Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Quickstatus]

Actually you can if his death was hastened by Covid.

Disagree, he died with Covid not from Covid

Unknown - unless you know what’s on the death certificate.

However Niemann-Pick A is invariably fatal by age 3 from respiratory failure and or liver failure. Even a common cold would hasten death.
The media calls it N-P “rare” but it’s about 1:100000 - 1:200000 which is about the same as the TTS from AZ

At the other end of the scale, Covid also hastens death in people of advanced age. It’s strange to see people morally concerned about Covid in these populations when there was no concern with the common cold/flu. It would be an interesting exercise to see by how many years Covid has shortened the lives of the people who died - especially those of advanced age and in people with significant comorbidities.

Not any more people are dying annually during the Covid pandemic than before in Australia.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Indigenous communities, health and aged care workers considered priority for RAT kits, says PM​

"We also discussed the key priorities for rapid antigen test, particularly those provided publicly, and they are firstly, the health and aged care workforce. The Commonwealth looks after aged care and the states and territories look after the health workforce, and for symptomatic and close contacts, which is provided tthrough the state testing centres and thirdly, for vulnerable communities. That is particularly Indigenous communities. And a good note there, just like 12 to 15-year-olds, our double dose vaccination rate for Indigenous communities is now over 75%. The first dose is also up to 80%. That is a tremendous result and I want to thank all those in those Indigenous communities and Indigenous leaders for the great work have been doing right across the country."

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

PM announces easing of restrictions for close contacts​

"To further ease the pressure on supply chains, we extended the easing of restrictions for close contacts.
That is the one which enable someone who may be a close contact, they get a negative rapid antigen test and go straight back to work. They don't have to isolate, they just go straight back to work.
"The most immediate extension of that is to all transport, freight and logistics employees. Not just those directly involved in food distribution, but all in the transport, freight and logistics sector. That will include those who work at service stations to ensure that they can continue to be staffed and people can get access to those services.
"We will also be extending it to, if it hasn't already been done, in many cases it has, it will cover all welfare and support, emergency services, including law enforcement, correctional services, energy resources and water, waste management, food, beverage and other critical good supplies — that's the food distribution system and production system, I am not talking about hospitality there — telecommunication, data, broadcasting and media. It will also extend to education and childcare."

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

'It is absolutely essential for schools to go back safely and remain open safely', says Morrison​

"One of the most important ways of ensuring that our work force is not depleted, and we heard today from a Treasury Secretary that we could be looking at and up to 10% absenteeism from our work force, at any one time at its peak, that's 10% of the work was out by COVID.
"That's the impact of a highly contagious infection and virus. That's going to have an inevitable impact on the workforce and that has to be managed.
"If schools don't open, that can add an additional 5% of the absenteeism in the work force. It is absolutely essential for schools to go back safely and remain safely open if we are to not see any further exacerbation of the workforce challenges we are currently facing.
"Schools open means shops open. Schools open means hospitals are open. It means aged care facilities are open. It means essential services, groceries are on the shelves. That's what schools open means and it's very taken aback. And the health advice as they can go back."

 

[Quickstatus]

ATAGI chose to wait too long

No, they and for that matter everyone are operating in an environment where there is little real data to hang hat on.
Just because it’s obvious does not mean it’s good. ATAGI is tasked to assess vaccinations.

More boosters ?. Reduced interval boosters?. Booster 4,5,6 etc etc. There is increasingly good evidence that boosters or for that matter vaccinations actually do not significantly reduce transmission. Australia and Israel are demonstrating the pandemic of the vaccinated.

Some people will be about 3 months away from Jab4 - if the 5months is to be believed. When should we do Jab 4. I suspect the people of ATAGI are lacking in one tool - the Crystal Ball.

The big question: Did the reduction in the interval between Jab1 and Jab2 reduce Covid mortality and Covid hospitalisations?. How about the reduction in interval between Jab2 and Jab3.

Most of the narrative re timing of jabs seem to be driven by fear of the catastrophe around the corner, rather than a considered approach.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Agreed - and I just added a footnote after posting while thinking more about that

The public reporting of hospitalisations while interesting is not the true measure.

When we moved to living with Covid the measure was indicated to be whether the health system (including hospitals) was coping or not.

To be coping it has to be able to deal with all health matters, of which Covid is but just one, at a reasonable level. And by coping that needs to include both for the patient and for all the healthworkers.

Right here and now in at least Vic and NSW that is not the case as many non-Covid health matters are not being dealt with at a reasonable level, and many staff do not have an adequate quality of work.

Hopefully it soon will be again (Though yes there is always public debate about what that reasonable level should be. Wait times etc) by infections falling.


Hopefully a higher % of those boosted, will assist in reducing the impact on our health system.


PS:
Note that many aged care facilities are also under the pump at present. Staffing levels are affected and some residents in room lockdown etc.

One could also say the same about logistics etc at present.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Most SA students to resume school from home, as the state records four COVID deaths​

South Australia will resume school at the end of the month – but the majority of students will be learning from home for at least a fortnight.

The Premier Steven Marshall has announced schools will reopen on January 31, but only vulnerable students and the children of essential workers will be able to attend.

Classes will resume on February 2, but will be online, for sudents in year levels except for Reception, Year 1, Year 7, Year 8 and Year 12.

The government anticipates the online learning program to last a fortnight.

South Australia has recorded four deaths of people with coronavirus, while the number of people with the virus in hospital has risen to a new high of 225.

26 are intensive care, seven of them are on ventilators.

3,669 people tested positive to COVID-19 in the 24 hours to midnight, fewer than yesterday’s number, despite an increase in the number of tests.

 

[Quickstatus]

To be coping it has to be able to deal with all health matters, of which Covid is but just one, at a reasonable level.

Question: was the health system by that definition coping pre Covid?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Question: was the health system by that definition coping pre Covid?

My post included Though yes there is always public debate about what that reasonable level should be. Wait times etc

Irrespective of how you rate the pre-Covid level (poor, ok, good etc) the present level in NSW and Vic is at a much lower level. And today's level is clearly not adequate with the Omicron surge. Many would contend that the pre-Covid level was not adequate, but that level was still much better than now and so we need to get at least back to that. Many would like it to be better than it was.

To answer your question, my personal view is that for those who are less well off that it needs to be better than it was. Mental Health in particular was struggling.

 

[exceladdict]

'It is absolutely essential for schools to go back safely and remain open safely', says Morrison

When I read this, the first thing I thought is, well that's almost a guarantee that schools won't go back to normal anytime soon.

Unknown - unless you know what’s on the death certificate.

However Niemann-Pick A is invariably fatal by age 3 from respiratory failure and or liver failure. Even a common cold would hasten death.
The media calls it N-P “rare” but it’s about 1:100000 - 1:200000 which is about the same as the TTS from AZ

At the other end of the scale, Covid also hastens death in people of advanced age. It’s strange to see people morally concerned about Covid in these populations when there was no concern with the common cold/flu. It would be an interesting exercise to see by how many years Covid has shortened the lives of the people who died - especially those of advanced age and in people with significant comorbidities.

Not any more people are dying annually during the Covid pandemic than before in Australia.

Correct in that excess mortality in Australia went negative for a while, which in a strange way makes a case for perhaps maintaining the settings we had last year if average age is the sole measurement we are placing for success. I mean it's scary that the US saw it's biggest drop in life expectancy since WW2.

In response to some comments over the last week or so I wanted to chime in that, having lost an elderly family member overseas last year - with comorbidities but from covid - the fact they had a terminal diagnosis brought very little solace. They died alone, isolated from loved ones with their final days significantly hastened due to this disease. Absent covid, those could have been quiet months at home. I am not accusing anyone on this forum of doing so, but dismissing the seriousness of the loss of life, elderly or not and with or without comorbidities, is selfish.

Our living standards in Australia have been consistently dropping due to government policies over the last two decades. Without getting too far off topic, surely the length of life and quality of it are important things to balance if we are to look at what the various policy settings of government should achieve as we make our way out of this pandemic. Is person A being able to travel without quarantine worth the risk of person B succumbing to a preventable illness? How do these decisions impact larger groups of people, businesses, the economy? If the economy suffers, what direct impacts does it have on us and our children in the short and long term? Unfortunately, I perceive that politics is devolving into interest groups and lobbies, with short term gains usurping good, long term policy.

 

[MARTINE]

My post included Though yes there is always public debate about what that reasonable level should be. Wait times etc

Irrespective of how you rate the pre-Covid level (poor, ok, good etc) the present level in NSW and Vic is at a much lower level. And today's level is clearly not adequate with the Omicron surge. Many would contend that the pre-Covid level was not adequate, but that level was still much better than now and so we need to get at least back to that. Many would like it to be better than it was.

To answer your question, my personal view is that for those who are less well off that it needs to be better than it was. Mental Health in particular was struggling.

Irrespective of the people’s assessments of pre v post Covid in VICTORIA (as a retired doctor ) I say worse
Amongst my family/friends 5 elective operations - having paid top private health cover - cancelled.
OK - not life threatening ops for next 24 hours but entirely medically needed.
PreCovid it was never the case that I can recall.

 

[oz_mark]

Meanwhile in DPRWA

• two new local COVID-19 cases and
• 14 travel-related cases

 

[Pushka]

Irrespective of the people’s assessments of pre v post Covid in VICTORIA (as a retired doctor ) I say worse
Amongst my family/friends 5 elective operations - having paid top private health cover - cancelled.
OK - not life threatening ops for next 24 hours but entirely medically needed.
PreCovid it was never the case that I can recall.

Same. Surgeon has pencilled in March for sinus surgery in SA so fingers crossed. So once again private health pockets months of savings.

 

[Lynda2475]

which in a strange way makes a case for perhaps maintaining the settings we had last year if average age is the sole measurement we are placing for success

Not really, because the impact on quality of life and longer term life expectancy for younger people due to not being able to have elective surgery in a timely manager, not having access to routine preventative health checks (like breast screening, skin cancer checks etc), latent mental illness due to isolation will not show its full hand for some time yet.

 

[RAM]

An assumption on your part, not a published fact, assumes nothing was done to increase any capacity and absolutely says nothing about Queensland doing lions share. Nice try.

As one of the people who denied for some weeks back in July that there were break through infections from Delta impacting NSW Health staff - no surprise in your party line here.

A bit like how the Federal Govt keeps claiming that its provided RATs to the entire Federally Governed Aged Care sector - reality under 700 of the 2,703 Aged Care facilities had received any in the latest weekly report for w/e 7 Jan 2022.

NSW Public testing has not increased - see the site I provided the link for earlier. Grand total of just 15,000 tests can be processed per day.

Delays for test result processing in NSW blew out to over 7 days for many test results AND State Govt admited that on avg test results were taking more than 4 days (Dec 23 if you want to search for it - as don't bother asking for the links as you do not seem to ever look at them).
_______________________

Please provide evidence, rather than your unsubstantiated opinion, that PCR processing capacity within NSW has increased since July 2021?

Four different private pathology groups stated the opposite, as well as the link to the article provide about the Qld Premier where it also stated that due to batch testing no longer being viable that daily PCR processing capacity had fallen 50%.

 

[Quickstatus]

Irrespective of how you rate the pre-Covid level (poor, ok, good etc) the present level in NSW and Vic is at a much lower level.

Unfortunately as you have demonstrated, whether the health system was or was not coping really depends on perception.

And perceptions fuels opinion on what is “reasonable”. And perception is affected by personal experiences such as ability to access the health system.

People seem to have forgotten (or maybe they were not aware) the perennial bed block from Pre Covid years during winter, the long elective waiting lists, shortage of ICU beds. It’s only when Covid looms large (whether realistic or from fear) that people see catastrophe around the corner and start thinking.

Sure, have that debate about what is reasonable, but remember - that debate has been alive preCovid.

Here are some starter questions to ruminate on:
1) how much excess capacity should there be at any one time in the health system?. Think in terms of beds, nurses, Drs.
10%, 20%, 30%.

2) what is the reasonable time to wait for Category 3 elective surgery. Currently Cat 3 is within 365 days

3) how much should the Medicare levy be raised by to account for all that.

4) should there be excess capacity in the health system so that lockdown don’t need to be as severe to “flatten the curve”?. - one way to think about it is that either we pay for excess capacity upfront or we pay for it with lockdowns

 

[RAM]

NSW (337,818 active – 21,000 public hospital beds, 884 public/private ICU beds)
13/1 30,877 PCR+, 88k tests, 61,387 RAT+, 2383 hospital, 182 ICU

So more than 10% of the patients occupying beds in NSW are Covid +ve. One also has to ask whether all 21,000 beds are open and fully staffed. If not that makes the situation even worse.
Yes, I know that many of those patients are in hospital for reasons other than Covid, but staff still have to nurse them wearing PPE and ensure that all barrier precautions are strictly followed.
We haven't reached the peak in terms of infections in the community and the trend has always been that hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths tend to lag by about 2 weeks.
But it's just a cold.
Happy days...

Not sure where you got the NSW 21,000 public beds as the figures put out by Dominic Perrottet are 9,500 Public hospital beds of which 8,000 were occupied on Jan 6th.

6,400 non-covid in use and 1,600 Covid in use.

Now 'renting' or about to 'rent' fully staffed (if staff not too sick) private beds totalling 3,000 (IIRC). Plan is to shift as many non-Covid cases to Private hospitals.

Almost all 12,500 hospital beds in NSW could be full during Omicron peak in worst-case scenario

Modelling predicts 6,000 people could be hospitalised with Covid in the second half of January

www.theguardian.com

Trouble is the high number (in the hundreds) of patients who were admitted for non-Covid reasons and subsequently caught Covid within the NSW public hospital. NSW Health stopped identifiying the subsequent deaths, of people who caught Covid after they were admitted, months ago.

Due to lack of facilities (negative pressure areas) - Covid patients now mixed in with non-Covid patients in limited wards. In early November at Prince of Wales a large number of the Delta 'surge capacity' ICU bed constructed areas (using kitchen fans in the windows for the 'negative pressure' - which have since been thrown out) - were dismantled totally and the old use/floorplan rebuilt.

Fresh figures from the Critical Intelligence Unit of the NSW health department show that as of 9 January the share of staffed ICU beds occupied by Covid patients across the whole state stood at 33%, up from 19.9% on 2 January.

The average length of stay of admissions for the week ending 10 January was 4.5 days, up from 3.6 days for the previous week, the data shows. For those in ICU, the average stay was 4.7 days compared with six days a week earlier.

The decrease in ICU stays may be partially explained by the number of deaths averaging 11 per day over that week vs 3 the previous week. NSW Health states that deaths generally lag diagnosis by between 21 to 28 days - suggesting that these figures (w/e Jan 9, 2022) correspond to when cases averaged 1,300 positives per day.

The last time I checked, the official number of cases being 'monitored' by NSW Health under 'Hospital in the home' was just over 13,200 Covid-19 cases.

 

[drron]

@lovetravellingoz you obviously did not understand my post. When talking about continually wearing PPE I did say apart from respiratory infections. The example I gave with the 2 VRE wards meant that the staff in those 2 wards were in PPE for their whole shift and everyday that they worked in those wards. VRE once identified in a patient means they are very likely to be in isolation every time they are admitted. And working in those wards it was day in day out and little chance of the "pandemic" ending at all.
However the big difference is there was and still is no major scare campaign going on by politicians and media. You do see occasional press releases put out by authorities but rarely appearing in the media about the dangers of VRE. Then staff worked these wards sometimes for years without the mental anguish that we now see.

So again it has been our reaction to the pandemic that is responsible for the burn out we are seeing amongst staff. Plus the isolation requirements which I felt needed to be done with the delta outbreaks but do not think it is reasonable now with Omicron.

 

[exceladdict]

Not really, because the impact on quality of life and longer term life expectancy for younger people due to not being able to have elective surgery in a timely manager, not having access to routine preventative health checks (like breast screening, skin cancer checks etc), latent mental illness due to isolation will not show its full hand for some time yet.

I think we are in agreement, I don't think length of life can be the only measure of success. Quality is important too.

 

[OZDUCK]

Meanwhile in DPRWA

• two new local COVID-19 cases and
• 14 travel-related cases

Both of the local cases were already in quarantine but obviously there is Covid floating around somewhere after the "mystery case" yesterday.

The other news is the increased restrictions that will apply after 31 January to those who have refused to get vaccinated.

"WA has a first dose vaccination rate of 94.4 per cent for people aged 12 and over.

The double dose vaccination rate is 87 per cent, while the booster rate is 18.1 per cent for people aged 16 and over."

"But from January 31, the list of places non-vaccinated people aged 16 and above will be able to attend will shrink dramatically.

Proof of vaccination will be required to visit public and private hospitals, aged care facilities, all hospitality venues including restaurants, cafes, bars, pubs, clubs, nightclubs and dine-in fast food venues.

The unvaccinated will also be banned from museums, cinemas, the zoo, gyms, bottle shops, amusement parks, indoor entertainment venues and the entire Crown complex. They will be permitted to get take-away food and visit roadhouses and petrol stations."