Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

Why compare Australia only?

The number of people globally that die from the flu each year is between 250K-650K depending on the severity.

The number of deaths globally from covid is 6.5M! Not quite 3 years and it is almost 2.2M deaths per year.

Based on the reported covid infections the death rate is 1.1% globally. Yes the numbers are debatable. Maybe the number of infections should be double and the deaths halved but then you need to filter out those infected twice or 3 times. Still significant numbers.

Also at 590M the number of infections are ~200M a year. I can't find a statistic for how many flu infections a year. But at 200M for covid that's quite high. And possibly even higher if not all reported.

You’ve sort of addressed your own concern there. Obviously all are not reported. While Australians may have the privilege of being able to shart their pants and line up for hours to get a free covid test, the vast majority of the world can’t (and doesn’t). Realistic infection rates have been quoted by the WHO as being probably 10 times higher than reported. That significantly reduces that death rate. Let’s not forget that we now have easy access to a vaccine that’s close to 100% effective and antivirals that have similar success.

Trying to use 2020 experience to assess 2022+ outcomes is totally pointless as we are now in a position where we can easily treat the virus, and the virus itself has mutated into something far less severe.

A bit like the mask argument. We’ve flogged it for 2 and a half years and they’ve been fairly unsuccessful, yet many hold onto them as their savior. What do they say about repeating the same thing and expecting a different result?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You’ve sort of addressed your own concern there. Obviously all are not reported. While Australians may have the privilege of being able to shart their pants and line up for hours to get a free covid test, the vast majority of the world can’t (and doesn’t). Realistic infection rates have been quoted by the WHO as being probably 10 times higher than reported. That significantly reduces that death rate. Let’s not forget that we now have easy access to a vaccine that’s close to 100% effective and antivirals that have similar success.

Trying to use 2020 experience to assess 2022+ outcomes is totally pointless as we are now in a position where we can easily treat the virus, and the virus itself has mutated into something far less severe.

A bit like the mask argument. We’ve flogged it for 2 and a half years and they’ve been fairly unsuccessful, yet many hold onto them as their savior. What do they say about repeating the same thing and expecting a different result?

If the vaccine is close to 100% effective, why are there so many in hospital, and in ICU?

What you mean of course is that the vaccines are quite effective in preventing death. But that doesn’t take into account the ongoing isolation periods, the lack of staff to carry out other essential medical assessments and procedures, the lost wages by causals who can’t work, the effects of long covid, the effects of second and third infections on the heart and blood, the disruption to everyone in their everyday lives because people keep getting covid.

Given all of the above you’d think any measure to help reduce that would be welcomed. Especially the simplest ones like wearing a mask, social distancing and good hygiene. Demanding 100% and guaranteed success before you implement a measure is unrealistic. If we insisted on that we’d have virtually no safety measures at all, anywhere.

 

[Quickstatus]

2 masks per day.

Lots of N95.
Help yourself in every ward

 

[drron]

Why compare Australia only?

The number of people globally that die from the flu each year is between 250K-650K depending on the severity.

The number of deaths globally from covid is 6.5M! Not quite 3 years and it is almost 2.2M deaths per year.

Based on the reported covid infections the death rate is 1.1% globally. Yes the numbers are debatable. Maybe the number of infections should be double and the deaths halved but then you need to filter out those infected twice or 3 times. Still significant numbers.

Also at 590M the number of infections are ~200M a year. I can't find a statistic for how many flu infections a year. But at 200M for covid that's quite high. And possibly even higher if not all reported.

You miss my point entirely. Covid is demonstrably more transmissable than flu. however now the chance of dying of Covid if you get it is lower than the chance of dying of the flu if you get it. So as of now 1 child who was an under 5 and had no known other problems has died of covid in Australia since the pandemic started. Whilst 4 under 5's have died of flu this year.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You miss my point entirely. Covid is demonstrably more transmissable than flu. however now the chance of dying of Covid if you get it is lower than the chance of dying of the flu if you get it. So as of now 1 child who was an under 5 and had no known other problems has died of covid in Australia since the pandemic started. Whilst 4 under 5's have died of flu this year.

But under 5s aren’t the only people who matter. I’m sure plenty of folk will still like to have Christmas lunch with their parents this year.

 

[jakeseven7]

But under 5s aren’t the only people who matter. I’m sure plenty of folk will still like to have Christmas lunch with their parents this year.

Yup so the parents shouldn't drive to Christmas lunch because they'd have more chance of leaving this planet that way

 

[nutwood]

Yup so the parents shouldn't drive to Christmas lunch because they'd have more chance of leaving this planet that way

Another dodgy argument, unless you can show some relationship between driving and Covid.

 

[Quickstatus]

I see Chairman Dan is giving away free masks and not reimposing mask mandates or other mandates to cover the current "wave".
And lo the masks are ....(drum roll)....N95.

What happened to the "Made by Singer" brand?.

Strangely he says he is following health advice... which apparently not so long ago was mandates, mandates, mandates, lockdown N=5?

 

[jakeseven7]

I see Chairman Dan is giving away free masks and not reimposing mask mandates or other mandates to cover the current "wave".
And lo the masks are ....(drum roll)....N95.

What happened to the "Made by Singer" brand?.

Strangely he says he is following health advice... which apparently not so long ago was mandates, mandates, mandates, lockdown N=5?

It’s actually because all the states now are swimming in masks. Can’t get rid of them.

 

[Quickstatus]

swimming in masks

Exactly

All about mandates, lockdown, QRcodes, apps, vaccine production, social distancing
If only Australian governments ramped up local production of N95 early on...

 

[jakeseven7]

Exactly

All about mandates, lockdown, QRcodes, apps, vaccine production, social distancing
If only Australian governments ramped up local production of N95 early on...

And if they did? It’s a bit so what now really.

 

[Quickstatus]

And if they did

Could have done a lot more re mitigating transmission than pretending the "Made by Singer" ones makes a difference.

 

[JohnK]

You miss my point entirely. Covid is demonstrably more transmissable than flu. however now the chance of dying of Covid if you get it is lower than the chance of dying of the flu if you get it. So as of now 1 child who was an under 5 and had no known other problems has died of covid in Australia since the pandemic started. Whilst 4 under 5's have died of flu this year.

I didn't miss your point entirely.

I see the mess we are in and I'm very concerned and people want to go dancing, cinema, restaurants so they're not depressed. As a health professional you know the dangers better than I do. Don't ignore the effects of long covid.

Time for a break. I don't understand the rush. Proceed with caution. No need for heavy restrictions. Some simple measures to limit spread.

 

[N860CR]

If the vaccine is close to 100% effective, why are there so many in hospital, and in ICU?

What you mean of course is that the vaccines are quite effective in preventing death. But that doesn’t take into account the ongoing isolation periods, the lack of staff to carry out other essential medical assessments and procedures, the lost wages by causals who can’t work, the effects of long covid, the effects of second and third infections on the heart and blood, the disruption to everyone in their everyday lives because people keep getting covid.

Given all of the above you’d think any measure to help reduce that would be welcomed. Especially the simplest ones like wearing a mask, social distancing and good hygiene. Demanding 100% and guaranteed success before you implement a measure is unrealistic. If we insisted on that we’d have virtually no safety measures at all, anywhere.

Because they are there for other reasons and just happen to test positive for this virus. I don’t recall a time in history where we’ve tested every person entering hospital for something.

As has been explained many times, the virus is not causing isolation periods etc. That is 100% the result of poor policy. You still believe that can be solved by wearing a pointless mask that has been proven to be ineffective.

First it was lockdowns, then border closures, then vaccines, then indefinite masks. What’s next? You just can’t let go.

 

[drron]

I didn't miss your point entirely.

I see the mess we are in and I'm very concerned and people want to go dancing, cinema, restaurants so they're not depressed. As a health professional you know the dangers better than I do. Don't ignore the effects of long covid.

Time for a break. I don't understand the rush. Proceed with caution. No need for heavy restrictions. Some simple measures to limit spread.

Most people with long covid are not severely disabled and most make full recoveries. Just the same as chronic fatigue with many other viral infections. I had fatique for 4 months after glandular fever.
Just as an Aside as a General physician in Private practice not far from a major centre I got sent many people with Chronic Fatigue. So they got a bank of tests and over quite a few years and a few hundred patients I would find ~ 15% had another disease -thyroid problems,coeliac disease,haemochromatosis, cancers and a few others. My worry is some people are being labelled long covid who have a treatable disease.

And my treatment then is being advised again now for the fatique gradually increasing exercise program.

The problem is there have been too many prophets of doom. Predicted millions of cases so after lockdowns they could say see we did everything right. But I gave the example of Japan. High mask usage, similiar vaccination rates to Australia, borders still closed but in the last 2 weeks according to the WHO the highest case rate in the world. And in the opposite direction Nigeria with virtually no mask usage, very poor vaccination rates and no social distancing with 10% the rates of infection of western countries.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Because they are there for other reasons and just happen to test positive for this virus. I don’t recall a time in history where we’ve tested every person entering hospital for something.

As has been explained many times, the virus is not causing isolation periods etc. That is 100% the result of poor policy. You still believe that can be solved by wearing a pointless mask that has been proven to be ineffective.

First it was lockdowns, then border closures, then vaccines, then indefinite masks. What’s next? You just can’t let go.

No one has explained that if you have covid and need to isolate for seven days, that that isolation requirement is a result of poor policy. What is the alternative? You test positive and immediately head back to work?
Equally, no one has said covid will be ‘solved’ by mask wearing. But mask wearing could help reduce transmission.

 

[nutwood]

Most people with long covid are not severely disabled and most make full recoveries. Just the same as chronic fatigue with many other viral infections. I had fatique for 4 months after glandular fever.
Just as an Aside as a General physician in Private practice not far from a major centre I got sent many people with Chronic Fatigue. So they got a bank of tests and over quite a few years and a few hundred patients I would find ~ 15% had another disease -thyroid problems,coeliac disease,haemochromatosis, cancers and a few others. My worry is some people are being labelled long covid who have a treatable disease.

And my treatment then is being advised again now for the fatique gradually increasing exercise program.

The problem is there have been too many prophets of doom. Predicted millions of cases so after lockdowns they could say see we did everything right. But I gave the example of Japan. High mask usage, similiar vaccination rates to Australia, borders still closed but in the last 2 weeks according to the WHO the highest case rate in the world. And in the opposite direction Nigeria with virtually no mask usage, very poor vaccination rates and no social distancing with 10% the rates of infection of western countries.

The African situation is interesting. Do you have an hypothesis for why their rates are so much lower? Is it simply much less testing and people who are sick, are just sick rather than being a statistic?
I find it hard to believe that not wearing masks is the reason (correlation V causation etc). Other thoughts are dryer climate, better ventilation, less interaction between communities?

 

[sanne]

The African situation is interesting. Do you have an hypothesis for why their rates are so much lower? Is it simply much less testing and people who are sick, are just sick rather than being a statistic?
I find it hard to believe that not wearing masks is the reason (correlation V causation etc). Other thoughts are dryer climate, better ventilation, less interaction between communities?

Perhaps because Covid has been primarily a problem for the older demographic…… in Africa there is a lower average age, less comorbidities ( died younger with these illnesses ) , have acquired more resistance to viruses due to lifestyle. Some other genetic reason which we may find out in due course. And lastly the reporting of reasons of death and hospitalisation may not be as thorough.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The African situation is interesting. Do you have an hypothesis for why their rates are so much lower? Is it simply much less testing and people who are sick, are just sick rather than being a statistic?
I find it hard to believe that not wearing masks is the reason (correlation V causation etc). Other thoughts are dryer climate, better ventilation, less interaction between communities?

Unicef offers some suggestions… although the report is dated 2020. Among the things they list are a much younger population, few aged care homes, different climate, fast action by countries used to dealing with other contagious diseases for example ebola… the latter including good community health networks.

Maybe some of those things have changed two years on, but the much younger population probably has a significant impact.

 

[jakeseven7]

Could have done a lot more re mitigating transmission than pretending the "Made by Singer" ones makes a difference.

Its been pretty clear without majority herd mask use (ie ongoing mandates) it doesn't really do much anyway, so in the great wash up probably wouldn't have even touched the edges.