Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[OATEK]

VIC: 'This variant gets past two doses'​

Let's cross to Victoria, where Premier Daniel Andrews is breaking down some of the booster figures.

As it stands, 23 per cent of those aged over 18 have received three doses.

Mr Andrews says it's not a case of "two doses and a bonus".

"Because of this variant, it really is three doses as an absolute core requirement to stop transmission," he says.

"We know that two doses has been very successful in preventing, in the vast majority of cases, really significant illness, people getting desperately unwell.

"But the transmission as we can see from case numbers... this variant gets past two doses, but there is significant benefit and a reduction in the number of cases... once you've had a third dose."

- courtesy abc blog

This seems to be an area of discussion that is not getting enough airtime. Yes, 3 shots will give greater protection, but does everyone really need it, or only certain vulnerable populations.

 

[Must...Fly!]

VIC: 'This variant gets past two doses'​

Let's cross to Victoria, where Premier Daniel Andrews is breaking down some of the booster figures.

As it stands, 23 per cent of those aged over 18 have received three doses.

Mr Andrews says it's not a case of "two doses and a bonus".

"Because of this variant, it really is three doses as an absolute core requirement to stop transmission," he says.

"We know that two doses has been very successful in preventing, in the vast majority of cases, really significant illness, people getting desperately unwell.

"But the transmission as we can see from case numbers... this variant gets past two doses, but there is significant benefit and a reduction in the number of cases... once you've had a third dose."

- courtesy abc blog

Scare scare scare

I preferred when the premier was on holidays

Where is the evidence that otherwise healthy people under 60 or 70 materially benefit from a third dose of vaccine?

 

[Pushka]

VIC: 'This variant gets past two doses'​

Let's cross to Victoria, where Premier Daniel Andrews is breaking down some of the booster figures.

As it stands, 23 per cent of those aged over 18 have received three doses.

Mr Andrews says it's not a case of "two doses and a bonus".

"Because of this variant, it really is three doses as an absolute core requirement to stop transmission," he says.

"We know that two doses has been very successful in preventing, in the vast majority of cases, really significant illness, people getting desperately unwell.

"But the transmission as we can see from case numbers... this variant gets past two doses, but there is significant benefit and a reduction in the number of cases... once you've had a third dose."

- courtesy abc blog

This variant gets past three doses, of Pfizer and AZ. Given the family members were in their thirties and were quite unwell then I wonder if they had not had their booster how they would have fared. And then the toddler - well again after a few days of grizzles. Interestingly symptoms were worse at night for all.

 

[jakeseven7]

This variant gets past three doses, of Pfizer and AZ. Given the family members were in their thirties and were quite unwell then I wonder if they had not had their booster how they would have fared. And then the toddler - well again after a few days of grizzles. Interestingly symptoms were worse at night for all.

There’s just so so many variables though it’s so so hard to compare, how much viral load you were exposed to etc.

We had an interesting case of a family of four who had an infected person in the car with them for 6 hour road trip.

Person 1 - infected/source (1 dose Pfizer)
Person 2 - not infected (AZ, AZ, Moderna)
Person 3 - not infected (Pfizer, Pfizer, AZ)
Person 4 - infected from Person 1 (Pfizer, Pfizer)

I guess my point is that the above proves everything but nothing because there’s just so so many variables involved. I could make an argument from many angles.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Two people have died in the ACT​

Update: The ACT has recorded two deaths - a man in his 50s and a man in his 90s with COVID-19.

Canberra hospitals are currently treating 41 COVID-19 patients, the highest number of the pandemic.

Three of those are in intensive care and two require ventilation.

The ACT recorded 1,316 new known cases of the disease in the past 24 hours, 716 diagnosed from PCR tests and 600 from at-home tests.

There are 3,257 active cases.

Courtesy ABC blog

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

From ABC blog

What underlying health conditions? As someone who is immunocompromised it would be very helpful to know what these underlying health conditions are that vaccinated people who are dying of COVID have. I understand the privacy issues but a general overview that is more specific than “underlying health conditions” would be very helpful and possibly life saving for those of us who are most at risk
-Ellie

Morning, Ellie - really good question, and I'm sorry if this has been a pretty stressful time for you.

People with high risk factors include:

• Those who have had an organ transplant and are on immune suppressive therapy
• Those who have had a bone marrow transplant in the past two years
• Those who are on immune-suppressive therapy for graft versus host disease
• Those who have had blood cancer in the past five years, including leukaemia, lymphoma or myelodysplastic syndrome
• Those who are having chemotherapy or radiotherapy

Moderate risk factors include:

• Chronic kidney failure
• Heart disease (coronary heart disease or failure)
• Chronic lung disease, excluding mild or moderate asthma
• Cancer in the past 12 months
• Diabetes
• Severe obesity
• Chronic liver disease
• Some neurological conditions such as stroke or dementia
• Some chronic inflammatory conditions and treatments
• Other primary or acquired immunodeficiency
• Poorly controlled hypertension

As the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) notes, pregnancy and severe mental health conditions, including bipolar disorder, can also increase the risk of severe COVID-19.

Those on the NDIS and/or living with "significant disability requiring frequent assistance with activities of daily living" are at greater risk too.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Abc blog

SA has recorded 2 deaths​

They were a man in his 70s and a man in his 80s.

There are 220 people in hospital, including 26 in ICUs.

Six people require ventilation.

The state recorded 3,450 new COVID cases from 24,120 tests (17,280 PCR tests and 6,840 rapid antigen tests).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

ABC blog

And that's a wrap on the COVID update out of SA​

If you tuned out along the way, here's a bit of what you missed:

• A man in his 70s and a man in his 80s have both died with COVID-19 in South Australia
• Hospitalisations have dropped by 16 to 220, while 26 patients remain in ICU and there are six on ventilators
• There were 3,450 cases reported today, down from 4,349 yesterday
• The Adelaide Showground mass vaccination hub has been expanded to accept another 8,000 appointments per week, with the Jubilee Pavilion now being used for Moderna boosters

 

[straitman]

[mod hat]

A few members here need to remember that posting here is not a competition and is not about being more right than the next person. Any more sniping and posts may/will just disappear without explanation.

it really isn't that hard to remain civil so please abide by the forum TOS and go and reread them if necessary.

[/mod hat]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Where is the evidence that otherwise healthy people under 60 or 70 materially benefit from a third dose of vaccine?

While comprehensive reporting is yes lacking, Weimar in Vic was reported by the ABC yesterday as saying:

"Less than half the people, 47 per cent of the people in the hospital were not fully vaccinated," he said. ​

​

"Three-quarters of those in ICU, 74 per cent, were not fully vaccinated."​

​

and notably

Mr Weimar added that there is "nobody in ICU who has had a third dose".​

So one would assume that they are tracking vaccination status (ie no, single or triple dosed, even if they do not make public all the data.

Mind you as the % of people who have had three doses is only just over 20% now that data at least in Vic would be quite limited.

 

[andye]

From ABC blog

What underlying health conditions? As someone who is immunocompromised it would be very helpful to know what these underlying health conditions are that vaccinated people who are dying of COVID have. I understand the privacy issues but a general overview that is more specific than “underlying health conditions” would be very helpful and possibly life saving for those of us who are most at risk
-Ellie

Morning, Ellie - really good question, and I'm sorry if this has been a pretty stressful time for you.

People with high risk factors include:

• Those who have had an organ transplant and are on immune suppressive therapy
• Those who have had a bone marrow transplant in the past two years
• Those who are on immune-suppressive therapy for graft versus host disease
• Those who have had blood cancer in the past five years, including leukaemia, lymphoma or myelodysplastic syndrome
• Those who are having chemotherapy or radiotherapy

Moderate risk factors include:

• Chronic kidney failure
• Heart disease (coronary heart disease or failure)
• Chronic lung disease, excluding mild or moderate asthma
• Cancer in the past 12 months
• Diabetes
• Severe obesity
• Chronic liver disease
• Some neurological conditions such as stroke or dementia
• Some chronic inflammatory conditions and treatments
• Other primary or acquired immunodeficiency
• Poorly controlled hypertension

As the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) notes, pregnancy and severe mental health conditions, including bipolar disorder, can also increase the risk of severe COVID-19.

Those on the NDIS and/or living with "significant disability requiring frequent assistance with activities of daily living" are at greater risk too.

A significant number of people dying of Covid are significantly demented or very physically frail or both (and very often toward the end of life in the absence of covid).
My impression is that this is a larger group than the "high" risk group above (though their relative risk compared to an age-matched person may well be elevated).
Im sure frailty is a much bigger risk factor for death than coronary disease, hypertension and diabetes alone

 

[N860CR]

A significant number of people dying of Covid are significantly demented or very physically frail or both (and very often toward the end of life in the absence of covid).
My impression is that this is a larger group than the "high" risk group above (though their relative risk compared to an age-matched person may well be elevated).
Im sure frailty is a much bigger risk factor for death than coronary disease, hypertension and diabetes alone

The majority of covid deaths in Australia have occurred in end of life care. Having spent a bit of time in nursing homes over the years, I can tell you that would often be a blessing. 1/3 of nursing home residents die each year. These places aren’t club med.

The problem is, you can’t make this comparison. It sends the lockdown lovers into a fit.

 

[straitman]

From ABC blog

What underlying health conditions? As someone who is immunocompromised it would be very helpful to know what these underlying health conditions are that vaccinated people who are dying of COVID have. I understand the privacy issues but a general overview that is more specific than “underlying health conditions” would be very helpful and possibly life saving for those of us who are most at risk
-Ellie

Morning, Ellie - really good question, and I'm sorry if this has been a pretty stressful time for you.

People with high risk factors include:

• Those who have had an organ transplant and are on immune suppressive therapy
• Those who have had a bone marrow transplant in the past two years
• Those who are on immune-suppressive therapy for graft versus host disease
• Those who have had blood cancer in the past five years, including leukaemia, lymphoma or myelodysplastic syndrome
• Those who are having chemotherapy or radiotherapy

Moderate risk factors include:

• Chronic kidney failure
• Heart disease (coronary heart disease or failure)
• Chronic lung disease, excluding mild or moderate asthma
• Cancer in the past 12 months
• Diabetes
• Severe obesity
• Chronic liver disease
• Some neurological conditions such as stroke or dementia
• Some chronic inflammatory conditions and treatments
• Other primary or acquired immunodeficiency
• Poorly controlled hypertension

As the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) notes, pregnancy and severe mental health conditions, including bipolar disorder, can also increase the risk of severe COVID-19.

Those on the NDIS and/or living with "significant disability requiring frequent assistance with activities of daily living" are at greater risk too.

I seem to be in the Moderate Group so being very cautious.

 

[oz_mark]

Maybe that's why some Health people ban RAT. As soon as they are used by people without the threat of being officially recorded then numbers of positives increase. I'm wondering why there were 11 check-ins to a massage parlour though.

I was the bit where it said "This location has been visited by multiple COVID cases." that caught my attention. The times suggest a worker, but maybe there is more.

Anyhoo, guess we'll find out later at the presser....

 

[nutwood]

While comprehensive reporting is yes lacking, Weimar in Vic was reported by the ABC yesterday as saying:

"Less than half the people, 47 per cent of the people in the hospital were not fully vaccinated," he said. ​

​

"Three-quarters of those in ICU, 74 per cent, were not fully vaccinated."​

​

and notably

Mr Weimar added that there is "nobody in ICU who has had a third dose".​

So one would assume that they are tracking vaccination status (ie no, single or triple dosed, even if they do not make public all the data.

Mind you as the % of people who have had three doses is only just over 20% now that data at least in Vic would be quite limited.

It would be tempting to say that if 20% of the general population are triple vaxed, that's one in five and out of that 26% ICU vaccinated, there should be some representation of triple vaxed.
Unfortunately, as with the un-vaxed v vaxed, there's other factors. People who are triple vaxed are possibly more cautious in other ways. We need a few large events, heavily attended by super spreaders and where the vaccination status of the entire crowd is known. Perhaps those throwing Covid parties should be encouraged to log the event for research purposes? Health department could contribute a few free pizzas to encourage involvement.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

People who are triple vaxed are possibly more cautious in other ways.

Yes early days.

Though a lot of the early triple vaxxed will be so due to their work.

And quite a few of them work in jobs that expose them.

And few would be the % of people who did not mix at Christmas/ New Years.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Is there any point in QR checking any more given authorities seem to be overwhelmed?

 

[RooFlyer]

Is there any point in QR checking any more given authorities seem to be overwhelmed?

I would think - no; although in Tas, not overwhelmed, they just decided not to follow-up any more (no "exposure sites").

 

[clifford]

Scare scare scare

I preferred when the premier was on holidays

Where is the evidence that otherwise healthy people under 60 or 70 materially benefit from a third dose of vaccine?

Yes, I agree. All people under 60 should avoid a 3rd jab based on that thinking (apart from my relatives and people I like).

 

[andye]

Yes early days.

Though a lot of the early triple vaxxed will be so due to their work.

And quite a few of them work in jobs that expose them....

Hostage to fortune maybe, but I feel much less likely to catch covid at work (N95+goggles for all and full PPE if known positive patient) than I do socially in Sydney