Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

in NSW you don't have to wait for a clearance SMS and they are not always sending them. Once you have done 7 days ISO you are good to get on with life and exempt from further ISO and Test if exposed again within 4 weeks.

Close and casual contacts are not really a thing anymore anyway., unless you live together or work in a very narrow list of industries like aged care.

Reality must surely be that people will know whether they have a risk of contracting it from someone else by the length of their interactions. Family and likely close working relationships, and shared dinners, significant socialisation are the risks. Going shopping etc - extremely low yet they could get captured under SA's definition.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

in NSW you don't have to wait for a clearance SMS and they are not always sending them.

Neither do you do in Vic.

The SMS is not a clearance SMS to "release" people. It is just an informational one and helpful to people, and especially if people are unaware of salient points such as 4 weeks being the period when they are unlikely to get re-infected and that they do not need isolate if they are exposed to another positive case.

If they were unsure of how long to they are actually needed to isolate (remember the advice has changed many times) it also serves as a reminder to them if they were not aware, or were not just clear on it, that they are now free to exit isolation. So it is helpful that all receive the SMS.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld (168,012 active – 13,000 public hospital beds, 408 public/private ICU beds)
Certain elective surgery suspended/paused - announced 8/1

7/1 10,953 positives, 36k tests, 313 hospital, 14 ICU
8/1 11,174 positives, 33k tests, 349 hospital, 17 ICU
9/1 13,680 PCR+, 37k tests, 4320 RAT+, 380 hospital, 23 ICU
10/1 5867 PCR+, 21k tests, 3714 RAT+, 419 hospital, 21 ICU (*some non-reporting labs)
11/1 16,380 PCR+, 50k tests, 4186 RAT+, 502 hospital, 27 ICU (*includes non-reporting)
12/1 18,084 PCR+, 57k tests, 3985 RAT+, 525 hospital, 30 ICU
13/1 12,102 PCR+, 33k tests, 2812 RAT+, 530 hospital, 26 ICU
14/1 13,448 PCR+, 43k tests, 10,182 RAT+, 589 hospital, 41 ICU

 

[Lynda2475]

Given at least 4% of the population have a recent infection we could find out about whether re-infection is possible (eg got Omicron, get second Omicron; got Omicron, get Delta; got Delta, get Omicron) but with an exception from testing/isolation we probably will never find out.

The exemption from test is only for 4 weeks, so we will still find out if there are re-infections outside of that.

However, we only get stats on Omicron vs Delta (or other) if the person is hospitalised or has a PCR where they choose the do genome sequencing or observe certain traits on the PCR. Fewer PCRs test means less detail on variants.

 

[mviy]

There are so many cases that they can’t do genomic sequencing on all the tests. Genomic sequencing of hospital patients‘ results can help with appropriate treatment.

However the rates in hospitals provides a reasonable lagging estimate for what the split up may have been recently (It typically takes a while for people to get badly sick after catching COVID).

If we can estimate the likely hospitalisation rate for delta and omicron and see how many are in hospital then we can estimate the proportion of cases in the community that were delta and omicron recently.

It’s very clear that most cases are omicron now, but there’s still some delta in the community.

 

[drron]

Tasmania today.


10 in hospital for covid.

 

[Lynda2475]

The point s they no longer routinely do genome sequencing on PCRs unless the person is hospitalised, and cant sequence RATs. So they have good visibility of variants in ICU but not in general.

Then need to look at why the person is in hospital or ICU, are they there with covid or because of covid? We really need only be concerned with those there primarily because of covid.

 

[Quickstatus]

don't think length of life can be the only measure of success. Quality is important too.

Question:
The elderly who died from Covid - by how much was their life expectancy shortened by Covid?

Sorry I have no idea how it works

Private Hospitals abide by all Govt health directives as per their operating license

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH opinion piece:

Case numbers are alarming in NSW but there’s room for optimism

Hospitalisations are still growing but at a slower rate, and both bed and intensive care numbers are tracking just below best-case scenarios. But there are lessons we must learn from this outbreak to help us in the next wave.

www.smh.com.au

" most intensive care beds are occupied by patients infected with the Delta strain or patients who are unvaccinated"

"In Australia, about 1 per cent of diagnosed Omicron cases are hospitalised, compared to 3 per cent for Delta. Intensive care unit admission among the hospitalised is less common, and among those requiring intensive care, ventilator support is also less common."

 

[nutwood]

Reality must surely be that people will know whether they have a risk of contracting it from someone else by the length of their interactions. Family and likely close working relationships, and shared dinners, significant socialisation are the risks. Going shopping etc - extremely low yet they could get captured under SA's definition.

That's very true.
30 seconds in a lift, immediately after someone sneezing, would do it, but an afternoon at the beach might not.
I'd like to see more time spent on public education and less on impossible efforts to regulate a highly variable risk.

 

[andye]

The point s they no longer routinely do genome sequencing on PCRs unless the person is hospitalised, and cant sequence RATs. So they have good visibility of variants in ICU but not in general.

Then need to look at why the person is in hospital or ICU, are they there with covid or because of covid? We really need only be concerned with those there primarily because of covid.

It's a tricky one.

The due-to-Covid is a marker of severity of illness which is important but to some extent we have ICU/vent for that.

High numbers of people in hospital undoubtedly creates fear particularly in jurisdictions who have not seen much

Howver, the all-with-Covid is a reflection of the difficulties that isolation and PPE that put strain on the healthcare system (and staffing is quite tough at the moment in NSW and presumably VIC).
Someone Covid+ with a cough and mild oxygen requirements isn't really harder to look after than someone Covid+ with gallstones


And then there are the grey cases (some examples of fairly typical hospital admissions):
E.g
80 year old lady falls over and breaks her public ramus. Did she fall because her balance was upset by the viral infection? She will still be more difficult to transfer to rehab if positive.
Or
80 year old man with moderate heart failure, moderate renal failure who becomes breathless without classic Covid xray changes while Covid+. Due to the viral illness? or Would have happened anyway?

My inclination is to continue to report total numbers in hospital with some disclaimers. The journalists are keen on the shock-horror approach (for all sorts of reasons) so the disclaimers will probably get lost though

 

[drron]

Update. Tasmania has it's first case in ICU.

 

[Pushka]

Update. Tasmania has it's first case in ICU.

SA ICU dropped just now. Cases up over 5500 but suspect double dipping with PCR test results delay and self reported RAT while waiting.

 

[Lynda2475]

So Hillsong in a bit of trouble for breaching the singing and dancing rules, another category of individuals who feel restrictions don't apply to them.

 

[openseat]

So Hillsong in a bit of trouble for breaching the singing and dancing rules, another category of individuals who feel restrictions don't apply to them.

Yet 2 weeks ago people were singing and dancing for NYE.

 

[Lynda2475]

You need to comply with the restrictions in play at the time of the event. Hundreds of teenagers crammed inside a tent = indoors, mask wearing is required. Religious gatherings (church services, funerals) have been sites of significant spread in past, as physical distancing not observed.

 

[RAM]

Still failing to point out the pertinent information re the date range for these RATs and issue of double counting (of course that doesn't suit the OPs agenda). These numbers are over stated, its been widely reported.

From the official release:

14/1: Please note there may be some cases included in these numbers where people have reported positive RATs on multiple days and/or where people have also had a positive PCR test during the same reporting period.

** Of the 37,938 positive RAT results, 24,329 of these positive tests were from the previous seven days.

So 13,609 are more than a week old (as you can report back to 1/1); and only some of the 24,329 were for yesterday.

NSW Health could easily provide more accurate figures - simply publish the number of RATs lodged as taken & positive yesterday, and provide the breakup by day (as well as updated total-to-date figures for positive RATs for each day from Jan 1st to current.

That way much greater certainty of claims of 'peaking', 'peaking shortly' etc etc could be demonstrated.

Not showing more accurate figures, as you correctly point out, is being done for a reason.

 

[Pushka]

Yet 2 weeks ago people were singing and dancing for NYE.

These haven't been allowed in SA for months. No sympathy.

Post automatically merged: Jan 14, 2022

Not showing more accurate figures, as you correctly point out, is being done for a reason.

Well, I've heard that comment before but don't understand why anyone would want to overstate the conditions given that many would see it as a sign of public health failure.

 

[kamchatsky]

So Hillsong in a bit of trouble for breaching the singing and dancing rules, another category of individuals who feel restrictions don't apply to them.

Technically it is a religious service so it is exempt. But understood that the optics doesn't look good.

 

[Lynda2475]

It is in the interest of everyone not to create undue panic.

Technically it is a religious service so it is exempt. But understood that the optics doesn't look good.

Nope, it was a youth camp run by the church including a concert/entertainment. And religious services are not exempt from mask wearing indoors. Those conducting the religious service can be unmasked, but not the congregation attending.