Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[OATEK]

In my opinion it’s same same really, both are gatherings of people who believe in the existence of imaginary being/s.

My argument was that unmasked attendance at entertainment (a religious or other concert is entertainment for the purposes of restrictions) venue is against the rules, as is singing and dancing indoors (and I consider a tent indoors, its certainly not open air) unless you are the performer or it is a wedding reception.

Your spiritual beliefs will not protect you from covid, exercising some common sense in not singing/shouting/heavy breathing in close proximity to a bunch of strangers in an enclosed space just might.

Now its well known the PM has an affiliation with this oragnisation, and they may not have been fined but the behaviour was against the mask mandates and on the nose. Certainly doesnt demonstrate any care for fellow man which is supposed to be one of their ideals/beliefs.

It is clear from the reporting tonight that Hillsong has not been assessed as having broken the Covid rules. I think it is a bit like the Chauffer in Sydney that was not required to wear a mask. It seems to me the orders were at fault in both cases.

 

[Quickstatus]

spiritual beliefs will not protect you from covid,

No one says that it does, not even the religious.

Just as the JW vehemently do not want blood transfusions even if they will die. It’s a religious objection based on strongly held beliefs.

Increasingly the data says the unvaccinated are no more dangerous to the public than the vaccinated. They are just more prone to ICU.

But take the example of the obese. We have one in ICU with Covid and morbid obesity. Currently we slam the unvaccinated but don’t do the same to the people who are obese?. Smoking is legal but yet the smokers consume significant health resources. Long Covid?. My longest admission to hospital for a smoking related disease was 9 months.
Perspective…

 

[nutwood]

In

No one says that it does, not even the religious.

Just as the JW vehemently do not want blood transfusions even if they will die. It’s a religious objection based on strongly held beliefs.

Increasingly the data says the unvaccinated are no more dangerous to the public than the vaccinated. They are just more prone to ICU.

But take the example of the obese. We have one in ICU with Covid and morbid obesity. Currently we slam the unvaccinated but don’t do the same to the people who are obese?. Smoking is legal but yet the smokers consume significant health resources. Long Covid?. My longest admission to hospital for a smoking related disease was 9 months.
Perspective…

Interesting point. I would think the distinction is that obesity, also smoking, is something that sneaks up on people, as opposed to anti vax, which is a clear cut choice.
Many obese people would prefer not to be. Given an anti obesity button to push, they'd push it.

 

[Lynda2475]

No one says that it does, not even the religious.

Unfortnately this isnt entirely true, whilst many religious people are pro vaccine there are nutbars who deny the science of vaccines and trust their god. Much of the mis information re vaccines has been distributed by faithful types. It has been a real problem in some communities (only need to look at some aborginal communities and the souther US states).

They are just more prone to ICU

Which is what I have stated numerous times.

People are actively decide to not get vaccinated (its free so no economic argument) and smokers choose to take up a knowingly harmful habit.

But very few obese people actively set out to put on weight, its not the same at all. Its true a minority of obese people care not for their health, but you cant make that a blanket statement without knowing the reasons for their weight gain. Just because you may find it easy to stay thin, doesnt mean those that dont arent eating well. There are believe it or not fit fat people and very unhealthy slim people.

Majority of overweight people would happily get a shot or take a pill if it would help them shed the excess kilos. a good portion of overwight people at any given point in time are actively trying to lose excess weight, but those who refuse to get vaccinated are doing nothing to help their situation.

 

[Quickstatus]

there are nutbars who deny the science of vaccines and trust their "god.

Isn’t that the same as JW who refuse blood or blood transfusion - they deny the science of transfusion medicine and trust their god.

Despite my personal beliefs that the JW are wrong I still treat them with empathy and respect. I think it is a dangerous road to go down when we start attacking religion or people’s strongly held beliefs

 

[Lynda2475]

Isn’t that the same as JW who refuse blood or blood transfusion - they deny the science of transfusion medicine and trust their god.

In my opinion this is religious stupidity. Conviction is pointless when the thing you believe has been proven to be bs.

 

[Quickstatus]

conviction is pointless

But it remains a deeply held belief and in most circumstances should be respected. It may be pointless but that is not the point.

Section 2.4 page 8 of the AHPRA good medical practice code basically codifies this

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Of course you are applying a timeframe of your choosing

My timeframe? It is the last accurate report I have seen. Please feel free to post a more recent report as I would welcome it.

to the article, which I acknowleged was an opinion piece when I posted it. And as usual you completly missed the point about there being cause for optimism, but that doesnt suit your doom and gloom we have no idea how bad it is narrative.

Personally I would be more optimistic if Omicron was dominating in ICU rather than Delta and that was what has caused the large recent rise in covid cases in ICU in NSW.. If Delta is on the rise I would be more pessimistic about adverse health outcomes. So personally I thought the Dr Chant report was good news.

What portion of the Omicron ICU were not fully vaccinated (i.e. un vacicnated, 1 dose or 2 doses but over due for their booster)? In last 4 weeks 33% are confirmed Delta,

No. You have misunderstood what Kerry was quoted as saying:
In the week of the 29 December to the 4 January we have seen that shift to 33 per Delta and 67 per cent Omicron." is in one week it was 67% and had dramatically increased over 4 weeks.

so if 26% of the Omicron cases are unvaccinated (18/67%) the assertion that majority are Delta or unvaccinated holds true. Noting Dr Chant did not break the ICU omincron cases down by vaccination status.

So you actually have no data, just speculation.

 

[Quickstatus]

would be more optimistic if Omicron was dominating in ICU rather than Delta

I’m the opposite.
Less Omicron in ICU is much better.
I see Omicron as the big oopportunity to end the pandemic. You get the virus with VB (Vax + booster) = more immunity with less risk than Delta of getting sick in meantime.

 

[oz_mark]

WA Health has reported one new local COVID-19 case and eight travel-related cases

The one case is a child, a household contact of a previous case

The mystery case from Wednesday has also been linked back to a traveller.

 

[jakeseven7]

I wonder how much longer we have to endure daily case reports…. I wonder when they will be phased out, couldn’t we move to weekly soon

 

[Quickstatus]

Daily case reports serves no purpose other than adding to anxiety and hysteria

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’m the opposite.
Less Omicron in ICU is much better.
I see Omicron as the big oopportunity to end the pandemic. You get the virus with VB (Vax + booster) = more immunity with less risk than Delta of getting sick in meantime.

More Delta in ICU at present would mean that Delta is surging in NSW and especially as it was at a really low level. If so that would most likely lead to many more really bad health outcomes.

Whereas more Omicron in ICU would mean that Omicron is getting the upper hand, rather than both Omicron and Delta being big spreaders.

 

[Quickstatus]

Delta in ICU at present would mean that Delta is surging in NSW

I think words like “surging” are not helpful. Look at the IC U numbers compared with the hospitalisation numbers and compare with September

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think words like “surging” are not helpful. Look at the IC U numbers compared with the hospitalisation numbers and compare with September

You reinforce my logic.

Back in Sept fewer hospitalisations were generating greater ICU numbers.

The last 2 weeks has seen % wise a large increase in ICU in NSW. Now given the recent growth in Omicron cases, if Omicron is generating the majority of that by the combination of Omicron ICU cases of the vaccinated and by Omicron carriers infecting the unvaccinated then those numbers to me are not that surprising based on what you can see in other countries, and given that Omicron cases have really jumped over the last three weeks in NSW.

But if it was rather Delta that was more dominant in ICU and given that Delta cases were so few not that long ago that would tend to mean that Delta cases/infections must yes have surged recently in order to have caused that increase.

Note that the data reported by Dr Chant for 29 Dec -Jan 4 had Omicron twice as prevalent as Delta in ICU for that week. So if since Jan 4 Delta has turned that around to now be dominant over Omicron given that ICU cases have risen 70% that would also mean that Delta would need to have have surged.

So ICU could have just jumped up to mainly increased Delta Cases in the ICU on the back of a rise of Delta cases, or it could be going up due to sheer volume of Omicron creating Omicron ICU cases (less virulent, but way more cases) combined with more unvaccinated infected by Omicron carriers.

I would tend to think the latter is more likely than the former. Once NSW Health releases the next report on ICU variant % we will know.


Personally I would prefer that Omicron is displacing Delta, rather than have both variants on the rise.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SA (34,428 active – 4500 public hospital beds, 161 public/private ICU beds)
Certain elective surgery suspended/paused - announced 28/12

7/1 3707 positives, 20k tests, 144 hospital, 16 ICU
8/1 4274 positives, 24k tests, 164 hospital, 16 ICU
9/1 4506 positives, 23k tests, 176 hospital, 18 ICU
10/1 4024 positives, 21k tests, 188 hospital, 21 ICU
11/1 2921 positives, 18k tests, 211 hospital, 22 ICU
12/1 2978 PCR+, 19k tests, 737 RAT+, 190 hospital, 27 ICU
13/1 3669 positives, 20k tests, 225 hospital, 26 ICU
14/1 5679 positives, 24k tests, 246 hospital, 20 ICU

ACT (4382 active – 1200 public hospital beds, 37 public/private ICU beds)
Certain elective surgery suspended/paused at 1 hospital - announced 7/1

7/1 1246 positives, 4.5k tests, 24 hospital, 3 ICU
8/1 1305 positives, 4.3k tests, 24 hospital, 5 ICU
9/1 1039 positives, 3.1k tests, 27 hospital, 4 ICU
10/1 938 positives, 5.2k tests, 25 hospital, 4 ICU
11/1 1508 positives, 5.9k tests, 28 hospital, 4 ICU
12/1 1078 positives, 3.6k tests, 23 hospital, 3 ICU
13/1 1020 positives, 4.7k tests, 24 hospital, 3 ICU *RAT+ will be reported from Friday
14/1 885 PCR+, 3.8k tests, 240/1418 RAT+, 27 hospital, 3 ICU

NT (3300 active – 1000 public hospital beds, 20 public/private ICU beds)

7/1 412 positives, 2.8k tests, 19 hospital, 2 ICU
8/1 594 positives, 3.0k tests, 17 hospital, 1 ICU
9/1 481 positives, 2.5k tests, 24 hospital, 1 ICU
10/1 403 positives, 2.5k tests, 26 hospital, 1/2 ICU
11/1 594 positives, 2.2k tests, 32 hospital, 1 ICU
12/1 352 positives, 2.4k tests, 28 hospital, 1/2 ICU
13/1 550 positives, 2.5k tests, 24 hospital, 1 ICU
14/1 546 positives, 1.6k tests, 27 hospital, 1 ICU

WA (118 active – 5900 public hospital beds, 179 public/private ICU bed)

7/1 0 local positives, 4.6k tests
8/1 1 local positive, 4.8k tests
9/1 1 local positive, 3.4k tests
10/1 3 local positives, 6.1k tests
11/1 4 local positives, 4.6k tests
12/1 2 local positives – 1 unknown source, 4.3k tests
13/1 2 local positives, 4.5k tests
14/1 1 local positive (Delta backpacker 23, Omicron HQ leak 4), 3.7k tests

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW Health could easily provide more accurate figures - simply publish the number of RATs lodged as taken & positive yesterday, and provide the breakup by day (as well as updated total-to-date figures for positive RATs for each day from Jan 1st to current.

That way much greater certainty of claims of 'peaking', 'peaking shortly' etc etc could be demonstrated.

Not showing more accurate figures, as you correctly point out, is being done for a reason.

These haven't been allowed in SA for months. No sympathy.

Post automatically merged: Jan 14, 2022

Well, I've heard that comment before but don't understand why anyone would want to overstate the conditions given that many would see it as a sign of public health failure.

Perhaps NSW Health is just unconcerned. Two days of RAT+ dump, best info so far is how many of the day’s dump were for the last 7 days.

Vic, Tas, ACT and NT were able to provide current day (last 24 hour) RAT+ figure on at least 1 occasion. I don’t think Qld or SA have managed to yet (they only have reported those lodged in the last 24 hour, not those that tested RAT+ in the last 24 hour)

Only Tas does so consistently it appears.

NT has the figure but didn’t report it initially as they just reported all positives. Since reopening borders in the week before Christmas, RATs were used for interstate travel to remote tourist areas ie Uluru where the nearest PCR clinic was 5 hours drive away in Alice Springs which isn’t really practical for the typical 3-4 days holidaying to the Big Rock. As a reader of their media update, NT only started reporting the RAT figure recently because other jurisdictions started to.

Maybe in one weeks time when the RAT+ backlog has been mostly reported, health departments can start reporting more timely RAT+ figures but there will always be a segment of the population that self-report ‘late’ (more than 24 hours after the RAT+ was conducted)

 

[OATEK]

....

I would tend to think the latter is more likely than the former. Once NSW Health releases the next report on ICU variant % we will know.

Personally I would prefer that Omicron is displacing Delta, rather than have both variants on the rise.

Given the flood of RAT results, the increase in ICU contrasts even more with the Delta wave as a % of cases.

 

[jakeseven7]

VIC is reportedly making the sensible decision to cease PCR testing in its covid respiratory clinics, moving to RATs. Very good move.

 

[Must...Fly!]

VIC is reportedly making the sensible decision to cease PCR testing in its covid respiratory clinics, moving to RATs. Very good move.

It's only a good move to transition away if international arrivals only undergo RAT before departure (if any). Otherwise how do you prove a previous infection without previous PCR proof?