Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

It's only a good move to transition away if international arrivals only undergo RAT before departure (if any). Otherwise how do you prove a previous infection without previous PCR proof?

Pay for the service where needed at a private lab?

 

[jakeseven7]

It's only a good move to transition away if international arrivals only undergo RAT before departure (if any). Otherwise how do you prove a previous infection without previous PCR proof?

They wouldn’t be eligible to visit respiratory clinics anyway, that’s not what they are for.
PCR can be obtained at many other places.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW health Twitter reports

27,020 PCR+, 21,748 RAT+ (15,925 in the past 7 days), 2576 hospital, 193 ICU

With the usual note RAT+ numbers may include people self-reporting multiple days of RAT+ and/or with a recent positive PCR+ test

 

[Lynda2475]

My timeframe?

You took Dr Chants quote about a specific timeframe last 4 weeks and applied it to a quote from the opinion piece (noting this isnt my artcle but the authors) which didnt specify a time frame other than this current wave.

More Delta in ICU at present would mean that Delta is surging in NSW

Lol no it doesnt, it just means as it has all along that Delta is deadlier.

Looking at the waves since vaccination started, death rate (and in rae numbers) in second half of 2021 higher in Vic, why? In part because they were still having much more delta in Dec whilst Omicron was dominating over all infections in NSW.

Reading the surveillance reports you would see omicron is dominating younger age group who are more socially active, doesnt mean there isnt still some circulating delta impacting those with weaker immune systems.

Positives are significantly higher than peak of Delta in NSW last year, yet hospital and ICU admissions as a percentage of positive tests is many magnitudes lower. Delta hasnt got less deadly its just become less prevalent which is good.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Vic Dept Health twitter sending link to media release (not the usual 1-pic ‘at a glance’ panel)

19,396 PCR+, 62k tests,15,440 RAT+ (about 56% from 13/1), 976 hospital, 79 ICU active and 33 ICU cleared, which adds to 112.

(For their own reasons, Vic Dept Health were adding ICU active and cleared in their 9am (1-pic ‘at a glance’) releases for the past week)

Edit: was looking at this and perhaps I saw an erroneous twitter post highlighting yesterday’s figures. Different info and panel on Twitter. Sorry for any confusion.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

You took Dr Chants quote about a specific timeframe last 4 weeks and applied it to a quote from the opinion piece (noting this isnt my artcle but the authors) which didnt specify a time frame other than this current wave.

Interesting that you wish to give greater weight to a comment with no data and with no timeframe, and not actual data quoted from a reliable source.

Dr Chant quoted two specific weeks and specific data which showed a trend.

Whereas the article we can both agree gave no specific data at all, no source and was based on another article that was even vaguer.

Lol no it doesnt, it just means as it has all along that Delta is deadlier.

We were discussing ICU cases and not deaths.

Yes we know that Delta is more virulent, but admission will be driven by both virulence and numbers infected. A less virulent variant can create more cases/hospitalisations/ICU admissions in number if it is contagious enough which it would seem that Omicron is. The % admitted of total cases will be lower though.

Given Vic entered this period with a lot more Delta cases than NSW how do you explain ICU numbers in NSW going from a lot less in NSW than in Vic to a lot more if Delta is as you claim driving it?

Also how has Delta acted so in NSW in terms of the ICU if it is as you claim now less prevalent?

Delta hasnt got less deadly its just become less prevalent which is good.

Yes less % Delta would be good. Which was my point.

If Delta is less prevalent, how has it according to you caused NSW ICU Delta cases to grow like you claim they have? And why in Vic where there is likely a higher % Delta proportion has the ICU increase been much less?

The data so far released by NSW Health, and Vic DHHS, would suggest to me that the reason is due to Omicron. Or at least it was for the last week that we have actual data for.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Tas Dept Health Facebook report

255 PCR+, 2.1k tests, 884 RAT+, 10/22 hospital being treated for covid symptoms, 1 ICU, 7108 active (my note down 331)

 

[Lynda2475]

Lol as usual claiming ive said things i have not and missing the point entirely. I did not write the opinion piece and it actually stated unvaccinated plus delta, yet you keep ignoring those ICU cases which arent fully vaccinated.

how has it according to you caused NSW ICU Delta cases to grow like you claim they have

Lol because that isnt what i said. I actually stated ICU covid admissions have not grown as a percentage of total positives at all, they are much much lower and in NSW are also still lower than Delta peak in real numbers.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

ABC blog

ACT hospitalisations have risen to 30​

Canberra hospitals are now treating 30 COVID-19 patients, the highest number of the pandemic.

Three of those are in intensive care and all require ventilation.

The ACT recorded 1,320 new known cases of the disease in the past 24 hours, 629 diagnosed from PCR tests and 691 from at-home tests.

Only 3,316 people in Canberra are known to be infected at present, about half the number reported four days ago.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

ABC blog

Queensland has recorded 6 deaths​

One of those was a person in their 20s.
The Chief Health Officer will provide further details throughout the COVID update.
There are 649 people in hospital, including 46 in ICUs.
The state recorded 19,709 new cases overnight, including 6,087 from RATs.
8.54 per cent of children aged 5-11 have had their first dose.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From the ABC on today's hopitilastions in Victoria:

Victoria's COVID-19 hospitalisations have risen to 1,054, up from 976 reported on Friday, and the state has recorded a further 23 deaths. ​

​

Of the patients in hospital, there are 115 in intensive care, 30 of whom are on ventilators.​

​

Victoria's COVID-19 commander Jeroen Weimar said the numbers highlighted how transmissible Omicron was and also how avoidable. ​

​

"Less than half the people, 47 per cent of the people in the hospital were not fully vaccinated," he said. ​

​

"Three-quarters of those in ICU, 74 per cent, were not fully vaccinated."​

​

and notably

Mr Weimar added that there is "nobody in ICU who has had a third dose".​

 

[RAM]

Wonderful statistics trick - comparing 'stocks with flows'. Even better when you only use 'net flows'.

Similarly NSW Health does not provide the number of new admissions to hospital each day - they provide a 'net figure' which represents:

# new cases admitted

less # of deaths (in hospital & in 'hospital in the home)
less # of cases moved to HITH
less # of cases fully discharged

Comparing the net additions to hospitalisations is close to meaningless.

The same goes for ICU admissions and those on ventilators.

For example yesterday's ICU admissons stood as 184 with 119 deaths over the week (less those aged 90 or over), an unknown number who thankfully have improved sufficiently to be taken out of ICU.

Taking the number announced on Thursday of 29 deaths, 5 were in their 90s, of the remainder none were said to have died at home. The 'net' ICU number only increased by 2 from the day before.

The minimum number of new admissions to ICU was 2 + 24 = 26. Taking into account the 'typical stay' in ICU of (conservatively) 5 days then around 1/5th of the previous day's figure is around 36 people would have gone from ICU. For that day's reporting then 24, of the likely 36, died and 12 moved to other wards.

Total likely new admissions to ICU = 2 + 24 + 12 = 38 people, or roughly 21% of the total number

SMH opinion piece:

Case numbers are alarming in NSW but there’s room for optimism

Hospitalisations are still growing but at a slower rate, and both bed and intensive care numbers are tracking just below best-case scenarios. But there are lessons we must learn from this outbreak to help us in the next wave.

www.smh.com.au

" most intensive care beds are occupied by patients infected with the Delta strain or patients who are unvaccinated"

"In Australia, about 1 per cent of diagnosed Omicron cases are hospitalised, compared to 3 per cent for Delta. Intensive care unit admission among the hospitalised is less common, and among those requiring intensive care, ventilator support is also less common."

Given the around fifteen fold increase in weekly deaths (8 in week ending Dec 25th vs 126 last seven days, or 119 adjusted for 7 older cases) and that in NSW people aged 90 years or older with Covid-19 are refused admission into ICU let alone ventilated - then any comparisons for ICU, ventilator are equally understating the reality given the high rate of 90+ year olds who have died in the last week and other weeks.

NSW Health states (in its reports) that there is typically a ten to fourteen day lag between initial diagnosis & hospitalisation and a 21 to 28 day lag from diagnosis to deaths. Using the average daily case figures from 21 to 28 days ago for the 29 deaths announced Jan 14 - yields a mortality rate of 29 / 3,671 = 0.8%.

So as not to be accused of cherry picking. Doing the sums for the 7 day Moving Avg of daily deaths (adjusted) = 17 / day over the last 7 days and the similar MA of the rolling 7 day case # MA, yields a mortality rate of 0.7% which coincidentally (?) rounds to be about 1 per cent of Omicron cases detected over the relevant periods.

The last 7 days mortality rate is higher (and has skewed the overall rate higher) than the mortality rate for Covid-19 from the start in Australia. Let's hope this trend in mortality rates is short lived.

461,003 resolved cases and 2,578 deaths = 0.6%. Taking out the 4 week's figures see the pre-'Let it rip' mortality rate = 0.5%.

Avg ICU end of day
w/e 14 Jan = 167 vs w/e 7 jan = 107, increase of 56%

Avg Deaths
w/e 14 Jan = 17 vs w/e 7 Jan = 5, increase of > 300%

 

[RAM]

Of course you are applying a timeframe of your choosing to the article, which I acknowleged was an opinion piece when I posted it. And as usual you completly missed the point about there being cause for optimism, but that doesnt suit your doom and gloom we have no idea how bad it is narrative.

When somebody posts factually correct information that happens to show a situation that is not positive - that is just as accurate as somebody else posting information that provides 'good news'.

Reality is not all goods news and constantly attacking people who post a true snapshot neither changes the facts nor improves the outcome - it is merely propaganda.

What portion of the Omicron ICU were not fully vaccinated (i.e. un vacicnated, 1 dose or 2 doses but over due for their booster)? In last 4 weeks 33% are confirmed Delta, so if 26% of the Omicron cases are unvaccinated (18/67%) the assertion that majority are Delta or unvaccinated holds true. Noting Dr Chant did not break the ICU omincron cases down by vaccination status.

Given that NSW Health has now withdrawn over 37 different data sets from their reporting and from public access - I can with 100% accuracy state that every one of those datasets showed a deteriorating situation that went against the NSW Govt's narrative.

Meanwhile the 'propaganda war' continues. Change defintions to the point of being meaningless such as 'Close contact'.

With Delta, it was soon acknowledged that a person could catch it simply by walking past (at a gap approaching 2m in Bondi Westfield David Jones) an infected unmasked person. Catch it from literally one or 2 seconds exposure. So how exactly (unexplained) was it decided that a 4 hour interaction (not the health advice BTW) was required for Omicron given its reported 15 to 17 times as contagious as Delta?

However, with the equivalent to the 2019 bushfires situation taking out hundreds of thousands of people who are 'close contacts' under the definition still used worldwide - demonstrated that there was actually no plan in existence to deal with a surge in Covid-19 cases. As the peak body of the Aged Care Sector declared today - there is no surge workforce available to then despite the Federal Govt saying there would be.

Total assistance to date (from the Federal Govt) saw over 2,000 Aged Care facilities yet to received a single RAT as of Jan 7th yet on August 15th, 2021 Greg Hunt announced that every Aged Care facility would start receiving them within weeks - now 5 months later, the booster rollout began in November yet as of Friday over 1,000 Aged Care facilities are yet to be visited despite many of them now being 8 months since the last vaccination. It was a close run thing that more Aged Care facilites in NSW would have outbreaks than would have received their boosters, allowing for the 2 to 3 week lag in 'effectiveness' being achieved there were more outbreaks. Meanwhile State Govt run Aged Care facilities in Victoria had received their booster shot before Xmas.

Last week the Federal Govt lauded the '60,000 shifts' provided by the 'surge workforce'.and assistance provided to the sector from a surge workforce - less than 1 shift a week per facility when overall, facilities had lost over 80 shifts/week.

 

[RAM]

It is clear from the reporting tonight that Hillsong has not been assessed as having broken the Covid rules. I think it is a bit like the Chauffer in Sydney that was not required to wear a mask. It seems to me the orders were at fault in both cases.

The limo driver in Sydney, according to the NSW Police investigation, was shown in CCTV footage to have been wearing a mask before, during & after arrival at Sydney Airport and while in transit to, arrival, unloading and departure from the hotel he took the FedEx aircrew to.

BTW - NSW Health, very quietly aka no public release, ruled out the limo driver catching Covid from the aircrew as they tested negative. NSW Health reclassified him as case #2 and made his wife the index case. Brad Hazzard confirmed this after being asked by 5 different journalists at a Friday briefing. He kept dodging the question until he finally answered 'That's correct' and promptly shut down the 11am media briefing.

Perhaps the main difference being that one party had actually done nothing wrong & was not connected to the PM nor senior NSW Govt members while one was.

 

[RAM]

Perhaps NSW Health is just unconcerned. Two days of RAT+ dump, best info so far is how many of the day’s dump were for the last 7 days.

Vic, Tas, ACT and NT were able to provide current day (last 24 hour) RAT+ figure on at least 1 occasion. I don’t think Qld or SA have managed to yet (they only have reported those lodged in the last 24 hour, not those that tested RAT+ in the last 24 hour)

Easier to spruik a particular narrative if the facts are not available to refute it - such as cases peaking shortly. NSW Health has now removed nearly 40 different data sets from public domain. Less obvious though if they don't get to the public domain at all.

The daily breakup exists in several different internal reports.

Similar with the PCR test results which are announced at the daily briefings as of the 'PCR tests yesterday' yet can relate to tests dating back more than 7 days (in the case of NSW not at least some Vic private pathology labs). Due to the tens of thousands of daily tests still being flown once a day to other States to process 'when possible' - the current PCR figure each day is more a moving average of the past week at best.

The daily variation in PCR test results (processed) announced over the last week - 84k, 71k, 134k, 88k, 109k provides an indication into the backlog clearing when capacity presents itself. Or does anybody believe that the number of people who tried to find an open PCR testing clinic in NSW really jumped over 60k one day and fell nearly 50k the day after?

 

[Lynda2475]

in NSW people aged 90 years or older with Covid-19 are refused admission into ICU let alone ventilated

LOL. This is not an official policy. There have been very cases in latest wave in the 90+ cohort, and many people in that cohort choose not to be admitted and have DNR orders in their living wills which prevent ventilation.

But the official source NSW Health Weekly surveillance report shows at least 1 90+ in ICU with Covid:



Obviously when demand exceeds capacity, doctors will assess which patients have the best likelihood of recovery given ICU intervention when deciding who get a bed, but this is never done soley on the basis of age.

So much nonsense in your post, actual deaths for all age cohorts are reported (the delay is only for those who died at home and were diagnosed post mortem) and an reduction in ICU can mean the patient has been moved to a non ICU bed, doesnt not equate to death or a conspriacy as you are implying.

NSW provide more detail to the public in their weekly survellance reports tahn any other state or territory does.

 

[Lynda2475]

Given the around fifteen fold increase in weekly deaths

Case Fatality Rate has not increased 15 fold in any age cohort. You are comparing raw numbers of deaths, its the case numbers that have rapidly increased and that is mostly in the under 40s.

Further the CFR for 90+ has decreased from 38% to 22% in the last 12 months due to vaccines, again I point you to official data:

 

[oz_mark]

WA Health has reported two new local COVID-19 cases and seven travel-related cases

Both cases are believed to have been infectious in the community.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

WA Health has reported two new local COVID-19 cases and seven travel-related cases

Both cases are believed to have been infectious in the community.

I’m guessing none linked to one of the two clusters - Delta backpacker or Omicron Hyatt HQ leak.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

When somebody posts factually correct information that happens to show a situation that is not positive - that is just as accurate as somebody else posting information that provides 'good news'.

Reality is not all goods news and constantly attacking people who post a true snapshot neither changes the facts nor improves the outcome - it is merely propaganda.

I think this unfortunately happens far too often on this particular thread, but does happen to a lesser extent on other threads.



On getting recent the vaccination status of new hospital and ICU, I used the relevant last 2 NSW weekly surveillance and compare the data. Effectively use the most recent week’s data and ‘deducting’ the previous week’s data.

The fully vaxxed percentage has steadily been increasing but hasn’t reached 90% consistently, so the argument that vaccinations work still holds true. (I did the comparison 2 or 3 times on pre-Xmas figures in response to a query on this thread)

Data on this week’s Omicron data for hospital and ICU might be able to be extracted using this method if you can find the right table.