Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Well one piece of good news today was the very low number only only 8 for unknown local community transmission.

8 is the lowest numbest since the 25th June when it was 5.

VIC COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION
Source Local - Unknown Contact

DATE	CASES	DEL	NET
Mon 13 Jul	641		79
Tue 14 Jul	752		111
Wed 15 Jul	790		38
Thu 16 Jul	902		112
Fri 17 Jul	935		33
Sat 18 Jul	1,020		85
Sun 19 Jul	1,028		8

 

[JohnM]

We just took the dogs for a walk and while doing so Mr FM and I were discussing which state we would like to be in at the moment -WA was the winner

We're waving, not beckoning.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well one piece of good news today was the very low number only only 8 for unknown local community transmission.

8 is the lowest numbest since the 25th June when it was 5.

VIC COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION
Source Local - Unknown Contact

DATE	CASES	DEL	NET
Mon 13 Jul	641		79
Tue 14 Jul	752		111
Wed 15 Jul	790		38
Thu 16 Jul	902		112
Fri 17 Jul	935		33
Sat 18 Jul	1,020		85
Sun 19 Jul	1,028		8

That’s surprising low.....hope it’s not a typo

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Cases outside the restricted LGA'a today are.

Greater Gellong 5
Glenelg 1
Latrobe 1
Colac Otway 3
Horsham 1

So about the same as yesterday in total.

 

[Pushka]

What is it about the pattern of NSW infections that makes everyone more worried than what is happening in Victoria? Is it just that the one man infected so many others who then dispersed?

 

[p--and--t]

I doubt the hotel room supply is the issue, but rather that NSW may wish to use the limited supply of police, nurses, public health officials who have to supervise, test, monitor the travellers etc etc, on other aspects of controlling the pandemic at present.

Given they are conducting more than 20,000 tests per day at present not sure that 350 would be here or there but if they are worried about the number of unlinked cases in the last few days turning into a spike, fully agree.

 

[VPS]

We're waving, not beckoning.

I think my visit to WA is looking even more unlikely - what do you think?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

What is it about the pattern of NSW infections that makes everyone more worried than what is happening in Victoria? Is it just that the one man infected so many others who then dispersed?

I think one factor is because there is less restrictions and the dates are still about one week behind actual activity

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW Health data

The 18 new cases reported to 8pm include:

• one person linked to the Crossroads Hotel cluster and attended Planet Fitness gym Casula (noted in yesterday’s release)
• four people who attended the Thai Rock Restaurant in Stockland Mall Wetherill Park, and a close contact of a case who was there
• two people who are members of the same household that involved two cases reported yesterday
• one close contact of a previously reported case
• three people (including two in southern Sydney and in one in South Western Sydney) who have no identified links to known clusters
• one person remains under investigation
• five people who are overseas travellers in hotel quarantine.

They don’t seem to say when a case under investigation is suitably resolved /linked so it looks like +1 unlinked case in today’s report (the second last dot point) - making the total up to 9

 

[Gremlin]

What is it about the pattern of NSW infections that makes everyone more worried than what is happening in Victoria? Is it just that the one man infected so many others who then dispersed?

I wouldn't say they are MORE worried about NSW than Vic. To some extent Vic is a known entity. The genie is out of the bottle and there's a lot of economic and health pain to get it under control. Until today, there was probably an expectation that NSW's contact tracing was robust enough to snuff out the NSW outbreak. That may still be the case but today's figures - most cases in community in over 3 months, including multiple with no identifiable link to known clusters - makes a hard lockdown in Sydney looking substantially more likely than it did two days ago. It's not yet definitively going to happen, but we're a lot closer to it than this time Friday.

 

[p--and--t]

 

[Gremlin]

What is it about the pattern of NSW infections that makes everyone more worried than what is happening in Victoria? Is it just that the one man infected so many others who then dispersed?

...one other aspect about NSW is that it's meant to be 'normal'.

There's an extent to which what emerged in Vic was a blindside. I'm not saying that there shouldn't have been controls in place, but it hit at scale before people realised the extent of it.

In comparison, the outbreak in NSW was 'to be expected'. We were told that we'd have small scale outbreaks across the country, our test and trace programs would be able to manage them and mitigate them before they got out of control. We knew from early experiences here in Australia (Melbourne tapas restaurant, Sails at Noosa) and overseas that pubs, clubs and restaurants could be and would be flash points for the emergence of clusters. Restrictions have been very carefully considered in Hospo. So nothing from Crossroads was unexpected - it's basically what they've trained for.

We've had ScoMo, Gladys and Hazzard singing the praises of the test/trace program in NSW over the past week. But with today's figures, there's now a very real possibility NSW's test/trace capability will fall short at its very first meaningful application. That's not being blindsided by something at the periphery, that would be a failure of strategy and execution. And suppression relies on us as a country being able to execute this in exactly these circumstances.

 

[jakeseven7]

And now the virus has spread to the trendy inner suburbs of Sydney.

I suspect with the virus now knocking on the heels of the louder and more vocal, affluent Sydney siders v the distant south west suburbs, we will see more proactive action from the government. Give it a few more days... but again we are looking at 7-10 days in the past here... so imagine what happens once it hits the Bondi set (again)....

Inner Sydney Chippendale restaurant Holy Duck! among new venues hit by COVID-19 cases, as community transmission increases


NSW has recorded 18 new COVID-19 cases, including infections linked to an inner-Sydney restaurant and another gym in the western suburbs, as community transmission cases continue to rise.

Two more people in south Sydney and one in south-western Sydney have been diagnosed with no known links to clusters, sparking concerns about more undetected community transmission in the city.

Sydney court closed down after positive COVID-19 case as NSW ramps up warnings

A court in Sydney's south is closed for cleaning as warnings increase over the spread of community transmissions linked to Sydney restaurants and a gym in the western suburbs.

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report.
My bolding


Media release
19 July 2020

Victoria has recorded 363 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 5696.
The overall total has increased by 343, after 20 cases were reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 36 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 327 are under investigation. There were no cases in returned travelers in hotel quarantine.

Three new deaths have been reported since yesterday: two men in their 90s and a woman in her 90s. To date, 38 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

In Victoria at the current time:

• 1028 cases may indicate community transmission
• 2837 cases are currently active in Victoria
• 130 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 28 in intensive care
• 2819 people have recovered from the virus
• Of the total cases, 5233 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 336 are from regional Victoria
• Total cases include 2967 men and 2697 women
• More than 1,305,000 tests have been processed
• Total number of healthcare workers: 418, active cases: 166 (of which the vast majority were acquired in the community)

Cases currently linked to public housing in North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton are as follows:

• 287 cases are residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington. Investigations are continuing into how these cases are linked.
• 54 cases are residents of various public housing towers in Carlton. Investigations are continuing into if and/or how these cases are linked.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

• 169 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College
• 53 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
• 35 cases have been linked to JBS in Brooklyn
• 6 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
• 3 cases have been linked to Australian Pharmaceuticals Industries in Dandenong
• 3 cases have been linked to Dairy Country in Tullamarine
• 6 cases have been linked to Goodman Fielder Pampas in West Footscray
• 6 cases have been linked to Warringal Hospital Heidelberg
• 10 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Home for the Aged in Fawkner
• 38 cases have been linked to Estia Health in Ardeer
• 24 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care facility in Werribee
• 12 cases have been linked to Embracia Aged Care Moonee Valley in Avondale Heights
• 4 cases have been linked to Japara Central Park Aged Care in Windsor
• Three new nursing homes have reported cases, with single cases now linked to Bluecross Ruckers Hill in Northcote, Villa Maria Catholic Homes in Alphington and Japara Highbury in Glen Waverley.

Comment:

With the public housing tower cases now at 341, locking them down when they did when cases were were low in number has turned out to be most prudent. Without that lockdown and testing program the actual infections most probably would have spiralled way higher. Given the number of high risk people living there I dread to think what the death toll may have been.

 

[trevella]

Well one piece of good news today was the very low number only only 8 for unknown local community transmission.

That’s a really strange number to take comfort from given that 327/363 are still being investigated.

 

[Pushka]

This is pretty cool!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1259804672455557120

 

[drron]

I also think one thing that hasn't been mentioned in the current outbreaks which may be important is the source of the virus.
Early on when the initial genomic studies were done it was reported that Australia initially had the cCinese mutation of the virus and later on the European/US mutation.By the time the European mutation reached here we had implemented quarantine.Seeing these outbreaks began with a failure in quarantine I suspect it is the European mutation we now have. Certainly it does appear that those countries infected earlier with the Chinese mutation have done better than those with the European mutation.Though the ones that have done better are also usually the ones with more effective border closures.

Particularly that looks so with the USA.The initial infections were the Chinese mutation on the West Coast which didn't fare as badly as NYC which was predominantly the European mutation which is now the source of 65-75% of the USA infections.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That’s a really strange number to take comfort from given that 327/363 are still being investigated.

Not when at the same stage yesterday the unknown was much higher and the still under investigated was also large.

So comparing apples and apples it is down.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

.Seeing these outbreaks began with a failure in quarantine I suspect it is the European mutation we now have.

So far the only thing I have heard mentioned is that most Victorian (and hence NSW most likely too) spring from one or two sources from the hotel security guards and that this is known from the genomic sequencing. The people they caught it from have not been mentioned, but no doubt those doing the genomonic sequencing , and by now the key staff at the various public health authorities, will have a good idea of the country or countries it came from.

However in the publicly available information I have seen naught on it. Also I have not seen any clarification as to whether the two hotels that infection spring from had security guards at one infecting the other, or whether each had there own patient zero (if so they it may have come from two different countries).

At the likely time of patient zero there would have been travellers from many countries passing through the hotels. By then Australian Indian Residents were returning en masse and there were also repatriation flights from South America. Plus a smattering from all over.

So which mutation we have would be interesting to know, but it could have come from many countries. and indeed continents.

 

[get me outta here]

worries!



NSW Police Force

A man has been charged after attempting to flee hotel quarantine when he was caught leaving his room for a cigarette today.
About 2.35am (Sunday 19 July 2020), a 28-year-old man currently completing a mandatory, 14-day quarantine period at a hotel on Macquarie Street, Sydney, was seen attempting to leave his room by security.
After being advised to return to his room, the man refused, and attempted to leave the hotel via the lift when he was stopped by police.
After a short, physical struggle with officers, the man was restrained and returned to his hotel room.
The Queensland man will be served a Future Court Attendance Notice for the offences of resist police officer in execution of duty and failing to comply with the Public Health Act Order.
Police will allege the man breached the 14-day mandatory quarantine required to be completed by returned international travellers, as per the Public Health (COVID-19 Air Transportation Quarantine) Order 2020.