Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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Weeks ago i said it was too early for Gyms, Churches and Pokie venues to be open - and if you look at the NSW growth over the past few days you see gyms, churches & religious schools featuring heavily.
 
A case in a Victorian who frequently crossed into NSW as a resident of the Albury-Wodonga border community has brought two NSW residents into self-isolation, Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant told reporters on Friday.

I would say this may delay further easing of restrictions for Vic NSW border communities.

And yet this is a map of the current distribution. There are no cases in Wodonga.

 
And yet this is a map of the current distribution. There are no cases in Wodonga.



Though that is current to yeterdays' data (27th). The DHHS local data (by LGA/postcode) normally comes out in the afternoon, whereas the state total is normally in the morning.
 
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Weeks ago i said it was too early for Gyms, Churches and Pokie venues to be open - and if you look at the NSW growth over the past few days you see gyms, churches & religious schools featuring heavily.

Going to have to open at some time and the current levels seem manageable so far.... we are going to have to live with this.

A case in a Victorian who frequently crossed into NSW as a resident of the Albury-Wodonga border community has brought two NSW residents into self-isolation, Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant told reporters on Friday.

I would say this may delay further easing of restrictions for Vic NSW border communities.

I think NSW and VIC are the most level headed states, I don't think they are going to jump at shadows, there is always always going to be some leakage, its impossible to stop.
 
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A case in a Victorian who frequently crossed into NSW as a resident of the Albury-Wodonga border community has brought two NSW residents into self-isolation, Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant told reporters on Friday.

I would say this may delay further easing of restrictions for Vic NSW border communities.
Perhaps.

Its a known case linkage and not potential community transmission. Secondly regional Vic and NSW (Sydney) are roughly the same active cases - arguably Sydney has more community transmission.
 
Weeks ago i said it was too early for Gyms, Churches and Pokie venues to be open - and if you look at the NSW growth over the past few days you see gyms, churches & religious schools featuring heavily.
Only if you believe total eradication and elimination of the virus to be a realistic and attainable goal
 
Weeks ago i said it was too early for Gyms, Churches and Pokie venues to be open - and if you look at the NSW growth over the past few days you see gyms, churches & religious schools featuring heavily.
Only one is a proven transmission location - the City Tattersalls gym. I feel the marshall idea didn’t work so well.

The others are not yet proven transmission points. According to the church in question they required mandatory masks. School are open and attendance is mandatory.
 
In Vic the positivity rate has been roughly 0.5% the last two days, the lowest since early July. So this is another good sign in addition to the case rate trend.
 
In Vic the positivity rate has been roughly 0.5% the last two days, the lowest since early July. So this is another good sign in addition to the case rate trend.
Question really is, now what?

Talking to people at work and friends, I can see no appetite for a return to this kind of lockdown, no matter what. There's a one time good will credit from the public that the Victorian government has now seemed to have spent...
 
Question really is, now what?

Talking to people at work and friends, I can see no appetite for a return to this kind of lockdown, no matter what. There's a one time good will credit from the public that the Victorian government has now seemed to have spent...



Well that is probably one reason why they have indicated that restrictions will not be eased (or at least substantially eased) until cases are so low that another immediate third wave would be most unlikely. ( Ignoring that like in NZ that some future wave will probably happen sooner or later).

They are yet to define what that means. My guess is they will be shooting for zero cases, or at least that is what they are strongly hoping is achievable. The cases curve is steadily decreasing, but may well become asymptotic at some stage. If so the longer that drags out the more likely that the Vic Gov would have to ease some restrictions. But if so if you have had say a fortnight of single digit cases it would mean that contact tracing resources etc will have caught up.

The now what will largely depend on how quickly the daily cases drop to minimal, or even zero, levels. The current trend provides good hope that within a fortnight that new cases per day will be low, maybe even very low.

However I think one learning from both Vic and NZ second waves is that any re-emergence needs to be jumped on quickly. If this is done quickly then measures can be more localised and less draconian. In Vic unfortunately the Gov kept waiting at each step till the data was clear, and that meant we just keep chasing horses that had bolted.


When they do start to ease restrictions I would imagine that it will in stages. Plus I would hope that they retain public mask wearing for a while just so that there is that extra universal measure in place to help limit transmission. Mask wearing is an easy control that really is not that big an inconvenience.
 
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Only if you believe total eradication and elimination of the virus to be a realistic and attainable goal

Nope, I do not think eradication nor elimination are likely without a widely available vaccine.

But I do think higher risk venues such as:
1. Gyms where there are people breathing heavily in an enclosed space with air con moving those extra droplets around;
2. Places of worship where people sing, shake hands, eat from the hands of priests, drink form communion cups, hug and have a false sense that their imaginary overlord int he sky will protect tehm etc
3. Pokies venues where people are drinking and moving form machine to machine without sanitising in between

should be the first places to be closed when there are localised outbreaks,

and that masks should be mandatory on all forms of public transport.

This will help keep numbers manageable, whilst allowing the main parts of the economy to open up.
 
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Weeks ago i said it was too early for Gyms, Churches and Pokie venues to be open - and if you look at the NSW growth over the past few days you see gyms, churches & religious schools featuring heavily.
It is entirely dependent on the state. Gyms have been opened in SA for months now. Schools never closed except for a week just before April school holidays. Not sure about churches because I dont venture inside.

Now, that does of course take me back to the situation where Masked Singer was allowable as a production under Stage 4 when they continued to have high amp dancers in a closed studio.
 
Mask wearing is an easy control that really is not that big an inconvenience.

Wait until summer comes and the whingers will be out in force around mask wearing being so so much harder in summer. :rolleyes:

(FWIW, I've jumped from wearing mask in regional Vic earlier this month with maximums some day only reaching 10 degrees, to wearing masks in "32 (feels like 39)" type of tropical heat in Singapore, and I found it is no more difficult in the heat than in the cold, of course YMMV).
 
I don't think there is any need to be worried anymore we have to be practical, it appears that community transmission is now bedding itself in SE QLD and do you know what, we just have to buckle down and live it it. Like NSW and soon to be joined by VIC when they emerge from stage 4.

We have multiple strains, several mystery cases and not all can be genomicly linked - which means it is going to bubble away now. But thats ok, we just have to manage it the best we can and operate as safely as possible.
Nope, I do not think eradication nor elimination are likely without a widely available vaccine.

But I do think higher risk venues such as:
1. Gyms where there are people breathing heavily in an enclosed space with air con moving those extra droplets around;
2. Places of worship where people sing, shake hands, eat from the hands of priests, drink form communion cups, hug and have a false sense that their imaginary overlord int he sky will protect tehm etc
3. Pokies venues where people are drinking and moving form machine to machine without sanitising in between

should be the first places to be closed when there are localised outbreaks,

and that masks should be mandatory on all forms of public transport.

This will help keep numbers manageable, whilst allowing the main parts of the economy to open up.
I tend to think of them as "higher" risk activities rather than high-risk. More than 99% of them are open in NSW employing and serving people's needs (though I've no love for pokies).
NSW Health seem to be managing the low-level cases currently. If you restrict activities to only the perceived ultra-safe, you can end up limiting quality of life disproportionately to the actual risk.
Unfortunately, many activities are being stopped (eg school sport, bands) as the powers that be are worried they will be heavily criticised if there are any associated cases.
 
Gyms are probably lower risk as most people only attend one, though possibly they need to look at instructors who like security guards and nursing staff tend to move around.
 
Gyms are probably lower risk as most people only attend one, though possibly they need to look at instructors who like security guards and nursing staff tend to move around.

Stopped going a few years ago because of my own observations of what went on there. Among other things, a hotbed of sweaty bodies leaving body fluids everywhere, heavy breathing, duration times of 45min-several hours, constant reuse of the same equipment, often poor hygiene practices both by attendees and management (aka rampant tinea cases)



 
Gyms are probably lower risk as most people only attend one, though possibly they need to look at instructors who like security guards and nursing staff tend to move around.
I note the Balgowlah Fitness First had a 3-hour stay. Seems more likely to be an instructor than a member.
 
A case in a Victorian who frequently crossed into NSW as a resident of the Albury-Wodonga border community has brought two NSW residents into self-isolation, Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant told reporters on Friday.

I would say this may delay further easing of restrictions for Vic NSW border communities.

And yet this is a map of the current distribution. There are no cases in Wodonga.



That graphic was as of the 27th. Today's (as of the 28th) new cases are now out by LGA and there are still none listed for Wodonga.
Wodonga is still shown as zero active cases.


 
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