Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

Yes, talk of a “record” day in Victoria.
Hopefully it is way off the mark

It wouldn't be at all surprising. Melbourne has only been back on Stage 3 restrictions now for one week. Probably still some time to go. And the other thing, I've said it before, whilst we are quarantining inbound travellers who may or may not have the virus, because they can't be trusted to stay at home, we trust anyone who tests positive to stay at home. Bound to see spread still for quite some time.

It's probably early next week whether we can tell if the restrictions have had an effect or not.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Press conference from Vic at 11am. Adelaide media pointing to very glum news. Hope they are wrong.

Hopefully. The large increase reports , or "bad news" days, normally tend come out late in the day after lunch. In part I think to allow the contact tracers to make sense of the data. So hopefully 11am does not mean really bad news.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Though total numbers is not the only form of bad news. Where it is occurring (as in aged care or spread to a new location ), or mortalities can be bad news in themselves.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Yes, talk of a “record” day in Victoria.
Hopefully the 317 i heard it is way off the mark

COVID live is reporting 300+ expected

 

[Pushka]

So is this actually the first wave that we didnt really experience?

 

[Flying mermaid]

So is this actually the first wave that we didnt really experience?

I think so - the first time was mainly overseas travellers with a little community spread. This is the first major community spread

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So is this actually the first wave that we didnt really experience?

Different people seem to define what a second wave is differently. Certainly it is a second spike on the graph though.

So whatever you want to call it wave, surge, spike...it is a lot more cases in a sustained growth pattern.

 

[Hvr]

So is this actually the first wave that we didnt really experience?

I suggest it is. While the numbers have been low, I think we've not really experienced the true effects of this pandemic. While some countries are being devastated, e.g. USA, UK and Brazil, the numbers are still climbing.

I posit that so far in Australia we've barely begun our pandemic devastation. I truly hope I'm wrong but time will tell.

 

[Pushka]

317 and two more deaths.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I suggest it is. While the numbers have been low, I think we've not really experienced the true effects of this pandemic. While some countries are being devastated, e.g. USA, UK and Brazil, the numbers are still climbing.

I posit that so far in Australia we've barely begun our pandemic devastation. I truly hope I'm wrong but time will tell.

Those are countries with a terrible response. UK was initially going along the herd immunity path and only changed when Johnson was convinced it would be a disaster. USA and Brazil have had a response bordering on criminal with the Govenors in the USA working against mayors who were trying to lock down and Trump politicising things like masks and continually spreading lies about it being a minor problem and has been beaten.

We need to take as our guide places like South Korea or Germany who had second waves but managed to clamp down on them. I am still lost in admiration at how Australia is working together to deal with this. Yes there were clearly problems/sloppiness in Victoria but they are getting support from other states and we can hope that another week will see cases plateauing and going down.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Some salients points on today's Vic data.

Positivity rate high again at 1.08% So the trend here is not good.

Cases in the 20-29 age group has increased as a proportion. Is now 29.8%. 25.5% for last 7 days. So pushing towards 1 in 3.
(This may not just be risky private social behaviours, as younger workers are also more likely to be in manual or face to face jobs in this age group).

Cases in 30-44 age group increased to 28.6%. 26.6% for last 7 days.

Cases in 0- 14 age group dropped markedly to to 5.0%. 9.6% for last 7 days.
Cases in 15-19 age group dropped markedly to to 4.2%. 6.5% for last 7 days.

Cases in 80+ is 6.7% . 3.8% for the last 7 days. So in terms of possible future mortalities this is a very alarming trend.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw‘s number today is 10

4 in hotel quaratine
3 linked to Crossroads hotel
3 under investigation.

lets hope the 3 under investigation is not any further than secondary infections.

 

[moa999]

Nsw‘s number today is 10

4 in hotel quaratine
3 linked to Crossroads hotel
3 under investigation.

And that was of 22k tests.
So 6 of 22,000 in the community - still a low number.
(Whereas Vic is now average about 1% in the community testing)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And that was of 22k tests.
So 6 of 22,000 in the community - still a low number.
(Whereas Vic is now average about 1% in the community testing)

That’s the only positive aspect of numbers so far for NSW.

But just like anything positive spin matters little to COVID-19......

Positive cases are usually a delay of about 2 days from testing numbers.

As the spread in Sydney seems to be from young more mobile with a higher index of close/casual contacts, and adding no or little symptoms, a quicker infectious period and the area of Sydney (I guess looking at news graphs about 2/3 or 3/4) with a nearby site.........it’s looking like .........a big worry.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interesting to note looking back with hindsight....from ABC Covid live blog

Should Melbourne have gone into lockdown sooner?

Brett Sutton is asked if metropolitan Melbourne should have moved into lockdown when it was imposed on hotspot areas.

He says it came down to trying to balance a "proportionate response in terms of understanding what it means to close businesses, to cause economic and psychological and health hardship and suffering for individuals".

"And so the postcodes lockdown, if you like, was trying to put the brakes on the transmission that we saw very focused in those areas. To see if our test and trace could get on top of all the other smaller numbers, two, three, in other postcodes.

"That didn't occur. It was insufficient. But we needed to see what the transmission dynamics were like, was it something we could get on top of, following individual cases, or did it needed that broader measure?

"When it was apparent it was tick up, it was only within 24-48 hours before we went to the full lockdown."

Post automatically merged: Jul 16, 2020

Nsw‘s number today is 10

4 in hotel quaratine
3 linked to Crossroads hotel
3 under investigation.

lets hope the 3 under investigation is not any further than secondary infections.

From ABC covid live blog.......

NSW Health 'concerned' about three mystery coronavirus cases

AAP

Health authorities in NSW are scrambling to identify the source of three mystery coronavirus infections, in an attempt to link them to a growing cluster in Sydney's south west.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said "around 40" confirmed COVID-19 cases had been linked to the Crossroads Hotel outbreak in Casula, an increase on yesterday's number of 34.

The three mystery infections were all in Sydney's south-western suburbs, Dr Chant said.

 

[p--and--t]

The sad part of the numbers that has not been picked up on by the media is the CMOs comment a couple of days ago that every 100 = 1 death in the future. So 317 today means 3 deaths in the future,

Add that to the numbers over the last week, that is getting to be significant numbers.

Also he pointed out that those in hospital already include persons in their 20s 30s 40s 50s.

So many people suffering (including financially & mentally) yet last night down the lane way near my place were a dozen or so young (students) drunks wandering around together making a loud noise at 2am.

 

[jeza]

Do they give age breakdowns for those hospitalized & in ICU like they do for those who have the virus? Maybe that would help in spreading the message that it's not just the older generations that end up very sick or worse.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Zero in ACT again and nearly a 1,000 tests. It’s nearly 2 weeks since people returning to the ACT from Melbourne were asked to self isolate. Potential from Sydney is possibly worse, as there is a lot of travel to and from Sydney.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Zero in ACT again and nearly a 1,000 tests. It’s nearly 2 weeks since people returning to the ACT from Melbourne were asked to self isolate. Potential from Sydney is possibly worse, as there is a lot of travel to and from Sydney.

It doesn’t feel like two weeks....time flies I guess.

This is another glimmer of good news.

But yes, another two weeks to see how traffic from Sydney plays out for ACT.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld 0 cases and about 1000 tests.

The testing rate (less than ACT for example) would be the only concern from these numbers, given to prevalence of no/little symptoms and high mobility during a holiday season and it’s point as a holiday destination.

edit: misread the graphic, Qld is testing about 6000-7000 daily. As a reference point, if I’m not mistaken as to facts I think SE Qld population is 9-10 times ACT population.