Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[DC3]

... By end of April one would imagine that various activities that have been ceased or slowed will be allowed to recommence ...

Three weeks time? I would be expecting for a longer period than that. How long, well I can’t really say, but this certainly needs be well monitored.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Layman's interpretation. This is quite good news then?

I think it is extremely good news. I think we are well exceeding what any of the experts would have been hoping for.


The vast majority of Australians have embraced social distancing with gusto.

Then turning off the international CV19 tap by quarantining all incoming has been the icing in on the cake. While we can all cough and moan by and large measures such as restricting and then banning international flights, social distancing, closing down gatherings, restaurants , etc were all down in a reasonably timely manner which has also halted CV 19 being spread.

Cannot relax just yet but another fortnight of this and then yes a progressive reactivation can start occurring including in our hospitals. But yes retain good habits and practices.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Three weeks time? I would be expecting for a longer period than that. How long, well I can’t really say, but this certainly needs be well monitored.

I am not saying all at once. But a progressive and staged reactivation.

On the current trend for example in 3 weeks our hospitals are going to have very few patients and only a very small number of recovering CV19 patients.

 

[moa999]

NSW charts only as not every state provides similar data

While the overall charts are showing a significant reduction, if you strip out the overseas/ cruise ship cases the decline is not as dramatic (only the last three days show a decline)

 

[burmans]

Three weeks time? I would be expecting for a longer period than that. How long, well I can’t really say, but this certainly needs be well monitored.

I'm with lovetravellinginoz that there will be some sort of relaxation if the trend continues but I do think it will be very gradual. My view is that the best way to relax this is one thing at a time and monitor for a period, if it works try relaxing something else. If not reimpose measure 1 and try another option. So, yes, close monitoring required as we gradually relax.

 

[burmans]

That's a bit wierd as this site (the NSW Health site) shows a more obvious decline over last week.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well wife just back from her daily walk and she chatted with our neighbour who has three very active primary school aged boys.

A bit of push and shove today with the result that one is now missing a few teeth!!!!

So an emergency dash to the local dentist. Dentist was there and agreed to treat, but no other staff and so mum had to act as the Dental Assistant

 

[DC3]

A neighbour has recently completed the 14-day self isolation after returning from overseas. Just made it back before the enforced hotel thing.

Anyway, the neighbour wants to be tested, to be on the safe side, to make sure that all is well. He can’t find anywhere that will agree to test him as he doesn’t meet the ‘criteria’ (no obvious symptoms).

Edit: I recall reading somewhere: Test. Test. Test.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The unknown at present is if there are unknown cases out in the community. However while not everyone will develop symptoms and so even the unknown spreaders would have symptomatic people showing up.

We have very few such people now, and so true unknown spreaders are likely to be rare. But yes they will act fora time as if they are there. The 15 minute test will no doubt be used to sample test to see how many unknown infected there truly are as % of the population.

Note though that that test shows people who have had it, and not people who have it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A neighbour has recently completed the 14-day self isolation after returning from overseas. Just made it back before the enforced hotel thing.

Anyway, the neighbour wants to be tested, to be on the safe side, to make sure that all is well.

Unfortunately the reagents for test are in short supply.

If he has quarantined for 14 days and has no current symptoms he is already on the safe side.

If he does not have it the main test is pointless as it will show nothing. So it is only the antibody test that would show if he had had it.

He can’t find anywhere that will agree to test him as he doesn’t meet the ‘criteria’ (no obvious symptoms).

Edit: I recall reading somewhere: Test. Test. Test.

We are all curious if we have had it or not. But curious is a want and not a need. He just needs to wait like the rest of us.

 

[drron]

Unfortunately, Tasmania has had a community 'break-out' - from the NW General Hospital (6 staff infected, plus a few patients etc). Small-ish numbers by national standards, but 9 new cases yesterday, a record for the state, I think.

Lots of warnings about not travelling over Easter. I really hope none of my shackie neighbours come as I'll be torn whether to report them or not. There's only 1 road in north and south, and I expect (hope) the cops will be on it, turning non-residents away.

The police are setting up on the roads out of Lonnie for the weekend to question drivers as to why they are on the road.

 

[RooFlyer]

Anyway, the neighbour wants to be tested, to be on the safe side, to make sure that all is well. He can’t find anywhere that will agree to test him as he doesn’t meet the ‘criteria’ (no obvious symptoms).

Edit: I recall reading somewhere: Test. Test. Test.

Advise your neighbour to join the queue. Its a very long one.

 

[DC3]

Unfortunately the reagents for test are in short supply ......We are all curious if we have had it or not. But curious is a want and not a need. He just needs to wait like the rest of us.

Yes. We are meant to understand this. The neighbour was just trying to do the right thing by everyone.

“Test. Test. Test”

Post automatically merged: Apr 8, 2020

The police are setting up on the roads out of Lonnie for the weekend to question drivers as to why they are on the road.

Good. But where is there to go?

 

[RooFlyer]

“Test. Test. Test”

I think you've got the wrong country.

Good. But where is there to go?

You're such a card.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The neighbour was just trying to do the right thing by everyone.

The right thing for everybody is not to seek an unnecessary test. The guidelines are set and if he does not meet them he is just wasting people's time.
There have probably been tens of thousands of returned travellers in the same boat. Maybe ever many times that.



All returned travellers go into isolation/quarantine and only get tested if they are symptomatic. No symptoms in the 14 days, and they are healthy CV19-wise.

Him being tested now does not make us more safe. It actually means that we are less safe as a test in limited supply is wasted on him rather than on a person that should be tested..

Eventually there may be enough of the 15 minute test for him to find out.


Test, test, test means testing in a prioritised way, and not just on those that want to know.

ie for where the Doctors need to know, and where the epidemiologists may wish to do some controlled sampling to calculate spread etc.

 

[DC3]

Test. Test. Test.

Speaking on ABC's Radio National, GP and former federal MP Kerryn Phelps said "if you don't look, you don't find".

"We need to know where the cases are," Dr Phelps said. "To do that, we need to test."

"Then we can find individual areas and identify clusters to get data and help stop the spread."

Experts set to plan Australia's 'way out' of coronavirus crisis within weeks

As the country enters its fourth week of physical-distancing measures — resulting in a gradual flattening of the curve — health experts begin contemplating the "next phase" of Australia's response to the coronavirus pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

 

[serfty]

So, for Tuesday 7th:

Across Australia, 2,432 people have recovered, according to federal government figures.

This means 3,418 confirmed cases are still current.

Decrease in "active cases" Wednesday 8th:

Across Australia, 2,813 people have recovered, according to federal government figures.

This means 3,152 confirmed cases are still current.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Test. Test. Test.

Speaking on ABC's Radio National, GP and former federal MP Kerryn Phelps said "if you don't look, you don't find".

"We need to know where the cases are," Dr Phelps said. "To do that, we need to test."

"Then we can find individual areas and identify clusters to get data and help stop the spread."

Experts set to plan Australia's 'way out' of coronavirus crisis within weeks

As the country enters its fourth week of physical-distancing measures — resulting in a gradual flattening of the curve — health experts begin contemplating the "next phase" of Australia's response to the coronavirus pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

What they are getting at is they want to do more work on where the unknown cases are coming from where they do not know who the spreader was. Specifically the cases where the infections are not linked to travellers.


If they want to test returned travellers they know where to find them, and if they do they would do it in a scientific way rather than just randoms presenting.

 

[dajop]

We are all curious if we have had it or not. But curious is a want and not a need. He just needs to wait like the rest of us.

I'm curious too, and I probably meet the criteria as well (returned from overseas, have an intermittent sore throat).

But given I've had the sore throat (and only other symptom being tiredness) intermittently since late Jan, and had a positive diagnosis early Feb for another illness that causes a sore throat (and received treatment for but told it is likely to return and could take up to 6 months to shake), I'm not going to visit a place to get tested, where there are people who are more likely to actually be ill with the virus.

 

[amaroo]

Test. Test. Test.

Speaking on ABC's Radio National, GP and former federal MP Kerryn Phelps said "if you don't look, you don't find".

"We need to know where the cases are," Dr Phelps said. "To do that, we need to test."

"Then we can find individual areas and identify clusters to get data and help stop the spread."

Experts set to plan Australia's 'way out' of coronavirus crisis within weeks

As the country enters its fourth week of physical-distancing measures — resulting in a gradual flattening of the curve — health experts begin contemplating the "next phase" of Australia's response to the coronavirus pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

When you have a world shortage of test, you test where it makes sense. That's the call made by the decision makers. People placed in the cheap seats, should just go with the flow. There's already sufficient noise filling the space, no need for any more background rubbish.

* I've known KP since the late 80's, met her at a Mosman gym called the physical factory - she ran a good circuit class.... for an added bonus, that's where I met Hugh Jackman - he worked the front counter