Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[tgh]

Easing restrictions will be a massive call with devastating consequences if it is too soon or too fast.
The challenge is the long incubation period , if you get it wrong the genie is not just out but has bred like a rabbit.
There will soon be pressure, we have an example here on AFF already….

I would bet on weekend breaks.
The challenge is the long incubation period , if you get it wrong the genie is not just out but has bred like a rabbit

Let everyone out and open some pubs and clubs beaches parks under tight distancing controls for one weekend , wait for a bit and see if we get a blip.
If that works , do it again and then progressively release restrictions.

It allows folks something to look forward to while keeping them engaged in the main game.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I feel a little more exposed as my partner is an ICU nurse at RPA and my best friend a registrar at the same... but the reports I’m getting are of a hospital system that is becoming well and truly overcooked without a sign of the guests arriving. The risk at the moment seems to be people suffering from deferred surgery while rooms sit empty.

I agree the feedback I am getting from my medical friends and relatives is that things are on the quiet side.

On the "guests" arriving it also though depends which facility one is at as the number of "guests" are low and are more going to some facilities simply as our case loads are so low.

Certainly in my daughter's respiratory ward there are some "guests" but balancing that other patients who would normally need ventilators are significantly down making the ward overall quieter than normal. ie There are less people now presenting with severe asthma symptoms and less people being road trauma. Both probably down due the current stay at home practices.

Early on asthma sufferers were down, but severity was up as some people were presenting for care later than they should be due their fear of catching CV 19.

On the upside it means that all CV19 "guests" are getting truly outstanding care and also that the "hosts" (Doctors, nurses, orderlies and even the ward cleaners) are not getting the viral loads that their Italian and NY colleagues are getting.

 

[p--and--t]

A premonition of mine from the very beginning is coming true very quickly. The government will never win with some people.

If they came in hard with restrictions and avert a disaster, all those naysayers will come out of the woodwork and say we told you we had nothing to worry about and look at all that money and activity wasted and infringement of our rights.

If they didn't treat it seriously and to some extent let it rip they would go down in history as irresponsible incompetent capitalists who let tens of thousands of people die for a balanced budget.

 

[dajop]

Singapore perhaps is a good case study for several months there were few local transmissions, but in the last week local transmissions have "exploded" for some reason (relative to previous figures in SG, but not relative to what is happening in the virus epicentres though). Some of that is associated with the cramped living conditions of foreign labourers, but still a lot of community transmission going on elsewhere. Only in the last few days they have gone into "Stay at home" type conditions, more than a week after Australia. Time will tell.

 

[Pushka]

A premonition of mine from the very beginning is coming true very quickly. The government will never win with some people.

If they came in hard with restrictions and avert a disaster, all those naysayers will come out of the woodwork and say we told you we had nothing to worry about and look at all that money and activity wasted and infringement of our rights.

If they didn't treat it seriously and to some extent let it rip they would go down in history as irresponsible incompetent capitalists who let tens of thousands of people die for a balanced budget.

And that is exactly the situation with preventive policy.

 

[JohnM]

And that is exactly the situation with preventive policy.

An uncontrolled (ie. in the statistical sense, not in the berserk sense) experiment with zero replication.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A premonition of mine from the very beginning is coming true very quickly. The government will never win with some people.

If they came in hard with restrictions and avert a disaster, all those naysayers will come out of the woodwork and say we told you we had nothing to worry about and look at all that money and activity wasted and infringement of our rights.

If they didn't treat it seriously and to some extent let it rip they would go down in history as irresponsible incompetent capitalists who let tens of thousands of people die for a balanced budget.

It is a bit like with the Y2K Bug. Because the vast majority of countries and organisations knew it was a problem and acted in time it was not the problem it could have been.

With the "CV19 Bug" there is a stark difference between the countries who acted in time (even if a little late) and with those that sat on their hands too long. Though sadly there are some poorer countries that just do not have the resources, infrastructure, living conditions etc to greatly limit its effect.

 

[Cossie]

It is a bit like with the Y2K Bug. Because the vast majority of countries and organisations knew it was a problem and acted in time it was not the problem it could have been.

With the "CV19 Bug" there is a stark difference between the countries who acted in time (even if a little late) and with those that sat on their hands too long. Though sadly there are some poorer countries that just do not have the resources, infrastructure, living conditions etc to greatly limit its effect.

Agree, our organisation put in a hell of a lot of effort to avoid a meltdown, compounded with this was the separating of one of the major sections from the other, they both used to share the same resources, but one had to get it's own system.

The only real problem we has was that when one of the CICs systems was brought up on the first, the date was 01/01/1900. That had slipped through during the separation.

 

[Himeno]

Canberra has recorded no new cases today. But they are also starting random testing today, might be a spike in confirmed cases a few days.

If more states increase testing outside the guidelines, will there be a large increase in cases, or is "community spread" largely not happening and contained in the areas it has been?

 

[Pushka]

Canberra has recorded no new cases today. But they are also starting random testing today, might be a spike in confirmed cases a few days.

If more states increase testing outside the guidelines, will there be a large increase in cases, or is "community spread" largely not happening and contained in the areas it has been?

SA has been testing at a high rate. Only two yesterday. Not heard today.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Canberra has recorded no new cases today. But they are also starting random testing today, might be a spike in confirmed cases a few days.

If more states increase testing outside the guidelines, will there be a large increase in cases, or is "community spread" largely not happening and contained in the areas it has been?

Though cases in itself does not really mean anything as a measure as it is so reliant on the quantity of testing down. What is a case is a bit rubbery around the world.

ie We would have had some "cases" that were not cases simply because the infection person was say isolating at home, or even in quarantine.


However it should give is a handle on how widespread infection has been. The more tests, the greater the accuracy.

Once the 15 minute test are rolled out it will give us an even better ide. Though anyone testing positive with an antibody test will then need the standard test to see if they are in the incubation and transmission phase still or have recovered. If not recovered they would then become a case.


We do know that our hospitalisations though are very low, and those needed icu beds is exceptionally low compared t most developed countries. Those that are really sick would get tested. These last two measures would suggest that "community spread" is largely not happening and contained.

The contact tracing would suggest that as well.

 

[jase05]

4 Qantas crew who flew on a repatriation flight from Chile and who were exempt from quarantine have now tested positive

Qantas crew exempt from quarantine have tested positive for COVID-19

Four Qantas crew members who operated a flight from Chile and did not have to go into quarantine have tested positive for coronavirus.

amp.smh.com.au

 

[Pushka]

4 Qantas crew who flew on a repatriation flight from Chile and who were exempt from quarantine have now tested positive

Qantas crew exempt from quarantine have tested positive for COVID-19

Four Qantas crew members who operated a flight from Chile and did not have to go into quarantine have tested positive for coronavirus.

amp.smh.com.au

I understand the exemption but was thinking this would apply to foreign crew who stay isolated in their hotels until they depart again. This makes a mockery of the isolation concept.

 

[OZDUCK]

The latest W.A. figures show once again the effect of cruise ships.

Unfortunately there was 1 death of an 84 year old man who had been a pax on the Ruby Princess. 7 new cases altogether with 6 being passengers from other cruise ships including one from the Artania (the German cruise ship that made an emergency stop at Fremantle). The 7th case is from a returning overseas traveler who was still in isolation. So still little community spread.

 

[serfty]

The graph is for daily new diagnosed cases. If it reaches zero that does not mean no-one has COVID-19.

Towards at the end of the ABC document is the important figure:

However, assuming recoveries are not limited to only four jurisdictions, the national number of confirmed current cases is less than 4,945.

COVID-19 is not beaten until that is close to zero (I doubt it will be zero in the next few years).

And today:

the national number of confirmed current cases is less than 4,879.

 

[p--and--t]

Canberra has recorded no new cases today. But they are also starting random testing today, might be a spike in confirmed cases a few days.

If more states increase testing outside the guidelines, will there be a large increase in cases, or is "community spread" largely not happening and contained in the areas it has been?

That's the million dollar question the public health officials will be sweating on before there is any action towards reducing current restrictions.

 

[Pushka]

South Australia's first death last night of a 75 year old male who attended a large wedding in Victoria where visitors came from Italy. I believe he had been in ICU and critical for some time.

 

[serfty]

The graph is for daily new diagnosed cases. If it reaches zero that does not mean no-one has COVID-19.

Towards at the end of the ABC document is the important figure:

However, assuming recoveries are not limited to only four jurisdictions, the national number of confirmed current cases is less than 4,945.

COVID-19 is not beaten until that is close to zero (I doubt it will be zero in the next few years).

And today:

the national number of confirmed current cases is less than 4,879.

Big change in the way recovered cases are being reported - figure now coming from the Federal Government.
So, for Tuesday 7th:

Across Australia, 2,432 people have recovered, according to federal government figures.

This means 3,418 confirmed cases are still current.

 

[Pushka]

And today:Big change in the way recovered cases are being reported - figure now coming from the Federal Government.
So, for Tuesday 7th:

Yes, they said in SA that a person was only recorded as recovered if a second test had been done. Clearly this isn't done routinely for obvious reasons.

 

[drron]

Yes, they said in SA that a person was only recorded as recovered if a second test had been done. Clearly this isn't done routinely for obvious reasons.

To be sure a second test probably should be done as some of the tests have a high false negative rate-ie test says negative even though you really are positive.Plus why a second negative test when you have symptoms is much more reassuring than 1 negative test.
The reports of people relapsing or being re infected possibly due to this problem.