Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[nutwood]

I just don't see the point because SA Health are no longer issuing alerts, in SA an individual can't see their history, just the latest check in, and we can't check out so we can't even see if we spent the required 15 minutes () in close contact with someone. Further they expect positives to tell their close contacts as SA Health tracers, if they even still exist, can't. So pointless waste of grabbing the phone. In most areas we don't use vaccination status. But mask wearing here is very good.

Once you remove heavy handed enforcement, it comes down to common sense. What is more likely to protect you from Covid, wearing a mask or scanning a QR code?
Places fussing about a green tick but not concerned about masks still have their thinking distorted by regulations that'll penalise a business for one, but not the other. With Covid loose, it just makes sense to wear a mask around strangers and that's the message that should be promoted.

 

[Pushka]

Once you remove heavy handed enforcement, it comes down to common sense. What is more likely to protect you from Covid, wearing a mask or scanning a QR code?
Places fussing about a green tick but not concerned about masks still have their thinking distorted by regulations that'll penalise a business for one, but not the other. With Covid loose, it just makes sense to wear a mask around strangers and that's the message that should be promoted.

See, I never got why using a QR code was going to protect me from Covid And I guess I didnt expect a Govt system to notify me in time after exposure. The one time I visited a hot spot, I simply checked my credit card for the purchase, and I heard nothing from SA Health, and this was during the time of an early outbreak but not an overwhelming one, I'd have thought.

 

[Lynda2475]

I only check in now when forced to, and in NSW for me that is pretty much Qantas lounges, Theatres, Pubs and indoor dining. Went to theatre on Saturday night and of course by yesterday evening there was an alert in the check-in history saying a positive was there and to monitor for symptoms (note these are less than casual contacts, no need to tests or isolate unless you become symptomatic).

Almost everywhere I've checked in since xmas eve has a similar alert, and you need to go and look for it, i suspect most people are ignoring them. Interestingly no notifications at all form my time in FNQ or Melbourne, whilst the Vic and Qld apps allows you to view history I'm not sure if they push notifications to any of that history.

Excluding those without proof of vaccination from entry (which in NSW is now up to individual venues, not a state mandate) should actually help protect more people, than checking in, since active track and trace isn't happening outside the automated alerts in your check in history.

But basically, attending any venue where you can remove your mask to eat and drink basically means accepting you will be exposed right now. Sitting outside is most you can really do, unless you opt to be a hermit and only eat and drink at home.

 

[nutwood]

But basically, attending any venue where you can remove your mask to eat and drink basically means accepting you will be exposed right now. Sitting outside is most you can really do, unless you opt to be a hermit and only eat and drink at home.

I think I've eaten inside a restaurant twice since the start of Covid. Both times family events in Tasmania. When I'm working away, the closest I've got are a few pub meals in deserted beer gardens. The rest of the time, it's takeaway, delivered if possible. If I'm staying anywhere for a few nights, I try to get accommodation with a kitchen and cook for myself.
For me, it's straight risk/benefit analysis. If I pick up Covid working away from home, I won't be able to get home. Eating in a confined space with strangers is an unacceptable risk.
I don't feel the same about planes. Once seated, I wouldn't by choice remain masked, eschewing all refreshment. I don't think the protection offered by a mask would save me if I was in close proximity to a carrier. Further away, I'm comfortable to rely on the filtration system. Masks make excellent sense in the airport, but not on the plane.

 

[RAM]

Lol as usual claiming ive said things i have not and missing the point entirely. I did not write the opinion piece and it actually stated unvaccinated plus delta, yet you keep ignoring those ICU cases which arent fully vaccinated.

The figures you are grasping at, the ones spoken about at the daily briefing and released in the NSW Health Daily Covid-19 Statistics report - are 100% misleading. and deliberately so.

The unvaccinated figure consists of the truly unvaxed (who are spruiked about as the source of all ills) who are eligible for a vaccination and those who are ineligible (or are now waiting for a vaccination). This mainly covers the under 12 year olds. At one stage, in NSW Hospitals (late 2020) the number of under 12 year olds admitted to hospital was GREATER than the real unvaxed (NSW Weekly Covid-19 Surveillance reports).

Go back a couple of months and the ineligble for vaccination covered from 0 to under 18 yr olds. Making up an even larger proportion of the 'unvaxed figure' tossed around by the NSW Govt.

View attachment 269002
Does not suit the narrative.

Meanwhile there were 2 cases in ICU that had not been sequenced despite what NSW Health have been repeatedly stating that ALL cases in ICU are sequenced.

Hold on though? Are we really supposed to be that stupid? Well yes, not one journalist noticed this discrepancy, or if they did they never asked about it.

Given the sequencing can take up to 48 hours - how many people were in NSW ICU beds as of Dec 22nd with Covid-19? 40 was the number announced on Dec 22nd, so as of 8pm Dec 21st. Plenty of time for sequencing to be done - so how does this report state that over the entire 4 month there were on;y 4?

Yet from the NSW Health Daily Covid-19 statistics there had been and average of 35 people in ICU over the last two weeks leading up to Dec 25th - so why only were 2 sequenced? Why does the report state that for the 4 week period there were only 4 people in ICU in NSW when in fact the number of people into/out of ICU over December was over 200?

For the period from 26 Nov to 25 Dec, 2020 for cases hospitalised in NSW - with very few genetic matches done - 1 out of 33 Omicron cases ended up in ICU vs 1 out of 101 Delta cases. Yet the NSW Govt party line is/was that Omicron is milder. Not what their surveillance report latest information reveals nor suits the narrative.

 

[Lynda2475]

If I pick up Covid working away from home, I won't be able to get home.

Im not prepared to stop living my life due to covid, I eat out a couple of times a week but only sit outside at the moment and also get take-away lunch most work days.

I find no joy in cooking whilst I'm on holiday, a key part of travel for me is eating local. If I couldn't find a suitable venue to dine out, I would just get takeaway and eat in my room.

But as I said you can assess your own risk.

 

[RAM]

LOL. This is not an official policy. There have been very cases in latest wave in the 90+ cohort, and many people in that cohort choose not to be admitted and have DNR orders in their living wills which prevent ventilation.

But the official source NSW Health Weekly surveillance report shows at least 1 90+ in ICU with Covid:

View attachment 268996

Yes, since June 16th, 2021 there was one exception made and just one over 90 year old was admitted to NSW ICU. I will not identify the person but suffice to say - they are a VERY close relation to a person of power/influence.

One rule for the community & one rule for the 'privileged'. A bit like the Immigration Minister exercising his discretion to allow an 'au pair' in when the borders were 'closed'.

Meanwhile 7 over 90 years old were refused access to an ICU bed locally when there were beds available (4 subsequently died) from one large Nursing home I know well. Why refused admission? That is the NSW Government policy, unless you're a close relation of somebody.

Until one over 90 year old who is very close relative of somebody who can pull the strings needs needs ICU attention - ZERO over 90 year olds were admitted previously and none since.

Do you think this is fair or abuse of the system?

 

[Lynda2475]

The unvaccinated figure consists of the truly unvaxed (who are spruiked about as the source of all ills) who are eligible for a vaccination and those who are ineligible (or are now waiting for a vaccination).

False, it is obvious you haven't actually read the weekly surveillance reports because they report unvaccinated and ineligible for vaccination separately in several places.



COVID-19 is relatively mild in most young children aged 0-11 years who are ineligible for vaccination: among cases in this group, 0.8% were hospitalised, less than 0.1% were admitted to ICU, and no cases have died

You provide zero evidence for your conspiracy theories, whilst the NSW government is actually publicly releasing breakdowns not provided by any other state; and has done since the start.

Obviously what constitutes being ineligible for vaccination changes over time, as vaccines are approved for younger cohorts, this is expected and not a conspiracy.

 

[Lynda2475]

Do you think this is fair or abuse of the system?

Nope because you have provided zero evidence of this, just a conspiracy theory. There is no policy if there was you could link to it. There are also people 90+ in ICU without covid.

Where are all the media reports from grieving families outraged that their relative had been refused admittance to ICU solely because they are aged over 90? Where are the lawsuits? Again there aren't any, because this isn't what is happening.

 

[nutwood]

Im not prepared to stop living my life due to covid, I eat out a couple of times a week but only sit outside at the moment and also get take-away lunch most work days.

I find no joy in cooking whilst I'm on holiday, a key part of travel for me is eating local. If I couldn't find a suitable venue to dine out, I would just get takeaway and eat in my room.

But as I said you can assess your own risk.

For me, being stuck in hotel quarantine for fourteen days, or worse, simply unable to get home, would be a bigger interruption to my life. I'm travelling too much and besides, I enjoy the challenge provided by self catering in some very limited kitchens. I'm refining a kit of small containers that travel with me and contain essentials in small quantities. That's a challenge in it's own right!

 

[Lynda2475]

Why does the report state that for the 4 week period there were only 4 people in ICU in NSW when in fact the number of people into/out of ICU over December was over 200?

LOL because it doesn't say only 4 people in ICU, the latest one clearly shows 197 Covid cases in ICU per my post #32,748 above.

If you are to make claims about what is published you really ought to read the relevant report.

There is also this table which covers ICU & Death for the last year:



The 5 weeks from 26th to 1st Jan show only 9 people in the 90+ cohort who were either in ICU or died, and it is extremely likely all will have had underlying conditions at that age.

Lets look at the SFR over Christmas period:


More of the 90+ who died did so in Hospital than Aged Care, and none at home. This means they all would have been receiving some care.

 

[Lynda2475]

For me, being stuck in hotel quarantine for fourteen days, or worse, simply unable to get home, would be a bigger interruption to my life.

Internationally this is a high risk, domestically not so much (WA aside, which isn't really part of Australia atm), except for maybe SA as they haven't adopted the close contact definition form National Cabinet.

With new definitions of close contact, you are unlikely to be required to take a test just because you were in the same restaurant as someone who was positive. So unless you have symptoms (or voluntarily took a test and tested positive), you are free to fly home. If you do test positive once home you can iso at home.

 

[nutwood]

That

Internationally this is a risk, domestically not so much (WA aside).

With new definitions of close contact, you are unlikely to be required to take a test just because you were in the same restaurant as someone who was positive. So unless you have symptoms, you are free to fly home. If you do test positive once home you can iso at home.

My concern is catching the virus. Under the new rules, providing it was a short trip and I had no obvious symptoms, I'd get home OK but throw in some symptoms or a positive test and I doubt Tassie would be welcoming me back.
As I wrote earlier, the risk of spending time in a confined space with unmasked strangers, outweighs any benefit to be gained.

 

[Quickstatus]

Why refused admission?

There is no NSW Health policy which declares over 90s are not eligible for ICU.
The decision is entirely up to the intensive care Drs.

Everyday there are decisions made regarding ICU admissions. There is no political interference. Basically it comes down to whether ICU would be beneficial /in the best interests of the patient and also whether there are spare ICU resources at the time

Today our ICU declined admission for an over 90yr patient with heart failure, kidney failure, and new hip fracture and stroke. The ICU has 32 beds - only 8 occcupied.

It is often the case that a squeaky wheel gets the most grease politician or not. Often if there is space, ICU will accept a squeaky wheel. Sometimes I think it’s harder to get a squeaky wheel past the airline lounge dragons than into ICU (assuming space available)

ICU is not an infinite resource. Often it will be full on any particular day and what you are describing goes on everyday Covid or not Covid

 

[andye]

As a physician working in general and geriatric practice, I have requested ICU admission for many over 90s but none for covid. The majority have been accepted as I have a reasonable judgement on if they are likely to benefit. They are typically people with need for blood pressure support in the context of an easily reversible infection or people with problems that require surgery.

I also do request for an ICU opinion at family's request when they disagree with my opinion that they will not benefit-the Intensivists usually agree with me.

The reality is that nearly all over 90s have some degree of frailty that means that they would not benefit from intubation if they have such severe covid pneumonias as to consider it.
This goes all the more so for those (in their 70s, 80s and 90s) who are in nursing homes as the nature of their pre-existing physical and/or cognitive problems mean that ICU interventions (for what is almost invariably a new very severe illness on top of their comorbities) are torturous rather than therapeutic

 

[drron]

Yes, since June 16th, 2021 there was one exception made and just one over 90 year old was admitted to NSW ICU. I will not identify the person but suffice to say - they are a VERY close relation to a person of power/influence.

One rule for the community & one rule for the 'privileged'. A bit like the Immigration Minister exercising his discretion to allow an 'au pair' in when the borders were 'closed'.

Meanwhile 7 over 90 years old were refused access to an ICU bed locally when there were beds available (4 subsequently died) from one large Nursing home I know well. Why refused admission? That is the NSW Government policy, unless you're a close relation of somebody.

Until one over 90 year old who is very close relative of somebody who can pull the strings needs needs ICU attention - ZERO over 90 year olds were admitted previously and none since.

Do you think this is fair or abuse of the system?

You have no idea what you are talking about. Refusing a 90+ year old admission to ICU is made on medical grounds not a State Government policy.
90 + year olds are routinely not offered admission to ICU or refused if they and there family as k for it because treatment would be futile. Example one who is in hospital because of acute renal failure but refuses to have dialysis. Absolutely no point in an ICU admission as nothing else could be done.
On the other hand I have had a 93 year old who the surgeon accepted for an aortic valve replacement with post operative ICU because apart from his heart valve there were absolutely no problems physically or mentally.

The only time I was pressured to arrange treatment that was not indicated it was refused with the help of a surgeon and intensivist. There was not a different rule for the privileged.

 

[ethernet]

I have closed my ears and eyes to Service NSW covid alerts - mainly because I got my Moderna booster in time (I knew kids would be prioritised on the 10th) and isolated as much as possible . I note the odds/frequency of generic sms is very high if you go to a big box store or the supermarket. Secondly because monitor for symptoms will not cut it (likely to be the same or less than a cold or flu for many - source John Campbell of UK videos).

I note little information about long covid. Omicron may be mild, but in the numbers game, not all will be so lucky. The age group has now been lowered, and rightly or wrongly, I bag ATAGI when other countries like UK USA and Israel etc approve before they do. I checked their publications :
"It is noted that no published studies that used Pfizer/Moderna as a 3rd dose after a primary schedule of AstraZeneca have been identified.
Almost all studies showed that between 32% and 50% of patients, who were seronegative after 2 primary doses, responded and developed antibodies after the 3rd dose."

Um, some questions about what unpublished reports or data that they used - UK has some good tracking, as does Denmark. India invested heavily in an AZ clone - they invested. China's vaccine effectiveness for Omicron breakthrough appears - hmmm not good. So what does this mean for slated overseas worker arrivals and the overseas education market? Or are we going to accept WHO recommendations, as things stand? (WA being independently minded). I am sure a report called Covid serology levels in Australian risk groups would be a good study worthy of grant money.

 

[Lynda2475]

the risk of spending time in a confined space with unmasked strangers

Hence my decision to dine outdoors only, in venues with good spacing between tables.

 

[nutwood]

Hence my decision to dine outdoors only, in venues with good spacing between tables.

Which is exactly what I do, if I do eat out.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Someone much criticised for her professional opinion, Mary-Louise McLaws, has been diagnosed with a brain tumour and will be taking a month’s sick leave