Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jase05]

216 in Victoria
1 death of a man in his 90’s

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

216 in Victoria
1 death of a man in his 90’s

By the sounds of the Vic press conference, no noteworthy regional spread. But I did note the CHO indicate that there were over 100 outbreaks in Melbourne metro.

Is there a benchmark when something is classed as an outbreak?

Also it seems Melbourne is tracking well in terms of mobility data (ie map usage/directions), so some good signs.

 

[Austman]

A compelling story of nurses attending the locked-down towers in Melbourne.

Not quite as it has been portrayed by the media:

I spent the week testing residents in Melbourne's locked-down towers. This is what I saw

My colleagues and I moved between buildings in Flemington and North Melbourne, testing thousands of terrified but lovely residents for COVID-19, writes Lisa Peters.

www.abc.net.au

 

[I love to travel]

A compelling story of nurses attending the locked-down towers in Melbourne.

Not quite as it has been portrayed by the media:

I spent the week testing residents in Melbourne's locked-down towers. This is what I saw

My colleagues and I moved between buildings in Flemington and North Melbourne, testing thousands of terrified but lovely residents for COVID-19, writes Lisa Peters.

www.abc.net.au

That was a great article thanks for posting. Good news stories are important right now.

 

[33kft]

Not quite as it has been portrayed by the media:

Shock horror. Being in Melbourne currently I'm thoroughly entertained by the reporting I've seen. I wouldn't want to ruin people's perception of what's really going on out there so I'll just have another beer at home while entertained by the sheer ignorance of those supposedly in the know.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So I gather non-Melbourne LGAs of concern are Geelong and Bendigo areas.

Over the past few days, they seem to have similar number of cases as ACT and Albury, with both getting one less active case (recovery, I hope) in the meantime. Mitchell getting to 9 with 3 more cases today.

No cases today for either Greater Geelong or Greater Bendigo.

Another 3 cases in Mitchell though. So it is bubbling along, though at a low level.

Overall spread in the country is not high today. Wellington, Greater Shepaton and Nilimbuk (just outside Melbourne) all with single cases.

 

[Pushka]

A compelling story of nurses attending the locked-down towers in Melbourne.

Not quite as it has been portrayed by the media:

I spent the week testing residents in Melbourne's locked-down towers. This is what I saw

My colleagues and I moved between buildings in Flemington and North Melbourne, testing thousands of terrified but lovely residents for COVID-19, writes Lisa Peters.

www.abc.net.au

Thankyou for the link. What a wonderful story and humanity from all. A pox on the media. Nurses are very special people.

 

[Flying mermaid]

A compelling story of nurses attending the locked-down towers in Melbourne.

Not quite as it has been portrayed by the media:

I spent the week testing residents in Melbourne's locked-down towers. This is what I saw

My colleagues and I moved between buildings in Flemington and North Melbourne, testing thousands of terrified but lovely residents for COVID-19, writes Lisa Peters.

www.abc.net.au

I read that earlier - very moving and a contrast to some of the info we have been getting about the towers

 

[serfty]

Here's one from the Age.

Shows in graphics how the municipalities' active cases increased from June 1st. Click ▶ or move the slider.

Victoria active coronavirus cases

Victoria active coronavirus cases

www.theage.com.au

Victoria active coronavirus cases]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Also it seems Melbourne is tracking well in terms of mobility data (ie map usage/directions), so some good signs.

Yes Victoria believe it or not has always tracked well in mobility data, and indeed at better levels than most. So that has not really been a cause of the current surge. It is more what some in Melbourne have done when they were not mobile.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-07-07_AU_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

The below are two interesting discussion articles on the surge that go through many factors:

The crucial mistakes that left millions of Melburnians in a second lockdown

How did the COVID crisis in Victoria escalate so quickly, and has the recent explosion in cases exposed a fundamental flaw in Australia's strategy for tackling the virus?

www.abc.net.au

What are the lessons from Australia's biggest outbreaks so far?

The coronavirus has made its 'explosive potential' felt in some severe outbreaks. What happened and what can we learn?

www.smh.com.au

PS. Different people will have different opinions of course, including different epidemiologists

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

No further cases in SA and ACT reported today according to covid19data, so overall (regional Vic, NSW, SA, Qld and ACT) a good day from the aspect of spillage/leakage from Melbourne.

Deputy CMO Coatsworth noted the concern about Crossroads Hotel in Casula not having identified the upstream source yet.

 

[Flying mermaid]

ACT will definitely get more cases - hopefully not community spread. We currently have 200 people in quarantine. Presumably returnees from Melbourne, plus close contacts of the previous cases.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The growing number of "older" persons who have now been infected is of great concern.


VIC AGE GROUP
Cases in the last 7 days
Click on the link above to see the full table and source.

60–64	168		23	3.5 %
65–69	135		16	2.4 %
70–74	111		14	2.1 %
75–79	46		8	1.2 %
80–84	37		5	0.8 %
85+	24		7	1.1 %

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Deputy CMO Coatsworth noted the concern about Crossroads Hotel in Casula not having identified the upstream source yet.

Was just on CH 10 news that the Crossroads Hotel case lives in the Blue Mountains and that 3 people that he lives are also now positive.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The growing number of "older" persons who have now been infected is of great concern.


VIC AGE GROUP
Cases in the last 7 days
Click on the link above to see the full table and source.

60–64	168		23	3.5 %
65–69	135		16	2.4 %
70–74	111		14	2.1 %
75–79	46		8	1.2 %
80–84	37		5	0.8 %
85+	24		7	1.1 %

If you are worried about them hospitalising or death, then I agree as a previous indication was that 1 in 6 were at risk of dying near the beginning Of the pandemic. But with better treatments, that rate should be a lot less now.

If you are worried about you or your family getting it, then be assured they have highlighted the range of things to minimise further community transmission - stay at home unless for work or school (and the other 3 reasons), social distancing, masks, hand washing, etc.......

Given some were already doing this before the formal lockdown occurred the Vic CHO is hopeful for some plateauing in 3-5 days.

 

[drron]

Yes Victoria believe it or not has always tracked well in mobility data, and indeed at better levels than most. So that has not really been a cause of the current surge. It is more what some in Melbourne have done when they were not mobile.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-07-07_AU_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

The below are two interesting discussion articles on the surge that go through many factors:

The crucial mistakes that left millions of Melburnians in a second lockdown

How did the COVID crisis in Victoria escalate so quickly, and has the recent explosion in cases exposed a fundamental flaw in Australia's strategy for tackling the virus?

www.abc.net.au

What are the lessons from Australia's biggest outbreaks so far?

The coronavirus has made its 'explosive potential' felt in some severe outbreaks. What happened and what can we learn?

www.smh.com.au

PS. Different people will have different opinions of course, including different epidemiologists

Even in a different ABC piece on the Victorian surge.

Professor Mueller thinks the majority of epidemiologists wouldn't accept the idea that we can eliminate the virus completely in Australia, because the virus is all over the world.

"We will need to find a good balance between locking borders, quarantining people when necessary, but also having the ability to deal with this because we can't just lock ourselves [away] forever."

We asked scientists what to do about the Victorian border. They had a surprising answer

Border closures can stop the spread of coronavirus if done well, say epidemiologists, but their public health benefits must be balanced against other costs — and the current position of some borders might not be practical.

www.abc.net.au

Also an interesting graph in that article.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If you are worried about them hospitalising or death, then I agree as a previous indication was that 1 in 6 were at risk of dying near the beginning Of the pandemic. But with better treatments, that rate should be a lot less now.

If you are worried about you or your family getting it, then be assured they have highlighted the range of things to minimise further community transmission - stay at home unless for work or school (and the other 3 reasons), social distancing, masks, hand washing, etc.......

Given some were already doing this before the formal lockdown occurred the Vic CHO is hopeful for some plateauing in 3-5 days.

Thank you for your concern, but it is your first point. I am mainly concerned for the elderly at large in the community.


My knowledge on treatments is good as one of my daughters is a nurse in one of the hospitals that treats CV 19 patients here in Melbourne, and has cared for some.

With respect to myself and family members. We have been strict and cautious throughout, in part as we have elderly parents. Stricter than most. Particularly my 88 year old dad and 86 year old mum. 82 year old MIL is a well run aged carer facility that is stricter than most.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Professor Mueller thinks the majority of epidemiologists wouldn't accept the idea that we can eliminate the virus completely in Australia, because the virus is all over the world.

"We will need to find a good balance between locking borders, quarantining people when necessary, but also having the ability to deal with this because we can't just lock ourselves [away] forever."
.

We asked scientists what to do about the Victorian border. They had a surprising answer

Border closures can stop the spread of coronavirus if done well, say epidemiologists, but their public health benefits must be balanced against other costs — and the current position of some borders might not be practical.

www.abc.net.au

Indeed, and even without travellers, or even essential workers, as freight airliner, merchant ship, iron-ore ships, container ships etc are arriving and departing from Australia every day and this must be so for Australia to operate, and so the risk of re-infection will remain and so suitable control measures will need to be in place for a long, long time yet.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Though have to disagree with the Prof on:

But he's concerned about exemptions that allow, for example, essential travellers in cross-border communities to travel up to 50 kilometres into South Australia.

"That would be one major potential threat

Yes Melbourne is a major threat at present, but I do not see the cross-border communities as a major threat based on the current data. Possible threat yes, major threat no.
If they get a spike then you bring in a higher level of control. But perhaps the Prof defines what is a major threat differently than I do.

I think living with the virus would be having bubbles around the border towns as the risk is very low at present.

 

[Pushka]

Can I have a layman's interpretation of today's results in Vic please?