Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[amaroo]

If 97% are fine then it'll be a miracle.

Maybe read about it a bit more....

 

[dajop]

Basically any place of social gathering e.g. casino, worship, cinema, pub, club, gym etc is closed from midday and expected to remain so for at least 6 months.

Wow .... 6 months.

 

[amaroo]

Wow .... 6 months.

That's been out and about for weeks now.

 

[p--and--t]

How will you bounce back from that disappointment?

I finally laughed at one of your retorts .

 

[serfty]

OK, what about your local building contractor wanting to complete a house? Are concrete pours banned?

Or your Jim's Mowing dude? TV repair service?

There's been all this reference to "Small Businesses" having to close but little more specific detail. Is at all (other than specific exceptions) or just service (shop front) businesses?

 

[Hvr]

Or your Jim's Mowing dude?

Our mowing bloke (not Jim) actually came on Friday. We have the perfect arrangement, I text him when it needs to be done, he tells me when he's coming and then emails the bill after he's done the lawn.

I see it's done and pay by bank transfer, and haven't met him for at least 12 months. I have security footage he's been.

Basically, it can be done without human interaction at any distance.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I'd say follow the official line, not what media interpret.

The Prime Minister said specifically in his press conference that anything that is not a place of social gathering will continue as normal as long as the defined limits of people in a given area were followed. He outlined specific examples of places that will close. Retail will remain open.

All the activities you mentioned @serfty strike me as not social gatherings but otherwise essential tasks that need to be done and can be done as yesterday and the day before.

 

[amaroo]

OK, what about your local building contractor wanting to complete a house? Are concrete pours banned?

Or your Jim's Mowing dude? TV repair service?

There's been all this reference to "Small Businesses" having to close but little more specific detail. Is at all (other than specific exceptions) or just service (shop front) businesses?

So glad we haven't started the KDRB .... can you imagine having scaffolding sitting on site costing $4, $6K, 8K a month. By the way, all of your examples can continue to trade... at this point in time.

 

[N860CR]

So glad we haven't started the KDRB .... can you imagine having scaffolding sitting on site costing $4, $6K, 8K a month. By the way, all of your examples can continue to trade... at this point in time.

I’m in the final stages! Just need another 2 or so weeks and we’re done. It’ll rain now, of course.

 

[p--and--t]

OK, what about your local building contractor wanting to complete a house? Are concrete pours banned?

Or your Jim's Mowing dude? TV repair service?

There's been all this reference to "Small Businesses" having to close but little more specific detail. Is at all (other than specific exceptions) or just service (shop front) businesses?

From what I understood from the PM...

Under stage 1 of "national" shutdown measures only those places/industries that have shown they are not obeying the 4sqm rule are nationally to close. They include cinemas, pubs, clubs, churches, cafes restaurants etc. (Restaurants & cafes can provide take away or delivery service but not sit down)

Under the "national" rules shops and shopping centres and workplaces can stay open provided there are not more than 100 people and the 4 square metre rule is strictly adhered to.

However, individual states may implement stricter rules. I guess this will be clarified by the Premiers of VIC and NSW tomorrow.

Schools will remain open (except Vic where the school holidays will be brought forward by a few days to Tuesday). Parents may keep their kids home if they wish but they must remain home and not be roaming the streets, beaches or shopping malls. Medical advice may close the schools at a later date.

Another national meeting will be held Tuesday night to consider further measures and a strong warning if the rules are not obeyed over the next week, some draconian measures will be introduced under stage 2.

 

[amaroo]

FWIW, our year 12 student wants to attend school tomorrow. We agree, because the child is not really a child anymore, the school is doing great monitoring ... and it's year 12!

We'll see how this goes, but we're happy to proceed with Gov advice.... it has nothing to do with inconvenience of looking after a student. I'm semi retired (really doing bugger all) and the child is almost an adult.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ok, I have just read the last several pages to catch up.

A few points:

THE TARGETED SHUTDOWNS:

Contact tracing of new cases is a key plank of our strategy (Along with social distancing, handwashing etc. That is, identify any contacts they have had so that they all go into 14 day isolation to prevent further infections from occuring.. The places being shutdown our ones that are 1/ where a lot of random meetings can happen and contact tracing become a lot more difficult and 2/ These activities are mainly 'luxuries" and so add a lot of risk with no real community benefit being gained (apart from gainful employment for some)

MORTALITY RATES: See Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

• Most of the stated % rates are based on deaths / case rate and the case rate in a particular region is a highly variable from country to country, state to state, city to city etc due to a range of factors with a key one being actually how many tests have been deployed. Australia for example had done a lot of testing, whereas many countries have not.
• The actual mortality rate is unknown but in terms of either deaths /infected or deaths /total population (as not everyone will get infected) will be lower than the mortality rate determined by only looking at the case rate.
• Currents estimates are say a mortality rate of 0.5-1.0% of the infected. Lower again for the total population, but this will of course very by what % do not get affected.
• BUT the mortality rate will escalate if a country's hospitals get overwhelmed (ie Italy) as quality of car will be greatly less. ie not enough ventilators, oxygen and skilled staff and time per patient available
• The countries keeping the mortality rate down apart from the strategies discussed earlier have had the ability to provide quality hospital care
• Now not all populations are the same. For example with Italy and in particular the worst affected regions it is winter (cold), has poor air quality (from the industry) and the with the population In Italy, there are several reasons why CFR might be higher: the age structure of the Italian population (2nd oldest population in the world); highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in Europe which might contribute to increased pneumonia deaths (Italy tops the EU for antibiotic-resistance deaths with nearly 1/3rd of the deaths in the EU). Smoking also seems to be a factor associated with poor survival – in Italy, 24% smoke, 28% men. In the UK, for instance, 15% are current smokers.
• In addition some drug treatments are already being trialled including in Australia which may be "cures". As these are only be trialled a if a country's hospitalisations are very low like they are in Australia then that may suppress the mortality rate.
• Also with Australia in particular our current number of critical cases is very low and so they are getting outstanding care and attention. If our numbers spike this will not remain the case once we get beyond the number that we can provide that high level care for.

Or simply put,

1/ If we lose the ability contact trace, and isolate the infected, things may get ugly really quickly. (Today's measures are aimed at keeping that ability. Note that the PM also announced that appropriately skilled Army personnel had now been deployed into assisting with the contact tracing)

2/ The more we flatten the curve the better our hospitals can care for the critical Covid 19 patients and so the more such patients who will live.

 

[Carlton3]

Good to know lockdowns, self-isolation & mass testing can work. Just reading abot the Northern Italian town of Vo, 50km outside Venice. Italy's 1st death was in Vo. The whole town was put into Quarantine & the University of Padua tested the towns 3300 residents & found about 89 had the virus, very surprised as many didn't have any symptoms, but as none serious, didn't send any to hospital, just had the whole town self-isolate. Tested again in 2 weeks & only found about 6 still had the virus. Now the town is clear in 1 month.
Also read today, Huban in China to allow public transport to run again & allow healthy people back to work. Huban went into lockdown on 23rd January & now coming out on 23rd March. Exactly two months. Again shows lockdown, mass testing & isolation works.

 

[Lawrage]

Good to know lockdowns, self-isolation & mass testing can work. Just reading abot the Northern Italian town of Vo, 50km outside Venice. Italy's 1st death was in Vo. The whole town was put into Quarantine & the University of Padua tested the towns 3300 residents & found about 89 had the virus, very surprised as many didn't have any symptoms, but as none serious, didn't send any to hospital, just had the whole town self-isolate. Tested again in 2 weeks & only found about 6 still had the virus. Now the town is clear in 1 month.
Also read today, Huban in China to allow public transport to run again & allow healthy people back to work. Huban went into lockdown on 23rd January & now coming out on 23rd March. Exactly two months. Again shows lockdown, mass testing & isolation works.

Sad but true. Either do a full lockdown and nip it in the butt or do nothing and let it run its course.

So now we have closed the borders but its already here and spreading, people still going to work, public transport still running, businesses still refusing to let staff WFH, schools still open.

But you still have all the downsides, businesses closing, staff being laid off and unable to find work.

These half measure are really doing my head in, think I need to go back to the R u OK thread.

 

[Lawrage]

I must say its very interesting to see how different businesses handle this, as a very small example our daughter has 2 weekend activities.

The first emailed us last week saying they were closing until further notice, refunds for unused classes were on the way to us.

The other however stayed open last weekend (we didnt go) and this morning got an email to say they were closed now after the announcement on Sunday and their policy says no refunds given.

Very different ways of handling the situation.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Also read today, Huban in China to allow public transport to run again & allow healthy people back to work. Huban went into lockdown on 23rd January & now coming out on 23rd March. Exactly two months. Again shows lockdown, mass testing & isolation works.

Though with Huban they had the resources of over a billion other Chinese to support them with medical treatment , food etc. Those massive new hospitals built in very short time where due to this.

 

[RooFlyer]

So that's lock downs in:
New York
New Jersey
California
Washington (state)
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
Bangkok
Manila
Denmark
Belgium
El Salvador
Peru
Malaysia

?Relevance to 'Australian spread' thread?

 

[jase05]

Have heard that the US tourists that were self isolating in the Barossa went and hired a minibus and drove back to SYD and were trying to get a flight back to the US when the AFP nabbed them. 4 of the group are in the medical profession which is even more staggering. Hopefully the cop harsh penalties

 

[burmans]

?Relevance to 'Australian spread' thread?

Because we may have to do this also and its useful to know what others places do (and what works)?

 

[drron]

At least a big fine and put on a never to return to Australia list.