Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Happened to get an interesting snippet of today's Qld press conference

Qld CHO worried about huge infections when it becomes big numbers 10,000s because of the logistics, even if the proportion of those that are sick is small.

 

[kyle]

Observation downtown Hobart today. At least 50% - maybe 3/4 - of people on the street are wearing masks - even though not required ( indoors only required).

Is there much point wearing masks outside? Just impedes breathing I would have thought.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Media speculation (first few para)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has given the strongest signal yet that mask restrictions will be introduced across NSW ahead of Christmas.
Mr Morrison will meet with state and territory leaders today for an emergency national cabinet meeting to discuss the growing number of Omicron cases in the country.
Previously, the body was not scheduled to meet until early next year.
Speaking to Nine’s Today on Wednesday, Mr Morrison confirmed he had spoken to NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet regarding the rising Covid-19 cases and that “practical” decisions would be made in response to the rising Covid-19 cases.
“I have spoken to the NSW Premier quite regularly because that is where we’ve seen the biggest surge in cases. Practical decisions will be taken there” he said.
“You know, you should be wearing [masks] anyway. You don’t have to wait to be told in this country.”
...

‘What is the advice?’: Confusion over mask mandates

The federal government’s top medical adviser has declined to specify whether premiers and chief ministers were advised to mandate mask-wearing indoors at today’s emergency national cabinet meeting.

www.news.com.au

 

[drron]

Observation downtown Hobart today. At least 50% - maybe 3/4 - of people on the street are wearing masks - even though not required ( indoors only required).

Same in Launceston. Though 75% of women and 25% of men.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Happened to get an interesting snippet of today's Qld press conference

Qld CHO worried about huge infections when it becomes big numbers 10,000s because of the logistics, even if the proportion of those that are sick is small.

What a shame they've had no time to prepare for this

 

[jakeseven7]

What a shame they've had no time to prepare for this

Came out of nowhere

Wait, maybe our outgoing CHO forgot to plan for it because they were to focussed on what cake to serve at the GG’s charity morning tea

 

[Must...Fly!]

I more wonder how on earth Queensland manage to cope during regular flu seasons. The logistics must've been horrific.........

 

[RooFlyer]

Is there much point wearing masks outside? Just impedes breathing I would have thought.

Probably not much, unless pretty high density. But it might make a difference in a 'fleeing contact'.

I wasn't going to wear a mask today except when I had to ( inside) but found i just kept it on most of the time for convenience, to save fiddling with putting it on and off.

 

[drron]

Tassie figures today. Still none in hospital.

 

[drron]

An interesting breakdown of NSW hospitalisation numbers since Omicron.

 

[Lynda2475]

An interesting breakdown of NSW hospitalisation numbers since Omicron.

But what they need to report is how many of the hospitalizations are Delta vs Omicron.

On Monday night was talking with a friend who is an ICU nurse in Covid ward at Concord Hospital and she said 100% of the covid patients in ICU there have Delta.

Whilst we know Omicron is the dominant strain in NSW now, it does not appear the be dominant variant for serious illness.

There is still considerable Delta circulating, just look at Victoria only a handful of Omicron but higher hospitalisation and ICU numbers than NSW - they are Delta. Delta is still what is primarily causing serious illness.

Unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people still dominate ICU in all states, and the fully vaccinated in ICU all have other underlying conditions.

Stop panicking, Omicron may be creating positives but it isnt killing the volume of people that Delta is.

** Edited to add - In USA Omicron is now the dominant variant yet has only been 1 Omicron death, says it all really given the number of covid deaths in the USA everyday.

 

[antycbr]

But what they need to report is how many of the hospitalizations are Delta vs Omicron.

On Monday night was talking with a friend who is an ICU nurse in Covid ward at Concord Hospital and she said 100% of the covid patients in ICU there have Delta.

Whilst we know Omicron is the dominant strain in NSW now, it does not appear the be dominant variant for serious illness.

There is still considerable Delta circulating, just look at Victoria only a handful of Omicron but higher hospitalisation and ICU numbers than NSW - they are Delta. Delta is still what is primarily causing serious illness.

Unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people still dominate ICU in all states, and the fully vaccinated in ICU all have other underlying conditions.

Stop panicking, Omicron may be creating positives but it isnt killing the volume of people that Delta is.

** Edited to add - In USA Omicron is now the dominant variant yet has only been 1 Omicron death, says it all really given the number of deaths in the USA everyday.

In effect you'd want Omicron to "crowd out" Delta as quickly as possible... Like Delta replaced earlier variants.

 

[Lynda2475]

In effect you'd want Omicron to "crowd out" Delta as quickly as possible... Like Delta replaced earlier variants.

And if they publish the hospital data by variant it would help the panicky states see sense.

 

[drron]

But what they need to report is how many of the hospitalizations are Delta vs Omicron.

On Monday night was talking with a friend who is an ICU nurse in Covid ward at Concord Hospital and she said 100% of the covid patients in ICU there have Delta.

Whilst we know Omicron is the dominant strain in NSW now, it does not appear the be dominant variant for serious illness.

There is still considerable Delta circulating, just look at Victoria only a handful of Omicron but higher hospitalisation and ICU numbers than NSW - they are Delta. Delta is still what is primarily causing serious illness.

Unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people still dominate ICU in all states, and the fully vaccinated in ICU all have other underlying conditions.

Stop panicking, Omicron may be creating positives but it isnt killing the volume of people that Delta is.

** Edited to add - In USA Omicron is now the dominant variant yet has only been 1 Omicron death, says it all really given the number of covid deaths in the USA everyday.

You don't need to know the proportion of delta at all to make sense of that graph. What it is showing that as the proportion of Omicron CASES rise the lower the percentage of cases are being admitted to hospital.

So why do you think I am panicking. I am very encouraged by those results. and just for more celebrations they back up reports from other parts of the world.
South Africa where omicron only has 20% of the hospitalisations compared to Delta and 30% the rate of severe infection.

Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa

Background The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) almost completely replaced other variants in South Africa during November 2021, and was associated with a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess clinical severity of individuals infected with Omicron, using S Gene Target...

www.medrxiv.org

So why is there all this agitation to rush out and get boosters.many trials now showing that double vaxxed plus natural infection gives you greater protection than vaccination alone. So for healthy people under 60 may be should hasten slowly.

 

[Lynda2475]

So why is there all this agitation to rush out and get boosters.many trials now showing that double vaxxed plus natural infection gives you greater protection than vaccination alone.

If getting covid didnt leave you in limbo re timely medical clearance to rejoin society and travel Id be happy to get it, especially Omicron since most dont even know they have it.

 

[N860CR]

If getting covid didnt leave you in limbo re timely medical clearance to rejoin society and travel Id be happy to get it, especially Omicron since most dont even know they have it.

This is my view as well (although I’m fairly sure I caught covid when overseas in March 2020 anyway).

Data seems to suggest that two doses and an exposure is your best long term defense. I’m more than happy to “catch it” and move on, but not so happy with the restrictions that places on me.

This is the messaging we need to start getting out, but it’s not there yet. You only need to look at local community Facebook groups panicking with posts like “FYI everyone, Tom’s fish and chips had a staff member test positive!!!” to realise we’re still looking at “cases” the wrong way.

I’ve had a stressful afternoon trying to figure out what was happening to a friend of mine. Has disappeared off the radar for a few days and then cancelled his NYE party without so much as explaining it to anyone. Bit of prodding and it turns out he’s “positive” yet because of the stigma is scared to tell anyone (fairly new immigrant). It’s a sad state of affairs.

 

[Pushka]

Chicken pox parties of my youth revisited.

 

[QF WP]

Other than meeting a client 6 months after she had COVID (in 2020), this is he closest I've been to a COVID case (got this today from our property agent who used to manage our unit, not even from the current managers):

"We have been informed that a tenant from Unit 19 has tested positive for Corona Virus in the complex. Should you be of close contact or have any symptoms we advise you to get tested immediately. This has only just been notified to us by the agent managing Unit 19."

The closest I've been is walking past their front door on the common driveway when out walking my dog.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Other than meeting a client 6 months after she had COVID (in 2020), this is he closest I've been to a COVID case (got this today from our property agent who used to manage our unit, not even from the current managers):

"We have been informed that a tenant from Unit 19 has tested positive for Corona Virus in the complex. Should you be of close contact or have any symptoms we advise you to get tested immediately. This has only just been notified to us by the agent managing Unit 19."

The closest I've been is walking past their front door on the common driveway when out walking my dog.

Interesting they would identify the resident. That is completely the opposite of my complex where no personal details are revealed, just a message saying there's a positive case in the building and monitor for symptoms etc

 

[Quickstatus]

Needing to wear a mask outside (something that has never ever been required in NSW) is a turn off to visiting Victoria. At some point you need to be able to breathe some fresh air.

General comment:
Either masks improves air quality or it does not. If it improves inspired air quality inside, surely it will also improve air quality outside.

The overall quality of evidence for mask wearing is low. There has never been a randomised controlled study looking at the effectiveness of mask wearing and i dont think there will ever be any done - too many confounding factors.
Social distancing, increased hygiene, restrictions in travel, and mask wearing. To what extent did it play in reducing the Reff. It would be very difficult to untangle the contribution of the individual components. Then what about in combination.
Proper studies on cloth masks vs surgical masks vs N95?. Very difficult to do such studies because there are many confounding factors.

Basically there is not good quality evidence for and no good quality evidence against wearing a mask.

BTW Mask wearing has been mandated outdoors in NSW. Did you forget this:


(July 2021)




(August 2021)