Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

The number of Victorians in ICU has escalated quickly.

The two major hospitals that I know people at were planning for this surge from Saturday (They continually review things on an ongoing basis. ie During the bushfires it was preparation for smoke inhalation) . My guess is that all the major hospitals would have have been. Some are more involved than others though.

It will most likely go a fair bit higher yet due the lag of new cases to becoming hospitalised till those that then worsen and require ICU.

Treatment is now better due to experience gained from around the world, and importantly the elderly are not yet as affected at present. Most of the elderly that I interact with as they know that their risk is greater, including my parents, were very cautious and when restrictions were lifted they still mainly acted as if they had not been lifted. However not all will have been so.

The aged care facilities tend to bring in restrictions earlier than the government.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Treatment is now better due to experience gained from around the world, and importantly the elderly are not yet as affected at present. Most of elderly that I interact with as they know that their risk is greater, including my parents, were very cautious and when restrictions were lifted they still mainly acted as if they had not been lifted. However not all will have been so.

i wouldn’t call myself elderly, but I am 68 and my friendship group ranges up to 79 years old. Everyone I know has been keeping themselves pretty isolated and only mixing with a select group (if at all) - and this is in Canberra where have had an incredibly low risk.

I agree it isn’t everyone though. I was fairly horrified when driving past a coffee shop, after they opened ,to see two elderly people with walking sticks, tottering into a coffee shop.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tas premier Gutwein has just announced that Tas borders will NOT be opening to anyone on 24 July, as previously planned (Was expected at least WA, SA, ACT and maybe QLD).

Citing mainly Victoria, but also:

“NSW have formed the view that Victoria is considered a significant risk and put in place a hard border,” he said.

“There have been 180,000 permits issued for travel across that border. Obviously there’s major freight routes across that border and I think in terms of NSW it will be watching the spread of the virus.

“Queensland has today opened their borders, with mass movements of people around the country to one location.

“ACT has already announced seeing positive cases in the Victorian outbreak and they’re working hard to get on top of the outbreak.”

Mr Gutwein said South Australia remained clear at this stage, being one of the most significant people movements into Victoria.


FFS! No better evidence than he's going for elimination. Unfortunately it seems most in Tas support this. I'm

 

[Pushka]

i wouldn’t call myself elderly, but I am 68 and my friendship group ranges up to 79 years old. Everyone I know has been keeping themselves pretty isolated and only mixing with a select group (if at all) - and this is in Canberra where have had an incredibly low risk.

I agree it isn’t everyone though. I was fairly horrified when driving past a coffee shop, after they opened ,to see two elderly people with walking sticks, tottering into a coffee shop.

Im finding some groups of the older age group to just not understand the social distance thing. Especially men in their '70's who will just stand wherever they want. But some women also. It frustrates me because this is the age group we are largely trying to protect, and so many are suffering so badly emotionally and financially to secure that protection, that it is like it is falling on deaf ears.

I heard an epidemiologist today state that several states have already met the WHO definition of complete suppression - two cycles on no community transfer. If Victoria can somehow do this too then it will be the new normal business then we just need to manage quarantine for overseas travellers better, and in one case, actually manage it, and it will be a much more positive future.

 

[moa999]

WA has also delayed stage 5 of response (a further loosening) until 1 Aug.

 

[Pushka]

WA has also delayed stage 5 of response (a further loosening) until 1 Aug.

I suspect SA won't release to NSW and ACT on 24th July either. Victorian school holidays and travellers have pretty much wiped that.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I suspect SA won't release to NSW and ACT on 24th July either. Victorian school holidays and travellers have pretty much wiped that.

Two people who went to a pub in Casula (just outside of Liverpool, Sydney), have tested positive. They also have a holidaymaker from Melbourne tested positive in the Sutherland area, so it’s going to be an interesting few weeks for NSW and ACT. We have 5 cases now (all connected to the two from Melbourne) and hundreds more coming back from Melbourne....

Ms FM and Mr FM were discussing today whether they should continue with Wednesday shopping or go to home deliveries for a few weeks.....

 

[Lynda2475]

3 cases today in NSW:

* NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said a 30-year-old woman and a man in his 50s both tested positive to the virus after visiting the Crossroads Hotel in Casula. The woman tested positive a few days ago but the man only returned a positive test result today. Chief medical officer Kerry Chant said there is a "strong possibility" the two cases were picked up from another person who was at the pub that day.

* a man in his 20s visited the Sutherland area from Melbourne, had been holidaying in a caravan. Hazzard says" New South Wales runs the risk at the moment of people coming out of particularly the Melbourne area, if they have ducked out of Melbourne, perhaps just before our new laws came in, our new orders, or perhaps they have come out since the orders, you would know that you are potentially a risk to the community of New South Wales. I would ask you at this point to consider packing up your caravan, packing up your tent or what else you have, and head home to Victoria"

 

[Pushka]

Two people who went to a pub in Casula (just outside of Liverpool, Sydney), have tested positive. They also have a holidaymaker from Melbourne tested positive in the Sutherland area, so it’s going to be an interesting few weeks for NSW and ACT. We have 5 cases now (all connected to the two from Melbourne) and hundreds more coming back from Melbourne....

Ms FM and Mr FM were discussing today whether they should continue with Wednesday shopping or go to home deliveries for a few weeks.....

And SA had hundreds of Victorians coming to SA before the hard closure last night because they'd rather be here where things are as good as they will be for a while, than facing 6 weeks of Deprivations in Victoria

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Tas premier Gutwein has just announced that Tas borders will NOT be opening to anyone on 24 July, as previously planned (Was expected at least WA, SA, ACT and maybe QLD).

Citing mainly Victoria, but also:

“NSW have formed the view that Victoria is considered a significant risk and put in place a hard border,” he said.

“There have been 180,000 permits issued for travel across that border. Obviously there’s major freight routes across that border and I think in terms of NSW it will be watching the spread of the virus.

“Queensland has today opened their borders, with mass movements of people around the country to one location.

“ACT has already announced seeing positive cases in the Victorian outbreak and they’re working hard to get on top of the outbreak.”

Mr Gutwein said South Australia remained clear at this stage, being one of the most significant people movements into Victoria.


FFS! No better evidence than he's going for elimination. Unfortunately it seems most in Tas support this. I'm

View attachment 222144

I agree with you.

I fully understand and support all states minimising mixing with Victorians at present with appropriate boarder controls..

The NSW/Vic Border being a special cases as there are the border town is that are effectively one town. So yes allow mixing there, but not with Vics away from the towns. That probably means restricting movement too of those in the NSW Border Towns.

with the other states and territories, ignoring Vic and this Border towns, now really should be free to travel to each other freely, BUT yes jump on any new case as it appears. With so few cases it really should be possible to jump on any such new cases with an appropriate localised heavy hand as their should be ample resources.

This would allow all the rest of Australia to recover more, and for Australia as a whole to recover more.

PS: Yes say use Qld opening up as a test case if you wish.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Probably not surprising given the large number of cases both today, and in previous days, but the DHHS has released a lot less data today and virtually no salient points.

The cases by LGA has 281 cases versus the 288 announced to day, and there is gap here too. However from what was included today the vast majority of cases are still in the main hotspot areas. But there is certainly spread far and wide though mainly within the GMMA.

VIC CASES LGA
Fri 10 Jul

LGA	HOT	CASES(Edited)	DEL	LAST 24 HRS
Hume		331		32
Melbourne		318		97
Wyndham		234		23
Brimbank		211		14
Moonee Valley		198		38
Moreland		166		9
Casey		133		1
Banyule		116		6
Stonnington		114		1
Whittlesea		108		6
Melton		96		5
Boroondara		87		3
Darebin		84		7
Greater Geelong		73		-1
Monash		70		4
Interstate		67		0
Yarra		66		4
Maribyrnong		64		3
Mornington Peninsula		64		1
Glen Eira		63		1
Port Phillip		62		2
Manningham		49		5
Hobsons Bay		47		7
Frankston		43		-1
Whitehorse		43		8
Bayside		39		1
Kingston		38		1
Greater Dandenong		30		0
Yarra Ranges		30		0
Nillumbik		28		0
Knox		27		0
Cardinia		23		1
Mitchell		23		3
Maroondah		20		0
Greater Shepparton		15		0
Greater Bendigo		12		-1
Wellington		12		0
Ballarat		11		0
Moira		11		0
Surf Coast		10		0
Latrobe		9		0
Macedon Ranges		9		0
Baw Baw		6		1
Mount Alexander		6		0
South Gippsland		6		1

 

[drron]

As for Peter Gutwein what is he thinking.Both VA and JQ announced they would commence flights HBA-BNE and JQ bringing back HBA-ADL flights based on his announcement then he goes and backflips.For goodness sake how long does SA have to go without community transmission before he thinks it is safe.

Quite frankly he needs to give businesses clear guidelines.I was still in Tassie when he brought forward the opening of pubs from 15/6 to 5/6 with 2 days notice.I went to one of my favourites in Devonport on the 6th and a fellow was just shutting up.I asked if he was going to be opening and he said on the 15th as planned-I had to organise staff and supplies for that date and no way did I have enough time to change that.

Maybe the other states might prohibit their citizens from visiting Tasmania for the next 6 months.Some certainity is sorely needed.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s becoming a bit irrelevant now anyway. The testing procedure has changed so much that they’re picking up loads of asymptomatic cases that wouldn’t have registered during the March/April testing rounds. If anything, it proves the virus has already spread far more than perhaps the powers that be were prepared to tell the public.

What will be telling now is the rate of hospital admission over the coming weeks. That’s really what they should be focusing on.

I thought yesterday since the metro lockdown decision was made and before the towers situation was ‘resolved’ that only the tower numbers and the regionals numbers would matter.

Now only the regional numbers matter as well as interstate numbers as a result of likely travel to and from Melbourne (eg school holidays).

Even if Melbourne numbers get to say 500 per day(hopefully not), I don’t think Vic Government /CHO has any plan for any further/harsher lockdown measures.

Yes hospitalization ICU and ventilator numbers we need to watch out for but it doesn’t seem to be even at 10% use by Vic/Melbourne COVID patients.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Probably not surprising given the large number of cases both today, and in previous days, but the DHHS has released a lot less data today and virtually no salient points.

The cases by LGA has 281 cases versus the 288 announced to day, and there is gap here too. However from what was included today the vast majority of cases are still in the main hotspot areas. But there is certainly spread far and wide though mainly within the GMMA.

VIC CASES LGA
Fri 10 Jul

LGA	HOT	ACTIVE CASES	DEL	LAST 24 HRS
Hume		331		32
Melbourne		318		97
Wyndham		234		23
Brimbank		211		14
Moonee Valley		198		38
Moreland		166		9
Casey		133		1
Banyule		116		6
Stonnington		114		1
Whittlesea		108		6
Melton		96		5
Boroondara		87		3
Darebin		84		7
Greater Geelong		73		-1
Monash		70		4
Interstate		67		0
Yarra		66		4
Maribyrnong		64		3
Mornington Peninsula		64		1
Glen Eira		63		1
Port Phillip		62		2
Manningham		49		5
Hobsons Bay		47		7
Frankston		43		-1
Whitehorse		43		8
Bayside		39		1
Kingston		38		1
Greater Dandenong		30		0
Yarra Ranges		30		0
Nillumbik		28		0
Knox		27		0
Cardinia		23		1
Mitchell		23		3
Maroondah		20		0
Greater Shepparton		15		0
Greater Bendigo		12		-1
Wellington		12		0
Ballarat		11		0
Moira		11		0
Surf Coast		10		0
Latrobe		9		0
Macedon Ranges		9		0
Baw Baw		6		1
Mount Alexander		6		0
South Gippsland		6		1

Very informative

For the non-locals which ones are outside the lockdown zone?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Im finding some groups of the older age group to just not understand the social distance thing. Especially men in their '70's who will just stand wherever they want. But some women also. It frustrates me because this is the age group we are largely trying to protect, and so many are suffering so badly emotionally and financially to secure that protection, that it is like it is falling on deaf ears.

My 88 year old non-internet, non-computer literate father strategy is to follow the advice that he gains via the ABC news, and to then be extra cautious.

He is concerned though that he is losing fitness and that may affect getting his CAMS Racing Licence renewed next time it is due.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Very informative

For the non-locals which ones are outside the lockdown zone?

Baw Baw and South Gippsland.

But in recent days others outside of the GMMA have included Greater Geelong, Bendigo and other locations. Port Fairy had a family of 4 holidaying there who on hearing that a close contact of their in Melbourne had tested posted and as they had symptoms returned to Melbourne, were tested and were positive. No postive tests have yet been shown amongst the locals down that way.

 

[jase05]

For goodness sake how long does SA have to go without community transmission before he thinks it is safe.

My gut feeling as that he has seen how many Victorians have crossed over to SA in the last couple of days and how many more have been given future exemptions and thinks it’s only a matter of time before SA sees outbreaks.
That’s the only reasoning I can think of

 

[lovetravellingoz]

My gut feeling as that he has seen how many Victorians have crossed over to SA in the last couple of days and how many more have been given future exemptions and thinks it’s only a matter of time before SA sees outbreaks.
That’s the only reasoning I can think of

But where do those Victorians live? Most Victorian country towns are CV19 free.

 

[RooFlyer]

My gut feeling as that he has seen how many Victorians have crossed over to SA in the last couple of days and how many more have been given future exemptions and thinks it’s only a matter of time before SA sees outbreaks.
That’s the only reasoning I can think of

Yes, that's his reasoning. Same with NSW etc. So basically if he can see any leakage from Victoria in the next two weeks, then it will be an indefinite closure of borders. At the beginning of the year, our economy had been one of the best performing for a year or more. Now we'll again be the beggars of the nation, and the nation will have much, much less to toss to the beggars.

 

[jase05]

Most Victorian country towns are CV19 free.

At the moment. With all these Melburnians fleeing the city and heading to their “holiday homes” in the country how long before that changes. With all the people moving about there is bound to be cases spring up in the regional areas