Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

It is frustrating for us all. But our progress as a community has exceeded all expectations. So hopefully this will soon (May?) allow rules to be progressively relaxed in a staged manner and for many to also to be able to resume work.

We work in a business that evaporated literally overnight. It will take around 3 months, once it's over, to know whether it is going to be viable. July is looking grim.

I had the flu shot the day it became available. Checked in at the pharmac_ last week to pick up a script and they said they'd run out with no supplies due until May.

 

[drron]

Yes it is not yet known.

I know that some on this forum have called for people to be deliberately infected, but while it is not known if people gain immunity or not from having had CV19 that would be a strategy that may gain little.

Also even if people are immune, it is also not yet known how long that immunity will actually last. It may be not at all. It may be for months, it may be for years. It simply is not yet known.

Even with immunity it is no ta strategy I would like to see Australia follow as it means willingly allowing 0.5-1% (-ish) of our population dying. Especially without proven effective treatments.

No it is 0.5-1% of people who catch Covid who will die.Not the total Aussie population.Even letting the virus go wild it will not infect 100% of the population.
The Oxford study which originally projected 250000 deaths in the UK from covid also suggested that 60-70% of those that die of Covid would not have survived the year if the pandemic had not occurred.
So it is not black and white but several shades of gray.

Also of note from the ABS in 2018 3102 people died of influenza.Median age-89.3
But 3046 died by Intentional Harm.Median age 44.4.

Causes of Death, Australia, 2023

Statistics on the number of deaths, by sex, selected age groups, and cause of death classified to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)

www.abs.gov.au

 

[Pushka]

No it is 0.5-1% of people who catch Covid who will die.Not the total Aussie population.Even letting the virus go wild it will not infect 100% of the population.
The Oxford study which originally projected 250000 deaths in the UK from covid also suggested that 60-70% of those that die of Covid would not have survived the year if the pandemic had not occurred.
So it is not black and white but several shades of gray.

Also of note from the ABS in 2018 3102 people died of influenza.Median age-89.3
But 3046 died by Intentional Harm.Median age 44.4.

Causes of Death, Australia, 2023

Statistics on the number of deaths, by sex, selected age groups, and cause of death classified to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)

www.abs.gov.au

I also read (maybe on AFF) that until recently the average age of those dying from Covid in Australia was 84 years. The average life expectancy of Australians was 83 years.
The issue is that the Health systems would be totally overwhelmed so really it's the management of the health resourcing sector thats at play here.

 

[pauly7]

We work in a business that evaporated literally overnight. It will take around 3 months, once it's over, to know whether it is going to be viable. July is looking grim.

I had the flu shot the day it became available. Checked in at the pharmac_ last week to pick up a script and they said they'd run out with no supplies due until May.

pharmac_ are on different fulfilment patterns to GPs, if you don’t want to wait that long you can go there.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One silver lining related to the Australian spread of ‘regular old influenza’ is that so many people are being vaccinated it is incredible.

That plus physical distancing, hand-washing etc ate all equally effective at suppressing the flu, and even common cold.

It has already been mentioned by health officials that one reason that there has been less people seeking CV19 tests now is that their are less people who have flu and cold symptoms, and so hence less people who are fearful that they may in fact have CV19.

Really positive as we hit the winter months as the symptoms from corona are very similar to regular flu/colds - a large group of people immunised will really help our healthcare system.

It will be very interesting exactly how low it drops. We can see how radically it has reduced CV19. So the flu may well never now really get going in Australia this flu season. Ironically though if CV19 continues to plummet here is Australia then in May we may well start to a staged resumption to work etc, which may then allow the flu to spread.

Though hopefully with better handwashing, no or less handshaking and people still being wary with physical distancing the flu may struggle to spread widely.

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?

Yes. March 31. We booked in early as we wanted it originally before we were due to travel.

 

[serfty]

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?

I got a prescription from my doctor in early March and gave it to my Pharmacist. He called at the beginning of April to say the shipment had come in and he was keeping a dose for me. I picked it up and went to see my Doctor.

SWMBO is eligible for the 'free' vaccination - her doctor has not yet received any.

 

[RooFlyer]

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?

Yes, 10 days ago. The ‘quad’ from my GP’s nurse, $16.50.

I overheard in my local pharmac_ a couple of days ago that they were out, awaiting resupply.

 

[woodyren]

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?

I plan to as soon as I clear COVID-19 and am released from isolation.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No it is 0.5-1% of people who catch Covid who will die.Not the total Aussie population.Even letting the virus go wild it will not infect 100% of the population.
The Oxford study which originally projected 250000 deaths in the UK from covid also suggested that 60-70% of those that die of Covid would not have survived the year if the pandemic had not occurred.
So it is not black and white but several shades of gray.

Also of note from the ABS in 2018 3102 people died of influenza.Median age-89.3
But 3046 died by Intentional Harm.Median age 44.4.

Causes of Death, Australia, 2023

Statistics on the number of deaths, by sex, selected age groups, and cause of death classified to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)

www.abs.gov.au

True, but it is still a lot of additional deaths.

I think the 60-70% is probably an over-estimation though.

 

[Pushka]

pharmac_ are on different fulfilment patterns to GPs, if you don’t want to wait that long you can go there.

All good, had it done 2 weeks ago.

 

[serfty]

pharmac_ are on different fulfilment patterns to GPs, if you don’t want to wait that long you can go there.

As above, I had the vaccination via my Pharmacist a week ago.

SWMBO is eligible for the 'free' vaccination - her doctor has not yet received any.

 

[Antoallison]

Both my husband and I were booked in for the flu shot Friday 3rd April at our GP surgery in WA.

I was called in first, told that there was no booking for my husband due to a mix up. All the staff looked worried and flustered. Apparently they ordered 1,000 vaccines - but only 500 were delivered. No date on when they could get in more stock.

Seeing as he has medical conditions that make him more at risk each winter, I said he better have mine.

Hopefully they will get another delivery of the Quad vaccine after Easter.
I am relatively healthy and basically isolating at home, so not a big worry.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I was called in first, told that there was no booking for my husband due to a mix up. All the staff looked worried and flustered. Apparently they ordered 1,000 vaccines - but only 500 were delivered. No date on when they could get in more stock.

I know when my wife and I had ours on 31 March at Chemist Warehouse (their second day of injections) that I asked the nurse if people could drop in and have the shot that she stated that they were not accepting any walk ins as they had only had enough delivered for the people booked in till mid-April, though she hoped that another delivery would arrive before not too long.

 

[jase05]

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?

Yes, work organised free shots for last Tuesday and Wednesday

 

[pauly7]

As above, I had the vaccination via my Pharmacist a week ago.

SWMBO is eligible for the 'free' vaccination - her doctor has not yet received any.

The deliveries are hard for doctors to manage. Some clinics are getting daily deliveries, of 75% of what they ordered so it makes it hard for them to manage patient appointments.

 

[DC3]

The deliveries are hard for doctors to manage. Some clinics are getting daily deliveries, of 75% of what they ordered so it makes it hard for them to manage patient appointments.

... SWMBO is eligible for the 'free' vaccination - her doctor has not yet received any.

My doctor said that they are not getting advanced notification of fluvax deliveries. It just turns up unannounced.

 

[pauly7]

My doctor said that they are not getting advanced notification of fluvax deliveries. It just turns up unannounced.

To complicate further there’s two different batches being sent out as well - for private $ purchase and government funded.

There isn’t any shortage of the vaccine it’s just like the panic hoarding situation, demand is overwhelming early supply (a good problem).

Really pleased that everyone on AFF is getting vaccinated early - gold stars!

Now just need someone from Byron to start an anti vax conversation

 

[p--and--t]

Have people been vaccinated yet on here?

Had mine 18th March. Had contacted a couple of chemists and GPs and went to the first one who had supplies. Expected a rush and wanted to make sure I got one. My usual GP still doesn't have supplies yet.

 

[woodyren]

As I understand it, while there’s still no clear data showing just how long people who get COVID-19 are contagious, that the recommendation is that if:

• they’ve been fever-free for 72 hours,
• their other symptoms have improved,
• and it’s been at least seven days since they first felt sick.

ie You can still test positive, but not be contagious.

And if so being retested to show that you are no longer positive is not a test of whether you are contagious or not.

After recovering, COVID-19 patients struggle to know when to stop isolating

There’s not much data on how long someone stays contagious

www.theverge.com

I understand all of that as I have been through the criteria and policy many times. Issues with both work and personal thoughts required me to do so.

So I still have a question because as you stated we don have data on when someone is no longer contagious. Even knowing that people can still test positive and not be contagious is little help.

The only thing we are likely to have some certainty about is that if people test negative they are not contagious.

So again ....Why are we not retesting positive cases before we release them ?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So again ....Why are we not retesting positive cases before we release them ?

Well the quick answer is that they believe that they are not contagious and that the number of tests are in short supply.

I would guess it is as the tests are still quite limited and they judge while there is a shortage that the tests are better used elsewhere. ie someone who may be actively contagious or thought likely to be contagious. I assume they are playing the probabilities.

In an ideal world yes such tests should be done, and lots of other testing should be done. But we are not in an ideal world and the supply of tests is less than they would prefer.

In Italy they had to make the call on who got a ventilator. Often in life people have to make choices when demand exceeds supply.