Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

I may have missed how ‘recovered’ is actually determined.

Depends who you ask on the day... Our testing approach is very flawed, but the government wants that as they can then manipulate the data depending on the agenda of the day. Look at the reports today of "recovery" rates. Multiple sourced quote numbers between 400 and 3000.

In other reports that I got from NSW Health employees today... A ward in Sydney was closed last night to "reopen" on Tuesday due to low numbers. Staff (including RNs and intern Doctors) were told they could either "take annual leave or be stood down without pay". In what can only be described as an amazing cooincidence, this occured over the Easter long weekend and meant that all staff lost their planned public holiday pay.

I'm really not sure what is going on, but something stinks.

 

[drron]

They have got over the PPE problem but because all the staff of the Medical and Surgical wards of NWRH have been ordered into quarantine.151 staff are now in quarantine.
At the Mersey Hospital,Latrobe which I left 2 long months ago the ED hours have been reduced and inpatient admissions diverted to Launceston.

However the number of cases in the NWRH cluster are rising steadily and there has been a third death there.

Hospital outbreak jumps again

Eight of those are healthcare workers at the North West Regional and/or North West Private hospitals.

www.theadvocate.com.au

More than 100 additional North-West healthcare staff to go into quarantine

Chief Medical Officer Professor Tony Lawler said authorities had "potentially underestimated" the number of close contacts to known...

www.theadvocate.com.au

The Government has also taken over the North West Private Hospital.

'Extraordinary' steps taken at NW hospitals

Authorities "potentially underestimated" the number of close contacts to known cases.

www.theadvocate.com.au

The new Premier Peter Gutwein is doing a very good job.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It wasn't posted for the numbers. I know it's old. It was posted for the quote that it was too difficult to tell when a person has recovered. Despite acknowledging this they have criteria stating you are deemed to be recovered after 72 hours symptom free. The only way to tell is by testing but they don't allow you to have a test.

Recovery is one thing. The critical thing though for controlling virus spread is whether the person is still contagious or not.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While we all could come up with a criticism or fifty of how the feds or states in AU have handled or fumbled various aspects of this pandemic, and we all would have liked to be where Taiwan is at; comparatively things are pretty good here compared to lots of places.

Taiwanese Vice President Chen Chien-jen is a world renowned epidemiologist and so it is perhaps no surprise that they were so well prepared, and acted so quickly and so decisively.

I think where are at now with two days in a row of less than a 100 new cases and the trend being further decline is not just pretty good, but is sensational.

Australia 'on the cusp' of slowing coronavirus infections, Professor Paul Kelly says

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly says it is not the time to ease social distancing restrictions or leave the house for Easter, saying Australia is on the cusp of seeing the epidemic die out.

www.abc.net.au

Meanwhile, Australia could be "on the cusp" of slowing the infections of coronavirus to the point that the epidemic "dies out", Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has said.

Professor Kelly said the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19 was a key component in understanding how it spreads.

"Ideally where you want to be is below one, so less than one other person being infected after a person themselves had the infection," he said.

"And once you get to that point, the virus dies out, or the epidemic dies out. And so at the moment we're probably on the cusp of that in Australia."

But he stressed that such an outcome remained dependent on Australians continuing to follow the physical-distancing directives in place.

"This is not time for us to be changing the rules in terms of social distancing and the other things we've done in society over recent weeks," he said.

 

[p--and--t]

Taiwanese Vice President Chen Chien-jen is a world renowned epidemiologist and so it is perhaps no surprise that they were so well prepared, and acted so quickly and so decisively.

I think where are at now with two days in a row of less than a 100 new cases and the trend being further decline is not just pretty good, but is sensational.

Australia 'on the cusp' of slowing coronavirus infections, Professor Paul Kelly says

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly says it is not the time to ease social distancing restrictions or leave the house for Easter, saying Australia is on the cusp of seeing the epidemic die out.

www.abc.net.au

Meanwhile, Australia could be "on the cusp" of slowing the infections of coronavirus to the point that the epidemic "dies out", Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has said.

Professor Kelly said the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19 was a key component in understanding how it spreads.

"Ideally where you want to be is below one, so less than one other person being infected after a person themselves had the infection," he said.

"And once you get to that point, the virus dies out, or the epidemic dies out. And so at the moment we're probably on the cusp of that in Australia."

But he stressed that such an outcome remained dependent on Australians continuing to follow the physical-distancing directives in place.

"This is not time for us to be changing the rules in terms of social distancing and the other things we've done in society over recent weeks," he said.

Agree, doing very well and definitely not quite the right time yet to take the foot of the pedal.

Kill this thing off in AU and then create an infection free island where anyone entering goes into immediate gov mandated and supervised isolation for 14 days - no exceptions - until more than 60% the population is vaccinated or there is a very effective prophylactic.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well the Australian case rate will kick up soon when these cruise returnees fly back to Australia.

Nearly 60 percent of 217 people _ many from Australia, Europe and the United States _ on board a cruise ship off the coast of Uruguay have tested positive for the new coronavirus

Most people on Antarctica cruise ship have the coronavirus

Nearly 60 percent of 217 people _ many from Australia, Europe and the United States _ on board a cruise ship off the coast of Uruguay have tested positive for the new coronavirus

abcnews.go.com

The cruise only departed on 15 March! One has to wonder about people still boarding cruise ships that late in the piece.

Fortunately they will all go into quarantine and so hopefully will not infect anyone here in Australia.

 

[RooFlyer]

Case numbers expanding in Tasmania, centred on NW Regional Hospital staff & patients. 11 new cases yesterday, the highest new daily count, I think.

Eight new Tasmania COVID-19 cases North West healthcare staff

North West Tasmania has had 10 more people in the area diagnosed with cornonvirus since 6pm last night,...

www.examiner.com.au

 

[Pushka]

Well the Australian case rate will kick up soon when these cruise returnees fly back to Australia.

Nearly 60 percent of 217 people _ many from Australia, Europe and the United States _ on board a cruise ship off the coast of Uruguay have tested positive for the new coronavirus

Most people on Antarctica cruise ship have the coronavirus

Nearly 60 percent of 217 people _ many from Australia, Europe and the United States _ on board a cruise ship off the coast of Uruguay have tested positive for the new coronavirus

abcnews.go.com

The cruise only departed on 15 March! One has to wonder about people still boarding cruise ships that late in the piece.

Fortunately they will all go into quarantine and so hopefully will not infect anyone here in Australia.

Hopefully actions for Australians in general will not be based on those returning from overseas. It's likely there will be a spike. On the other hand, yesterday and next week being warm in Adelaide will see an increased use of our beaches. It's basically our back yard, the only place we can get outside. Everyone avoided the rural areas, including us not going down to our very isolated shack, only to be confronted by the masses right on our doorstep. People mostly managed the distance rule but lots of dodging needed. We didn't go for a walk until later in the day to avoid them.

 

[woodyren]

Recovery is one thing. The critical thing though for controlling virus spread is whether the person is still contagious or not.

True. Probably a poor choice of words on my part. My point still remains though. How do I know I am unable to spread the virus if they, under the current health policy, aren't retesting me to insure I have cleared the virus?

I was told that it was fine to leave isolation and it was only my due diligence and my doctor going outside the health policy to refer me for a retest that discovered 6 days after I was deemed clear that I was in fact still positive.

 

[tgh]

Woodyren's experience suggests that we do not yet have all our ducks in a row.
For such a serious situation , one hopes they are lined up neatly very soon.

Globally there is little information on post infection immunity.
The reinfection rate seems to be in the fingers crossed section of the management wish list.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Time

Hopefully actions for Australians in general will not be based on those returning from overseas. It's likely there will be a spike.

They know the cases are. So no.
All international returnees go into 14 day quarantine.

On the other hand, yesterday and next week being warm in Adelaide will see an increased use of our beaches. It's basically our back yard, the only place we can get outside.

? I assume you have streets? Most people are not within walking distance of a beach. Obviously lucky for you that you are. Though yes frustrating if closed. But with popular beaches it easy to get out of control.

Everyone avoided the rural areas, including us not going down to our very isolated shack, only to be confronted by the masses right on our doorstep. People mostly managed the distance rule but lots of dodging needed. We didn't go for a walk until later in the day to avoid them.

SA has the second highest rate for cases per 100,000 residents. So needs to be brought down still.

In theory open spaces like beaches should not a problem if everyone 1/ kept moving and 2/ maintained physical distancing and 3/ did not mingle except in family groups from the one household.

Even at my local parks (I am fortunate to be near several) I see all three breached, though fortunately numbers are low and so it probably is not too much of a problem

But with beaches being such a magnet, if they are an urban beach with many nearby the risk is high in that they get too popular and that people want to linger for hours if the weather is good. Obviously it easier for beaches to be open where the number of households within an walking distance is low.



PS: If our daily cases keep plummeting, beaches along with many other things may well be re-opened in the near future.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Globally there is little information on post infection immunity.
The reinfection rate seems to be in the fingers crossed section of the management wish list.

Yes it is not yet known.

I know that some on this forum have called for people to be deliberately infected, but while it is not known if people gain immunity or not from having had CV19 that would be a strategy that may gain little.

Also even if people are immune, it is also not yet known how long that immunity will actually last. It may be not at all. It may be for months, it may be for years. It simply is not yet known.

Even with immunity it is no ta strategy I would like to see Australia follow as it means willingly allowing 0.5-1% (-ish) of our population dying. Especially without proven effective treatments.

 

[Pushka]

Time




They know the cases are. So no.
All international returnees go into 14 day quarantine.



? I assume you have streets? Most people are not within walking distance of a beach. Obviously lucky for you that you are. Though yes frustrating if closed. But with popular beaches it easy to get out of control.



SA has the second highest rate for cases per 100,000 residents. So needs to be brought down still.

In theory open spaces like beaches should not a problem if everyone 1/ kept moving and 2/ maintained physical distancing and 3/ did not mingle except in family groups from the one household.

Even at my local parks (I am fortunate to be near several) I see all three breached, though fortunately numbers are low and so it probably is not too much of a problem

But with beaches being such a magnet, if they are an urban beach with many nearby the risk is high in that they get too popular and that people want to linger for hours if the weather is good. Obviously it easier for beaches to be open where the number of households within an walking distance is low.



PS: If our daily cases keep plummeting, beaches along with many other things may well be re-opened in the near future.

Yes we have streets. We have a back Street that is the only street we can use to get away from the beach. That is narrow and which you cannot keep walking as two people together at any time, let alone social distancing rules.

Our statistics in SA are overwhelmed by Ruby Princess (85 positives); the baggage handlers (over 20 I think now) and the Swiss and US tourists in the Barossa Valley. So all known and tracked clusters. Take them away and we would have had just 1 death and cases under 300. We have had very little community transmission. And we have the best rate per population of testing.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

True. Probably a poor choice of words on my part. My point still remains though. How do I know I am unable to spread the virus if they, under the current health policy, aren't retesting me to insure I have cleared the virus?

I was told that it was fine to leave isolation and it was only my due diligence and my doctor going outside the health policy to refer me for a retest that discovered 6 days after I was deemed clear that I was in fact still positive.

As I understand it, while there’s still no clear data showing just how long people who get COVID-19 are contagious, that the recommendation is that if:

• they’ve been fever-free for 72 hours,
• their other symptoms have improved,
• and it’s been at least seven days since they first felt sick.

ie You can still test positive, but not be contagious.

And if so being retested to show that you are no longer positive is not a test of whether you are contagious or not.

After recovering, COVID-19 patients struggle to know when to stop isolating

There’s not much data on how long someone stays contagious

www.theverge.com

 

[pauly7]

I know that some on this forum have called for people to be deliberately infected, but while it is not known if people gain immunity or not from having had CV19 that would be a strategy that may gain little.

I wonder if those same people would be be of the same ilk as Boris Johnson who walked around shaking infected patients hands, then ended up in ICU himself, after spreading it to colleagues

I suspect he will come out singing a different tune.... although knowing him he will probably say it was no big deal everyone should get it....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes we have streets. We have a back Street that is the only street we can use to get away from the beach. That is narrow and which you cannot keep walking as two people together at any time, let alone social distancing rules.

Our statistics in SA are overwhelmed by Ruby Princess (85 positives); the baggage handlers (over 20 I think now) and the Swiss and US tourists in the Barossa Valley. So all known and tracked clusters. Take them away and we would have had just 1 death and cases under 300. We have had very little community transmission. And we have the best rate per population of testing.

It is frustrating for us all. But our progress as a community has exceeded all expectations. So hopefully this will soon (May?) allow rules to be progressively relaxed in a staged manner and for many to also to be able to resume work.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I wonder if those same people would be be of the same ilk as Boris Johnson who walked around shaking infected patients hands, then ended up in ICU himself, after spreading it to colleagues

I suspect he will come out singing a different tune.... although knowing him he will probably say it was no big deal everyone should get it....

As more has become known I think we have all in the main started singing a different tune.

When things first started to mount I know that I still thought that I would be in Koh Samui over Easter.

 

[pauly7]

As more has become know I think we have all in the main started singing a different tune.

When things first started to mount I know that I still thought that I would be in Koh Samui over Easter.

I suppose working in and with healthcare professionals, this was all hitting me, my work and family all in January. I wonder if that means I get out of it faster too

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I suppose working in and with healthcare professionals, this was all hitting me, my work and family all in January. I wonder if that means I get out of it faster too

Yes leading up to Labour Day Weekend I knew I was not going. Until then I was kind of hoping that it would not spread into the tropics, or that it may be contained. And yes with a daughter who works in a Respiratory Ward I too was also aware early on that they were preparing for a surge. Fortunately that surge has only been a ripple (when compared to say the seasonal flu) so far here in Australia. But we only have to look overseas to know the huge wave that it could have been.

 

[pauly7]

Yes by Australia Day I knew I was not going. And yes with a daughter who works in a Respiratory Ward I too was also aware early on that they were preparing for a surge. Fortunately that surge has only been a ripple (when compared to say the seasonal flu) so far here in Australia. But we only have to look overseas to know the huge wave that it could have been.

One silver lining related to the Australian spread of ‘regular old influenza’ is that so many people are being vaccinated it is incredible.

Really positive as we hit the winter months as the symptoms from corona are very similar to regular flu/colds - a large group of people immunised will really help our healthcare system.

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?