the bigger picture. 6 weeks away from the family to earn your $300,000 a year. That's a lot of money to invest in your children's future.

Well yes but at this stage it will be more than 6 weeks because the other states won't release their border to Victoria at this time so possibly many more weeks on top of that. And even the best of new mums need a lot of physical and emotional support.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not that I trust a word from NoNews.com.au, but if thats correct then 7 a day in Sydney over two weeks triggers a slam down again?

Well is someone’s opinion news? Haha lol

You might note the Expert said ’could’...and their suggested benchmark was suggesting it could be at that point too late. Nothing definitive to work off, how does one expect a politician to decide with such rubbery opinions.

 

[SydneySwan]

I am starting to think that Sutton may be a little bit like Dr Fauci in the USA in that he is very knowledgeable, but that the politicians do not necessarily follow his recommendations. Though politicians do have to balance a range of issues. That balance seems to be off though.

In my experience it is because the scientists / medics are evidence-based. They rarely see things as being absolutely 100% certain as they are always open to the exception. This can make them hesitate as they seek more data. In the meantime the decision gets deferred for another day .... and then another day....

In my IT career I was often asked if I could give a 100% guarantee that if some change / patch was implemented then everything would work perfectly. I couldn't do that because something else unconnected to that patch might cause something else to go wrong. Ultimately no decision can be made with 100% certainty.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's not like there's a universally straightforward answer though. There's also been a fair bit of criticism directed at various state premiers, especially Andrews, for the damage done to the economy by not opening up fast enough, including in the last month when the virus was once again taking hold. Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think it's going to be completely clear exactly what the right course of events should have been, only what it shouldn't have been.

Yes I agree on that.

It is also that what is appropriate may change as the state of infection/cases change. So the "answer" various on what the status quo is.

Vic like every other state was approaching zero, and from that certain decisions and are valid.

The virus conditions change though, and so that then also means that the "answer" becomes different.

What you do when cases have flatlined is quite different that when there is an outbreak. Morseo again when that outbreak has become multiple clusters such as is now sadly the case in Victoria.

What the "answer" is is different than if you have the occasional few new cases such as now in the ACT and NSW.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think it's going to be completely clear exactly what the right course of events should have been, only what it shouldn't have been.

Yes agree, as there are all sorts of responses that can have been taking. ie Ramping up of testing and in hostpot testing opening it up to all was good.

But putting aside what the source of the new outbreak is (and the jungle drums seem to be more and more that the genomic sequencing is indicating the source of most new cases was the hotel security guards, and the people they then infected), what really hurt Vic this time around was the lack of speed in bringing in enough control measures, even if one can can argue about what the best measures would have been.

You could see the cases building, hotspots were forming but it was just the status quo re control (ie contact tracing, self isolation etc).


PS: The other factor is that we lean more about the virus every day.

 

[Must...Fly!]

AHPPC has just advised masks be used within Melbourne & Mitchell shire in scenarios where you can not socially distance....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Of great concern now is the number of healthworkers and staff at aged care facilities who are testing positive. Fortunately the residents of aged care are not yet testing positive.

Salient points from today's update from the Vic Department of Health & Human Services

Of yesterday’s new cases that have already been linked to outbreaks, the breakdown includes:

• 18 cases relating to the North Melbourne and Flemington public housing towers, with the total now 111. Testing concluded at the estates on Wednesday night, and further lab results are expected later today and are not included in this number.
• 6 new cases linked to the Al-Taqwa College outbreak, with the total now 113.
• One new case at the Catch.com Distribution Centre in Truganina taking the total number of cases for four. Further contact tracing is under way.
• One case linked to the Collins Street Hugo Boss outbreak – a household contact – taking the total to 8.

Other cases include:

• 2 healthcare workers have tested positive at the Royal Melbourne Hospital. Contact tracing is under way and close contacts will be required to quarantine for 14 days.
• 2 healthcare workers at Sunshine Hospital emergency department have tested positive. Contact tracing is under way and close contacts will be required to quarantine for 14 days.
• 1 further case in a staff member has been linked to the Northern Hospital in Epping, with the total now 11, made up of 9 staff and 2 household contacts.
• Positive cases have been linked to aged care facilities, these facilities are in lockdown and cleaning, contact tracing and appropriate testing is underway.
  • Cases in 2 staff members who worked at Menarock Life Aged Care in Essendon.
  • A staff member who attended BaptCare The Orchards Community in Doncaster while infectious.
  • A staff member who worked at Benetas St George’s in Altona Meadows while infectious.
  • A staff member who worked at BlueCross Ivanhoe while infectious.
  • A staff member who worked at Aurrum Aged Care facility in Healesville. The staff member was not infectious at the time.
  • A staff member who worked at Holmwood Aged Care facility in Healesville. The staff member was not infectious at the time.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

PS:
Just from personal knowledge.

The aged care centre that my MIL is at went into preventative lockdown (ie no actual cases) at 5PM Friday 26th June. Instruction was from head office.

The major Vic Hospitals all tightened their protocols on Saturday 4th July. In essence all staff have to act as if all other staff and patients are CV19 positive at all times.

 

[dajop]

Of great concern now is the number of healthworkers and staff at aged care facilities who are testing positive. Fortunately the residents of aged care are not yet testing positive.

Completely anecdotal, but someone I was talking to who's had grandparents at different aged care facilities in north western Melbourne, and has been to hospitals in the area with them for treatment, suggested that staff could essentially be from the same groups of people we've seen the most significant spread in the community (i.e that demographic does supply a lot of health care workers in the region).

Agreed of concern as then it can easily spread to the vulnerable.