Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[moa999]

for whatever reason the suburb hotspot Didn’t seem to work given normal movements i

I think the key lesson is you need to move quickly the minute you even think a lockdown might be needed.

To date we've been too late on
- stopping cruises
- closing the border to tourists
- implementing quarantine
Etc. All discussed in the press for days before the decision was taken.

Even the postcode lockdowns in Melbourne were too late, they possibly got the towers right.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, but for whatever reason the suburb hotspot Didn’t seem to work given normal movements in cities (MELb, Syd, SE QLD)

It was brought in too late to confine and halt it to just the hotspot locations, though it did stop it from being even worse that it became (see below to see where it was heading).

By the time it was done community spread was active outside the hotspots.

 

[p--and--t]

they possibly got the towers right.

Agreed. But seemingly got the biggest backlash from the populace and media as if it was somehow more unfair than locking down a whole city of 5m because of the actions of a few hundred

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Even the postcode lockdowns in Melbourne were too late, they possibly got the towers right.

Yes and yes.

The apartment towers and the NZ second wave both demonstrate the benefit of speed to act.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It was brought in too late to confine and halt it to just the hotspot locations, though it did stop it from being even worse that it became (see below to see where it was heading).

By the time it was done community spread was active outside the hotspots.

View attachment 226439

Does the graph doesn’t show the postcode hotspot date?

Do you have a graph that shows unknown source transmission and the relevant dates of action?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Does the graph doesn’t show the postcode hotspot date?

Do you have a graph that shows unknown source transmission and the relevant dates of action?

I don't have a graph of all the measures. But wiki has a pretty good timeline summary of the controls. Note that when controls were announced that measures often took effect upto several days later. Or evena a week with some measures.

Victoria
On 10 March, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews warned Victorians to expect "extreme measures" in the wake of the federal government updating the travel advice for Italy.[48] These could include cancelling major sporting events, requiring entire economic sectors to work from home, and calling recently retired health professionals to return to work.[49]

On 16 March, a state of emergency was declared to 13 April.[50] It was extended on 12 April to 11 May,[185] with existing directions remaining in place including staying at home, restrictions on particular activities, detention, restrictions on airports and cruise ships, aged care, hospitals and isolation for people diagnosed with COVID-19.[citation needed] It was extended further on 11 May to 31 May,[citation needed] and again on 19 July to 16 August.[125]

On 22 March, the school holiday was brought forward from 27 to 24 March.[186]

On 14 April 2020, Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos announced that Victoria will have the widest coronavirus testing in Australia, with anyone having COVID-19 symptoms able to get tested.[187] Those who present fever or chills in the absence of any other alternative diagnosis that explains the issue or acute respiratory infection that is characterised by cough, sore throat or shortness of breath should be tested for coronavirus.[188]

On 20 June, the Victorian Government re-tightened restrictions on household gatherings following a spike in community transmitted cases over the previous week, reported to be mainly caused by family-to-family transmission in large household gatherings. From June 22, households can once again only have five visitors; and most easing of restrictions that were to take place were postponed.[111]

On 30 June, the Victorian Government re-enforced local lockdowns across 10 different Melbourne postcodes. Residents there will need to comply with the four acceptable reasons to leave their houses: shopping for essentials; for medical or compassionate needs; exercise in compliance with the public gathering restriction of two people; and for work or education purposes.[113]

On 4 July, the Victorian Government announced two more postcodes affected by the lockdown until 29 July 2020.[117] Nine public housing towers housing 3,000 residents were also added, with the additional condition that residents cannot leave the tower under any circumstances for five days, with the possibility of an extension to 14 days.[118]

On 6 July, the Victorian and NSW state Governments announced that their interstate border would be re-closed from the start of 8 July.[120]

On 7 July, after recording 191 new cases, Premier Andrews announced that metropolitan Melbourne and the Shire of Mitchell would re-enter lockdown from 12am on 9 July, for 6 weeks.[121]

On 19 July, following a "… concerning increase in coronavirus cases …", Premier Andrews announced that "face coverings" were to be made mandatory in metropolitan Melbourne, and Mitchell Shire. This was not enforced until after 11.59pm on Wednesday 22 July to allow the populace time to acquire a face covering.[125] In addition, the State of Emergency in Victoria was extended until 11.59pm on 16 August 2020, to allow for the enforcement of this, and other, public health directions.[125]

From 22 July, as the chance of coronavirus infection remains high in aged care/ health care settings, visitations are restricted to carers only, and with a limit of one hour per day.[125]

From 23 July, the requirement for "face coverings" in metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire, whenever residents leave their homes, became effective. A fine of A$200 will apply to those not complying, though there are medical and other exemptions, such as not being required for children under 12 years of age.[125]

On 2 August a state of disaster was declared in Victoria from 6pm that day. Restrictions were to be tightened including a curfew across Melbourne from 8pm to 5am starting immediately. Melbourne moved to stage 4 and regional Victoria to stage 3 restrictions.[130]

 

[love_the_life]

Victoria new cases under 100 today is good news thought there will be fluctuations, Deaths should start to come down eventually but always a lag,

 

[jakeseven7]

I wonder how many infections a day that Australia is ok to deal with to resume a post covid life. Back in March there was an anticipated thousands of people in ICU pretty much in every state. Never came close to maybe 100 at one time Australia wide. While the number of infections in Europe has increased, I read today that the illness doesnt seem as serious and is requiring less hospital intervention. In reality, other than the Nursing Home dire situation, possibly that has also been the case with the second wave Victoria situation. We simply beat Europe to the second wave.

We need to get QLD past their state election before there is any real sensible national discussion, publicly at least.

One hopes behind closed doors more practical conversations are taking place.

I suspect through their experience that NSW/ACT and VIC will open up pre Xmas with aligned approaches on numbers management and that will be a huge step forward. TAS maybe out of sheer necessity- they have taken first step by electing to participate in the Federal pandemic support package which says something. Then once QLD has caught up I suspect the whole eastern seaboard will be on some form of a same page.

I think the tolerable case numbers are one things but the % of unknown sources are potentially much more important and we need to get pretty calm about operating in the grey for a while yet I think.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I would hazard a guess many suburbs would have dozens and dozens of entry/exit points (including through back/side fence one house to another).

A myriad of reasons why it would be valid to cross the boundary (shopping doctors xray dentists work chemist post-office hospital bank) almost impossible to police.

Easier to close borders than a suburb and less voter backlash

Yes a lot harder to enforce than state borders due the much more porous borders, roads etc. Plus complications such as public transport crossing them. However most people would have followed the measures. Slower spread then also means that contact tracing does not get overwhelmed and so ca work better etc.

Hotspot controls can and do work. Indeed even in Vic they have worked. But they would have worked better if they had of been brought in earlier.

Using hostpot controls rather than whole of state measure also means a lot less economic damage.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW’s headline number is 14 cases including 1 in quarantine

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW’s headline number is 14 cases including 1 in quarantine

So 10 known, 3 unknown community spread cases.


New daily average cases and growth in NSW based on 7 day averages.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So 10 known, 3 unknown community spread cases.


New daily average cases and growth in NSW based on 7 day averages.

View attachment 226446

10 linked to known cases
3 under incestigation

The City Tattersalls cluster is now 23.

NSW Health is investigating whether this cluster originated at City Tattersalls and have gone back a few days - all visitors 4-18 August get tested and isolate while waiting test, no need to do 14 days regardless

 

[jb747]

Since the pandemic started Wodonga has had 2 cases.

One on 6 July and one on 27 July. So not exactly a hotspot

Also if I am reading the NSW data correctly Albury has had 11 cases. So maybe the Wodongans need to be more worried about the Alburians


Caveat. Cases can be recorded at a different address than where the person may be. But given that there has only been two cases it is a pretty fair assumption that cases in Wodonga are rare.

Apparently North East Health has claimed that neither of the two cases were detected by them. So, if that's correct, I guess it would mean people with Wodonga on their driver's licence, but they were elsewhere when CV became an issue. Either way, negligible cases, and certainly the economic damage being done locally is out of all proportion to the cases.

The problem is that it takes a great deal more political courage to remove the closures, than it does to put them on in the first place. Installing them is just going with the flow...no thought required.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld reports 4 news cases, all linked to existing outbreak

 

[dajop]

Agreed. But seemingly got the biggest backlash from the populace and media as if it was somehow more unfair than locking down a whole city of 5m because of the actions of a few hundred

Also more unfair to not allow people in quarantine access to fresh air everyday - than lockdown 5m people. If peoplein quarantine had not been allowed to leave their rooms - or only leave every third day - exposure would have been significantly reduced. Less security guards would have been required. At one hotel they mentioned 70 guards congregated in a room. That’s a lot to have on duty at any one time!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Some new locations mentioned in NSW Health media release

New COVID-19 cases have visited the following locations in Mosman, St Ives and Rosebery and people attending at the same time must monitor for symptoms, get tested immediately if they develop and stay isolated until a negative test result is received:

• Archie Bear café, Mosman Rowers - 24 August 11am to 12 noon and Tuesday 25 August 9:00am to 9.30am
• Rosebery Post Shop, 371 Gardeners Rd, Rosebery - 26 August 1:30pm-1:40pm
• St Ives Shopping Centre, 166 Mona Vale Rd, St Ives - 24 August 2:30pm-3:30 pm

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW community transmission is not tracking well

30 since crossroads plus 1 under investigation
14 in the last 14 days

 

[Lynda2475]

Using hostpot controls rather than whole of state measure also means a lot less economic damage

GB has been clear that she will not consider LGA or suburb lockdowns, if tighter restrictions come in they will be greater Sydney as a whole or specific regions.

If you put greater Sydney into stage 4 you will not only kill the NSW economy (as greater Sydney accounts for 65% of NSW population and majority of NSW economic actvity), it will impact other states.

This is why restrictions need to be greater on specific venues and higher risk activities, rather than suburbs.

Lots of support on this thread for NZ going hard for round 2, they have tougher restrictions yet numbers are about same as NSW (even though national population only about 80% of NSW and they have not identified a source).

NSW spread has been by small numbers moving over large areas of the city wnd waiting longer than 3 days toget tested. Need to find better incentive for people to test earlier and make masks mandatory on all public transport and continue to police covid rules for venues.

Would great if there was a website where you could report breaches.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just so Wa don’t feel left out

Perth pub quarantine breach

ABC News reporter Eliza Borrello has tweeted that a COVID-19 breach shut down a Perth night spot last night.

Police cleared Hotel Northbridge, telling patrons to self-isolate and get a COVID test as soon as possible.

We'll get more on this soon.

 

[Pushka]

Also more unfair to not allow people in quarantine access to fresh air everyday - than lockdown 5m people. If peoplein quarantine had not been allowed to leave their rooms - or only leave every third day - exposure would have been significantly reduced. Less security guards would have been required. At one hotel they mentioned 70 guards congregated in a room. That’s a lot to have on duty at any one time!

And apparently the Vic budget was over blown by many millions, compared with other states who didnt depend on private security. And also heard this morning that the enquiry stated that Vic Health was in charge of all quarantine infection control. Which in reality means, infection spread.