Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

Both of the local cases were already in quarantine but obviously there is Covid floating around somewhere after the "mystery case" yesterday.

The other news is the increased restrictions that will apply after 31 January to those who have refused to get vaccinated.

"WA has a first dose vaccination rate of 94.4 per cent for people aged 12 and over.

The double dose vaccination rate is 87 per cent, while the booster rate is 18.1 per cent for people aged 16 and over."

"But from January 31, the list of places non-vaccinated people aged 16 and above will be able to attend will shrink dramatically.

Proof of vaccination will be required to visit public and private hospitals, aged care facilities, all hospitality venues including restaurants, cafes, bars, pubs, clubs, nightclubs and dine-in fast food venues.

The unvaccinated will also be banned from museums, cinemas, the zoo, gyms, bottle shops, amusement parks, indoor entertainment venues and the entire Crown complex. They will be permitted to get take-away food and visit roadhouses and petrol stations."

Oh but you missed the justification part

——

“These will be the broadest proof of vaccination requirements in the nation and they will not be removed any time soon," Mr McGowan said.

“We have seen the disaster in New South Wales when they removed proof of vaccination requirements in mid-December. We have learned from their mistakes and are determined not to repeat them."

WA announces strictest proof of vaccination rules in Australia, requirement in place 'for years to come'

WA Premier Mark McGowan announces an expansion of proof of vaccination requirements as the state records two new local COVID-19 cases, with one linked to the Hyatt Hotel cluster.

www.abc.net.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not sure where you got the NSW 21,000 public beds as the figures put out by Dominic Perrottet are 9,500 Public hospital beds of which 8,000 were occupied on Jan 6th.

6,400 non-covid in use and 1,600 Covid in use.

Now 'renting' or about to 'rent' fully staffed (if staff not too sick) private beds totalling 3,000 (IIRC). Plan is to shift as many non-Covid cases to Private hospitals.

Almost all 12,500 hospital beds in NSW could be full during Omicron peak in worst-case scenario

Modelling predicts 6,000 people could be hospitalised with Covid in the second half of January

www.theguardian.com

Trouble is the high number (in the hundreds) of patients who were admitted for non-Covid reasons and subsequently caught Covid within the NSW public hospital. NSW Health stopped identifiying the subsequent deaths, of people who caught Covid after they were admitted, months ago.

Due to lack of facilities (negative pressure areas) - Covid patients now mixed in with non-Covid patients in limited wards. In early November at Prince of Wales a large number of the Delta 'surge capacity' ICU bed constructed areas (using kitchen fans in the windows for the 'negative pressure' - which have since been thrown out) - were dismantled totally and the old use/floorplan rebuilt.

Fresh figures from the Critical Intelligence Unit of the NSW health department show that as of 9 January the share of staffed ICU beds occupied by Covid patients across the whole state stood at 33%, up from 19.9% on 2 January.

The average length of stay of admissions for the week ending 10 January was 4.5 days, up from 3.6 days for the previous week, the data shows. For those in ICU, the average stay was 4.7 days compared with six days a week earlier.

The decrease in ICU stays may be partially explained by the number of deaths averaging 11 per day over that week vs 3 the previous week. NSW Health states that deaths generally lag diagnosis by between 21 to 28 days - suggesting that these figures (w/e Jan 9, 2022) correspond to when cases averaged 1,300 positives per day.

The last time I checked, the official number of cases being 'monitored' by NSW Health under 'Hospital in the home' was just over 13,200 Covid-19 cases.

I got all the public hospital bed estimates off here

Australia: number of public hospital beds by state 2020 | Statista

As of June 2020, around 20.72 thousand beds were located in public hospitals in the Australian state of New South Wales.

www.statista.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SA (32,516 active – 4500 public hospital beds, 161 public/private ICU beds)
Certain elective surgery suspended/paused - announced 28/12

5/1 3493 positives, 21k tests, 125 hospital, 12 ICU
6/1 3070 positives, 21k tests, 123 hospital, 12 ICU
7/1 3707 positives, 20k tests, 144 hospital, 16 ICU
8/1 4274 positives, 24k tests, 164 hospital, 16 ICU
9/1 4506 positives, 23k tests, 176 hospital, 18 ICU
10/1 4024 positives, 21k tests, 188 hospital, 21 ICU
11/1 2921 positives, 18k tests, 211 hospital, 22 ICU
12/1 2978 PCR+, 19k tests, 737 RAT+, 190 hospital, 27 ICU
13/1 3669 positives, 20k tests, 225 hospital, 26 ICU

NT (3000 active – 1000 public hospital beds, 20 public/private ICU beds)

5/1 117 positives, 2.1k tests, 21 hospital, 1 ICU
6/1 256 positives, 2.5k tests, 23 hospital, 2 ICU
7/1 412 positives, 2.8k tests, 19 hospital, 2 ICU
8/1 594 positives, 3.0k tests, 17 hospital, 1 ICU
9/1 481 positives, 2.5k tests, 24 hospital, 1 ICU
10/1 403 positives, 2.5k tests, 26 hospital, 1/2 ICU
11/1 594 positives, 2.2k tests, 32 hospital, 1 ICU
12/1 352 positives, 2.4k tests, 28 hospital, 1/2 ICU
13/1 550 positives, 24 hospital, 1 ICU

WA (117 active – 5900 public hospital beds, 179 public/private ICU bed)

5/1 5 local positives, 6.1k tests
6/1 1 local positive, 6.4k tests
7/1 0 local positives, 4.6k tests
8/1 1 local positive, 4.8k tests
9/1 1 local positive, 3.4k tests
10/1 3 local positives, 6.1k tests
11/1 4 local positives, 4.6k tests
12/1 2 local positives – 1 unknown source, 4.3k tests
13/1 2 local positives (Delta backpacker 23, Omicron HQ leak 4 (+1)), 4.5k tests

 

[drron]

In response to some comments over the last week or so I wanted to chime in that, having lost an elderly family member overseas last year - with comorbidities but from covid - the fact they had a terminal diagnosis brought very little solace. They died alone, isolated from loved ones with their final days significantly hastened due to this disease. Absent covid, those could have been quiet months at home. I am not accusing anyone on this forum of doing so, but dismissing the seriousness of the loss of life, elderly or not and with or without comorbidities, is selfish.

And that is the very sad bit but it wasn't covid that forced people to die alone but our reaction to it. From April to June in 2020 I was working in Launceston. It was the time of the NWRH and Mersey closures. It was one of the busiest times of my career. But we had a NUM on the ward I was working in who alone in the hospital not only allowed visitors - one at a time for 30 minutes- but if a patient was dying they were put in a single room but that was so the whole family could come in and visit. Interstate family got exemptions to come to Tasmania but had to quarantine. They were however brought to the hospital by the police for 30 minutes every day to see their relative. This is the way it should have been done.

 

[kyle]

Irrespective of the people’s assessments of pre v post Covid in VICTORIA (as a retired doctor ) I say worse
Amongst my family/friends 5 elective operations - having paid top private health cover - cancelled.
OK - not life threatening ops for next 24 hours but entirely medically needed.
PreCovid it was never the case that I can recall.

Is it under the pandemic powers that the govt can cancel elective surgeries for private patients? I would have thought that the doctors, private hospitals and private patients are under a contractual arrangement. Guess what I’m saying is, what’s the point of having private health insurance?

Sorry I have no idea how it works. I’ve got top hospital cover without pregnancy cover, but have not been required to use it except for minor day surgery previously.

 

[MARTINE]

Is it under the pandemic powers that the govt can cancel elective surgeries for private patients? I would have thought that the doctors, private hospitals and private patients are under a contractual arrangement. Guess what I’m saying is, what’s the point of having private health insurance?

Sorry I have no idea how it works. I’ve got top hospital cover without pregnancy cover, but have not been required to use it except for minor day surgery previously.

Government can have surge capacity by using private hospital beds. Space must be cleared so anything bar Cat 1 - (must have op in 24hours) gets cancelled.

 

[Pushka]

Is it under the pandemic powers that the govt can cancel elective surgeries for private patients? I would have thought that the doctors, private hospitals and private patients are under a contractual arrangement. Guess what I’m saying is, what’s the point of having private health insurance?

Sorry I have no idea how it works. I’ve got top hospital cover without pregnancy cover, but have not been required to use it except for minor day surgery previously.

Happened last closure. Public Hospitals move non covid patients to Private Hospitals and in SA that's already started as it means a shift of maybe 300 patients out of the PH. They have to be moved in advance obviously so beds are already gone.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW (336,265 active – 21,000 public hospital beds, 884 public/private ICU beds)
[previous peak hospital/ICU: 1268/242 - September 2021]
Certain elective surgery suspended/paused - announced 7/1

7/1 38,625 positives, 112k tests, 1738 hospital, 134 ICU
8/1 45,098 positives, 116k tests, 1795 hospital, 145 ICU
9/1 30,062 positives, 98k tests, 1927 hospital, 151 ICU
10/1 20,293 positives, 84k tests, 2030 hospital, 159 ICU
11/1 25,870 positives, 71k tests, 2186 hospital, 170 ICU
12/1 34,759 positives, 134k tests, 2242 hospital, 175 ICU
13/1 30,877 PCR+, 88k tests, 61,387 RAT+, 2383 hospital, 182 ICU
14/1 25,080 PCR+, 37,938 RAT+, 2525 hospital, 184 ICU

Victoria (239,396 active – 15,000 public hospital beds, 476 public/private ICU beds)
[previous peak hospital/ICU: 851/163 - October 2021]
Certain elective surgery suspended/paused - announced 6/1

7/1 21,728 positives, 68k tests, 644 hospital, 106 ICU active
8/1 24,928 PCR+, 89k tests, 5923/26,428 RAT+, 731* hospital, 109* ICU
9/1 22,104 PCR+, 83k tests, 22,051 RAT+, 752 hospital, 104 ICU
10/1 17,618 PCR+, 78k tests, 17,190 RAT+, 818 hospital, 118 ICU
11/1 19,491 PCR+, 59k tests, 18,503 RAT+, 861 hospital, 117 ICU
12/1 21,693 PCR+, 61k tests, 18,434 RAT+, 946 hospital, 112 ICU
13/1 20,326 PCR+, 62k tests, 16,843 RAT+, 953 hospital, 111 ICU
14/1 19,396 PCR+, 62k tests, 15,440 RAT+, 976 hospital, 112 ICU

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Tasmania (7439 active – 1500 public hospital beds, 38 public/private ICU beds)

7/1 1489 positives, 5.2k tests, 3/8 hospital
8/1 1051 PCR+, 4.4k tests, 1172 RAT+, 4/10 hospital
9/1 598 PCR+, 3.2k tests, 808 RAT+, 4/15 hospital
10/1 397 PCR+, 2.2k tests, 821 RAT+, 11/17 hospital
11/1 364 PCR+, 2.3k tests, 1015 RAT+, 7/18 hospital
12/1 736 PCR+, 2.6k tests, 847 RAT+, 8/22 hospital
13/1 253 PCR+, 2.4k tests, 847 RAT+, 10/23 hospital
14/1 349 PCR+, 2.0k tests, 852 RAT+, 10/24 hospital (10 out of 24 being treated for covid)

 

[Lynda2475]

14/1 25,080 PCR+, 37,938 RAT+, 2525 hospital, 184 ICU

Still failing to point out the pertinent information re the date range for these RATs and issue of double counting (of course that doesn't suit the OPs agenda). These numbers are over stated, its been widely reported.

From the official release:

14/1: Please note there may be some cases included in these numbers where people have reported positive RATs on multiple days and/or where people have also had a positive PCR test during the same reporting period.

** Of the 37,938 positive RAT results, 24,329 of these positive tests were from the previous seven days.

So 13,609 are more than a week old (as you can report back to 1/1); and only some of the 24,329 were for yesterday.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Premier Dominic Perrottet says NSW is committed to starting school on day one, term one​

Mr Perrottet:

"As we have said here in NSW, we are completely committed to getting schools open day one, term one, in a way that is safe for students and for teachers."
"And we are - as we agreed yesterday we will be finalising those plans with the Department of Education and NSW Health, we are working very closely with the Victorian Government where we are obviously in a very similar situation in relation to the virus to have those plans submitted at National Cabinet next week and by submitting those plans we will release those publicly following National Cabinet on Thursday."

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW's current hospitalisation rate is lower than best case scenario outlined in COVID modelling, Premier says​

Mr Perrottet said authorities would release the modelling today.
"We are tracking against that modelling and whilst the health system is under pressure and our health teams are doing an amazing job," he said.
"We are currently tracking at both an ICU and hospitalisation rate here in NSW better than the best case scenario we released last week. So that is encouraging, reassuring and pleasing."
He said the NSW health system is feeling the strain, as are other jurisdictions.
"The health system is under pressure in this state, just like right around the country and right around the world as we move through this pandemic," he said.
"It is going to be a difficult few weeks ahead but the tracking that we are releasing today is very reassuring and encouraging given where we sit today in in the pandemic."

 

[Lynda2475]

From ABC Blog, NSW CHO on re-infection risk:

"If you have been diagnosed with COVID, so people with recent COVID ... within four weeks of when they have been released from isolation they are not considered at risk of reinfection and therefore don't have to isolate," she said.

"So that may not have been clear. So for instance if you've had COVID you have gone in and done your seven days isolation, for the next four weeks even if you get exposed to COVID or someone else in your household gets COVID, that hadn't had it before, you do not need to isolate.

"You are considered pragmatically not to be considered at risk of reinfection for that period."


Note this is quite different from the 6 month recent infection criteria the like of Novak are trying to use to enter the country. They clearly know re-infection is possible again in less than 6 months.

 

[Pushka]

From ABC Blog, NSW CHO on re-infection risk:

"If you have been diagnosed with COVID, so people with recent COVID ... within four weeks of when they have been released from isolation they are not considered at risk of reinfection and therefore don't have to isolate," she said.

"So that may not have been clear. So for instance if you've had COVID you have gone in and done your seven days isolation, for the next four weeks even if you get exposed to COVID or someone else in your household gets COVID, that hadn't had it before, you do not need to isolate.

"You are considered pragmatically not to be considered at risk of reinfection for that period."


Note this is quite different from the 6 month recent infection criteria the like of Novak are trying to use to enter the country. They clearly know re-infection is possible again in less than 6 months.

I asked family member this yesterday as she was positive and works in the medical area, and also the toddler who attends childcare. She wasn't sure at all. A month isn't much grace though. Wonder if there is a difference with being vaccinated or unvaccinated as well.

 

[Lynda2475]

I asked family member this yesterday as she was positive and works in the medical area, and also the toddler who attends childcare. She wasn't sure at all. A month isn't much grace though. Wonder if there is a difference with being vaccinated or unvaccinated as well.

The context of the question was re the need to test and ISO following a subsequent close contact exposure (i.e. someone else in your household or household like workplace).

If its been 7 days since your positive test and you feel well, you are good to not have to do any further ISO or testing for the following month even if you get pinged as a close contact again.

Once its been longer than a month, you are at risk of reinfection (especially if unvaccinated or not boosted) so you would have to test and possibly iso again if exposed again after that.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW Premier: 'The only way out of this is to push through'​

Reporter:

"I want to ask you — when you saw the number of deaths this morning, and given the awful week that we've had, has it at any point shaken your resolve about whether or not we're on the right path here in terms of our path?"

Premier Dominic Perrottet:

"I believe we're completely on the right path. The only way out of this is to push through. And that's exactly what our people are doing."
"When we've talked about over the last two years, learning to live alongside the virus, there's all going to be challenges through this transition.
"We have to live in the world as it is — not as we want it to be. COVID is not something that is unique to New South Wales. It is happening all around the world. And what is being key in our state has been the vaccination rate.
"That booster rate today for eligible people above 40 per cent is incredibly pleasing, and that means that as we move through, we'll continue to have one of the lowest death rates anywhere in the world.
"But the reality is that in a pandemic, there are going to be hospitalise in ICUs. You know, these are always confronting and difficult things — not just for leaders to face, but for all people right across New South Wales and right across the world to face."

from ABC blog

All the COVID news you need from across Australia — as it happened

Get up to speed on all the coronavirus news from across Australia.

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I asked family member this yesterday as she was positive and works in the medical area, and also the toddler who attends childcare. She wasn't sure at all. A month isn't much grace though. Wonder if there is a difference with being vaccinated or unvaccinated as well.

In Vic the official SMS that people are sent at the end of their isolation period states 4 weeks as the period that the government considers the individual to be clear of reinfection. E.g. They don't have to isolate if a close contact tests positive etc

 

[Pushka]

In Vic the official SMS that people are sent at the end of their isolation period states 4 weeks as the period that the government considers the individual to be clear of reinfection. E.g. They don't have to isolate if a close contact tests positive etc

I'll let you know what SA Health does. Likely they won't SMS the freedom text until four weeks after isolation ends (it's 10 days here because apparently we have different "health advice" here).

 

[Lynda2475]

in NSW you don't have to wait for a clearance SMS and they are not always sending them. Once you have done 7 days ISO you are good to get on with life and exempt from further ISO and Test if exposed again within 4 weeks.

Close and casual contacts are not really a thing anymore anyway., unless you live together or work in a very narrow list of industries like aged care.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Given at least 4% of the population have a recent infection we could find out about whether re-infection (Edit within 4 weeks) is possible (eg got Omicron, get second Omicron; got Omicron, get Delta; got Delta, get Omicron) but with an exception from testing/isolation (Edit for 4 weeks after release from isolation) we probably will never find out.

EDIT to clarify my comment relates the 4 weeks post infection.